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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051128
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Some low cigs are seen on satellite skirting mainly east of the I-35
terminals, but are not accounted for in the TAFS. The rest of the
TAFs should be a focus on winds as only some morning high cirrus are
expected after a storm complex dissipates over North TX. The winds
will be mainly below 12 knots, and if any place gets a stronger wind,
it will be at DRT between 17Z and 01Z. Slightly higher winds will be
seen over I-35 after daybreak Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A shortwave is noted on satellite and radar in a N-S axis from
eastern Colorado to just south of Amarillo early this morning.
Robust convection has developed into a thunderstorm complex with a
long gust front leading southeast. This feature will likely impact
the weather for Central TX later today, as a few models are already
boosting a low-end chance of storms for areas N/NW of Austin this
afternoon and early evening. The upper ridge will otherwise be
dominant, so a slight chance is about as much as we can offer for the
feature at this time. San Antonio reached the triple digit mark for
the first time this summer, and the temps will likely be similar in
the same type of airmass today.

The mix-out of dew points over the weekend is leading to lower min
temps, but increased onshore winds late tonight will reverse the
trend for more lows in the mid to upper 70s for Monday. The
increased Gulf humidity for Monday will likely take a degree or two
off todays max temps and increase the heat indices back to the 100-
105 range for most areas.

The shortwave to arrive into North-Central and Central TX today
leaves Monday to be a little less certain on afternoon rain chances,
and the model consensus only depicts a pooled area of moisture
verses the earlier runs which included some weak 500 mb vorticity.
Thus Monday`s PoPs over Central Texas are a bit contracted northward
as compared to the previous Monday forecasts.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
With the uncertainty of Monday`s POP, will keep slight pop over our
northern zones Monday night in case there is any storm development
N/NW of the area Monday afternoon. This low pop trend will continue
into Tue with slight/chance pop over the eastern third of the cwa,
mainly east of Highway 281, as a stationary front washes out across
the northern sections of the state and northerly mid-upper winds
could direct some outflows or convection into our area. The upper
ridge to the west will start to dominate a bit more again mid week
and edge more into Texas by Wednesday, pushing the slight pop to our
extreme eastern areas, mainly east of a La Grange/Cuero line. Tue and
Wed will see the coolest temps...if you can call mid to upper 90s
cool. That will be the last day with rain chances this week as the
500 mb ridge is forecast to strengthen to near 600dm over NM/AZ/CO by
next weekend and PW values decrease over our region. Thermal
troughing out west will at least develop an increasing breeze, so as
temps warm up again mid to late week, the southerly wind should
increase as well. No record heat with the ridge axis to our W/NW, but
good July heat nonetheless.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  77  97  77  95 /  20  20  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  96  76  94 /  10  20  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  98  76  96 /  -   10  -   10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            98  75  96  75  93 /  20  20  10  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  78 104  79 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  76  97  76  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport            100  75 101  76  99 /   0  10   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76  97  76  96 /  -   10  -   10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  76  96  77  96 /  -   10  20  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  99  77  97 /  -   10  -   10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          100  76  99  78  97 /   0  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...09