Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 130743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area this weekend and
will persist thru the mid-week period of next week. Look for
seasonable temps today, slightly milder Sun, followed by a
noticeable warming trend next week, with widespread 80s each
work-day except cooler at the beaches. An approaching cold
front late next week will bring our next chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery shows upper trough currently moving across
the Northeast. The trough will move offshore early today, with
decent NVA and downslope flow behind it for today. Combination
will keep skies clear and high temps in the low to mid 70s.
Strong subsidence and deep mixing will also lead to low RHs
(20-25%) this afternoon as dewpoints in the low 30s, possibly
upper 20s, are mixed down. While weakening, winds will remain a
bit gusty today, with highest gusts across southeast NC with 25+
mph gusts will be possible. Thus increased fire danger
conditions are expected today across southeast NC. At the
surface, high pressure will begin building in from the southwest
this afternoon, with its center moving south of the area
tonight. Calm and clear conditions in store for tonight with
lows in the upper 40s, with mid 40s in traditional cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This time frame will feature a true warming trend, with near 80
highs for Sun and well into the 80s for Mon (except cooler at
the immediate coastline).

Ridging aloft to dominate the short term while at the sfc,
center of high pressure will park itself well offshore from the
SE States Coast. Docile winds start the day Sun, but developing
Lee side trof will result in an increase to the pg with SW winds
becoming gusty Sun aftn/evening. Winds will stay active Sun
night with lows somewhat uniform in the 50s to around 60 across
the FA. Mon will feature a backdoor cold front dropping south,
with models now taking just across the VA-NC border late Mon.
Some compressional heating under downslope flow will boost highs
well into the 80s. Moisture limited to clouds but no pcpn
expected. Winds diminish-some Mon night with lows likely holding
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread 80s highs to remain a mainstay thru the upcoming
work-week.

Stalled sfc front just north of the FA at the start of this
period, will lift back to the north Tue-Wed as the upper ridge
axis becomes situated nearly overhead or just east of the FA.
The parked center of sfc high well offshore from the SE States
will continue its influence across the FA with SW winds becoming
active again as the sfc pg tightens-some especially late Tue
thru head of an approaching and eventually passage of a cold
front. Moisture does scour-some as it crosses the Appalachians
given the westerly flow aloft. But will have to watch the
embedded s/w trof accompanying it which could ignite shower
activity. Some slightly max temps for Fri when compared with the
previous 4 days but should eclipse 80 most locations away from
the beaches. Next cold front approaches the FA late Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR and clear skies, with a few afternoon cumulus possible
Saturday. Light west breeze through morning. West-northwest
winds prevail Saturday with gusts 20-25 kts forecasted for
much of the day (highest across southeast NC).

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Tonight...
Offshore winds will prevail across the local coastal waters
through tonight. Winds and seas are currently on a downward
trend as trough to the north begins to shift offshore and high
pressure builds in from the southwest during the day. Expect
conditions to improve below SCA criteria this morning, with
continued lowering of offshore wind speeds and seas through
the day and into tonight. Seas combination of a diminishing
SSW wind wave, offshore wind chop, and a 2 ft 8 sec SE swell.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...
Winds ands seas to remain below SCA thresholds this period. The
exception will be Sun aftn thru Sun night, where periodic gusts
up to 20-25 kt possible. In addition, an active sea breeze on
days when highs across the mainland reach well into the 80s, ie.
Mon and Tue, could result in an active/strong sea breeze
nearshore that borders temporary SCA wind thresholds.

Seas Sunday generally from the SE around 2 ft at 8 sec periods.
Short period wind chopped seas to dominate late Sun thru early
Tue. Underlying SE swell at 9 sec periods to reclaim temporary
dominance Wed before wind chop again picks up and dominates
thru Wed night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/VAO


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