


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
804 FXUS64 KEWX 021126 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Radar imagery late this evening shows some light showers moving through areas of the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Some of the Hi-Res models have these showers continuing in coverage through the night as the they continue moving off to the north northwest. We are not expecting heavy rainfall with these showers. However, there is the possibility for heavier showers and storms to blossom early in the morning due to an influx of deep moisture over Mexico which spreads into the Rio Grande Plains and northwestward with time into the Southern Edwards Plateau. With the ridge continued to be positioned just off to our east continued southeasterly flow will allow ample moisture for these storms to produce tropical downpours much like we saw over much of the western half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. In fact many Hi-res models are now showing several waves of deep moisture advancing into the area and even making it possibly as far east as the Austin metro and Coastal Plains. This is quite the change from even runs from 24 hours ago as it now looks like the models are finally catching on to the upper level ridge sitting off to our east being weaker. Any showers and isolated thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall as Pwats surge to over 2 inches across the area. Because of this decided to raise pops across most of the area. Temperatures may not make it out of the low 80s due to rain cooled air and persistent cloud cover while areas in the east that see sun, could approach the mid 90s. Showers and storms could continue well into the evening and perhaps overnight hours mainly along the Rio Grande while most activity east of this area should see storms wane in coverage and intensity shortly after sunset. Thursday we expect more rain and storm chances across most of the forecast area as deep moisture from Mexico causes Pwats to surge in excess of 2 inches once again resulting in another round of possibly locally heavy rainfall from any showers and storms that do form during the day. Since the ridge is expected to be weaker chances are now higher that most areas on Thursday that were previously looking dry will experience some rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 By Thursday Evening showers and storms should wane by sunset mainly along and east of I-35. Areas west, including the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau could see showers and isolated storms continuing in coverage well into Friday morning. Most shower and storm activity should move off to the north or dissipate by mid morning with the exception of the Rio Grande Plains. By Friday afternoon the Ridge moves further west over our area thus shutting off any chances for showers and storms as clouds start to erode from east to west throughout the day. With the ridge coming in weaker then expected some global models are hinting at showers and storms forming yet again on Saturday as the deep moisture is displaced off to our western areas including the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau. Areas to the east should remain dry under mostly sunny skies for Saturday with all areas seeing precip chances shut off by Sunday as the ridge amplifies allowing temperatures to really ramp up with most areas seeing highs in the upper 90s. By Monday and Tuesday the ridge starts to push off to the east once again allowing for the possibility for afternoon coastal showers to impact the Coastal plains. Thus our summerlike pattern with daily afternoon rain chances resumes with highs remaining in the upper 90s to near the triple digit mark. Remember to take frequent breaks if you plan on being outdoors as temperatures climb and heat indices rise. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 AUS will remain VFR through the period with precipitation chances this afternoon that are too low to include in the TAF. MVFR ceilings will be near SAT/SSF through 16Z, then VCSH and possibly -RA impacting terminals through this evening. MVFR ceilings at DRT continue with models still favoring IFR conditions around mid- morning, then back up to MVFR this afternoon. Areas of showers will move north along the Rio Grande towards DRT with this pattern likely to continue into the mid-afternoon. Lesser confidence on rain chances is seen late afternoon into the evening so only have included PROB30s for DRT after 21Z. MVFR ceilings will likely spread east towards I-35 terminals early Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 96 75 93 76 / 20 10 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 75 93 75 / 30 10 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 74 91 74 / 40 20 40 20 Burnet Muni Airport 92 73 89 73 / 30 20 40 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 75 88 75 / 80 60 50 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 75 91 74 / 10 10 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 84 73 86 73 / 70 40 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 74 91 74 / 30 20 40 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 75 93 75 / 20 10 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 75 88 75 / 50 30 40 20 Stinson Muni Airport 90 75 90 75 / 50 30 40 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...CJM Long-Term...CJM Aviation...27