698
FXUS64 KEWX 161826
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
126 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Coastal Plains
  into this evening with pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly
  rain rates possible.

- Hazardous heat is possible later this week, especially on
  Thursday. Practice heat safety.

- Dry weather returns midweek for most of South Central Texas
  before chances return Friday and this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The tropical disturbance (recently designated Potential Tropical
Cyclone One) that helped to supply the anomalous moisture across the
region over the past few days was centered along the South Texas
coast as of 1 PM CDT Tuesday and is presently drifting generally
northeast towards the Gulf. The strong onshore flow of moisture over
the eastern half of the low-pressure area is helping to drive a few
tropical rainbands into the Coastal Plains, and a Flood Watch
remains in effect for some of our Coastal Plains counties through 7
PM today with the potential of locally heavier rain amounts up to
around 4 inches. To the west, northerly flow associated with a ridge
centered over the SW US is helping to act as a western boundary to
this moisture, and this is depicted well on ALPW imagery as drier
mid-level air spreads across West and Central Texas. A few tropical
showers may reach as far inland as the I-35 corridor with the aid of
daytime heating as some low-level moisture slips beneath the ridging
aloft, but this should fizzle out in the evening. The plume of
moisture will continue to move east outside of our area as the
tropical disturbance continues eastward, eventually bringing the
heavy rain threat to an end tonight.

On Wednesday, drier mid-level air should funnel southward across the
area, carried by north winds aloft rearward of the outgoing PTC One.
Sunnier skies, particularly over the western half of our warning
area, will support a warmer day with highs generally in the 90s. A
few spots along the Rio Grande could get close to 100, while
stickier clouds over the Coastal Plains trailing the nearby
tropical system should keep some areas from rising above the 80s.
Despite the overall drier conditions, the persistence of southerly
low-level flow and the lack of a stronger trough nearby means
high dew points will remain in our area, leading to heat indices
during the day Wednesday to push into the 100-105F range for much
of South-Central Texas. Evapotranspiration from recent rains will
likely contribute to this humid heat. A few locations along the
Rio Grande may see heat indices briefly approaching the 110F mark
late afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thursday is on track to be the hottest day of the week over
South-Central Texas, and potentially the hottest day of the
summer so far for portions of the Edwards Plateau and along the
Rio Grande. Troughing over the northern tier of CONUS is forecast
to dislodge a lobe of warm air aloft from the Rockies, reaching
our area during the day. Beneath this air, a thermal low will
increase humid southerly flow over South-Central Texas, resulting
in a strong overlap of heat and high humidity leading to
potentially hazardous conditions. Heat indices are expected to
rise sharply Thursday afternoon, reaching as high as as the 105 to
115 range for much of South-Central Texas. The issuance of a Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for Thursday as the resulting heat
risk reaches Major levels. Practice heat safety and make sure you
have ready access to cooling and hydration.

The hot airmass becomes a little more diffuse Friday, but the day
should still be quite hot and may also necessitate a Heat Advisory
with the current blend of models still showing heat indices in spots
in the 105 to 115 range, though not as widespread as Thursday. The
medium range guidance is in fairly decent agreement that a weak
disturbance aloft or residual shower/storm activity from a
convective outflow boundary or front will approach the area from the
north on Friday, leading to an increase in rain chances. Despite
ridging expanding over our area, a mid-level trough could bring
isolated to scattered rain and storm chances this weekend, and some
of this rain could be heavy as filaments of tropical moisture
continue to stick around.

Early next week, a broader shift to more zonal flow should set up a
drier weather pattern. Hot weather is expected to continue through
the forecast period, and without any convincing wind shift to clear
out the moisture, a prolonged period of persistent heat near or at
hazardous levels is possible. Continue to practice heat safety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all local area sites through late
this evening. MVFR and IFR cigs are forecast to develop overnight
and stay through Wednesday morning. Light northeast to east winds
are forecast to persist along the I-35 corridor terminals through
tonight and then becoming light and variable overnight through
Wednesday morning. For KDRT, light and variable winds are forecast
for this afternoon and then a light southeast flow develops to
stay through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  91  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  92  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  98  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  92  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  92  77  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  90  78  96 /  10  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  92  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  92  78  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ209-222>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...17