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746
FXUS64 KEWX 180536
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the area airports through the period
as drier air remains in place across the region. Winds will also be
light through the period for most of the time. DRT should see a bit
higher winds in the afternoon hours and will include a new line in
TAFDRT for this. Otherwise, no impacts are anticipated for this valid
TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

UPDATE...
An upper low over south central Texas along with some moisture in the
mid-levels has been enough to generate some isolated showers across
the coastal plains. We have added a mention of showers to the
forecast for areas along/east of I-37 and south of I-10. Otherwise,
only minor changes have been made to adjust the dew points and winds
to closer align with recent observations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals through the
forecast period. Surface high pressure ridge over the area weakens as
a surface low pressure system over the southwest part of the Gulf of
Mexico pushes to the northeast and into the central portion of the
Gulf by Friday morning. Another surface low pressure system analyzed
over central Colorado early this evening is forecast to push to the
Southern Plains through the period while sending a surface trough
across west Texas on Friday resulting in a southeast to south wind
flow across the area on Friday afternoon. Light and variable winds
are anticipated across South Central Texas tonight through Friday
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
An upper level low is gliding across the area this afternoon. While
we are still relatively dry, areas out west may see a very isolated
shower with the residual mid level moisture in those areas. For the
rest of though, a dry and pleasant afternoon and evening can be
expected. Clearing skies and the drier air will help drop overnight
lows into the low to mid 50s. The wind shifts back out of the south
tomorrow, increasing moisture as we start another warming trend
heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday will be from the low to mid
80s across most of the area.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday night, an upper trough crosses into the Plains. This feature
drags a weak and dry cold front that grazes South Central Texas. This
will not mean much in the way of temperatures or precip, but will
briefly shift winds out of the north and temporarily drop humidity on
Saturday afternoon. Both Saturday and Sunday temperatures climb back
to upper 80s and low 90s. Meanwhile, a stronger upper low deepens as
it enters the Northern Plains Sunday night. As the upper low and
associated front progresses, moisture and instability increases in
our east allowing for increased chances for showers and storms ahead
of the front on Sunday night. With greater forcing along the front,
rain chances continue into Monday. Daytime highs are tempered back to
seasonal normals behind the front Monday through Thursday with
another cold front approaching on Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  89  63  89  66 /   0   0  -   20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  89  62  90  65 /   0   0  -   20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  90  63  90  65 /   0   0  -   20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            61  87  59  89  61 /   0   0   0  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           63  90  63  92  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  89  60  90  63 /   0   0  -   20  40
Hondo Muni Airport             63  92  65  93  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  90  62  90  65 /   0   0  -   20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  89  65  90  68 /   0   0  -   20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  90  66  90  67 /   0   0  -   10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           64  90  67  90  68 /   0   0  -   10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks