085
FXUS64 KEWX 241707
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is noted on the radar over
the Rio Grande Plains early this morning with the rest of South
Central Texas rain free. These relatively quiet conditions will
exist into the morning, although a few showers or storms cannot be
ruled out particularly over the coastal and Rio Grande plains.

The mid-level shortwave trough which has been aiding in storm
development the past few days has shifted southeast with its axis
across the I-35 corridor today. This feature cuts off of the parent
trough and remains in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor or a bit
farther east tonight into Thursday. For today, this means the
highest chances for precipitation have shifted east with the best
chances east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Convection is
expected to be scattered in coverage in this area, with more
isolated showers or storms possible farther west. Many will miss out
on additional precipitation today, but those who do see it will
still have a chance to pick up a quick 1-3 inches which may lead to
isolated flooding.

Precipitation chances decrease west of I-35 this evening and
overnight with increased rain chances returning Thursday morning and
afternoon. High precipitable water values over 2 inches are
expected along and east of I-35 on Thursday with heavy rain
anticipated with storm activity continuing the daily threat for
isolated flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

An elongated mid level low overhead Friday, splits over the weekend
with one part moving northeast over the Plains and the other moving
west to the Big Bend and northern Mexico. Deep moisture with PWs of
1.4 to 2.1 inches persists. Residual surface boundaries, mesoscale
features, heating, and the low provide forcing of this moist airmass
to maintain chances of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
There is a potential per ECMWF/NAM of tropical type warm core rains
late night into early morning. Locally heavy rains are expected, due
to efficient rainfall processes, slow storm motions, and training of
cells. The heavy rains combined with soils becoming saturated from
previous days rains will result in a flood threat. There is also a
potential for gusty winds with the strongest storms. Extensive
cloudiness and areas of rain will keep daytime temperatures below
normal for late July.

Mid level ridging will push in from the east next week shoving the
low to the west ushering in drier air aloft and a more stable
airmass. Showers and thunderstorms become more isolated ending the
threat of heavy rains. More sunshine will allow daytime temperatures
to rise closer to normal as we approach early August. Lingering
moist soils from the recent rains make mixing with the drier air
aloft less efficient resulting in elevated afternoon heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing at the area airports this
afternoon. Seeing some SCT -SHRA mainly around The San Antonio sites
already. Will over this with a VCSH group and a TEMPO for -shra.
Can`t rule out some thunderstorms but will amend if necessary for
that. Activity should wane by 00z with mostly quiet conditions
overnight. Some MVFR or even IFR ceilings may be possible with
additional SCT -SHRA once again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  72  87  70 /  40  30  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  73  87  71 /  50  30  60  30
Burnet Muni Airport            88  70  85  69 /  20  10  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  75  96  75 /  20   0  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        87  71  84  70 /  30  20  50  20
Hondo Muni Airport             89  72  90  70 /  40  10  50  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  71  85  70 /  50  30  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  72  83  71 /  50  50  70  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  73  87  73 /  40  30  60  30
Stinson Muni Airport           90  74  88  73 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...29