Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 061439
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1039 AM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively cooler weather will be observed today behind a cold
front that has dropped just south of the area. Weak low pressure
will develop near the area later tonight into early Friday
before lifting NE Friday afternoon and evening, bringing a
modest chance for showers. High pressure and dry weather will
follow for the weekend. A front should drop into the area Monday
and may linger into Tuesday before dry high pressure builds in.

&&

.UPDATE...
Made some modest tweaks to sky cover mainly over SE NC given
latest satellite trends. Otherwise very little change this
update with cooler weather from Nly flow. For our afternoon
package...Will be evaluating potential fire weather concerns
for Fri/Sat closely with our forestry partners and neighboring
offices.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Will see an influx of cooler and drier air today, although
enough moisture in the lowest 10k ft will provide post-frontal
stratocu and/or altocu that will dominate the skies for the
majority of the next 24 hrs. Max temps today will be a good 15
degrees lower than Wed highs. The sfc pg will relax quickly this
aftn and night with initially blustery N-NE winds diminishing
during this aftn thru tonight. A couple progressive and dynamic
mid-level s/w trofs will help carve out a longwave trof pattern
across the Eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. during Fri and going
into the next period. One of these 5H s/w trofs swings across
the area during Fri and develops a sfc low nearly overhead by
Fri daybreak, then intensifies it as it pushes ENE to off Cape
Hatteras by early Fri evening. Moisture is not all that deep
across the FA when all this takes place Fri but enough to
include low chance POPs for showers across mainly the ILM NC CWA
briefly late Thu night thru Fri morning. Dynamics from the s/w
trof will be the key for pcpn to occur especially during this
time of day when instability is not all that plentiful. Expect
sfc pg to tighten from SW to NE across the FA during Fri, in the
wake of the sfc low lifting ENE. Should see atleast breezy W to
NW winds encompassing the entire FA during the aftn. Max temps
Fri will be at or slightly lower than what`s being fcst for Thu
highs, ie widespread 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overall a quiet short-term period. Low pressure lifting off to
the northeast on Friday will bring weak cold air advection as
overnight lows drop into the mid and upper 40s across the area.
High pressure dominates on Saturday with clear skies and
temperatures in the upper 70s. High pressure pushes offshore on
Saturday night, but not before overnight temperatures have a
chance to drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rapid warming on Sunday as high pressure slips offshore and a
warm front lifts north of the area by Sunday evening. Cold front
approaches the area on Monday and is likely to bring some
shower activity, mainly late Monday afternoon into early
evening, highs in the mid 80s with southerly flow ahead of the
front. Models have been inconsistent over the last few days on
the evolution of this front across the area. Therefore with
future forecasts, PoPs may increase as current indications
support a slower frontal progression and the potential for the
boundary to stall near the area. Current models show the front
clearing the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning and
stalling offshore. This solution would keep us mostly dry on
Tuesday with a slight chance of precip during the afternoon as
the front attempts to lift northward. Temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday remain below normal in the cooler air behind the
front. Low pressure develops along the frontal boundary on
Tuesday night near the FL panhandle. This system will begin to
lift northward Wednesday morning as shower chances increase
throughout the day. High temperatures on Wednesday in the mid
and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deck of low to mid level clouds currently moving in from the
northeast, with brief MVFR ceilings at ILM and predominantly VFR
stratocumulus and altocumulus clouds across the area through
this evening. Decent low level moisture expected to be just
offshore, and may see MVFR ceilings at MYR and CRE this
afternoon. 5-10 kt NNE winds early this morning will weaken to 5
kts or less later this afternoon into tonight with varied
directions, with a weak sea breeze at coastal terminals this
afternoon. Slight chance of showers for SE NC, particularly ILM,
tonight into morning.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions from clouds and
possible pcpn late tonight into Fri due to a stalled front
just south of the area lifting back northward. A secondary,
dry CFP late Fri followed by dry high pressure thru the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...
Will have a weak but brief post cold frontal N-NE surge that
will last thru midday today. Windspeeds to remain below SCA
thresholds during this surge. There-after, the sfc pg relaxes
quickly and the sfc pressure pattern becomes somewhat diffuse
during this aftn and lasting thru much of tonight. Will
identify a dominate wind direction in lieu of going VRBL. Sfc
low to develop nearly overhead in the vicinity of the NC-SC
state border by Fri daybreak. The low is expected to intensify
as it lifts ENE to off HAT by Fri evening. In it`s wake, the sfc
pg will quickly tighten with it`s associated cold front exiting
the waters by mid-late aftn. Offshore winds will become dominant
during Fri with speeds increasing to possibly SCA levels, mainly
in the form of 25+ kt gusts during Fri aftn.

Short period (6 seconds or less) wind driven waves will dominate
sig. seas for the majority of this period. An underlying 2 ft
or less southeasterly swell will remain present during this
period and could briefly dominate late today thru tonight.


Friday Night through Monday...
Low pressure continues to pull away from the coast on Friday
night as high pressure builds into the area. NW winds 10-20
knots should remain below advisory threshold and will gradually
improve through Saturday morning. High pressure dominates on
Saturday with winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet. High
pressure quickly pushes offshore on Saturday night into Sunday
morning as winds become westerly, still around 10 knots.
Southerly flow develops on Sunday as high pressure moves further
offshore and the gradient increases with wind speeds 10-15
knots. Winds increase ahead of a cold front late Sunday into
Monday. Winds transition to southerly 15-20 knots with gusts to
25 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible as
the gradient tightens on Monday. Cold front pushes through the
area late Monday and winds become offshore and weaken slightly
to 10-15 knots.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21/MCW
UPDATE...MCW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/21


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