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000
FXUS64 KEWX 281723
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

A mid level ridge remains centered over the southern plains with
lower level ridging remains centered off to our northeast. This
pattern maintains a dry (PWs of 1/2 to 3/4 inch) and subsident
airmass. No rain is expected under generally clear skies. The sunny
skies and no thermal advection will keep high temperatures slightly
above average. Cool, below average low temperatures are expected as
light winds, low dewpoints, and clear skies enable efficient
radiational cooling. A few of the normally cooler low lying spots in
the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may briefly fall into the
upper 40s around sunrise. Due to low humidities mainly in the upper
teens to mid 20s and wind gusts up to 20 mph each afternoon,
elevated fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Synopsis: Relatively good consensus exists amongst the global
ensemble means and clusters that the remnants of Hurricane Ian will
become absorbed into the westerlies over the Mid-Atlantic states
through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. Wedged between
Ian`s remains and a cutoff low rotating over the Grand Tetons
vicinity, a narrow yet well-defined ridge axis will amplify as this
occurs, extending from the Big Bend into the western Great Lakes by
the beginning of next week. Signals point toward deamplification of
the mid and upper level flow moving into the middle portions of next
week as westerly to slightly northwesterly winds becomes entrenched
over the CONUS. Lower in the column, predominantly east to
northeasterly surface to 850 millibar flow will continue to prevail
through the period.

Thursday night through Monday: Our sensible weather will continue to
look much like what we`ve seen through the beginning of this week,
with low humidity and mostly sunny skies dominating. Impressive
diurnal temperature swings will continue, with highs topping out in
the upper 80s and low 90s following morning lows ranging from the
lower 50s to low 60s. Radiational cooling will continue to influence
overnight temperatures in the presence of dry air and light winds.
Coolest stretch of the period will be Friday night/Saturday morning,
when it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few low-lying locations in
Hill Country and east of I-35 fall into the upper 40s.

Monday night through Tuesday: Mostly sunny and rain-free conditions
will continue. Likely due to a slightly more easterly component in
the afternoon winds, most guidance wants to start bumping boundary
layer moisture up through this portion of the long term forecast
period. Evidenced in minor dew point jumps from the 30s/40s late
Sunday to widespread upper 40s and low 50s Monday and Tuesday, this
subtle pattern shift should lead to slightly milder overnight low
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. High temperature impacts
should be negligible, with max readings ranging from the upper 80s to
low 90s continuing to be forecast through Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

VFR conditions are forecast for the area terminals through Thursday.
Southeast winds are forecast to prevail through this evening and then
becoming light and variable tonight into Thursday morning. A light
northeast to east wind component is forecast for Thursday across the
I-35 sites, while light southeast to south flow is forecast for KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  92  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  92  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  94  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  91  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             61  93  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  92  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  92  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  94  63  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...17