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000
FXUS64 KEWX 181621 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1121 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
A weak mid level shortwave currently moving through the northern
Hill Country and West Central Texas is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. A few of these showers and storms may
skirt northern areas of the Hill Country through the afternoon and
have included a mention in the forecast. Minor adjustments made to
hourly temp trend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

AVIATION...
At KAUS/KSAT/KSSF, high end IFR/MVFR CIGs mix out to VFR skies mid
morning. MVFR CIGs redevelop around midnight, then mix to VFR late
Saturday morning. S to SE winds 7 to 18 KTs will prevail with the
strongest winds during the day into early evening.

At KDRT, VFR skies prevail through tonight, then MVFR CIGs develop
late tonight. E winds 5 to 10 KTs become SE 10 to 18 KTs mid morning
and continue through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge extending from the Big
Bend region to the Northern Plains with northwesterly flow over
Texas. Farther west there was a trough from the Great Basin to
Southern California. At the surface, a front was stretched across
Texas from Lufkin to Dallas to Big Spring and into Eastern New
Mexico. Winds across our CWA were mainly from the southeast. The
upper ridge axis will move to the east of Texas during this period
turning the flow to southwesterly. Low level flow today will be from
the southeast and this will keep temperatures down a few degrees from
yesterday. The upper ridge will suppress any convection that forms
to the west from getting into our CWA. Saturday will continue dry
with the upper ridge still dominating.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The upper level trough will remain over the west and the upper flow
over Texas will be southwesterly over the weekend. Southeasterly low
level flow will continue into Sunday. A cold front will move into
Central Texas Sunday and stall across the region Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front Sunday and Monday and
there is a chance some of this convection will move into our CWA.
Southwesterly upper flow will continue into Monday. Tuesday there
will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms as the front
over Central Texas dissipates. The subtropical ridge will build up
over the Southern Plains Wednesday ending rain chances for the rest
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  72  93  74  91 /  -   10  -   20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  71  93  73  91 /  -   10  -   20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  70  93  72  91 /  -   -   -   20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            94  69  91  71  88 /  10  10  -   20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  70  95  74  92 /  -   10  10  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  71  92  72  89 /  -   10  -   20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             98  69  94  73  91 /  -   -   -   20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  71  92  72  91 /  -   -   -   20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  72  92  73  91 /  -    0   0  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  71  93  74  91 /  -   -   -   20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           98  71  94  75  92 /  -   -   -   20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB