Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251427
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
927 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Center of high pressure will migrate across the area late this
afternoon and off the Carolina coasts tonight and Monday. After
a cool Sunday, milder temps will overspread the area thru
Wednesday with breezy southwest flow developing. A cold frontal
passage will bring rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday,
followed by temporary high pressure into Friday. Low pressure
may develop off the Carolina Coasts and affect the area late Fri
into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes made with the latest update, although did lower
dewpoints a bit. Main forecast challenge are the low clouds over
SE NC which will slowly erode later this morning and afternoon,
but likely impact temps to some degree.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Exiting mid level s/w trof well off the coast attm, and pulling
further away. Pocket of low level moisture, ie. stratus,
dropping SE-S, is on a trajectory that will affect mainly
southeast NC and local waters, possibly portions of the
Northeast SC CWA. Via model time height displays, this low level
cloud deck should disperse by late morning or early aftn as dry
air under NW flow aloft, mixes down to help scour out this
deck. Scattered to broken mid to upper level clouds (no pcpn)
within WNW-NW flow aloft, may affect the FA late tonight as
a dampening mid-level s/w trof passes just north of the FA.
Center of sfc high pressure to migrate over head this afternoon,
to off the Carolina Coasts by daybreak Mon. The CAA early on
will become neutral during this period. Temps will run 1 to
possibly 2 categories below normal thru tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday morning, a high-pressure center will be located off
the Southeast United States coast, the high will shift to the
northeast, and the area will be dominated by southwest flow. A
weak shortwave will pass across the region late Tuesday,
bringing a slight chance of showers off the coast and over
portions of Darlington and Marlboro counties. This flow will
allow the high temperatures to reach the lower 70s and upper 60s
along the beaches. Monday night`s low temperature will be in
the upper 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. On Tuesday
night, lows will rise into the mid to upper 60s, this is the
result of warm air advection ahead of a surface front located in
the upper Midwest to southern Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 mb west-southwest flow will continue over the region. A
short-wave trough in the flow will move from the Great Plains
on Wednesday morning to off the Atlantic coast by Thursday
afternoon. At the surface, the cold front mentioned in the
short-term forecast will quickly move off the coast Wednesday
night. This will bring a chance of showers to the area on
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Following the cold front, high pressure centered over the
Mid-Mississippi Valley will shift off the New Jersey coast.
This will bring easterly flow across the region on Friday and
Saturday. The easterly flow will provide enough moisture, and
this flow, combined with weak upper vertical motion, will
provide a chance of showers on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture trapped within the low levels will result in
stratus, then stratocu later this morning thru roughly 17Z. NC
terminals will experience the MVFR cloud threat around 1500 ft,
more-so than the SC terminals. By early aftn, majority of the
terminals should be VFR, except ILM may last a tad longer. SKC
this evening will give way to altocu in the 7k to 9k ft ceilings
thru the overnight. Winds generally NW-NE 5 to 9 kt, becoming
SE-SW around 5 kt in the aftn and possibly going calm during the
late evening and overnight as the center of sfc high straddles
across the Eastern Carolinas and adjacent waters.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected. Breezy SW winds
expected Tue thru Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Improving wind and sea conditions expected this period as an
elongated center of sfc high pressure pushes to and across the
area waters during this period. Seas dominated by wind driven
short period waves early on, transitioning to a 7 to 9 second
period small but dominating Easterly swell.

Monday through Thursday Night...
Southwest flow will dominate the coastal waters Monday through
Wednesday evening. Wind speeds of 15 knots will increase to 15
to 20 knots ahead of a cold front, and small craft conditions
are expected Wednesday. Winds will become northwest behind the
cold front and veer to the northeast by Thursday. These winds
will diminish seas below 6 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RH


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