Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
422
FXUS64 KEWX 031122
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
522 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Early this morning, streamer showers have already developed over the
northeastern portion of the area and are expected to expand in
coverage by sunrise. An upper level trough over the western US will
deepen today with a closed low developing over the AZ/NM vicinity
later tonight. This pattern will shift the best forcing for the day
north of the area with only low chances for some isolated showers or
thunderstorms in the forecast today. Most of the area will
experience dry, warm and gusty conditions with partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies. Highs this afternoon are forecast above or near
record temperatures for most locations. Gusty wind briefly decreases
in the west late this afternoon before increasing again with gusts
up to 30-35 mph areawide overnight.

Low clouds build back over the area overnight with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s. Additional streamer showers may be seen again early
Monday morning. The aforementioned upper level trough begins to move
east Monday bringing first a dry line, then a cold front to the
area. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday ahead of the
dry line mainly from the Hill Country and areas east. Any afternoon
thunderstorms look to be isolated in nature, but ingredients are in
place for the potential for a strong to severe storm or two. SPC has
continued their level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather in the most
northeastern portions of the area with a level 1 of 5 risk generally
from the Hill Country and areas east. Strong wind and large hail
continue to be the main hazards. Otherwise, gusty wind will continue
over the eastern half of the area on Monday ahead of the front with
highs again largely in the 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

A cold front across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio
Grande Valley moves across the I-35 corridor to the Coastal Plains
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Forcing by the front on
an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs nearly 200% of early November
averages will generate a line of showers and thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rains are possible due to the unseasonably moist airmass.
Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE around 1,500 J/kg and SFC-6Km
shear of 35-40 KTs, but poor mid level lapse rates around 6C/km. A
few strong storms are possible of which a couple or so may become
severe. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, although hail is
also possible. In wake of the frontal passage, a much drier airmass
and temperatures closer to, though slightly above seasonal averages
are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Moist southerly flow returns
Thursday leading to low chances of showers and a few thunderstorms
and a brief warming trend. Another cold front is forecast for late
Friday into Saturday bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms
and cooler temperatures going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions are seen across most of South Central Texas
this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to hold at terminals
through 17-19Z before all sites return to VFR. Streamer showers to
the east and a few thunderstorms to the west will continue through
the morning hours before activity is expected to diminish with
mostly dry conditions across the area this afternoon. Wind will
increase today with gusty conditions expected at I-35 sites and with
lesser gusts to the west. Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to
return late tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  72  85  60 /  20  10  60  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  72  85  60 /  20  10  60  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  72  88  62 /  20  20  50  80
Burnet Muni Airport            84  71  80  55 /  30  10  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  70  87  60 /  20  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  71  83  58 /  30  20  80  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  70  86  59 /  30  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  71  85  59 /  20  20  50  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  87  62 /  20  20  50  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  72  86  62 /  30  20  50  70
Stinson Muni Airport           88  74  89  63 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27