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000
FXUS64 KEWX 142359 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue across portions of
south central Texas this evening. The more persistent activity and
higher coverage has remained across the northern portion of Val Verde
county. Gusty northwest winds associated with outflow winds will
continue at DRT for the next 1-2 hours. With storms weakening, we
will not mention any TSRA at DRT. Farther east, a westward moving
outflow boundary will bring some gusty east winds to the I-35 sites
over the next several hours. Coverage is limited and at this time, we
will not include a mention of TSRA for the I-35 sites. For the
overnight hours, winds will gradually trend back to a more east to
southeasterly direction as SCT-BKN high clouds continue. We could see
some additional convection develop Tuesday afternoon, but given low
confidence and limited coverage, we will not mention in the forecast
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Scattered Cu clouds are covering almost the entire area of South
Central Texas. As of this writing, temperatures range from the upper
80s to upper 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s mainly along and
east of Interstate 35, expect heat index values in the 102 to 108
range for the rest of this afternoon. Otherwise, dry for the most
part with chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northwest part of Val Verde County as an outflow boundary moves
across that area followed by a stronger complex of storms over the
San Angelo area pushing to the southwest. The other area that could
see a shower or two and maybe a thunderstorm is the far southeast
portion of the area. Partly cloudy skies are expected for tonight
into Tuesday morning with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Can`t rule out overnight and early Tuesday morning showers across
the Hill Country and areas along and east the I-35 corridor as an
outflow boundary pushes to the south and interact with the moist
airmass that resides across the southeast and Coastal Plains areas.

A new round of showers and thunderstorm is forecast for the far
southeast of South Central Texas on Tuesday afternoon. The
interaction of a lingering outflow boundary and elevated moisture
will combine to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm. Highs are expected to reach the lower 90s across the
Hill Country to mid 90s along the I-35 corridor and up to 99 degrees
along the Rio Grande. Heat index values are expected to run around
102 to 108 mainly along and east of I-35 for the afternoon period.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph are forecast for most areas with a
southerly flow along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast should begin mostly dry
across all areas with only a very small chance of rain across the far
southeastern counties on Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday
through Friday should be in the lower to upper 90s for most
locations. For the weekend, any moisture/development with the system
near the Bay of Campeche is expected to move well east of our area.
This should leave us mostly dry and warm with temperatures expected
to be in the middle 90s to 103-105 degrees. The warmer temperatures
should be in the southwestern counties and locations closer to the
Rio Grande. The blend held onto some low PoPs for the eastern
counties this weekend, but knocked those down given the agreement in
the guidance from the medium range models.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  72  94  74 /  10  20  -   10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  72  94  72 /  -   -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  77  98  77 /  10  10  -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  94  73  93  73 /  -   10  -   -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  94  73  93  72 /  10  10  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  73  94  74 /  10  10  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  95  74  95  75 /  10  30  -   10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  74  93  74 /  10  10  -   10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  75  95  75 /  10  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...KCW