312
FXUS64 KEWX 191125
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Hot conditions continue today with elevated heat index values east
of the dry line.
- Low chances for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
across the northern Hill Country and I-35 corridor.

Some elevated showers may be seen this morning as a disturbance
aloft moves over the area. The most favored locations for any
activity this morning is over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country.

The dry line advances east today but looks to stay further west than
previous forecasts. There is some uncertainty regarding its
placement but latest models suggest it will be around the western
Hill Country this afternoon. By peak heating, our northern-most
counties over the Hill Country or I-35 corridor have the greatest
chances to break a capping inversion, though there remains a rather
large spread in guidance on storm initiation this far south. If
isolated thunderstorms are seen in our area, they would likely
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the
main hazards.

Otherwise, breezy southerly wind are expected over the eastern half
of the area with gusts from 20-30 mph through the afternoon.
Continued hot weather will be seen with triple digit heat in the
west and elevated heat indices in the east ahead of the dry line.

Low clouds build over the much of the I-35 corridor and Winter
Garden region tonight keeping warm lows in the 70s. The cold front
catches up with the dryline Tuesday morning with this feature moving
across South Central Texas during the day. Highs are tricky Tuesday
afternoon and will be dependent on the speed of this frontal
passage. Some compressional warming ahead of the front will likely
keep hot triple digit temperatures at least for the southern half of

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Slight cool down from the heat Wednesday and Thursday before
  warming right back up for the rest of the period.

- Isolated to scattered storms possible Thursday and again Sunday
  afternoon.

We start off the long term with the cold front basically exiting
across the area with westerly flow quickly switching to a southeasterly
flow by Wednesday morning. What once looked like a promising front
giving us a nice cool down keeps trending weaker and weaker. Thus
while temps will "cool" it wont be by much, we arent expecting
widespread triple digits like this past week but still expect plenty
of mid to even upper 90s. The southeasterly flow brings with it
increasing moisture from the Gulf however we are not expecting 105+
heat indices but rather closer to 95-100 which will definitely feel
"cooler" then recently. Additionally, we could have some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms on Thursday due to a passing shortwave
trough though confidence isnt quite high on this unfolding just yet.

Looking ahead to Memorial day weekend we warm right back up into the
upper 90s to near 100 with heat indices once again in the 100-105
range as an upper-level ridge looks to park itself just to the north
of us. A couple disturbances seem to want to enter our area over the
holiday weekend with one approaching as early as Sunday afternoon.
Looking ahead beyond the long range a fairly stormy pattern beyond
Sunday into Monday looks to continue though details are still
uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR ceilings have overspread much of South Central Texas with VFR
conditions only in the far west including KDRT. Widely scattered
thunderstorms have formed over the Rio Grande Plains and are moving
northeast over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country this
morning. Given their track, have no mention of precipitation at
terminals. Southerly wind will become gusty this morning through the
afternoon at I-35 sites before decreasing this evening. At KDRT,
wind becomes lighter this morning before becoming westerly behind the
dryline. Isolated thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon or
evening mainly over the Hill Country or northern I-35 corridor,
however confidence remains low enough to not mention in the AUS TAF
at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)

         MON    TUE
        05/19   05/20
-----------------------------
AUS    97/2006  99/2008
ATT    98/2022* 101/2008
SAT   101/1989 100/1996
DRT   108/2020 105/1973

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  73  96  66 /  20  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  72  96  64 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  73  99  67 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  68  91  63 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  71 101  73 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  70  92  62 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  70 101  70 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  98  65 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  76  97  67 /  10  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  74 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  75 102  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...27