Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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315 FXUS64 KEWX 030503 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1203 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 A small complex of storms that originated in Mexico yesterday evening overachieved this morning, developing an MCV that allowed it to sustain itself eastward into Uvalde, Medina and Bandera counties, with only the 02/00Z ARW coming close to showing this. Some impressive rainfall totals occurred from southern Kinney County through central and northern Uvalde County, where a swath of 2-6 inches of rainfall was observed. What is left of the small cluster of storms is lifting into Kendall County. There have been recent indications on satellite of warming cloud tops, on radar shrinking aerial size of heavier rainfall, and a decrease in lightning activity. A weakening trend is forecast through the remainder of the afternoon. Elsewhere, isolated showers and storms are forecast through sunset, with a temporary lull in activity after sunset. As the low level jet increases overnight and into Sunday morning re- development of isolated to widely scattered streamer showers is forecast during this time. The better forcing during the day on Sunday will be located north of the area, and with the exception of stray to isolated showers most locations will remain dry Sunday. Breezy southerly winds developing overnight and Sunday, with gusts around 35 mph forecast during the day on Sunday across the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. Warmer on Sunday, with a potential for daily near-record max temperatures and daily && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 A storm system moving from the Four Corners through the Central Plains helps to send a cold front across South-Central Texas from late Monday through Monday night. This front trends a bit stronger than the previous one as it`s upper level support is better and farther south with this event. Some isolated to scattered pre- frontal convection could develop followed by the primary round of convection immediately along the front, with the event possibly evolving into a squall line. Enough ingredients are in play with 1000 to 1500 J/kg of instability and up to 35 to 45 knots of deep layer shear for some isolated severe weather. The Day 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights a level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather as far south as the Austin metro area while the level 1 of 5 risk reaches southward to the Fredericksburg to Boerne to Cuero line. Rain and storm chances will likely wane towards early Tuesday morning but a few of the medium range guidance shows some post- frontal activity holding together beyond sunrise. Otherwise, the forecast dries out for the rest of Tuesday. A drier, cooler, and more seasonable airmass featuring north- northeasterly winds then prevails through Wednesday morning. The afternoon highs for Tuesday with skies clearing mainly top out in the low to mid 70s. The overnight lows through Wednesday morning then bottom out in the mid 40s to the low 50s. Southerly winds return as soon as late on Wednesday as the surface boundary will retreat northward as a warm front in response to the next storm system moving into the Four Corners region. This will lend into a more humid and slightly warmer weather regime from Thursday into early Friday across the region. Additionally, low end (20-30%) chances for rain will return with the southerly moist, warm air advection. As the next storm system advances eastward into the southern plains, it will help to push the next front across the region sometime late in the forecast period (sometime around late Friday into early Saturday). Models are inconsistent with this front`s timing as the NBM continues to hold PoPs at or below 15 percent during that time but additional rain chances could be inserted into the forecast in subsequent forecast packages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024 MVFR ceilings have returned to I-35 terminals for the start of the period with MVFR to IFR ceilings eventually making it to DRT around 08Z. Ceilings will linger through Sunday morning before all sites return to VFR conditions Sunday afternoon. A few light showers or drizzle will be possible across the area near sunrise but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty southeasterly wind will continue before first decreasing across the west this afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings will return late tonight into Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 72 84 60 / 30 20 60 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 72 85 59 / 30 20 60 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 72 87 62 / 30 20 40 80 Burnet Muni Airport 85 70 80 56 / 30 20 70 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 70 86 60 / 40 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 71 82 57 / 30 20 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 86 70 87 59 / 30 20 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 71 85 59 / 30 20 50 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 72 87 63 / 30 20 60 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 73 85 62 / 30 20 30 70 Stinson Muni Airport 88 74 88 64 / 30 20 30 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...27