Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 062021
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week
ahead with plenty of sunshine each day. Unseasonably cool
temperatures to start will reach near normal by Tuesday and
continue to warm to above normal through the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Southern stream mid-level s/w trof will move off the SE U.S.
Coast this evening, pulling with it the mid and upper level
cloudiness. The sfc low associated with this upper s/w trof will
accelerate well offshore tonight. The sfc pg across the area will
tighten-some, keeping winds somewhat active overnight as cold air is
drawn southward across the region. Tonights lows will range from the
upper 20s to lower 30s. A northern stream mid-level s/w trof is
progged to swing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast during the first half of
daytime Sun. Few/Sct mid to upper level clouds may accompany its
passage during early Sun...otherwise NNW flow aloft, direct from
Canada, and a semi-tightened sfc pg Sun aftn and night, will all
combine to continue to draw cold air down from Canada. Sun highs
will run generally in the mid 50s with a few upper 50s given a good
dose of early March insolation. The center of the 1035+ mb high will
finally approach from the NW by Mon daybreak. Thus, just enough
mixing Sun night should prevail and thus prevent a free-fall dive
Mon morning lows. Of the 2 nights, Sun night should still prevail as
the colder 1 of the 2, even with no radiational cooling influences.
Overall, stayed with the cooler side of guidance, which incidentally
runs 10+ degrees below normal during this near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure from the sfc up through the upper levels
will slowly migrate across the Eastern CONUS Mon into midweek.
Diminishing northerly flow will weaken and become more variable
as the center of the high settles over the Carolinas into Tues.
This will allow air mass to modify with temps still running
below normal on Mon, but transitioning to normal by Tues. Mon
night will be the first night of temps above freezing all
across the area with the exception of isolated traditionally
cooler spots. Overall, the dry very air mass will allow for
plenty of sunshine and large diurnal swings in temps.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warming will begin in force through the latter part of the week
as sfc high shifts off the coast and ridge builds up through the
Southeast. A minor perturbation will ride across the area early
Wed that may produce a few clouds, before ridge builds in with
decent height rises. Should see some fog come into play as the
week wears on and dewpoints begin to rise. Warming trend through
the week will bring temps into the 70s and perhaps close to 80
by Fri, except at the beaches. The warming land relative to the
cooler ocean temps should kick up a decent sea breeze each aftn
into early eve, keeping places close to the coast cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. 10 kft ceilings currently across southern and coastal
areas, with broken cirrus clouds around 20 kft across entire
area. Gradual clearing will continue into the evening with clear
skies overnight. Winds remain light out of the north-northeast
through tomorrow.

Extended Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday night...Sfc low pressure developing within the
baroclinic zone over the Bahamas, will accelerate ENE, further
away from the US mainland, due to the southern stream s/w trof
moving off the SE U.S. Coast this evening. The hier winds and
seas will remain offshore, east thru south of the area waters.
Will experience a tightening of the sfc pg after the southern
stream s/w trof pushes off the SE U.S. Coast. Expect NE winds
around 10 kt to back to N at 10 to 20 kt overnight, which should
continue thruout much of daytime Sun. This sfc pg will remain
tightened thruout Sun due to the passage of the northern stream
s/w trof off the Mid-Atlantic States during Sun daytime morning.
The center of the sfc high behind the departing upper s/w trof
will approach the local waters from the Eastern Carolinas by Mon
daybreak. As a result, northerly winds will stay semi-active
Sun night. Seas thruout this fcst period will be governed by 3
to 5 second period wind waves, with heights peaking Sun aftn and
evening.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build down and
migrate nearly overhead on Tues, moving farther offshore through
midweek. Northerly winds on the front end up to 10 to 15 kts will
lighten and become more variable as center of high reaches
nearly overhead on Tues. Light onshore return flow will develop
Wed night into Thurs and will come around to a more southerly
direction by Fri. Overall, expect benign marine conditions as
winds lighten into mid week with seas below 2 ft Tues and Wed.
The persistent onshore flow that develops Wed night into Thurs
will produce a slow and steady rise in seas up to 3 to 4 by Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/RGZ



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