416
FXUS64 KEWX 262338
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Warm conditions will continue through the weekend and into next
  week.

- Isolated showers and storms today, Friday, and Sunday, mainly
  Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor.

- Light concentrations of Saharan dust arriving over the weekend and
  increasing into early to mid next week, bringing hazy conditions
  to the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Widely scattered showers and storms have developed out of the
Coastal Plains into southeast Texas midday. Isolated coverage of
showers and storms is expected to develop farther inland toward the
I-35 corridor and eastern Hill Country through the afternoon hours,
assisted with daytime heating and mesoscale forcing along outflow
boundaries. The loss of diurnal heating around and after sunset will
lead to convection dissipating. Precipitable water values will
decrease slightly into Friday, leading to only 10-20% chances for
isolated, daytime showers and storms, primarily over the Coastal
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Our first plume of seasonal Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust is forecast
to arrive in waves, initially light concentrations over the weekend
and increasing in concentrating Monday through Wednesday. Low and
mid level flow trajectories should keep the higher concentrations of
dust, which is mainly aloft, confined to the Coastal Plains, I-35
corridor and Hill Country. The main noticeable impacts will be a more
hazy, milky appearance to the sky during the day and slightly more
vibrant sunsets.

There is a surge of high precipitable water values, just ahead of
the leading edge of the higher dust concentrations, that is forecast
to move out of the Bay of Campeche and into the the area late
Saturday night through Sunday. There is a signal in a few of the
models of an uptick in diurnally driven showers and storms across
the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor on Sunday, isolated to
widely scattered in coverage. This moisture could pool farther west
along the Rio Grande on Monday, with the increase in the SAL dust
resulting in a drier conditions east. Otherwise, warm conditions
will continue through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Lingering shower activity dissipates within the next hour or two
across the region. VFR flight conditions prevail through at least
midnight with a mix of few to bkn mid and high level clouds. Low
clouds develop overnight into Friday morning with MVFR ceilings
across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). The winds could
trend variable in direction initially with the help from nearby
showers and outflow but expect for a light to moderate south-
southeast to east-southeasterly flow to generally throughout the
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  96  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  94  72  96 /  10   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  93  73  94 /  10  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  74  94 /  10   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17