Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 161734
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
134 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be relatively cooler today behind a cold front
but will continue above normal through the weekend. A much stronger
cold front will sweep through the area Monday night bringing below
normal temperatures through Tuesday. Warmer weather will develop
late in the week with rain chances returning by Friday, as
moisture lifts up from the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.UPDATE...
A lot of moving parts this morning via a modest northeast push
across Cape Fear, high clouds from the southwest and
transitioning earlier fog into stratus. Although some areas are
reporting some broken to overcast skies there is some merit to
the strong mid March sun keeping conditions somewhat mixed out
as guidance suggests. For this reason will hold onto the current
high temperatures. Only minimal other changes with the update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of light showers is making its way through NE SC currently
with patchy fog filling elsewhere inland. These showers should come
to an end by the early morning as a cold front pushes in from the
north, stalling across the Cape Fear area. Dry air from the west in
the mid-levels should squash any precip chances but low clouds look
to hang around. With the cloud cover and frontal boundary, expecting
SE NC highs to be in the lower 70s with NE SC a bit warmer in the
upper 70s. Deeper SW flow looks to arrive tonight ahead of another
shortwave aloft, WAA moving in around midnight. While the low clouds
will scatter out, cirrus looks to take its place. Lows in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
To our north, a 500 mb low will pivot across SE Canada Sunday-Sunday
night, and to our south, weak shortwave energy will traverse the
Gulf coast states. Moisture associated with the southern stream
system will spread across the area Sunday evening and Sunday night
in progressive zonal flow, and model solutions still not in great
agreement on just how far north this moisture will make it.
Therefore am not inclined to make significant changes to forecast
PoPs during this period, and will maintain a range of 30% north to
70% south Sunday night, clearing out by 12Z Monday. Cold advection
gets underway Monday morning as a cold front moves off the coast,
introducing an airmass change that will bring temps back down to
near climatology. Highs Monday generally mid 60s along with a N-NW
breeze. Lows Monday night will drop into the mid 30s behind a
secondary cold front, which will be pushed along by a sharp 500 mb
trough crossing the Mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs topping
out in the mid to upper 50s most areas. 850 mb temps will begin to
moderate a bit, and lows Tuesday night should be 2-3 degrees higher
than Monday night. The column will remain quite dry through
Thursday, and a weak cold frontal passage Wednesday night won`t have
any associated PoPs. Rain chances will increase Friday, however, as
a 500 mb low shifts across the Mid-South, ushering in Gulf moisture
which will interact with a coastal trough moving onshore.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very weak pressure pattern resides across the forecast area
and somewhat plentiful moisture noting the convective field
rapidly developing this afternoon. There are some lingering MVFR
conditions in ILM in the wake of the anticipated NE boundary but
these are mixing out as we speak. Overall expect VFR conditions
to persist though the afternoon and early evening hours. I did
add IFR and MVFR late tonight along the coast as it seems sea
fog and or stratus is doable. Fog may become an issue inland
later as well noting the moisture/weak winds pressure pattern.

Extended Outlook...Sub- VFR conditions possible again Sunday
night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions today with seas 2-3 ft.
NW winds will become NE by the afternoon and SE by the evening,
speeds near 8-10 kts. Winds will turn to from the SW late
tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday: Light to moderate southwest winds are
expected Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak upper
level disturbance moving along the Gulf coast Sunday should cross
Georgia and South Carolina Sunday night, accompanied by an area of
showers and embedded thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should
remain south of Cape Fear, and will be well offshore before the cold
front arrives from the north Monday morning. This front will turn
winds offshore, then a second front will arrive with strong
northwest winds that will necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for 25+
knot winds. Winds should diminish during the day Tuesday as Canadian
high pressure builds southeastward. The high will settle over the NE
Gulf of Mexico, maintaining SW winds across the area waters
Wednesday, on the order of 10-15 kt.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CRM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/LEW/CRM


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