Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221150 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

.UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds continue with cigs now expected to stay closer to low end
MVFR through late morning. Some light showers are also noted, but
given isolated coverage, will not include in the TAFs at this time.
Improvement back to VFR is still anticipated around 17Z with enough
moisture to allow SCT-BKN cloud deck in the 5-6k agl range to
continue into the late afternoon. Low cloud development is expected
late in the forecast period and will mention MVFR cigs for I-35
beginning 06-07Z, with DRT around 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Current observations show some patchy fog is developing near the
coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor early this morning. With light
winds and plenty of moisture, patchy fog will continue across these
areas through mid-morning. Similar to yesterday, we also expect a few
showers to develop across portions of the Hill Country and I-35
corridor during the morning hours. Again, rainfall amounts will
remain light with these showers. Otherwise, expect plenty of clouds
early, with skies gradually clearing through early this evening. It
will be warm again today with highs ranging from the lower 80s to the
lower 90s.

Low temperatures tonight will be warm again given the persistent
southeasterly flow in the low-levels. Overnight lows will range from
the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Some patchy fog development is also
expected over the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor. Low clouds
will be on the increase after midnight, leading to another mostly
cloudy start to the day on Friday. There will be a change to the
weather pattern on Friday as the models are trending faster and
cooler with the next cold front set to impact the area. Daytime
highs will be tricky across the Hill Country and southern Edwards
Plateau as these areas may see highs peak closer to the Noon hour,
then fall through the afternoon. For the remainder of the area, we
will continue to forecast above normal warmth, with highs in the
lower 80s to lower 90s. We could see a brief line of showers and
thunderstorms develop along the front, but with little in the way of
widespread forcing, will only mention a 20-30% chance for showers
and storms along and north of a Llano to Austin line.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The post frontal environment should remain stable for Friday night
While there are some model hints of a light sprinkle, the signals are
not strong enough for mentioning. Temps will continue the trend of
the stronger front with MOS guidance lows and highs for Saturday
trending 4-6 degrees colder than in the previous runs. South winds
by 00Z Sunday and models have been more stable on guessing the max
temps bumping back to above normals.

Confidence is not as high on Monday temps as another front rolls in
early. The pattern aloft would suggest more clouds and potential for
rain as an upstream trough deepens into a strong upper low over TX
by 00Z Thursday. Light showers and overrunning is expected for Monday
and Tuesday with Tuesday night through early Thursday looking more
capable of deep convection. The PoPs Tuesday night through daytime
Thursday reflect model timing differences in the upper low and will
probably go up to categorical once the models narrow down the timing
of the conveyor belt of lift on the east side of the low.
Temperatures are expected to remain cool through the mid-week period,
so no attention to potentially strong storms or heavy rainfall is
warranted for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  70  82  51  71 /  20  -   20  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  69  82  52  72 /  20  -   20  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  71  85  53  73 /  20  -   10  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            86  67  72  46  68 /  10  -   20  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  69  83  55  77 /  -    0  -   10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  68  80  49  69 /  10  -   20  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  68  87  53  74 /  20  -   -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  69  84  52  73 /  20  -   10  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  71  86  55  72 /  10  -   10  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  71  84  55  73 /  20  -   10  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           89  70  86  56  74 /  20  -   10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks



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