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103
FXUS64 KEWX 121832 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.UPDATE...
Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue this afternoon and evening with FEW-SCT low clouds
along the I-35 corridor and only FEW high clouds out west at DRT. We
do expect some low cloud development early Sunday morning, but with
winds veering in the low-levels, we will only mention a TEMPO group
for MVFR at SAT and SSF between 09-12Z. We did mention SCT low
clouds at AUS Sunday morning, but will not include at DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Status Quo for today. Subtropical ridging centered nearby maintains
a dry subsident airmass aloft with no rain expected. Surface low
pressure in the Great Plains maintains a humid south-southeasterly
lower level flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico and its sea surface
temperatures in the mid 80s. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal with afternoon heat index values only mildly
elevated.

On Sunday, the Subtropical ridging drifts to the northwest allowing
a northerly flow aloft. This may allow a surface boundary to sag
south into our area. With a little less subsidence, though a still
moist airmass, weak upward forcing by the boundary and solar heating
may result in very isolated showers and thunderstorms. There are
some Hi-res models that show a few showers and thunderstorms over
the Hill Country to along the Escarpment where forcing is enhanced
by upslope flow. However, most other models show nothing at all. For
now, will increase POPs a little for Sunday afternoon, however not
enough to mention precipitation. Later forecasts will monitor trends
for possible mention. Not much change in temperatures is expected.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Hot and humid conditions persist. The upper ridge dominating the area
will shift west monday allowing for a weak boundary to move into the
eastern part of the state. Afternoon showers will be more limited to
areas east of our CWA, but a few sprinkles in our farthest counties
will not be out of the question. Little to no change in temperatures
through the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s and overnight
lows in the mid 70s.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  76  96  74 /   0  -   -   10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  75  96  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  97  75  97  74 /   0   0  -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            72  96  74  95  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 103  79 101  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  96  75  94  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             73  97  75  97  74 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  76  97  74 /   0   0  -   10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  96  77  97  76 /   0  -   -   20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           74  97  77  98  76 /   0   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...05
Decision Support...KCW