Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 181720
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

A pocket of mid level cloudiness is holding up over northern Mexico
into the Rio Grande Plains early this morning. In a NW flow pattern
aloft, this cloud layer should gradually dissipate, but it should
hang around long enough to result in a morning temperature gradient
for this morning`s lows. Near freezing temps have settled over the
northern and eastern two-thirds of South Central TX, so the min temp
forecasts should be in good shape, but areas around Eagle Pass may
wind up remaining about 5-7 degrees warmer than the min temp
forecast. Little impact is expected on the daytime highs, as the
clouds are projected to dissipate for near even warming today. The
coldest maxes will thus be the areas that had the coldest minimums
in general. The surface ridge center should pass east late today,
but a light south wind is likely to decouple tonight, leading to
another cold low temp. Only an isolated pocket of freezing temps
are forecast tonight, only barely reaching 32, but lows should still
be in the 30s almost area-wide. The pressure gradient tightens up
slightly for Monday, so a near normal max temp is depicted for
Monday as the skies remain mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

Very pleasant weather is expected mid week through next weekend.
Upper level ridging builds over Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, relents
a bit on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes by to our north, then
rebuilds by next weekend. Southerly lower level winds and a building
thermal ridge take temperatures well above seasonal normal levels
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, they`ll stay well below record highs
that are in the upper 90s to 100 for the 20th and 21st. The lower
level flow also allows a return of overnight into morning low clouds
and patchy fog. The passage of the shortwave drags a cold front more
Pacific in nature across our area on Thursday. Below seasonal normal
moisture levels are indicated making the frontal passage rain free.
Downsloping flow in wake of the frontal passage maintains well above
seasonal normal temperatures on Thursday, though well below record
highs that are in the mid to upper 90s for the 22nd. A drier airmass
filtering across our area in combination with breezy northwest winds
make for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. The
highest threats for these conditions will be in the Hill Country,
Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and Winter Garden regions
Thursday afternoon into early evening. Will monitor fuel moistures
over the next several days for the potential of fire danger
conditions. Although there is cold advection in wake of the frontal
passage, temperatures remain above normal Friday through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A BKN cloud deck around 5000
feet near a DRT-COT line will continue to scatter out through the
early afternoon. Winds generally light around 5 KT or less this
afternoon and tonight, becoming variable as the surface ridge axis
moves through the area. A S to SW wind around 8-12 KT is forecast to
develop after 15Z Monday for most areas, SE around 5-8 KT along the
Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  38  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  55  31  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  34  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            54  36  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  33  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  33  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        55  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  34  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  37  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           57  35  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...04
Aviation...76


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