486
FXUS64 KEWX 110834
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Key Messages...

- Hard freeze expected for all of South Central Texas this morning.

- Warmer temperatures are back in play Saturday and Sunday but still
below normal.

A surface high will slowly move across our area this morning,
allowing winds to go nearly calm and temperatures to plummet down
into the lower to middle 20s for most locations. A few spots in the
Hill Country and Edwards Plateau may even dip into the teens this
morning. With dry air in place and winds turning southwesterly and
increasing to 10-15 mph today, expect temperatures to warm up
quickly from our very cold start. Highs should top out in the mid to
upper 50s with lots of sunshine. Clouds will be on the increase over
the eastern CWA on Sunday as a disturbance over northern Mexico
skirts past our region. This will allow a surface low to develop
along the Texas Coast, but it will be too far south and east to
impact our sensible weather much beyond a few showers over the
Coastal Plains Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny
skies and highs in the upper 50s to lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Key Message...

- Cool temperatures continue next week, with mainly dry conditions.

A cold front should be mostly through the area Sunday evening with a
low just off the central Texas coast. This low will continue
northeast with any precipitation confined to locations along the
coast or over the Gulf of Mexico waters. Surface high pressure
lingers near the area through mid-week with colder than normal high
temperatures forecast each day. An inverted surface trough brings
additional moisture to the area Wednesday, although the majority of
ensemble members still favor drier conditions so have maintained NBM
PoPs of 15 percent or less Wednesday into Thursday at this time.
Temperatures increase late week into the weekend with the return of
southerly flow. Low precipitation chances return to the eastern half
of the area Saturday as a front approaches, but the best chances
remain east.

Beyond the 7 day forecast, the CPC indicates odds tilted towards
below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across South
Central Texas. There are indications in many of the global ensemble
members of another surge of polar air moving southward into Texas
late next weekend or early the following week. As we saw with this
last system, use extreme caution when viewing any one model this far
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Wind speeds have dropped below 10 kts and will stay that way
overnight. Skies will be mostly clear for tonight and Saturday.
Winds will shift back to the south or southeast and increase to
around 10 kts Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  37  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  32  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  34  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  34  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  34  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  33  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             56  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  33  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  37  57  36 /   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  36  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           56  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...27
Aviation...05