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000
FXUS62 KILM 270708
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
308 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and scattered coastal showers will persist for the next
few days as a front remains stalled just off the coast. High
pressure will build in from the north bringing drier and warmer
weather in this weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wedge configuration now firmly established across all
the areas. The front, which was a focus for showers and or light
rain earlier continues to press southward thus there is little
impetus for measurable rainfall for the near term period. This
leaves essentially a temperature forecast and with overcast skies
expected through the period, the cooler numbers are preferred
basically lower 70s across the board. Numbers are a bit higher along
the immediate coast but these may need adjusted in time. Lows
Thursday morning in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough will extend southward from 500 mb low pressure
over the Great Lakes on Thursday. The old front that moved
through yesterday will still be sitting about 125 miles off the
Carolina coastline. The approach of the trough will help lower
pressures by 2-4 millibars along the stalled front, maintaining
a breezy northeasterly wind across the eastern Carolinas. Our low
level wind trajectories are maritime from off the Mid Atlantic
coast, ensuring plenty of low level moisture will feed across
the area. However the vertical extent of the moisture will end
at a sharp inversion between 4000-6000 feet AGL. This means
we`ll likely see considerable low level cloud cover throughout
the day, but only a smattering of coastal showers where higher
dewpoints should create a small region of conditional
instability below the inversion.

Thursday`s high temperatures are expected to reach the mid to
upper 70s. It`s worth noting the 00z NAM is much colder than
other models for Thursday afternoon and is being discounted as
an outlier given the cloud deck shouldn`t be overly thick.

Coastal shower chances will be maintained through Thursday
night as wind directions just below the inversion could veer
more easterly. Plenty of clouds will limit how far temperatures
will fall and forecast lows are 62-64 inland and mid 60s at the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper trough should move across the Carolinas Friday, then
offshore on Saturday. This will allow a large upper level ridge to
build in from the northwest. Moisture depth should lessen as
the inversion aloft strengthens and lowers by a couple thousand
feet. This should allow for more sunshine and warmer
temperatures to develop by Saturday and Sunday with rain chances
dipping below mentionable levels.

Forecast highs are near 80 by Saturday, then rise into the
lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Forecast lows are generally near
60 inland with lower to mid 60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current conditions are mostly MVFR ceilings as the cool air
wedge pattern is now well established across the area. Ceilings
want to drift down to perhaps IFR near sunrise then back to MVFR
shortly thereafter and remain in place.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to even IFR conditions will persist into
the late week period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Consistent and somewhat strong northeasterly
flow across all waters this morning on the order of 15-20 knots.
This will be in place basically through the period perhaps weakening
just a bit by Thursday morning. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet
with a few six footers possibly showing up across the outer most
waters later tonight for a few hours.

Thursday through Sunday...The front that moved across the area
yesterday will slowly move east of the Gulf Stream off Cape
Fear. The front`s southward extent will eventually move
completely through the Florida peninsula. High pressure over
Quebec will gradually build southward along the East Coast. The
pressure gradient between the high and the offshore front will
lead to an extended period of northeasterly winds, occasionally
reaching 20 knots sustained with higher gusts. We`ll be flirting
with Small Craft Advisory criteria at multiple points over the
next few days, especially south of Cape Fear. Even as wind
speeds begin to settle down toward 15 knots Saturday afternoon,
a new long period swell arriving from the southeast will add a
couple of feet of overall wave heights and could maintain the
near-Small Craft Advisory conditions into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding expected each day through the end of the
week as we approach a full moon on Friday, both across area
beaches and along the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown
Wilmington. Coastal flooding will occur with each evening high
tide, and potentially during morning high tides as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ056.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK