Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 052257
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
657 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers or a thunderstorm is possible ahead of a cold
front that will cross the coast tonight, then stall offshore.
Expect cooler conditions, variably cloudy skies, and a slight
chance of showers Friday. High pressure will follow for the
weekend, bringing cool and quiet weather through Mother`s Day. A
front should drop into the area Monday and may linger into
Tuesday before dry high pressure builds in.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to cap PoPs at 20% tonight as coverage is
expected to be isolated moreso than scattered.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Extensive but shallow cumulus field being steered seaward by
westerly air flow. Shallow because of the depth of dry air aloft
of desert origin above 9000 feet. This the struggle convection
will continue to encounter, but with temperatures approaching
90 and surface convergence increasing in vicinity of the front,
held onto an isolated TSTM through afternoon and evening. The
convection should be comprised mostly of showers near the front.
The SPC has reduced the TSTM threat locally from marginal to a
general thunder status.


Between 15 and 20 degrees cooler most locations Thursday compared to
today as a cold front crosses the coast tonight. The front evident
in visible animations was moving across the highest mountain peaks
in NC this middle afternoon. The low-level cooling will decrease
convective energy significantly and not expecting precipitation.

Thursday night cradled vorticity in the basal portion of trough, and
a slight deepening of column moisture will bring rainshower chances
as lapse rates aloft reach maximum overnight into early Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough over the eastern CONUS will lift off to the
northeast on Friday with a deep west to northwest flow
developing. Any lingering shwrs and clouds will give way to
clearing through the day as dry and cool air advects in behind
exiting low. Temps will be below normal in the mid 70s most
places for highs.

Ridge will build eastward on Sat with continued deep W to NW
flow. Height rises and westerly downslope flow will lead to a
slight warming on Sat with temps in the mid 70s once again after
a cool start Sat morning, with lows below 50. Should see mainly some
mid level moisture and clouds stream over the area into Sat
night as warm front lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bermuda high will dominate the weather on Sunday with a warmer
more humid air mass as southerly return flow develops as warm
front lifts north. Temps will rebound into the mid 80s with
dewpoint temps rising a good 10 degrees through Sunday.

High pressure building down from the Upper Midwest will push a
front southward into Monday. This will bring increasing clouds
and an increased chc of rain on Mon into Tues. Cooler an drier
high pressure should build down by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/..
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Isolated shras/tstms this
evening, with dry conditions thereafter through the TAF period.
A cold front crosses the area tonight, with gusty SW flow ahead
of the front transitioning to NW behind the front.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR conditions from clouds and
possible pcpn Thu night into Fri due to a stalled front just
south of the area. A secondary CFP late Fri followed by dry high
pressure for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday night...
Advisory flags remain up from Cape Fear northward for gusty WSW-SW
winds to 25 kt, then an easing trend after midnight, as a cold front
slips off the coast. Seas are gradually subsiding currently and the
advisory is mainly driven by winds. N-NE wind early Thursday will
lighten during the day, then flip to southerly flow late, as a weak
high pressure cell migrates off land, while seas drop to 2 to 3 feet.
Residing southerly seas tonight through Thursday, every 6 seconds or
so, will co-mingle with a moderate to light NNE-NE chop. isolated
TSTMs and marine showers should be anticipated late tonight over
the 0-20nm waters.

Friday through Monday...
Low pressure pushes well offshore by Friday morning with
northerly winds advecting cooler and drier air as high pressure
builds into the area. Seas 2-3 feet. Offshore wind speeds will
increase slightly to 10-15 knots with the building high. High
pressure mostly overhead on Saturday with winds around or less
than 10 knots. Seas remaining around 2 feet. Warm front lifts
north of the area on Sunday as wind speeds increase to 15-20
knots with gusts to 25 knots and the potential for hazardous
conditions for Small Craft. Waves increase to 3-5 feet late
Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS/43
MARINE...MJC/RGZ


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