Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 042051
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
351 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will bring cooler air Friday into the weekend,
while low pressure passes south of the area, bringing some
clouds on Saturday. Dry weather will continue through much of
next week with a spring- like warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry wx will continue through the entire Near Term Period. A dry,
weak front drops through the area around midnight tonight with NW
winds shifting to the N. Even with a little bit of wind, a clear sky
will still allow temps to fall into the mid/upr 30s, slightly below
normal for early March. Weak low-level CAA continues behind the
front for Fri, leading to temps only maxing out in the mid 50s most
areas under a mostly sunny sky. Some increasing clouds then for Fri
night as moisture increases in the WSW flow aloft, but low and mid
levels are well too dry for any precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An already highly amplified trough will deepen further through the
period. Low pressure will develop as a result well offshore, far
enough to preclude any rain chances. Cold advection will be fostered
by the setup however keeping both daytime highs and nighttime lows
some 10 degrees below climatology despite ample sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong mid level trough will be off the coast by the start of the
period allowing for building heights from the west while at the
surface high pressure remains overhead to inhibit mixing leading to
one last cool day. High moves off the coast Tuesday but not by much.
Even so, a little bit of the low level warm advection should make it
to the surface for a more seaosnable afternoon. This setup is
relatively unchanged as we round out the period. Each afternoon will
tack on a few degrees from the previous and a few low level
diurnally formed cumulus clouds will start dotting the sky.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and relatively light offshore winds
continue this afternoon. A dry cold front drops down from the
north this evening, with light winds turning northerly behind
it for overnight into tomorrow. Expected to be too dry and
windy for any visibility concerns this period.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Low pressure to the south may bring
ceilings on Saturday, but right now it appears these clouds will
be in VFR range with little or no restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday Night: Sub-SCA conditions continue over the next
several days as sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the NW. A
weak front drops through the waters tonight, with weak CAA allowing
for occasional gusts to 25 kt but mainly up to 20 kt. Winds then
just 10-15 kt for Fri/Fri night as the high moves closer to the
area. Seas consistently 2-4 ft during this timeframe, with the 4
footers mainly just following the fropa late tonight into Fri
morning.

Saturday through Tuesday... Northerly winds abate quickly on
Saturday as high pressure moves in from the north. A small southward
push of this high will allow the still northerly winds to increase
back to more typical speeds. The offshore fetch meanwhile will
preclude any signficant building of wave heights. The lightest winds
of the period then slated for Monday as the center of the high
arrives. Its gradual progress offshore on Tuesday to veer winds to
the SE.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EST Friday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ILM



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