Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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844 FXUS64 KEWX 311926 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 226 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 At 2 PM the weak cold front stretched from just south of Del Rio to San Antonio to near Schulenburg. Along and just behind the front showers have been very isolated and brief. Better coverage of showers is located across far southeastern counties of the Coastal Plains. A decrease in shower activity is forecast this evening, as the front stalls stalls over southern areas of the CWA. Re- development of isolated widely scattered showers are then forecast overnight into Friday morning across southern areas along the front. The front is then forecast to lift back north Friday afternoon. As this happens Friday and Friday night low level moisture will gradually increase across the region while winds turn back to the east and southeast. Isolated to widely scattered showers are forecast Friday into Friday night, but difficult to pinpoint exact locations. Temperatures tonight cooler north of the cold front compared to last night, where lows are forecast to be generally in the 60s. South of the front, lows in the lower 70s are forecast. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the Hill Country to mid 80s across the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Despite a cold front moving through on Thursday, the boundary will become stationary this weekend, setting the stage for a slightly more unsettled weather pattern. Low to medium chances for rain showers, along with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms will be in place Saturday through Sunday, with the better chance coming Saturday afternoon. It must be said that any plans should be kept in place as any showers or storms would be brief and rather light. In addition to the rain chance, southerly surface winds will ramp up Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday as low level flow increases ahead of the next storm system. Temperatures will still be well-above normal, in the 80s both days, but changes are on the horizon for the first full week of November. On Monday, we`ll turn our attention to the west, as a strong 500mb trough pushes through the Texas Panhandle late Monday into early early Tuesday. Out ahead of this trough, strong southwesterly flow aloft of 70-80 kts, along with 30-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and modest SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early evening as a cold front moves into South Central Texas. Model forecast soundings, along with global ensemble guidance, support a favorable environment for strong storms, particularly if the front moves through in the late afternoon hours during peak heating. SPC does have a day 5 risk area in place just north of our CWA and that could be expanded south in time. Once this next front moves through, it "should" have cooler air and more of a push behind it than this most recent front, with mornings back to a more Fall- like feel. By late in the week, another strong storm system will approach from the west, bringing what may be our strongest front of the season so far. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 At 1730Z a cold front stretched west to east from near DRT to between SAT and AUS. The front will continue south through the afternoon, with a N to NE wind developing behind it. Brief isolated showers are also occurring along and just behind the front. Ceilings are rising behind the front, and will scatter out through the mid and late afternoon at most locations. The front will stall this evening to the south, then work back north on Friday. MVFR ceilings developing early Friday morning with isolated SHRAs as this happens. Some IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast over the Coastal Plains between 09Z-15Z Friday, where fog develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 81 69 83 / 20 40 40 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 83 68 84 / 20 40 40 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 83 70 86 / 20 40 30 40 Burnet Muni Airport 61 78 68 81 / 20 40 40 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 82 71 85 / 20 30 40 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 81 68 83 / 20 40 40 50 Hondo Muni Airport 68 83 69 84 / 20 40 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 82 68 84 / 20 40 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 83 70 83 / 20 40 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 83 71 85 / 20 40 30 30 Stinson Muni Airport 69 84 72 86 / 20 40 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...76