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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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896 FXUS62 KILM 242321 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 721 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will continue through the remainder of the week as southerly winds bring tropical moisture northward. A cold front could move through the area Saturday, bringing unseasonably comfortable temperatures and humidity early next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes with the latest update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Swath of convection was organizing from Bladen county south through Williamsburg county early this afternoon, and will transition generally northward through late afternoon. Will maintain likely PoPs through the overnight period, highest inland this evening, then increasing eastward after midnight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Florence, Darlington, Marlboro, Dillon and Robeson counties through Thursday evening, although localized flooding may occur in any location impacted by one or more of these heavy downpours. The Great Lakes trough does swing towards the east Thursday, which will push the western Atlantic ridge a bit to the east, but overall, the forecast will remain largely unchanged, as scattered showers and tstms should blossom across the area once again. Will maintain likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday afternoon, highest chances inland. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall the main components of the forecast remain in place. A very moist southwest flow in place Thursday Night into Friday followed by a westerly flow with more of a northerly flow developing late in the period or early in the extended. Pops and qpf amounts remain challenging but it appears the highest chances occur overnight Thursday and again later Friday when a back door front meanders into the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Still good agreement on the cool down for the extended period with lows dipping into the upper 60s both Sunday and Monday mornings with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Some decent agreement on dry conditions these days as well. Beyond this a return to climatology both from a temperature and rainfall/chances standpoint. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected at the SE NC and NE SC terminals, especially near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR, as the pattern remains about the same as the last few days. The best rain/low cloud chances should be inland at KLBT/KFLO the first part of tonight and then closer to the coast later tonight into Thursday morning, before shifting back inland later Thursday. Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Through Thursday... Bermuda high will shift a bit to the east by Thursday, but only tangible change should be a little more of a southwest wind trajectory. Seas will remain 3-4 ft, composed of a SE swell and SSW wind wave. Isolated showers/tstms this evening may become more numerous late tonight into Thursday morning. Thursday Night through Monday... Winds and seas should remain well below any headline criteria through the period. A southwest flow will be in place through late Friday into early Saturday when a back door front slips south and a northeast flow develops. Winds should be northeast from this point forward. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet if not more like 2-3 feet in time. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ087. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for SCZ017-023-024-032. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJB MARINE...SHK/CRM