603
FXUS62 KILM 231340
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
940 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through tonight. A cold front
will approach the area Monday and move off the coast Monday
evening. This front could produce some showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms. The remainder of the week is expected to
remain dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Based on wind directions and dewpoints it appears the cold front
has made it south of the Santee River. A transitory area of high
pressure will move off the Virginia coast by noon, helping veer
our wind directions and lift the front back to the north this
afternoon. The airmass doesn`t change appreciably across the
boundary -- the biggest difference in airmass should end up
being cooler and more humid conditions along the coast this
afternoon with onshore flow off the ocean versus warm and drier
conditions inland where sunshine and deep mixing will mix out
any low level Atlantic moisture.

Changes with this morning`s update were focused on increasing
forecast high temperatures by a couple degrees inland based on
GFS LAMP and NBM guidance where upper 70s now appear likely
across the Pee Dee region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dry surface front was located near the I-95 corridor at 06Z,
and will move off the coast around 09Z. Westerly flow aloft will
usher surface high pressure off the east coast by early this
afternoon. Southerly return flow will set up later today,
leading to high temps a tad above climatology for the third week
of March. The gradient will gradually strengthen overnight as
another cold front crosses the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints
currently running in the mid 30s inland to lower 40s coast will
rise through the day, reaching the lower 40s inland to lower 50s
coast by this evening. As a result of increasing RH and lighter
winds, a Red Flag Warning will not be required today, and after
coordination with RAH, no plans for a Fire Danger Statement
either, given the relatively light winds expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will be windy with the pressure gradient increasing
ahead of another cold front and mixing of 30-35 kt winds. There
will be a chance of showers ahead of/along the front, especially
Monday afternoon into the early evening. QPF appears limited at
this time, and not much help to the current drought situation.
Instability is limited too, but can`t entirely rule out isolated
thunderstorms. Overall, highs/lows will be above normal given
the pattern in the short term, including Tuesday with cold air
advection lacking in the wake of frontal passage Monday night.
Weak low pressure may develop over NC Tuesday night, but the
column is expected to be mostly dry by that time so will not
include PoPs at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall pattern remains very progressive, but also mostly
dry. The weak area of low pressure will be off DELMARVA
Wednesday morning with high pressure building into the
Carolinas. The area of high pressure will prevail Thursday, and
quickly off the coast Friday with return flow to develop. A
ridge axis from the high far offshore will likely prevail Friday
and Saturday. Unfortunately, rain chances do not look too
promising through the long term period, and a continuation of
the drought conditions is likely. High/low temperatures will
mostly be above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period. A surface front
located near the coast early this morning will push offshore, and
relatively light winds will veer quickly from north to south through
the day, becoming SSW overnight as a cold front crosses into the
western Carolinas.

Extended Outlook...VFR should continue through Monday morning. Weak
to moderate confidence in flight restrictions returning later Monday
with the next cold front. After that front moves through late Monday
night, high confidence in VFR Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...A dry surface front will move off the coast
before dawn, with 10-15 kt northeast winds expected across the
waters during the morning hours. Winds will veer to ESE through
the afternoon and diminish to 10 kt as high pressure pushes off
the coast. SSW flow will increase back towards 15 kt overnight
as a cold front crosses the southern Appalachians.

Monday through Thursday...A SWly fetch will increase during
Monday ahead of the next cold front, potentially resulting in
another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. The front will
move across the waters Monday night with weaker offshore flow
to develop in its wake. A weak ridge will create much better
boating conditions Tuesday morning, however an area of low
pressure may develop over NC Tuesday afternoon/night and will
increase SWly flow along with an increase in offshore flow in
its wake by Wednesday morning. High pressure building in later
Wednesday into Thursday supports light winds. Seas will be
greatest Monday into Monday evening. Otherwise, expect 2 to 4
ft, until later Wednesday into Thursday when seas will subside
to 1-2 ft. A few showers/tstms possible over the waters Monday
and Monday evening associated with the cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...SRP/CRM