411
FXUS64 KEWX 161834
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
134 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry rest of today with breezy and gusty conditions

- Isolated storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening

- A wet pattern awaits for the work week. Heavy rain could lead to
  localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A warm and dry weather day is anticipated across South Central
Texas. Forecast highs ranging from the upper 80s across the Hill
Country to lower and mid 90s across the I-35 corridor, the Rio
Grande and Coastal Plains areas. Increased moisture from the Gulf
arriving to South Central Texas this afternoon to help feel-like
temperatures a few degrees higher than the ambient temperatures
which means upper 90s to 100 for portions of the Rio Grande
Plains. Latest satellite images show scattered clouds across the
eastern part of the local area while the Southern Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande Plains are under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. By
late afternoon, partly cloudy skies are forecast for most
locations. by the way, one thing to help these feel-like
temperatures is the southerly breezes and gusty wind conditions
forecast throughout the day and night. Overnight lows are forecast
to range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country and parts of
the Southern Edwards Plateau to the lower and mid 70s across the
rest of the local area. Increased cloud cover returns over the
local area this evening into Sunday morning with cloudy skies most
locations. The breezy conditions overnight into Sunday morning
are forecast to limit fog development across the local area on
Sunday morning, however, can`t totally rule out a few spots with
patchy fog across the Coastal Plains around daybreak.

Cloudy skies are in store for most of the local area Sunday. High
temperatures very similar of today ranging from the upper 80s to
upper 90s areawide. However, increased Gulf moisture continues to
travel into South Central Texas with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. This is going to assist the feel-like temperatures to get
into the mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains,
and up to 105 over parts of the Rio Grande Plains. In addition to
these warm conditions, there is a slight chance for showers and
storms along and east of Interstate 35 late afternoon into the
evening. Even though forecast soundings show a moderate to strong
cap, any ripples within the southwest flow aloft associated with the
upper level short wave moving across the Southern Plains could
weaken it, opening the door for an isolated storm or two. The other
thing that the forecast soundings reveal is the inverted V-shape
profiles which represent strong winds traveling down to the surface
with any downdraft that manages to develop. Also, pwats are
elevated, ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches which could result in a
quick heavy downpours with highest rainfall accumulations of quarter
to an inch in an hour. And if nothing happens as far as shower/storm
activity Sunday, a wet pattern is shaping for the work week. See
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Monday`s weather forecast calls for even warmer temperatures than
this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s most places and
getting into the 100 mark over portions of the Rio Grande Plains.
With increased moisture in place and dewpoints in the lower 70s for
many locations, feel-like temperatures between the upper 90s to 106
are anticipated along and east of I-35 corridor and 100 to 107 over
the Rio Grande Plains. As far as shower/storm activity, things are
quiet as a strong cap holds, but if for some reason weakens, the a
few strong storms could be possible with strong winds reaching the
ground.

From Tuesday into Wednesday time frame is where the weather pattern
get interesting as a dryline sits over west Texas and a cold front
over north central Texas advances to the south. We may see some
storms developing along the dryline and then moving east into the
Rio Grande Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The other area that
could see some storms is along and east of I-35 corridor where pwats
are around 1.7 to 2.0 inches based on GFS values. During the
afternoon on Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to be nearby the
Hill Country and then pushing over that area in the evening based on
GFS guidance. The 00Z ECMWF model package has a similar approach of
the cold front. The upper level support solutions are a bit
different with the passing short waves/disturbances through the
period with the long wave axis moving over the northwest Pacific and
extending into southern California. The long wave deepens as it
moves across the Rockies and four corners region and into the
Southern Plains on Thursday with the lingering frontal boundary
across South Central Texas. There are signals that Thursday could
be the day with the more intense rains. The wet pattern continues
into Friday as upper level disturbances move over central Texas.

In summary, a wet weather pattern awaits for the work week
especially Wednesday through Thursday with rounds of showers and
storms on Friday into next weekend. Some areas could get several
inches of rainfall through this period leading to localized
flooding. More details will be shared in future weather packages
as the event unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Gusty prevailing southerly flow with sustained winds of 10-16 kt
regionwide will continue through the rest of the day and through
the night into tomorrow. Residual MVFR cloud deck at KDRT/KECU and
vicinity should break up today, but humid air will bring another
push of MVFR CIGs tonight before CIGs break apart again tomorrow
afternoon. Continued breezes will tend to reduce likelihood of
lowered VSBYs and IFR CIGs, but intermittent and brief periods of
DZ or BR can`t be ruled out at the I-35 sites around 11Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  91  78  92 /  10  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  92  79  93 /  10  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  91  78  92 /   0  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  86  75  88 /   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  97  78  99 /   0   0  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  90  77  91 /  10  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  91  78  92 /   0  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  92  78  93 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  91  79  91 /  10  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  91  78  92 /   0  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  92  79  93 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Tran