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000
FXUS64 KEWX 280521
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Latest synoptic setup across the region depicts a surface high over
the Hill Country, a surface cold front now pushing through all of
South Texas, and very dry air aloft with light easterly flow less
than 10 kts at 500mb. This has led to clear skies with a light ENE
breeze of 5-15 mph so far today. Temperatures should climb to the
lower and perhaps middle 90s once again, but humidity will be the
main story, or lack thereof. Late September/early October can be
unforgiving in our neck of the woods with heat and humidity
typically overstaying its welcome into the month of October.
However, with an early Fall cold front, we have managed to grab
hold of those cool mornings and it doesn`t look like the humidity
or moisture will return anytime soon. In fact, cool mornings are
likely to continue into the long term forecast period as well.
Expect temperatures to dip from perhaps as low as the upper 40s over
the Hill Country to the lower 60s on Wednesday morning. More of the
same can be expected Thursday morning as cool, dry air takes hold
each morning. Afternoons will be sunny and dry with highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Benign weather with low humidity levels will persist through the
rest of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend as weak mid to
upper level ridging remains in tact with light east-northeasterly
winds. Afternoons will continue to trend near to slightly above
average while lows trend cooler with the overnight lows running a
little below average. Like seen this morning, low-lying drainage
valleys could see the lows dip into the upper 40s at times this
week. No rain is expected into the weekend as cloud cover will be
hard to come by as well given the dry airmass that remains atop
the region.

A weather feature of interest that we may need to keep an eye on
into early next week will be a tropical wave across the Eastern
Pacific that currently has a high (70 percent) chance from the
National Hurricane Center of developing into a tropical cyclone
within the next 5 days. Majority of the guidance has this system
advancing westward away from Mexico but a couple of the recent
deterministic GFS runs along with a small cluster of the GFS
ensembles indicate that the storm could swing into Mexico before
quickly dissipating as it advances inland. This is an unlikely
solution as an upper level trough moving into the central plains
will likely not dig far enough south to pick this system up and
bring it northward. However, if this solution is able to verify
then some limited moisture (primarily cloud cover) may possibly
advance into the region from the west for early next week. We`ll
keep the cool mornings and warm afternoons along with rain free
conditions in the forecast through early next week for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

VFR mainly SKC flying conditions are expected overnight through
Wednesday night. Light and VRBL winds at 5 KTs or less overnight,
except NW drainage winds at KSAT, become E-SE at 5 to 10 KTs mid
morning through early evening on Wednesday, then light and VRBL
again Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  91  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  91  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  90  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  90  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             56  93  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  91  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   57  90  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  92  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           61  93  63  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04