Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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315
FXUS64 KEWX 030503
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1203 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

A small complex of storms that originated in Mexico yesterday
evening overachieved this morning, developing an MCV that allowed it
to sustain itself eastward into Uvalde, Medina and Bandera counties,
with only the 02/00Z ARW coming close to showing this. Some
impressive rainfall totals occurred from southern Kinney County
through central and northern Uvalde County, where a swath of 2-6
inches of rainfall was observed. What is left of the small cluster
of storms is lifting into Kendall County. There have been recent
indications on satellite of warming cloud tops, on radar shrinking
aerial size of heavier rainfall, and a decrease in lightning
activity. A weakening trend is forecast through the remainder of the
afternoon. Elsewhere, isolated showers and storms are forecast
through sunset, with a temporary lull in activity after sunset.

As the low level jet increases overnight and into Sunday morning re-
development of isolated to widely scattered streamer showers is
forecast during this time. The better forcing during the day on
Sunday will be located north of the area, and with the exception of
stray to isolated showers most locations will remain dry Sunday.
Breezy southerly winds developing overnight and Sunday, with gusts
around 35 mph forecast during the day on Sunday across the Hill
Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. Warmer on Sunday,
with a potential for daily near-record max temperatures and daily

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

A storm system moving from the Four Corners through the Central
Plains helps to send a cold front across South-Central Texas from
late Monday through Monday night. This front trends a bit stronger
than the previous one as it`s upper level support is better and
farther south with this event. Some isolated to scattered pre-
frontal convection could develop followed by the primary round of
convection immediately along the front, with the event possibly
evolving into a squall line. Enough ingredients are in play with
1000 to 1500 J/kg of instability and up to 35 to 45 knots of deep
layer shear for some isolated severe weather. The Day 3 convective
outlook from SPC highlights a level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather
as far south as the Austin metro area while the level 1 of 5 risk
reaches southward to the Fredericksburg to Boerne to Cuero line.
Rain and storm chances will likely wane towards early Tuesday
morning but a few of the medium range guidance shows some post-
frontal activity holding together beyond sunrise. Otherwise, the
forecast dries out for the rest of Tuesday.

A drier, cooler, and more seasonable airmass featuring north-
northeasterly winds then prevails through Wednesday morning. The
afternoon highs for Tuesday with skies clearing mainly top out in
the low to mid 70s. The overnight lows through Wednesday morning
then bottom out in the mid 40s to the low 50s. Southerly winds
return as soon as late on Wednesday as the surface boundary will
retreat northward as a warm front in response to the next storm
system moving into the Four Corners region. This will lend into a
more humid and slightly warmer weather regime from Thursday into
early Friday across the region. Additionally, low end (20-30%)
chances for rain will return with the southerly moist, warm air
advection. As the next storm system advances eastward into the
southern plains, it will help to push the next front across the
region sometime late in the forecast period (sometime around late
Friday into early Saturday). Models are inconsistent with this
front`s timing as the NBM continues to hold PoPs at or below 15
percent during that time but additional rain chances could be
inserted into the forecast in subsequent forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024

MVFR ceilings have returned to I-35 terminals for the start of the
period with MVFR to IFR ceilings eventually making it to DRT around
08Z. Ceilings will linger through Sunday morning before all sites
return to VFR conditions Sunday afternoon. A few light showers or
drizzle will be possible across the area near sunrise but confidence
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty southeasterly
wind will continue before first decreasing across the west this
afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings will return late tonight into Monday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  72  84  60 /  30  20  60  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  72  85  59 /  30  20  60  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  72  87  62 /  30  20  40  80
Burnet Muni Airport            85  70  80  56 /  30  20  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  70  86  60 /  40  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  71  82  57 /  30  20  70  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  70  87  59 /  30  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  71  85  59 /  30  20  50  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  72  87  63 /  30  20  60  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  73  85  62 /  30  20  30  70
Stinson Muni Airport           88  74  88  64 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...27