Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 032327
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
727 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Isaias will affect the region tonight and will
continue into early Tuesday before the storm moves north of the
area. Typical warm and humid weather will return with a chance
of afternoon thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main story for the next 24 hours is the onset of Isaias, which will
bring wind, rain, some tornadoes, storm surge, and flooding.
Anticipated rainfall has increased into the 2 to 6 inch range, while
some areas could see increased amounts above 6 inches in locally
heavier rainfall bands. Some tornadoes are possible, especially
tonight into Tuesday morning with the approaching storm. Tropical
storm force winds are possible starting this evening through Tuesday
morning. High wind speed potential exists with locations seeing
between 55 mph and 70 mph east of I-95 with gusts as high as 80 mph
at times along the coast. For coastal locations, beach erosion and
storm surge flooding is also possible with water reaching between 3
and 5 feet south of Cape Fear above ground level, and 2 to 4 feet
north of Cape Fear. The storm will also bring high chances for
dangerous rip currents through Tuesday for area beaches. The storm
exits the region by Tuesday late morning, and conditions area wide
should begin to improve with lessening winds, light rainfall, and
improving conditions along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High amplitude mid to upper trough, extending from the Great
Lakes down into the Gulf will lift north as it slowly progresses
eastward and gets squeezed out by 2 ridges to our south. Deep
southerly flow will continue to keep a typical hot and humid
summertime air mass in place. Looks like best shortwave energy
will remain offshore, but weak perturbations will rotate around
the trough over the central and eastern CONUS. Overall, expect
the diurnal convection with focus along sea breeze boundary and
trough inland, but should see some enhancement with convection
at times due to shortwave energy.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridge over the Atlantic builds westward as mid to upper
trough lifts slowly north and flattens out into the weekend.
Overall expect typical diurnal convection each aftn with a weak
southerly flow at the sfc and a more westerly flow aloft. Looks
like potential for more widespread convection may come into the
latter half of the weekend or early next week as a weak front
drops south in NC, the Piedmont trough strengthens and better
shortwave energy drops far enough south into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are quickly transitioning into MVFR as Isaias
nears. Widespread rain for the next several hours, with the
center of Isaias approaching the SC/NC border. MVFR restrictions
will probably go down into IFR at times, especially along the
coast. Sustained winds and gusts quickly ramp up this evening,
with varying directions. Inland terminals start to see the winds
slow down around 06-07Z, with a drying trend. Coastal terminals
see a similar trend by 10-12Z. VFR returns by the mid-morning
hours, and gusts calm. This trend continues through the end of
the 00Z TAF period.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Isaias will bring seas 10 to 15 feet tonight between 8 and 10
seconds out to 20 NM and upwards of 20 feet beyond 20 NM Monday
night into Tuesday, with marine conditions gradually improving
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Note that waterspout potential will
also increase Monday as Isaias nears.

Conditions over the coastal waters will continue to improve
through mid week with seas 2 to 4 ft mid to late week. No
significant swell likely.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ024-032-033-039-059.
     Hurricane Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
     Storm Surge Warning for SCZ054-056.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099.
     Hurricane Warning for NCZ105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ110.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MCK/RGZ


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