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000
FXUS64 KEWX 291109
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

An upper level ridge from northeastern Mexico to the southern Plains
and a lower level ridge off to our northeast persist in the short
term. This maintains a dry airmass with well below seasonal normal
PWs. Due to strong subsidence under the ridging and the dry airmass,
no rain is expected with mostly clear skies. The trend of near to
slightly above average high temperatures due to ample sunshine with
no thermal advection and well below average low temperatures due to
light winds, low dewpoints, and clear skies allowing for efficient
radiational cooling continues. Due to low humidities in the upper
teens to mid 20s and possibly a few wind gusts up to 15 mph each
afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Synopsis: Ensemble means and clusters continue to show persistence
of a narrow longwave ridge axis from the Big Bend northeast into the
western Great Lakes through this weekend. The feature will be
bounded by the remnants of Hurricane Ian to the east and a cutoff
low rotating over the northern Rocky Mountains to the west. The trio
of features should gradually deamplify by Monday, thanks in large
part to the two regions of depressed height falls opening up and
becoming absorbed into the polar jet stream. Alluded to in previous
forecast cycles, some disagreement continues to exist between the
major global ensembles regarding the evolution of the 500 mb flow
field through the beginning of next week. The divergence in
solutions is tied to the current Tropical Depression Sixteen-E,
located off Mexico`s central Pacific coast. Euro and Canadian
guidance continues to show a due northerly track to the disturbance
through the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, bringing its attendant upper
level low up the Gulf of California and into southern Arizona prior
to its dissipation. Comparatively, several GEFS members continue to
drag the feature along a more northeastern trajectory, advecting
remnant streamers of vorticity and moisture into Coahuila and the
Rio Grande Valley through Monday afternoon. Resultant implications
on our sensible weather will be minimal, however, as the varying
scenarios will do little more than alter the amount of upper level
cloud coverage passing overhead. The area will remain dry regardless
of which solution verifies, with east-northeast surface winds
continuing to prevail.

Friday night/Saturday morning: Thanks to very efficient radiational
cooling in the wake of a renewed push of dry air from the northeast,
temperatures should fall to their coolest values of the period.
Widespread lows in the 50s are expected outside of the Rio Grande
Plains and Austin/San Antonio city centers, with lower 50s readings
possible in Hill Country and to the east of Interstate 35. While not
the norm, a few lows in the upper 40s can`t be ruled out in low-
lying spots susceptible to cold air drainage. Temperatures will
quickly rebound following sunrise Saturday morning.

Remainder of the period: A persistent forecast continues to prevail
through Wednesday. Apart from the minor uncertainties regarding sky
conditions mentioned in the synopsis, the area should continue to
see plentiful sunshine and high temperatures ranging from the mid
80s to low 90s. Dewpoints could begin to creep up into the 50-60
degree range by midweek as surface winds turn east-southeasterly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

VFR SKC flying conditions prevail today through Friday morning. Winds
will be somewhat variable at 8 KTs or less with a few gusts to 15 KTs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  54  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  56  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Quigley
Aviation...04