Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021357
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
957 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Colin will crawl northeast along the South
Carolina coast today bringing numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is possible. After this system
moves away from the area early Sunday, scattered thunderstorms
and warm temperatures will continue across the Carolinas as
Bermuda High Pressure remains offshore.

&&

.UPDATE...
Minimal Tropical Storm Colin continues, with the center of the
storm now located over Georgetown County, SC. Northwesterly
shear has pushed the bulk of Colin`s showers and thunderstorms
well east of this center. Even so, scattered showers and the
occasional rumble of thunder are finding their way onshore.
Overall, we`re expecting very minor impacts to the area through
this evening, including gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of showers with isolated TSTMs currently sliding into the
area, north of Tropical Storm Colin off the SC coast.
Convection continues to grow near the center of circulation, and
latest model guidance is still running on the low side with
regards to wind compared to current obs. So trended the wind
forecast up near the coast, where gusts up to 30-35 mph are
expected. As for the precip, tall skinny CAPE and slow storm
motion will favor another day of minor flash flood potential,
especially near the coast closer to Colin. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) still puts the coast in a Marginal Risk
(threat level 1/4) of excessive rainfall. Rain chances continue
into tonight near the coast while diminishing farther inland
where some drier air works into the area; especially aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure along the coast will be exiting the area to the
northeast early Sunday. Partly cloudy skies through midday will
allow for temps to warm into low 90s, combining with elevated
dewpoints to give us heat indices in the 100-105 range.
Scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon with heating
and along sea breeze, but best chance of rain/storms will come
from the north late afternoon into evening hours as a decent
upper shortwave approaches from the NW late Sunday, aiding in
pushing a weak front into the area. Localized flooding possible
with forecasted rainfall around 0.5-1" on average for all but
our southern most areas.

With plenty of low level moisture and lingering front in the
area, rain chances continue into Monday. Upper ridge may build
into the area a bit from the west during the day which could
limit coverage, but still expect at least widely scattered
diurnal thunderstorms Monday. Highs around 90 degrees. Daytime
convection will die down quickly around sunset with loss of
heating, which would be beneficial to Independence Day
celebrations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pretty stagnant weather pattern for Tuesday through Friday,
with an upper ridge over the southern US and multiples rounds of
impulses moving across from the northwest over the ridge
throughout the week. Currently Tuesday has the lowest expected
coverage of diurnal convection with pops around 40% as PW values
drop slightly. Of course widespread soaking rain isn`t in the
forecast, but hopefully the extended period of convection gives
us enough rainfall to at least put a dent in our ongoing
drought. Heat indices each day forecasted in the triple digits
away from the coast with near to slightly above normal temps and
dewpoints in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tropical air mass remains in place through the 12Z TAF period,
leading to periodic MVFR and IFR cigs along with occasional
shras and tstms. Some patchy fog is also possible inland this
morning over areas that received plentiful rainfall from
previous days. Winds gusty at times today as minimal Tropical
Storm Colin slides along the coast...gusts up to 25-35 kt at
coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR through the weekend/early
next week, especially at the coast. This due to better chances
for afternoon/early evening showers and tstms as well as early
morning onshore movement of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: As mentioned above, model guidance is under-
doing the winds with Tropical Storm Colin centered to the
south. Expect gusts up to 30-40 kt along with seas aoa 6 ft; a
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. There is also an
increased risk of waterspouts. A couple occurred yesterday just
offshore of SC Lowcountry and the Grand Strand. A very similar
atmosphere persists today so this will need to be closely
monitored. The wave spectrum mainly consists of a southerly wind
wave due to the aforementioned low pressure system, and a 1-2
ft SE 8-9 second swell.

Sunday through Wednesday...Low pressure offshore will be
exiting the area to the northeast early Sunday. Southwest winds
10-15 kts Sunday, with gusts to 20kts in the afternoon, will
become variable Sunday night into Monday as a weak front drops
south into the area. Winds remain under 10 kts before 10-15 kts
southwest winds redevelop during the day Tuesday around Bermuda
high and prevail through Wednesday. Seas 3-4 ft Sunday lower to
2-3 ft Monday and Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday,
with SE swell persisting and S wind wave accounting for
fluctuations in wave heights throughout the period.
Thunderstorms forecasted for every day of the extended period as
several rounds of upper disturbances move across the area.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054-056.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/VAO


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