Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031729
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1229 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and mild weather will continue over the next several
days. An area of low pressure moving up the coast will bring
some rain chances on Monday. Another low passes well to our
north bringing a wet Tuesday night into Wednesday. One last
system will bring unsettled weather late Friday or Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Low-level moisture is quite abundant this morning, per CHS/MHX
12Z soundings. Extensive cloud cover should persist today,
although visibilities across the Pee Dee and into Robeson county
will continue an upward trend. Therefore will allow the Dense
Fog Advisory for inland areas to expire at 10 AM. A bit more
uncertainty exists across the coastal waters, where a Marine
Dense Fog Advisory is also set to expire at 10 AM. Our limited
views along the beaches indicate that visibilities have risen
above DFA thresholds, so current thinking is to allow this
advisory to also expire on schedule, and address any lingering
concerns with a Marine Weather Statement if necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunrise will reveal a lovely collection of radiation fog, sea fog,
low stratus, and dense cirrus across the area. As the early
boundary layer matures, fog will devolve into low clouds inland
and should encompass most of the area by midday.

Low pressure developing offshore will lead to strengthening onshore
flow and moisture advection throughout the boundary layer. Over
portions of SC, this deep layer could produce isolated showers this
afternoon. These would be light showers in shallow, convective-type
clouds. Not much in the way of rainfall is expected. The warm
air that treated the eastern half of the CWA yesterday should
be more widespread today despite the slight increase in NE
winds. Onshore flow may keep coastal areas a degree or two
cooler.

Moisture advection becomes widespread this evening and
overnight as the offshore low matures. Rain chances increase
after midnight, mainly for coastal SC and southeastern NC east
of I-95. The depth of moisture is slightly more pronounced as
low level flow wraps onshore around the center. The better
rainfall chances and higher rain rates will be confined to the
immediate coast. Mild again overnight with lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models trending a little bit wetter on Monday as a weakly closed mid
level low lifts north across the area.  As it does so it develops a
surface and low level reflection that should manage to advect enough
moisture ashore for some light rain, favoring the immediate coastal
counties (with a further favoring of NC over SC counties at that).
Dry air advects into the area behind this system with PW values
dropping from 1.3" to about 0.7" and Tuesday should allow for a
return of sunshine. The added insolation should lead to highs in the
mid 70s away from the water where cool SSTs in the mid 50s will
temper the warmth. The trying trend reverses Tuesday night, PW
values hitting 1.5" by 12Z Wednesday leading first to an increase in
cloud cover and then some light rain that should spread north across
the region as low pressure approaches from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm advection rains will still be around early Wednesday. Some
guidance hinting at a decrease in coverage and intensity as the day
wears on but for now will stick with the slower timing of prev
fcst/ECWMF that holds off drying trends until Wed night. Surface high
builds in from the north Thursday while mid level flow transitions
to a broad, low amplitude ridge. Late period timing of next system
is a bit uncertain as a few shortwaves will be acting together to
create an amplified trough to our west, the southernmost of which
could be driving low pressure and warm advection rain our way. Will
maintain POPs as early as Friday but Friday night into Saturday
looks like the better bet for meaningful rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Considerable low stratus will affect all terminals through most
of the TAF period, as weak low pressure off the SC coast lifts
north across the Cape Fear region overnight. Winds will remain
light as they back from ESE to NNE Monday morning, and should be
just enough to maintain MVFR visibilities. Ceilings on the other
hand may lower to IFR late tonight into Monday morning, with the
consensus of guidance indicating that KILM and KLBT will have
the best chance for IFR to develop.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions from low clouds/fog are likely
at times through at least Wednesday night. Showers and some
thunderstorms are also expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...NE flow should bring an end to dense sea fog
this morning, although dew point depressions indicate some
patchy sea fog may persist into the afternoon. As low pressure
develops offshore today, showers and storms will become more
numerous. Heavy rain at times may also limit visibility. NE flow
increases tonight as the low matures, but should remain around
15 knots. Seas generally around 3-4 feet after this morning.

Monday through Thursday...Low pressure moves north across the area
early Monday. This could lead to some light and variable winds early
on but a northerly component will come to dominate behind the system
by midday or afternoon. An ESE swell component will still be
dominant wave keeping seas elevated to 4-5 ft above the smaller wind
wave supported by wind speeds of 10-15kt. Gradient weakens Tuesday
for lighter winds but 1028 mb high well offshore still steering
swell energy into the Southeast. Low pressure moving NE well to our
NW turns winds more southerly Wednesday and a few 6 ft waves likely
to start affecting at least (northern) part of the area and SCA
seems possible though confidence is a bit low. Veering to NW and
then NE slated for Thursday. Wind wave component should decrease
enough for SCA to drop out and the long SE fetch will be interrupted
for a decrease in swell energy.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...ILM


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