Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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844
FXUS64 KEWX 311926
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
226 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

At 2 PM the weak cold front stretched from just south of Del Rio to
San Antonio to near Schulenburg. Along and just behind the front
showers have been very isolated and brief. Better coverage of
showers is located across far southeastern counties of the Coastal
Plains. A decrease in shower activity is forecast this evening, as
the front stalls stalls over southern areas of the CWA. Re-
development of isolated widely scattered showers are then forecast
overnight into Friday morning across southern areas along the front.
The front is then forecast to lift back north Friday afternoon. As
this happens Friday and Friday night low level moisture will
gradually increase across the region while winds turn back to the
east and southeast. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
forecast Friday into Friday night, but difficult to pinpoint
exact locations. Temperatures tonight cooler north of the cold
front compared to last night, where lows are forecast to be
generally in the 60s. South of the front, lows in the lower 70s are
forecast. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from the
upper 70s across the Hill Country to mid 80s across the Coastal
Plains and Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Despite a cold front moving through on Thursday, the boundary will
become stationary this weekend, setting the stage for a slightly
more unsettled weather pattern. Low to medium chances for rain
showers, along with a low chance for isolated thunderstorms will be
in place Saturday through Sunday, with the better chance coming
Saturday afternoon. It must be said that any plans should be kept in
place as any showers or storms would be brief and rather light. In
addition to the rain chance, southerly surface winds will ramp up
Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday as low level flow
increases ahead of the next storm system. Temperatures will still be
well-above normal, in the 80s both days, but changes are on the
horizon for the first full week of November.

On Monday, we`ll turn our attention to the west, as a strong 500mb
trough pushes through the Texas Panhandle late Monday into early
early Tuesday. Out ahead of this trough, strong southwesterly flow
aloft of 70-80 kts, along with 30-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and
modest SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg could lead to some strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early evening as a cold front
moves into South Central Texas. Model forecast soundings, along with
global ensemble guidance, support a favorable environment for strong
storms, particularly if the front moves through in the late
afternoon hours during peak heating. SPC does have a day 5 risk area
in place just north of our CWA and that could be expanded south in
time. Once this next front moves through, it "should" have cooler
air and more of a push behind it than this most recent front, with
mornings back to a more Fall- like feel. By late in the week, another
strong storm system will approach from the west, bringing what may
be our strongest front of the season so far.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

At 1730Z a cold front stretched west to east from near DRT to
between SAT and AUS. The front will continue south through the
afternoon, with a N to NE wind developing behind it. Brief isolated
showers are also occurring along and just behind the front. Ceilings
are rising behind the front, and will scatter out through the mid and
late afternoon at most locations. The front will stall this evening
to the south, then work back north on Friday. MVFR ceilings
developing early Friday morning with isolated SHRAs as this happens.
Some IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast over the Coastal Plains
between 09Z-15Z Friday, where fog develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  81  69  83 /  20  40  40  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  83  68  84 /  20  40  40  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  83  70  86 /  20  40  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            61  78  68  81 /  20  40  40  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  82  71  85 /  20  30  40  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  81  68  83 /  20  40  40  50
Hondo Muni Airport             68  83  69  84 /  20  40  40  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  82  68  84 /  20  40  40  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  83  70  83 /  20  40  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  83  71  85 /  20  40  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           69  84  72  86 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76