Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
003 FXUS62 KILM 102355 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 755 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated today and Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Storms were spreading into the Pee Dee and heading toward the Grand Strand area as daylight comes to an end. Some of the storms reached severe thresholds and so far a report came in of a tree down in interior Georgetown (see LSR for details). Otherwise forecast on track for showers and storms to reach the coast between 9pm and midnight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Instability is increasing across the area as temperatures (outside of FLO`s cloud cover) have warmed well into the 80s with sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. RUC/SPC meso page already indicating 2000J/Kg of SBCAPE on our way to 3000. Shear remains nearly non- existent though so storm organization is not expected. Even so with such strong instability a wet microburst tough to rule out, as indicated by SWODY1 from SPC showing Marginal/5% wind. Model guidance isn`t particularly favoring any given location where convection is favored (the WRF hits the seabreeze the hardest though) and so our forecast will do the same. Showers may linger longer than normal as we have pieced of shortwave energy traversing the area through 12Z. Some guidance even hints that POPs are warranted all night in the Cape Fear Region. Tomorrow looks to offer a very similar setup but with slightly weaker energy aloft which will translate to about a 10 percent lowering of the POPs, which is still above average. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Broad troughing will maintain the potential for daily afternoon showers and storms across the area this weekend. Modest storm motion and deep moisture in the vicinity of convective development could lead to some localized heavy rainfall amounts through the weekend. While the threat of any significant flooding is small, several days of repeated activity over the same area could result in a cumulative impact by Saturday or Sunday. Weak dry air advection over portions of NC will bring enough dry air in the mid levels to be concerned with an isolated strong downdraft in the taller storms on Saturday. SPC maintains the area in general thunder, but this appears to be a similar areal and generalized threat to previous days. Hot with highs in the low to mid 90s each day with heat indices approaching 100; it`s July. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Northwesterly flow develops on Sunday around an upper high to our south. This should produced some more organized convection at some point during afternoon. An approaching cold front on Monday and Tuesday suggest this will be the best day for organized activity. Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue each day outside of those more enhanced triggers for development. The front lingers in the area on Tuesday through the end of the week. Hard to say what the rest of the week looks like in detail, but unsettled weather should generally be the trend. Highs in the lower 90s each day, becoming around 90 during the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thunderstorms with reduced vsbys, ceilings and gusty winds were affecting the LBT terminal and will affect CRE and MYR through 03-05z. Some of these storms may make it to FLO and ILM but less confident in flight restrictions there. The activity is forecast to last a bit longer into the evening as a mid level disturbance approaches from the west tonight, possibly affecting ILM on on off through the overnight hours. Confidence is lower regarding possible fog formation tonight, but included some some lower clouds and fog, mainly at inland terminals. Winds will be SW to W through tonight with a backing back to S-SW Fri aftn. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Friday... Bermuda High and Piedmont trough to bring southwesterly winds through the period. Frying Pans Shoals buoy 41013 is currently showing waves dominating at 5 and 7 seconds, the former out of the southwest and the latter southeast, also expected to continue largely unchanged through the short term. Friday Night through Tuesday... Bermuda high will be in control throughout much of the upcoming week. Southwesterly flow will generate a 3-4 feet through early Saturday with weakening flow on Saturday and lower seas of 2-3 feet. With an upper ridge to our southwest late this weekend, seas will trend downward to around 1-2 feet as surface winds trend to a more southerly direction. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...MBB/21