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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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833 FXUS62 KILM 261103 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 703 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The threat for heavy rain continues today but ends later Saturday as a cold front moves through. After a dry Sunday with low humidity next week will feature a gradual ramping up of humidity and rain chances while temperatures hover near average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Water vapor imagery shows a deformation zone just east of the forecast area along with ample moisture in place from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast United States. At the surface, a front will drift into the area later today. The synoptic boundary coupled with the sea breeze set in a very moist environment will support the development of additional showers/t-storms. Impressive PWATs are expected to be in place today, and given a little more low-level focus with the aforementioned front in the vicinity heavy rainfall is likely. As a result, there will be no changes to the Flood Watch. The front will begin to push south of the area late tonight as high pressure across New England ridges southward into the Carolinas. PWATs will lower in response as the deep moisture is suppressed to the south and east. Overall, we will finally see a change to the pattern that has been in place across the area for a few days. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A few light showers may linger on Saturday as the cold front sinks to our south. This will have to be resolved in future forecasts as the possibilities are rather pronounced. Solutions like the WRF still provide us with inches of rain (mainly along the coast) whereas the GFS is generally rain-free. With dewpoints dropping quickly from the north the drier solution certainly seem more plausible. How strong the wave along the boundary will also dictate rain coverage and amounts and the WRF just seems to strong. For the remainder of the period some unseasonable NE winds will bring dewpoints below 70. Sunday`s highs looking seasonable but both nights will be almost a category cooler than climatology. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some weak shortwave energy will begin affecting the area Monday. There may not yet be enough moisture return for meaningful rain chances over much of the area so POPS are being kept quite low. Additional moisture and shortwave impulses Tuesday should bode well for better coverage of convection. Weak mid level trough will remain in the Eastern U.S. for the remainder of the period. The entire long term will thus feature gradually increasing coverage of showers and storms while temperature deviations from normal are minimized. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There will be pockets of IFR CIGs, primarily KFLO and KLBT through approximately 14Z. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are possible in/near any showers and t-storms today and this evening as a front moves across the area. Could see pockets of IFR-MVFR given residual low-level moisture in the wake of the front during the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail this weekend as a drier air-mass attempts to build across the area. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Convection will provide for local enhancement to wind and seas across the adjacent waters at times through the period, but especially tonight as a front pushes across the waters. The frontal passage will bring a change to the winds from SWly flow today, veering to a Nly direction later tonight. Seas will generally range from 3-4 feet today, then around 3 ft tonight. Saturday through Tuesday night... Cold front pushes through on Saturday turning winds to the NE. The resulting wind waves along with a SE swell could lead to occasional steep wave faces. This holds true on Sunday, whereas a more typical southerly component returns on Monday. A weak pressure pattern late in the period will keep swells minimal as light southerly winds continue locally. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032- 033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SRP MARINE...ILM