Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281518
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1120 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring quiet and mild weather this
evening. The remnants of Zeta will move across the southern
Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area
early Friday bringing scattered showers. Cooler and drier weather
will arrive on Saturday with a slight chance of showers returning on
Sunday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with this update. Previous forecast on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main concern for the next 36 hours is potential for severe weather
Thursday with the remnants of Zeta moving through the Carolinas.

Quiet weather on tap for today outside some locally dense morning
fog and overcast clouds, but clearing should occur during the mid to
late morning hours and lead to a nice fall day.  Highs today in the
upper 70s to low 80s is a little warmer than average for late
October.

The weather gets more interesting Thursday as the remnants of
tropical system Zeta approach the region. With the influx of the
tropical air mass, warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s and
increasing dew points into the 70s will increase the humidity factor
will give a more summer feel to the weather.  Chances for rain
increase by mid to late morning and chances for isolated thunder
possible during the afternoon.  An assessment of model soundings
show plenty of moisture and lower instability aloft, however plenty
of lower level speed shear could lead to a damaging wind threat and
a chance for some tornadoes.  While the center of Zeta is progged to
move well to the west of the forecast area, some atmospheric spin
aloft is available.  While all ingredients do not necessarily line
up Thursday late morning and afternoon, there is a non zero chance
for some stronger storms to develop and produce a damaging wind gust
and a few tornadoes.  Now would be a good time to ensure multiple
ways of receiving warnings and be weather aware for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front over the southern US will follow the remnant low late
Thursday and Thursday night. The area is likely to see breezy winds,
scattered showers, and a slight chance of a thunderstorm with warm
moist air ahead of the front priming the atmosphere with elevated
weak instability. With the approaching front, increased shear, and
low-level wind field primed by the previous remnant low, an isolated
damaging wind gust or brief tornado could be possible. Cold front
pushes through the area by Friday morning as cooler and drier air
rush into the area and keeps temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool and dry air will continue to persist into Saturday with plenty
of sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures. Coastal trough
will develop on Sunday ahead of another strong cold front. Isolated
showers are possible on Sunday afternoon, mainly along the coast
with the weak trough building inland. Strong cold front will move
through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cold air. Strong cold air advection will funnel
into the area and keep temperatures well below-normal; some areas
could remain in the 50s all day. On Monday night, clearing skies
will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s or upper 30s.
Some areas could wake up to the first front of the season on Tuesday
morning, but light winds overnight could be enough to limit the
radiational cooling potential. Cooler temperatures will continue
through mid-week, finally ushering in consistent fall-like
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. An MVFR ceiling
is possible after midnight as return flow begins. Thursday, an
increasing southerly gradient throughout the day, with gusts over 20
knots by afternoon. Look for isolated showers at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning
hrs Thu from ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri,
expect Zeta remnants to push across the Carolinas with rain
likely followed by a CFP and mainly dry wx for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Thursday...Benign sea conditions today with
waveheights on the order of 1 to 2 feet and generally onshore winds
below 10 kts. Conditions worsen tonight into Thursday with the
approach of the remnant Zeta system inland and will lead to an
increase of winds and waves heading into Thursday.  Strong
likelihood of needing a small craft advisory for inexperienced
mariners and smaller vessels navigating the coastal waters Thursday
with seas between 6 and 8 feet and south/southwest winds 15 to 25
kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Thunderstorms are also a
possibility with locally higher winds and waves, and a potential for
some waterspouts Thursday.

Thursday Night through Sunday... Breezy SW winds over the coastal
waters 20-30 knots will lead to the onset of SCA conditions and seas
building 5-8 feet. Winds will quickly veer, becoming NW by Friday
morning, and northerly at around 20 knots by late afternoon. Seas
will remain elevated through Sat with NE winds 15-20 knots. These NE
surges tend to be slightly stronger than models indicate, so will
keep the possibility of SCA conditions overnight Saturday into early
Sunday. Weak coastal trough will develop on Sunday and lead to the
development of onshore flow, finally bringing a break in potential
SCA conditions. Showers on Sunday will develop ahead of the next
cold front which may bring another round of SCA conditions early
next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/21


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