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000
FXUS64 KEWX 040533
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Main issue this early AM is whether the stratus will form. Definitely
think the coverage will be less than 24 hours ago, but models are
still pointing to some MVFR decks primarily hitting the SAT/SSF area
and working their way to the west into portions of the Hill Country.
Left AUS as VFR but did bring in a SCT group predawn just in case
some stratus sneaks up I-35. Starting to get the first pixels of low
cloud development on Satellite down NW of CRP so will look to see how
quickly it forms/expands and moves north. Left DRT as VFR as well
based on guidance. Any stratus that does form will likely dissipate
by late morning leaving moderate southerly surface winds and VFR
conditions for all the TAF sites by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/

AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will prevail for the most part during the TAF period,
with the exception of a low chance of stratus between 10Z-13Z
producing MVFR ceilings in an area around SAT-HDO-ECU-ERV. Otherwise,
SE winds diminishing after sunset. A SW wind around 5-10KT is
forecast to develop after sunrise at SAT/AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Subtropical ridge that has been in place over the state the last few
days will keep things quiet weather-wise for the short term. Heat
will build tomorrow with many locations approaching or reaching the
century mark with the exception of the interior Hill Country. Well
mixed boundary layer should keep dewpoints near or below 60-65
degrees for Saturday afternoon and keep heat index values from
approaching heat advisory criteria but it will still certainly be
hot. It is important to remember to stay hydrated, try to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during peak heating hours, and never
leave children or pets in a vehicle.

There could be a few lingering patches of high clouds that may
regulate temperatures slightly Saturday afternoon. Also, the
dissipating Saharan Air Layer that has been impacting the region
will keep hazy conditions around at least through Saturday. Ridge
looks erode and begins to shift westward on Saturday, potentially
bringing a change in pattern just beyond the short term.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
As noted in the short term discussion above the upper level ridge
will shift to the west beginning on Saturday, and with the weakness
in the upper level pattern over us it will open the door for at least
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms. With a disturbance
located near the ArkLaTex and weak northerly or northwest flow aloft
Sunday should be dry, but rain chances creep into the forecast for
Monday. The GFS shows a possible MCS developing to our northwest and
approaching South Central Texas Monday night, while the Canadian and
ECMWF both show isolated activity to our north and east. Based on
this have continued to run with slight chance PoPs for Monday, but
introduced 20 PoPs in for Monday night to account for the possibility
of the MCS. If that does not form, or the isolated activity remains
to the north and east of our area then Monday could be a mostly dry
day. For Tuesday moisture pools more across east Texas, so the slight
chances for rain shift to east of I-35 during the afternoon hours.
The two days of increased clouds and slight rain chances will help
"cool" temperatures down from near the Century mark this weekend to
the mid 90s for the start of the work week. The upper level ridge
begins to build again over the Gulf of Mexico and Texas on Wednesday
returning the area to a dry forecast with warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 101  76  96  77 /  -    0  -   10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  75  96  76 /  -    0  -   10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 100  75  97  76 /   0   0  -   -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  99  74  95  75 /   0   0  -   -   20
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 105  78 103  80 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        75 101  76  96  76 /  -   -   10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73 102  74 100  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74 100  74  97  76 /   0   0  -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  99  76  96  77 /  -   -   -   20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       75 101  76  98  77 /   0   0  -   -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           75 101  76  98  77 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...09
Long-Term...Oaks