Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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422 FXUS64 KEWX 031122 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 522 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Early this morning, streamer showers have already developed over the northeastern portion of the area and are expected to expand in coverage by sunrise. An upper level trough over the western US will deepen today with a closed low developing over the AZ/NM vicinity later tonight. This pattern will shift the best forcing for the day north of the area with only low chances for some isolated showers or thunderstorms in the forecast today. Most of the area will experience dry, warm and gusty conditions with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Highs this afternoon are forecast above or near record temperatures for most locations. Gusty wind briefly decreases in the west late this afternoon before increasing again with gusts up to 30-35 mph areawide overnight. Low clouds build back over the area overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Additional streamer showers may be seen again early Monday morning. The aforementioned upper level trough begins to move east Monday bringing first a dry line, then a cold front to the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday ahead of the dry line mainly from the Hill Country and areas east. Any afternoon thunderstorms look to be isolated in nature, but ingredients are in place for the potential for a strong to severe storm or two. SPC has continued their level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather in the most northeastern portions of the area with a level 1 of 5 risk generally from the Hill Country and areas east. Strong wind and large hail continue to be the main hazards. Otherwise, gusty wind will continue over the eastern half of the area on Monday ahead of the front with highs again largely in the 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 A cold front across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Valley moves across the I-35 corridor to the Coastal Plains Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Forcing by the front on an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs nearly 200% of early November averages will generate a line of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rains are possible due to the unseasonably moist airmass. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE around 1,500 J/kg and SFC-6Km shear of 35-40 KTs, but poor mid level lapse rates around 6C/km. A few strong storms are possible of which a couple or so may become severe. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, although hail is also possible. In wake of the frontal passage, a much drier airmass and temperatures closer to, though slightly above seasonal averages are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Moist southerly flow returns Thursday leading to low chances of showers and a few thunderstorms and a brief warming trend. Another cold front is forecast for late Friday into Saturday bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures going into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions are seen across most of South Central Texas this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to hold at terminals through 17-19Z before all sites return to VFR. Streamer showers to the east and a few thunderstorms to the west will continue through the morning hours before activity is expected to diminish with mostly dry conditions across the area this afternoon. Wind will increase today with gusty conditions expected at I-35 sites and with lesser gusts to the west. Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to return late tonight into Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 72 85 60 / 20 10 60 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 72 85 60 / 20 10 60 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 72 88 62 / 20 20 50 80 Burnet Muni Airport 84 71 80 55 / 30 10 70 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 70 87 60 / 20 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 71 83 58 / 30 20 80 70 Hondo Muni Airport 86 70 86 59 / 30 20 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 71 85 59 / 20 20 50 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 72 87 62 / 20 20 50 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 72 86 62 / 30 20 50 70 Stinson Muni Airport 88 74 89 63 / 20 20 40 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...04 Aviation...27