Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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224
FXUS62 KILM 162342
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
742 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a long stretch of seasonable and rain-
free weather. Temperatures slowly warm during the week as center
of the high pressure shifts east of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a center of high pressure over
Savannah, GA, which is keeping the area sunny and dry. Meanwhile, a
broad trough over the west-central Atlantic continues to move
further offshore. The northeasterly flow will soon break, and winds
will veer towards the ESE. Upper ridging pushes into the Southeast
from the Plains, which will be the main story for the near term
period and beyond. Meanwhile, a weak front pushes southward into the
Carolinas, but is expected to stall before it reaches this area. Dry
weather continues. Lows tonight dip into the mid 50s, to near 60 at
the coast. Radiational cooling may bring some of the typical cold
spots in southeast NC down near 50.

Ridge starts building on Monday, so expect more sunshine and high
temperatures tick up a little bit more to near 80, with mid-to-upper
70s possible near the beaches. Some residual moisture and lift from
the aforementioned weak front could create some sprinkles for
extreme north/northwest regions of the area, generally along and
north of a line from Lumberton to Bennettsville to Darlington.
However, there is much higher confidence on everyone staying dry.
Lows Monday night in the upper 50s inland and lower 60s at the
coast. All temperatures still remain below normal for mid-May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Northwesterly flow aloft through the period while surface winds
initially out of the northeast become light and variable. Neither
are normally a great setup for rainfall in our area. Though there
will be some weak embedded shortwaves in the mid levels. Normally
such paltry spokes of vorticity wouldn`t really merit any POPs but
given that forecast soundings do show pretty deep moisture in place
(perhaps erroneously in the NW flow) the 20 POPs from continuity
have been maintained. Non-measurable sprinkles appear much more
likely. Temperatures will be right about where they should be
according to the calendar by both day and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The perfect pattern for worsening our drought setting up over the
long term. A well defined mid level omega block develops with the
ridge strengthening overhead through at least Friday. Thereafter
model solutions diverge somewhat regarding the downstream trough
over the Atlantic. It is a common model bias to attack strongly
established ridges too quickly and so the slower/drier solutions (in
this case the ECMWF) is favored. Rain chances will thus remain zero
through the period. The center of the surface high remains to our
north until the weekend so the gradual warming trend will be a
function of full solar insolation especially since we`re only about
a month away from the year`s highest sun angles. This will also
prevent any early season mugginess so common with such a strong
ridge affecting the weather-which will also keep the overnight lows
fairly seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR for the next 24 hours. Light wind shifts to the south
overnight with occasional gusts around 15 kt Monday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR for all terminals this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night...Winds become more ESE as surface high
pressure moves offshore. Sustained speeds near 10kts during the day
relax to 5-10kts during the night. Seas remain consistent through
the period, with 1-2ft waves at the coast and 2-3ft waves located
20nm away from shore.

Tuesday through Friday... Little to no changes on surface weather
charts means little to no changes in wind and wave conditions
locally through the period. A very large area of surface high
pressure will set up to the north beneath an omega block in the mid
levels. This will keep winds out of the east while the stronger
fetch and resulting swells stay south and east of the Carolinas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...ILM



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