Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 271713 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: 06Z observations place the cold front
responsible for our refreshing pattern shift predominantly to our
south in the BRO and CRP CWAs. The western side of the boundary has
been a bit more erratic, swinging from the south Texas Gulf coast
northwest to near Laredo and Faith Ranch prior to crossing the
international border and stalling along the higher terrain of the
Serranias del Burro Mountains. A very dry, continental air mass
continues to advect into the region behind the cold front, with most
stations in the CWA reporting dew points in the 40s at the current
hour. The lone exception to this is in the Rio Grande Plains, where
closer proximity to the frontal zone/moisture pooling along it
continues to hold dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s. A surface
high pressure ridge has been analyzed immediately to our north in
the Edwards Plateau, extending to the northeast into southeast
Oklahoma. Said area of pressure rises should continue to nudge south
through the period, shoving the frontal zone deeper into Mexico in
the process.

Remainder of the overnight: With very dry air and light surface
winds in place across the northeast CWA, expect to see low
temperatures impacted by radiational cooling. With current surface
observations showing temperatures in the upper 50s in spots across
this area, it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few locations fall
into the low 50s prior to sunrise. Best chances for these
temperatures will be across our higher elevation Hill Country
counties. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s can be expected
elsewhere, with a few mid 60s readings possible in the relatively
muggier Rio Grande Plains.

Today: Temperatures should rebound nicely this afternoon following
the cool start for some. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s are
expected. With very dry air in place, relative humidity values will
fall into the 15 to 25 percent range by the late afternoon hours.
While winds will be a touch lower than yesterday, gusts could
approach and briefly exceed 20 MPH through sunset. This will support
a second consecutive day of elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions across the region. A Fire Danger Statement has been
issued through the early evening for portions of the Coastal Plains,
Hill Country, and I-35 corridor where winds/gusts will be the
highest. Individuals are encouraged to avoid activities leading to
the potential ignition and/or spread of wildfires in these
regions through the afternoon hours today.

Tonight through Wednesday: With clear skies and light to calm
surface winds in place due to the persisting pressure ridge to our
north, efficient radiational cooling is expected to influence low
temperatures once more tonight. The current forecast calls for
widespread low temperatures in the 50s, with warmer spots in the low
60s being found within the Rio Grande Plains and Austin/San Antonio
city centers. Widespread low 50s readings will be found in the
traditionally cooler Hill Country locations, where a few isolated
lows in the upper 40s can`t be entirely ruled out through daybreak
Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound nicely again tomorrow
afternoon, with another day of mid 80s-low 90s high temperatures
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

An weak or flat upper level ridge persists over our area later this
week through early next week. An upper level trough over the eastern
states lifts Hurricane Ian north over Florida into the southeastern
states with no direct impacts to our area. Surface high pressure
ridging and a dry airmass with well below seasonal normal PWs of 1/3
to 3/4 inch will get continuously reinforced through this weekend
with the larger scale flow around Ian. The dry airmass combined with
subsidence ensures no rain. High temperatures remain slightly above
average due to ample sunshine. Low temperatures trend well below
average as low dewpoints, clear skies, and light winds allow for
efficient radiational cooling at night. A few of the normally cooler
low lying spots in the Hill Country to along the Escarpment may
briefly fall into the upper 40s around sunrise. Some lower level
moisture returns next week as the surface ridge drifts off to the
east. Of note, the 27/00Z run of the GFS has the remnants and
associated moisture of an eastern Pacific tropical system move over
our area early to middle of next week. For now, will disregard this
as it is a new development and wait for model consistency and
consensus. Other models and previous runs of the GFS keep this
potential system out over the Pacific with no impact to our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

No significant changes in this forecast period as benign weather
looks to continue over the next 24-30 hours and for quite honestly,
the remainder of this week. Expect VFR ceilings with light
northeasterly winds of 5-15 kts today with an occasional gust to 20
kts. Winds should go to less than 5 kts after 00Z before returning to
a more easterly flow by mid to late Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  92  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  92  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  92  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  91  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             58  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  91  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           61  92  61  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Morris


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