754
FXUS62 KILM 250143
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
943 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain,
will continue through the remainder of the week as southerly
winds bring tropical moisture northward. A cold front could
move through the area Saturday, bringing unseasonably
comfortable temperatures and humidity early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the latest update. Pretty quiet as far as
radar goes across SE NC and NE SC although seeing more
convection firing up offshore in the higher instability air and
think this will be the trend overnight for the most part,
although can`t rule out some showers and maybe a few storms
inland as well as moisture, low- level jetting and mid-level
shortwave energy increase across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Swath of convection was organizing from Bladen county south through
Williamsburg county early this afternoon, and will transition
generally northward through late afternoon. Will maintain likely
PoPs through the overnight period, highest inland this evening, then
increasing eastward after midnight. A Flood Watch remains in effect
for Florence, Darlington, Marlboro, Dillon and Robeson counties
through Thursday evening, although localized flooding may occur in
any location impacted by one or more of these heavy downpours.

The Great Lakes trough does swing towards the east Thursday, which
will push the western Atlantic ridge a bit to the east, but overall,
the forecast will remain largely unchanged, as scattered showers and
tstms should blossom across the area once again. Will maintain
likely to categorical PoPs through Thursday afternoon, highest
chances inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall the main components of the forecast remain in
place. A very moist southwest flow in place Thursday Night into
Friday followed by a westerly flow with more of a northerly flow
developing late in the period or early in the extended. Pops and qpf
amounts remain challenging but it appears the highest chances occur
overnight Thursday and again later Friday when a back door front
meanders into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still good agreement on the cool down for the extended
period with lows dipping into the upper 60s both Sunday and Monday
mornings with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Some decent
agreement on dry conditions these days as well. Beyond this a return
to climatology both from a temperature and rainfall/chances
standpoint.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at the SE NC and NE SC terminals,
especially near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR, as the pattern
remains about the same as the last few days. The best rain/low
cloud chances should be inland at KLBT/KFLO the first part of
tonight and then closer to the coast later tonight into Thursday
morning, before shifting back inland later Thursday.

Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... Bermuda high will shift a bit to the east
by Thursday, but only tangible change should be a little more of
a southwest wind trajectory. Seas will remain 3-4 ft, composed
of a SE swell and SSW wind wave. Isolated showers/tstms this
evening may become more numerous late tonight into Thursday
morning.

Thursday Night through Monday...
Winds and seas should remain well below any headline
criteria through the period. A southwest flow will be in place
through late Friday into early Saturday when a back door front slips
south and a northeast flow develops. Winds should be northeast from
this point forward. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet if not more
like 2-3 feet in time.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ087.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for SCZ017-023-024-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SHK/CRM