Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Claudette will continue to push offshore today,
leaving a mostly clear, yet warm and muggy, afternoon. Cold
front will approach the area on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain
and the threat for strong storms during the afternoon. Cooler
on Wednesday as overcast skies and a cooler air mass keep
temperatures below- normal. Near-normal temperatures and
thunderstorm chances return late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tropical Storm Claudette remains the fixture early on within
this period. It`s immediate effects will linger into this
morning. She is progged to move off the Outer Banks and offshore
late this morning and thru the aftn. The last of her pcpn,
will exit stage right, early this morning. The hier winds
associated with Claudette are actually well displaced from her
center which is not the norm for a tropical system.
Nevertheless, post Claudette synoptically, the Lee side trof is
progged to strengthen today into tonight which will result in
continued breezy conditions with WSW-W directions early on
(Claudette influenced) backing to SW thruout. Subsidence in the
wake of Claudette is short-lived but occurs long enough to
result in widespread 90s for max temps across the FA. Even the
immediate coast may see 90 degree eclipsed prior to the sea
breeze circulation. The sea breeze will remain rather pinned to
the coast due the strong W-NW winds aloft. Do not expect
convection today after Claudette`s influence wanes. Winds will
stay active tonight, enough to influences tonights lows, keeping
them in the mid to upper 70s thruout. Forcing from the sfc front
and the approaching upper trof with ample moisture, will combine
to produce an increasing POP starting Tue morning and peaking in
atleast the likely category by midday Tue and thru the aftn.
Cloud cover and pcpn will keep max temps from surpassing 90
degrees on Tue. SVR tstorm parameters point toward a Marginal
risk for SVR, mainly for damaging wind gusts and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will slowly progress through the area on Tuesday
night. Surface lifting and deep-layer moisture should keep rain
chances high throughout the overnight hours into Wednesday
morning. Height falls may lead to steepening lapse rates and a
few rumbles of thunder before sunrise. High pressure attempts to
build behind the front on Wednesday, pushing the front offshore
and maintaining rain chances during the afternoon. Much cooler
air mass should build into the area with overcast skies helping
to keep temperatures around 80 degrees (well below-normal for
mid to late June). Afternoon convection and rain chances will be
best along the coast where the air mass maintains mid-level
saturation and sufficient instability. Lingering showers
continue Wednesday night as the front slowly inches offshore.
Overnight lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trough weakens on Thursday as temperatures begin a slow crawl
toward normal and the offshore boundary mostly dissipates. Have
maintained a chance of PoPs along the coast with the boundary
providing some additional energy on Thursday afternoon.
Returning to a fairly normal pattern next weekend with diurnal
coverage of thunderstorms. Potential for afternoon storms and
lingering early evening showers through Sunday as influence
becomes mostly due to Bermuda high. Warm and humid Thursday
through Sunday, highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical storm Claudette will move fairly rapidly east northeast
today. IFR ceilings will lift to MVFR shortly and scatter by
midday. Westerly winds will be gusty as the storm pulls away.
Increasing clouds toward the end of the forecast period as a
cold front approaches.

Extended Outlook...Convection with periodic MVFR/IFR, late Tue
Night will slide just off the Carolina Coasts come early Wed.
MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible Wed after the CFP but should
improve and clear out inland. Mainly VFR Thu thru Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
Tropical Cyclone Claudette will push off the Outer Banks and
offshore later this morning and afternoon. It`s influence will
wane this morning, however, winds and seas will remain elevated
as the Lee side trof strengthens this afternoon thru tonight,
resulting in a continued tightened sfc pg. A cold front will
push across the Appalachian mountains Tue aftn and slowly snake
toward the ILM CWA Coastline late in the day. It`s movement off
the ILM Coasts to occur early on within the mid-term period.
It`s slow approach will continue the tightened gradient across
the local waters thruout Tue. SCA conditions are likely
thruout this near term period.

Tuesday Night through Friday...
Cold front will slowly push through the area on Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Gradient over the coastal waters will weaken
quickly overnight as winds become SW 10-15 knots by Wednesday
morning. Surface cold front will push offshore on Wednesday
afternoon, but stall beyond 40 nm. SW winds will become NE by
late afternoon at around 10 knots. Building high pressure to the
north will bring a tightened gradient and NE winds to 10-15
knots Wednesday night into Thursday. Front slowly dissipates on
Thursday while still sitting just offshore and Bermuda high
pressure begins to regain control of the area. Easterly winds
develop late Thursday into early Friday before SE winds 10-15
knots develop during the day on Friday. Seas generally 2-3 feet
after Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/31


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