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000
FXUS62 KILM 050241
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1041 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime weather will prevail this week, with warm
and humid conditions, along with a chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE/...Slightly stronger low-level winds and column moisture
encroaching from the west ahead of an upper trough, and based
on a few pop-ups SW of our zones, have kept a isolated chance of
a shower or TSTM overnight, mainly far interior. In partially
clear areas over damp ground and light wind, patches of mist
and fog likely, but not widespread, especially with advancement
of clouds late.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The broad southwest flow between mid level troughing to the
west and the Bermuda Ridge in the Atlantic will continue more or
less through the period. This of course is nothing uncommon
this time of year and will allow the pattern of afternoon and
evening convection sans this afternoon to resume. Seems there is
just enough subsidence to keep things dry this evening. Highs
will be around 90 and lows in the middle 70s or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Atlantic ridge easing in from the east early Thurs will stream
in some moisture on the western edge while a mid to upper trough
remains to our west. This trough will shift eastward by Fri as
a northern stream shortwave pushes through the Northeast CONUS
and pushes a boundary south and east. Overall, expect these
features to produce greater coverage of clouds and showers and
thunderstorms on Thurs and Fri. Warm and humid weather will
continue with daytime temps near normal, but affected by
increased clouds and thunderstorms. Overnight temps will be
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid to upper trough axis slides off the coast leaving generally
quieter weekend weather as weak ridging takes place. Overall
expect main focus of aftn storms along sea breeze boundary and
trough inland. Mid level trough may dig down a bit into early
next week as Piedmont trough strengthens. This could produce an
uptick in diurnal convection, but generally expect scattered
coverage. Temps will be right around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Patches of dense fog aft 8z, not widespread, to dissipate
by 13z. Light wind becoming SSE-SE 7-12 knots in afternoon with
isolated TSRA. Convection should become focused along the sea
breeze front and Piedmont trough, weakening aft 23z-24z. Storms
this TAF cycle will move generally east.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
The summertime pattern resumes with a southerly component to
the winds through the period. With a light pressure pattern wind
speeds will be on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range with some
afternoon increase via the sea breeze Wednesday. Significant
seas will be 2-3 feet.

Calm winds in a weak gradient field will make for a benign
weather pattern for mariners this week. Seas will generally be
2-3 feet with no significant swell likely. The only notable
threat for boaters will be the elevated thunderstorm chances
each day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...8
MARINE...RGZ/SHK