Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 232036
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
236 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Surface high pressure will continue to build into south central
Texas this afternoon and tonight. We expect northerly winds to
decrease around sunset and generally remain light through the
overnight hours. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid
40s. A few spots in the Hill Country may approach freezing,
especially in low-lying areas where winds will be calm.

Surface high pressure begins to move east of our region on Friday.
This will result in winds transitioning to a more southeasterly
direction by afternoon. Look for highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
along with plenty of sunshine on Friday.

Southeasterly winds continue Friday night and this will help boost
overnight low temperatures a few degrees above climatological
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
On Saturday, a shortwave trough comes quickly across the Rockies and
into the Southern Plains. This will get southerly return flow set up
across South Central Texas, with both moisture and cloud cover on
the increase throughout the day and into the evening hours. There
will be a chance for some showers late Saturday evening into early
Sunday out ahead of the passage of the accompanying weak cold
front/trough axis on Sunday morning for areas generally along and
east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Following this, Sunday should be
generally pleasant, with skies clearing from northwest to southeast
behind the cold front and light northerly winds, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will reestablish themselves by Monday morning as
another upper level trough comes across the Rockies and into the
Southern Plains by late Monday night. High temps again will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Tuesday morning models show a
closed mid level low situated over the TX/OK border with an
accompanying cold front coming through the region from west to east.
This will lead to another chance for some showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two on Tuesday morning. Despite the cold front, high
temperatures are still expected to be around 70 degrees for most
locations on Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday looks to be pleasant with zonal flow aloft in between the
trough that impacted the region on Tuesday morning and the next
trough developing across the Desert Southwest. Afternoon highs will
likely be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday, but should still run a
few degrees above seasonal normals.

Models diverge quite a bit in how they handle the evolution of the
aforementioned trough across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. The
GFS shows the trough pivoting into South Central Texas on Thursday
with high chances for showers while the ECMWF digs it further south
into Mexico and keeps us dry on Thursday. For this forecast package,
will carry a chance for showers across much of the region on
Thursday, but confidence remains low at the present moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  66  43  65  52 /   0   0   0  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  37  65  41  66  51 /   0   0   0  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     41  66  43  66  52 /   0   0   0  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            38  65  41  63  47 /   0   0   0  -   20
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  68  45  66  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        39  65  40  63  50 /   0   0   0  -   30
Hondo Muni Airport             39  68  43  66  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        40  66  41  66  51 /   0   0   0  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   40  65  41  67  54 /   0   0   0  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       42  67  45  66  54 /   0   0   0  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           44  68  45  67  55 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...BMW
Decision Support...05


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