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630
FXUS64 KEWX 201136
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Streamer SHRA are along I-35 north of KBAZ and have introduced VCSH
mention for KAUS. The SHRA will dissipate around mid morning as the
the low level jet weakens. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA will redevelop along
the seabreeze over the Coastal Plains by midday and move toward I-35
during the afternoon. However, have not included mention as PROBs
are less than 30. MVFR CIGs TEMPO at KSAT/KSSF/KAUS and prevailing
at KDRT will become VFR skies late morning to midday. MVFR CIGs will
redevelop late evening into the overnight, then become VFR again by
midday Saturday. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 KTs increase to 10 to
15 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs by midday then decrease to 5 to 10 KTs
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over
Texas with a trough to the northwest. At the surface, winds were
generally from the south to southeast. The upper pattern will not
change significantly during this period. PW is forecast to remain
near 2.0 inches across parts of the eastern half of the area today
and tomorrow. This will mean chances for showers and thunderstorms
again in that area both afternoons. Chances look better today before
the upper ridge recovers with the dissipation of Imelda. Models are
showing decreasing temperatures, but we don`t see any real reason to
drop them more than a degree or two with the decreased tropical
subsidence.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The upper trough in the west will attempt to move the subtropical
ridge out of the region, but won`t have much luck. This trough will
ride over the ridge into the middle of the country. This will leave
the upper pattern essentially unchanged into the beginning of next
week. Since the pattern will remain the same, the weather will likely
also remain the same. There will be low chance POPs each afternoon
across the eastern half of the CWA Sunday through Tuesday. Models try
to bring lower temperatures, but it looks like this is more from an
attempt to trend temps toward climatology than any change of airmass.
We really don`t see any reason to reduce temperatures significantly
and near record high temperatures will continue into the early part
of next week. For the middle of the week, models show another upper
level trough developing over the southwest and moving into Texas.
This feature may bring a frontal boundary toward the region and a
better chance for rain to most of the CWA. Models, especially the
ECMWF, seem a little too aggressive with this precip. We will carry
low end POPs and hope they increase as we closer in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  75  96  74  96 /  20  10  20  -   20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  74  94  72  94 /  30  10  20  -   30
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  74  94  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  93  71  93 /  10  10  20   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  77 100  75  99 /  -   -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  73  94  72  94 /  10  10  20  -   20
Hondo Muni Airport            100  74  98  73  98 /  -   10  20  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport       101  73  95  72  94 /  30  10  20  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  74  94  72  94 /  40  -   20  -   30
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  95  75  95 /  10  10  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          102  77  97  75  98 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...05