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000
FXUS64 KEWX 120752
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Status Quo for today. Subtropical ridging centered nearby maintains
a dry subsident airmass aloft with no rain expected. Surface low
pressure in the Great Plains maintains a humid south-southeasterly
lower level flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico and its sea surface
temperatures in the mid 80s. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal with afternoon heat index values only mildly
elevated.

On Sunday, the Subtropical ridging drifts to the northwest allowing
a northerly flow aloft. This may allow a surface boundary to sag
south into our area. With a little less subsidence, though a still
moist airmass, weak upward forcing by the boundary and solar heating
may result in very isolated showers and thunderstorms. There are
some Hi-res models that show a few showers and thunderstorms over
the Hill Country to along the Escarpment where forcing is enhanced
by upslope flow. However, most other models show nothing at all. For
now, will increase POPs a little for Sunday afternoon, however not
enough to mention precipitation. Later forecasts will monitor trends
for possible mention. Not much change in temperatures is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Hot and humid conditions persist. The upper ridge dominating the area
will shift west monday allowing for a weak boundary to move into the
eastern part of the state. Afternoon showers will be more limited to
areas east of our CWA, but a few sprinkles in our farthest counties
will not be out of the question. Little to no change in temperatures
through the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and overnight
lows in the mid 70s.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  74  95  76  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  73  94  74  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  96  74  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  76 101  76 101 /   0   0  -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  74  94 /   0   0  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             96  72  97  73  97 /   0   0  10  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  94  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  94  76  96 /  -    0  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  73  97  76  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  96  76  98 /   0   0  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...YB