724
FXUS64 KEWX 150534
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered convection this afternoon/early evening and
again on Sunday.

Convection ongoing across the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor
will continue and gradually spread westward. We expect to see new
convective development to the west of where storms are ongoing as a
westward moving outflow boundary helps to initiate additional
showers and storms. This includes the I-35 corridor into portions of
the Hill Country. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds and frequent
lightning strikes. Some minor flooding may also develop especially
over the coastal plains of Karnes, DeWitt and Lavaca counties where
some notable rainfall totals have occurred as of late. We should see
a gradual decrease in the coverage of showers and storm through the
early evening hours as daytime heating ends.

On Sunday, we expect to see a similar weather pattern develop with
convection initially developing over the coastal plains, then
gradually spreading westward into the I-35 corridor, Hill Country
and possibly as far west as portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau. Temperatures on Sunday will range from near 100 degrees
along the Rio Grande to the lower 90s in the Hill Country. Some
highs may stay down in the lower 90s over the coastal plains if
precipitation and cloud cover develop as expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key Messages:

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions expected through next week.

- Ridging remains west of the area, allowing periodic rain and storm
  chances to move in behind north to northwesterly flow aloft.

Mid-level ridging will remain close enough influence our sensible
weather through the start of the upcoming week. Temperatures will
warm into the mid to upper 90s outside of the Rio Grande Plains
where highs will top out in the 100-105 range through Wednesday.
With our recent rains adding copious amounts of moisture to the
soil, evapotranspiration will result in sticky/humid conditions this
week, particularly in the mornings. Afternoons should see enough
mixing out that heat indices remain in check.

By mid to late week, a slightly more active pattern looks to return
as both GFS/ECMWF operational and ensembles indicate northerly to
northeasterly flow aloft bringing the storm track back into South
Central Texas. The seabreeze should also be a bit more active by
late week as well, resulting in a return to rain and storm chances
each day Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

MVFR CIGs over the I-35 sites will spread to KDRT by 09Z. Clouds mix
to VFR by midday on Sunday. SHRA/TSRa will develop with heating or
from a southward moving boundary in the afternoon into early evening.
Have introduced PROB30s at the I-35 sites. Brief reductions to
CIGs/VSBYs are possible in SHRA/TSRA. MVFR CIGs return Sunday night.
S to SE winds prevail becoming breezy with mixing daytime through
evening hours. VRBL wind direction with gusts to 35 KTs or so are
possible near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  93  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  73  94 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  94  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  93  74  95 /  10  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  90  75  93 /  10  30   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  75  95 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  75  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...04