833
FXUS62 KILM 071748
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat drier conditions continue through Tuesday until more
unsettled weather comes into play Wednesday through Friday. Rain
chances decrease slightly by the weekend, but daily shower and
thunderstorm trends will still be the theme.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summertime pattern back in full force this afternoon
with high pressure in place basically at all levels. There could
still be some meandering convection this afternoon with the latest
satellite showing the coast and points well inland with the best
chances. After a quiet night similar conditions are expected Tuesday
with slightly more convection and warming temperatures/dewpoints. It
seems reasonable to expect a heat advisory as well mainly inland but
will hold off issuing the headline today via inter office
collaboration.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid-level trough in the Ohio River Valley gradually drops
southeastward towards the mid-Atlantic region. Subsidence inversion
decreases as the weak ridge exits stage right. This sets the scene
for more convective activity Wednesday afternoon. There is some
subtle forcing aloft that tries to push ahead of the aforementioned
trough, but outside of that, there isn`t much synoptic forcing in
play. Seabreeze and Piedmont trough will be the focus for shower and
storm ignition in the afternoon. In particular, the Piedmont trough
looks slightly stronger than the previous day, and SBCAPE lingers in
the 2500-3000 J/kg range. Throw in precipitable water values of 2.00-
2.10", and now severe weather may come into play, with a "Marginal
risk" (threat level 1/5) in place along the I-95 corridor Wednesday
afternoon. Storms will gradually decrease after sunset. Highs in the
lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices won`t have a
problem reaching the triple digits again, but generally remain shy
of Heat Advisory criteria (105F for 2+ hours).

Lows each night in the low-to-mid 70s inland, upper 70s at the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Similar stories in place Thursday and Friday. Mid-level trough
lingers, if not dropping further southward into the Piedmont region.
This only supplies some extra help for storms in the afternoon
Thursday and Friday. Given the plentiful instability in the
atmosphere, storms are likely to have lots of lightning in them.
Temperatures remain about in the same place.

Weak trough pattern finally lifts northeastward and offshore by
Saturday morning, where weak ridging returns. No changes in the
temperature trends. Shower and thunderstorm chances come down
slightly, due to a little more subsidence in place. However, with
stout instability and moisture still in place, scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon are still expected all weekend long.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Most likely VFR conditions through the 18Z period with high
pressure in control. Thermal profiles are just too warm for any
significant fog and or stratus development. Some wind remains in the
boundary layer as well.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible
Tuesday and Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential
early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Very typical marine conditions expected over
the next day or so. South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots with
significant seas of 2-4 feet.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Winds are locked in out of the
southwest at 10-15 kts, with occasional gusts up to 18-19 kts. Seas
fluctuate a bit between 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft. Semi-permanent
southeasterly swell at 8-9 seconds persists, in between wind chop.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: Latest data from offshore buoys shows the
southeast swell continue and still has enough swell energy
(4-5ft every 7-8 seconds) to create strong rip currents on the
south facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC and the northern
half of Horry County, SC. North of Cape Fear a 14-15 second
easterly swell, even if it is only 1-2 ft, will be capable of
producing strong rip currents especially after low tide this
afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM