Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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038
FXUS64 KEWX 180228 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
928 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.UPDATE...
An upper low over south central Texas along with some moisture in the
mid-levels has been enough to generate some isolated showers across
the coastal plains. We have added a mention of showers to the
forecast for areas along/east of I-37 and south of I-10. Otherwise,
only minor changes have been made to adjust the dew points and winds
to closer align with recent observations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across area terminals through the
forecast period. Surface high pressure ridge over the area weakens as
a surface low pressure system over the southwest part of the Gulf of
Mexico pushes to the northeast and into the central portion of the
Gulf by Friday morning. Another surface low pressure system analyzed
over central Colorado early this evening is forecast to push to the
Southern Plains through the period while sending a surface trough
across west Texas on Friday resulting in a southeast to south wind
flow across the area on Friday afternoon. Light and variable winds
are anticipated across South Central Texas tonight through Friday
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
An upper level low is gliding across the area this afternoon. While
we are still relatively dry, areas out west may see a very isolated
shower with the residual mid level moisture in those areas. For the
rest of though, a dry and pleasant afternoon and evening can be
expected. Clearing skies and the drier air will help drop overnight
lows into the low to mid 50s. The wind shifts back out of the south
tomorrow, increasing moisture as we start another warming trend
heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday will be from the low to mid
80s across most of the area.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday night, an upper trough crosses into the Plains. This feature
drags a weak and dry cold front that grazes South Central Texas. This
will not mean much in the way of temperatures or precip, but will
briefly shift winds out of the north and temporarily drop humidity on
Saturday afternoon. Both Saturday and Sunday temperatures climb back
to upper 80s and low 90s. Meanwhile, a stronger upper low deepens as
it enters the Northern Plains Sunday night. As the upper low and
associated front progresses, moisture and instability increases in
our east allowing for increased chances for showers and storms ahead
of the front on Sunday night. With greater forcing along the front,
rain chances continue into Monday. Daytime highs are tempered back to
seasonal normals behind the front Monday through Thursday with
another cold front approaching on Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  82  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  83  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  82  61  90  63 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            52  81  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  85  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        51  81  62  89  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             54  83  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  83  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   52  83  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  83  64  90  66 /  -    0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           56  84  64  90  67 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt



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