596
FXUS64 KEWX 110638
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
138 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to Medium (20-40%) rain/thunderstorm chances for this weekend

- Temperatures becoming slightly hotter next week with mainly rain
  free conditions

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A col region remains across the state with ridging centered to our
west and a weaker ridge to the east extending from the Gulf into the
Atlantic. A light plume of Saharan Dust has arrived but looks to
disperse later today into early Saturday. Rain chances are to remain
very low through tonight with only a stray shower or two. PWATs do
uptick into and through Saturday, mainly along and to the east of the
I-35 corridor. This will promote the return for isolated to
scattered rain/storm activity, with the greatest coverage likely in
the coastal plains. A couple of downpours may be heavy and this will
result in the WPC highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall across the Hill country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains
from 12 UTC Saturday through 12 UTC Sunday. Temperatures will
continue to top out in the low to mid 90s for most locations while
the overnight lows run in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Jul 11
2025

A modest shortwave trough digging out of the Colorado front range
into portions of the southern plains will help to advance a surface
boundary southwards across the Texas panhandle from Saturday night
into Sunday/Sunday night. This boundary and the increased mid-level
vorticity results in increased rain and thunderstorm chances from
West Texas to the Red River and northeastward through Oklahoma. Our
local region looks to be more on the southern end of this weather
system with primarily isolated to scattered rain/storm activity
across our region through Sunday afternoon given the sufficient PWAT
values. The latest medium range ensemble guidance continues to show
the greatest footprint for rainfall and potential for any flooding
instances centering from the Midland/San Angelo area northeastward to
the Red River and into Oklahoma. Details, however, will continue to
be fined tuned, as the forecast enters the 48-60 hour out hi-res
convective allowing model guidance period. WPC`s excessive rainfall
outlook highlights a level 1 of 4 risk into a portion of the Hill
Country from 12 UTC Sunday through 12 UTC Monday.

Area rain chances diminish through next week as local PWATs return
near or even slightly below average. There could be some light
concentrations of Saharan Dust arriving as well, mainly for the
second half of the week. Daytime highs start to gradually climb as
well, with most locations reaching the mid to upper 90s by mid to
late next week with even higher heat indices. The locations closer to
the Rio Grande may flirt near or above the 100 degree mark as well.
Overnight lows stay rather seasonable in the low to mid 70s area
wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR cigs are forecast to prevail across all area sites for the first
couple of hours of this cycle. Then, MVFR cigs begin around 09Z and
remain through 15Z. VFR cigs return after 15z with a prevailing
southerly flow with speeds around 12 to 16 knots and gusts of 20 to
25 knots for most of the afternoon through middle of the evening.
MVFR return for the I-35 terminals around 09Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  76  93  76 /  10   0  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  76  93  76 /  10   0  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  75  93  75 /  10   0  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            91  74  90  73 /   0   0  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  78  97  77 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  75  92  74 /   0   0  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             92  75  92  75 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  75  93  75 /  10   0  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  76  92  76 /  10   0  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  76  92  77 /  10   0  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           95  77  95  77 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...17