Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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572
FXUS64 KEWX 101735 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1135 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
All area sites are reporting MVFR cigs at the start time of this new
set of TAFs. These conditions are expected to remain through early
this evening. Clouds will then scattered out with VFR conditions
forecast for tonight into Wednesday for the I-35 terminals. For KDRT,
there is a window for VFR this evening through the overnight hours,
but guidance are suggesting for MVFR cigs to return by day break as
southerly flow comes back to the area. Otherwise, northerly winds
will prevail across most areas with speeds of 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

UPDATE...
We`ve been seeing a few lightning strikes along I-35. There is a bit
of elevated instability on the DRT sounding this morning. We have
added a mention of isolated thunderstorms for the area along and
southeast of I-35.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

AVIATION...
Rain showers starting to impact I-35 sites and in the vicinity of
DRT. Anticipating MVFR ceilings to build in within the next hour or
so, followed by brief periods of IFR. Light rain will remain over the
TAF sites through the morning hours and into the early afternoon.
Gusty north winds up to 25 knots is possible during this time frame.
Winds relax during the afternoon hours and VFR conditions return.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A cold front continues to push southward into the coastal plains
early this morning. Behind the front, light rain continues to
develop, with the most persistent activity noted over the southern
Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country. So far, rainfall amounts have
remained very light as forecast soundings show plenty of dry air in
the sub-cloud layer. As the morning progresses, the cold air will
deepen and with light rain continuing, the low-levels will begin to
saturate. This will allow more precipitation to reach the ground,
especially toward sunrise. We still expect rainfall amounts to remain
fairly low today and should see amounts of generally 1/4" or less
today. The models continue to show a decrease in rain during the
afternoon hours as the warm air advection pattern shuts off. High
temperatures today will be well below normal given light rain, cold
air advection and thick cloud cover. We expect highs in the lower 40s
in the Hill Country to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande.

For tonight, we will see a decrease in cloud cover along with a
decrease in wind speeds. Overnight lows will drop below freezing over
the southern Edwards Plateau, most of the Hill Country and adjacent
I-35 corridor north of San Antonio. Cool and dry weather is in store
Wednesday, with highs generally in the 50s to near 60 under mostly
clear skies.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Low temperatures Wednesday night are likely to drop below freezing
again for most of the Hill Country. We could even see a few spots
along the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin drop to near freezing.
Temperatures will warm slightly on Thursday, but we should still
remain below climatological normals.

A quick warmup to above normal temperatures is in store Friday, with
surface winds trending to more of a west to southwesterly direction.
The forecast for Saturday becomes a little uncertain as some of the
medium range models now show a weak cold front moving in during the
daytime hours. This is a new trend in the model data and we will
continue to monitor. For now, we will not make any significant
changes to the forecast, but may need to lower high temperatures on
Saturday if subsequent model runs remain consistent. Another surge of
cold air is likely Monday, but again the models differ when the
coldest air will arrive. We will trend toward the cooler MOS
guidance as the pattern does favor cold air moving down the central
plains states. For now, we should see highs a few degrees below
normal. There will also be a chance for showers with the next front.
As of now it looks like the best setup for rain will remain along and
east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              33  56  35  59  40 /  10  -    0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  32  56  34  60  38 /  10  -    0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     33  56  34  61  38 /  -   -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            29  55  32  59  37 /  -   -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           36  59  38  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        30  55  33  58  38 /  10  -    0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             32  60  34  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        32  57  33  60  38 /  -   -    0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   35  56  36  60  39 /  10  -    0  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       35  58  36  61  41 /  -   -    0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           35  57  36  61  41 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...05
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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