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000
FXUS62 KILM 240239
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1039 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon
into tonight, before a drying trend takes hold through this
weekend. Better rain chances come around by early next week.
Temperatures linger near normal for late June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Latest 11.2-3.9 micron sat imagery shows the developing and
slowly sliding southward, a growing area of low clouds, ie.
ceilings less than 3k ft. This pocket of low level moisture,
below 925mb, is illustrated by various model rh time height
displays over various locations across the ILM CWA. As a
result, have hit the cloudiness a bit harder during this late
evening thru the overnight period. Indications are by 10am,
much of this cloud deck should have scoured out, with an
eventual scattered Cu field in it`s place as the days
insolation commences. Latest 88d trends indicate POPs
likely can be lifted for the remainder of the night. Very
little tweaking needed for winds and temps with some dewpoint
adjustments based on trends. Fog shouldn`t be an issue given
lack of rainfall and winds semi-active overnight, even across
the far inland locales.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multiple boundaries are criss-crossing the Carolinas this
afternoon. North to northeast low level winds behind the most
significant boundary across South Carolina have set up a weak
convergence axis across the eastern Piedmont into the interior
coastal plain. Although persistent mid level clouds have reduced
insolation and held SBCAPE values to barely 1000 J/kg here,
there is still potential for scattered showers and t-storms to
develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Forecast PoPs have been reduced to 20-30 percent, but there is
still a small chance gusty winds could develop in convection due
to marginal inverted-V soundings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad ridge aloft in the ArkLaTex region doesn`t really move
much this period, but alas, heights thicken ever so slightly.
Surface high pressure in the mid-Atlantic starts to push
offshore, which maintains some rare ENE flow for late June.
Subsidence and a cap in the 850-700mb layer keeps the forecast
dry, with only a few cumulus clouds to worry about. Lows both
nights linger in the mid-to-upper 60s. Highs Saturday in the
mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rest of the weekend continues to look dry, with surface high
pressure moving further east offshore. Winds start to build
more of an ESE trend Sunday, which helps high temperatures kick
up about a degree or two from the previous day.

Monday, a cold front moves through Appalachia and the Piedmont
region. Guidance continues to slow down the progression of this
system, with the bulk of rain and thunderstorms reserved for
Monday night and especially Tuesday/Wednesday. Cumulus and
cirrus clouds increase Monday, with pre-frontal warming allowing
highs to shoot up into the low-to-mid 90s. Clouds and rain keep
highs in the upper 80s through the rest of this period, with
the front stalling near the coast, and several surface lows
forming along the boundary. Lows remain consistent in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this 24 hr period except for possible MVFR
ceilings in the 09Z-14Z time-line due to onshore flow in the
lower levels. It may transition to a Cu field at VFR ceilings
after 14Z and continuing into the aftn as a resultant wind
boundary, aka sea breeze, pushes inland. In it`s wake, will see
SKC conditions dominate. Thru 02z, will include either vcsh or
vcts, dependent on KLTX 88d and surrounding radar trends.
Pressure pattern and gradient yield Easterly winds around 7 kt,
backing to the NE 5 kt or less overnight. Fri will feature NE
winds 5 to 9 kt, except with the inland progression of the sea
breeze, winds become E-SE around 10 kt midday thru early
evening at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected thru the period except for MVFR
conditions possible from showers and tstorms Tue as a frontal
boundary approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...A weak seabreeze this afternoon has veered
wind directions near the coast more directly onshore, while out
toward 20 miles offshore wind directions remain more northerly.
Winds should average northeasterly in direction tonight with
speeds increasing to 10-15 knots overnight as a weak surge makes
its way down the coast from Virginia. Directions will veer more
directly onshore with a weak seabreeze again Friday afternoon,
but with little change in speed.

A short period wave produced by yesterday`s breezy southwest
winds continues to feed into the area and has produced wave
heights of 2-3 feet inside 20 miles from shore, with the Frying
Pan Shoals buoy offshore showing waves averaging almost 5 feet.
These larger waves should continue through the evening before
gradually diminishing overnight into Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday...ENE winds continue through the
weekend, generally at 5-10kts, pulsing up to 15kts during the
day. By Monday, a cold front starts to approach the area,
stalling near the coast by Monday night into Tuesday. Winds at
this point veer southerly at similar speeds. Seas hold steady
at 2-3ft throughout this period, with no hazards in sight at
the moment.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/IGB