Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 182004
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface ridging sliding east of the region today has allowed for
south to southeast winds to resume. An upper trough extending from
Wyoming to northern Mexico this afternoon will quickly translate
east across Texas tonight, sending a weak cold front and attendant
pre-frontal trough into the region. Higher resolution guidance
members, including the SPC HREF ensembles, RAP, and NAM, generate a
few light showers as the base of the upper trough reaches the Hill
Country after midnight tonight. Overall column moisture appears
fairly marginal (precipitable water values less than 1.5 inches), but
mid-level saturation may allow for a few sprinkles to reach the
ground before dawn. A weakening surface pressure gradient ahead of
the frontal system`s arrival and recent rainfall will allow for
patchy fog to develop across much of the eastern two-thirds of the
region by sunrise, but this fog is not expected to last much longer
than mid-morning Saturday. Otherwise, warmer overnight lows are
expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

The upper trough`s quick eastward progression and rapidly modifying
post-frontal airmass (indicated by decreasing surface pressure
rises) mean this frontal boundary will likely stall or become
diffuse somewhere across the southern half of the region on Saturday.
The front looks to have almost no effect on temperatures, and in
fact may help contribute to some additional warming tomorrow as light
northerly winds aid in some downslope warming. Afternoon highs
tomorrow in the mid 80s to mid 90s may very well tie or set new high
temperature records. Convective temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
may allow for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop
along the stalled frontal boundary in the Coastal Plains, with
coverage possibly enhanced by a signal for a sea breeze/stalled front
collision. Visible satellite imagery shows a weak sea breeze
developed this afternoon and, with stronger surface heating tomorrow
combined with nearshore water temperatures in the lower to mid 70s,
expect farther inland penetration of the sea breeze on Saturday.
Showers may persist in the vicinity of this lingering boundary
Saturday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday, another trough crossing the Great Plains will result in
surface cyclogenesis and strengthening southerly flow. As the
surface cyclone ejects eastward with the parent trough during the
day, another cold front will surge south into the region Sunday night
and Monday morning with showers and storms developing along the
front. There still remains the potential for a few strong storms
edging into Central Texas along the front Sunday night with stronger
jet dynamics over North Texas. Dry and mild conditions are expected
mid- week behind Monday`s front. Another cold front looks to reach
the region again Thursday night or Friday morning with showers and
thunderstorms along it, sending another round of below normal
temperatures into the region on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  92  65  91  67 /  10  10  10  10  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  92  60  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  92  63  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            63  88  61  90  62 /  20  -    0  10  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  92  62  94  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  90  60  91  64 /  10  -   -   10  50
Hondo Muni Airport             66  94  62  94  67 /  10  10  10  -   30
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  92  63  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  90  67  92  68 /  -   10  20  10  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  92  66  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           66  94  66  91  68 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...BMW
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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