426
FXUS64 KEWX 090612
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-40% chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Coastal Plains,
  I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.
- Drier and hazy conditions with Saharan Dust on Thursday.
- Scattered rain chances over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Two features aloft of interest today. A retrograding weak trough
currently near the Texas coast and weakness dropping south out of
north Texas will link up this afternoon and evening across the
region. HREF members are keying in on isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms developing over the Coastal Plains and Hill
Country mid and late afternoon, with a slightly lower potential into
portions of the I-35 corridor late afternoon through the early
evening hours. Rainfall amounts of 1/2-1 inch are expected with this
isolated to widely scattered activity, although some heavy downpours
are possible, with isolated instances of 1-2" of rainfall quickly.
Precipitation is forecast to gradually wane after sunset.

Slight drier air works into the region late tonight into Thursday,
along with some hazy conditions associated with another plume of
Saharan dust. Coverage of any precipitation on Thursday should remain
very isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Within the broad shear axis aloft, an inverted trough appears to
sharpen on Friday across south Texas then lift northwest into the
region Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a pool of higher
precipitable water content off the Gulf. This trough looks to then
move into Trans Pecos and west Texas on Sunday and Monday, with the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge nudging into eastern areas
of the CWA. This will allow for rain chances (30-50%) to return back
to much of the region on Saturday and Saturday night, in the form of
scattered showers and storms, and favoring western areas on Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

MVFR conditions are currently happening at KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF but
may come up to VFR for an hour or two before coming back down to
MVFR category between 09Z and 11Z. VFR cigs resume around 15Z for
all terminals along the I-35 corridor. South to southeast winds are
forecast to prevail overnight with speeds of 6 knots or less and
increasing 6 to 12 knots during the day time period. For KDRT, VFR
cigs are forecast to prevail for most of the forecast period with a
small window of MVFR around 12Z to 15Z Wednesday. An east to
southeast wind flow of 6 to 12 knots and gusts up to 17 knots is
forecast for KDRT throughout the day. Have decided no to include a
PROB30 for KAUS for late afternoon thunderstorm activity (need to
evaluate more data), but will take a closer look for the next
forecast cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  74  95  75 /  30  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  94  75 /  30  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  73  94  73 /  20  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  72  91  72 /  40  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  73  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  73  92  72 /  10  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  73  94  73 /  30  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  93  75 /  30  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  74  95  75 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17