Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 221053
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather returns today but the humidity will stay low enough
to preclude a heat advisory. After today the heat will be
tempered but remain above normal as a series of boundaries move
through the area, a few of which will bring some minor chances
for rain. The late week period will bring a trend towards little
to no rain chances as temperatures stay warm for June. A cold
front will approach on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast area will be on the periphery of expansive 5h ridge over
the southern CONUS today and tonight. At the same time a 5h cutoff
sitting off the New England coast this morning will drift southwest.
Weak surface high over the Southeast today with Piedmont trough
gaining some strength in the afternoon, increasing southerly flow.
Air mass remains very dry with a bit of mid-level capping still
evident in forecast soundings. The environment remains unfavorable
for any deep convection through 00Z and will lead to a round of
unseasonably warm temperatures across the area. Partial thickness
schemes and 850 temps suggest upper 90s to triple digits for inland
counties. Along the coast 10-12 kt winds at 925 mb help slow the
inland progression of the sea breeze, with mid to upper 90s possible
outside of areas right at the coast. The main limiting factor will
be how much cloud cover moves in from the north through mid-
afternoon. Think guidance may be overdoing the cloud cover a bit and
went a bit warmer with today`s forecast highs which will be well
above climo.

Forecast becomes a little more interesting this evening and
overnight. The northerly flow aloft between the 5h ridge to the west
and the 5h low to the east pushes a weak shortwave into the area
tonight. Guidance is showing the feature generating convection over
VA this afternoon which then moves south into NC in the evening. The
remains of this activity move into portions of the forecast area
late tonight into Thu morning. Coverage will be limited as the late
arrival time equates to waning instability, but think slight chc pop
is warranted across NC counties. Lows run above climo tonight
despite northerly winds developing during the predawn hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
There will be several synoptic scale boundaries in the area on
Thursday, though thickness plots and low level thermal fields argue
that the are not true fronts. Even so the heat will be tempered when
compared to Wednesday with some slightly elevated cloud cover. Large
scale lift looks rather lackluster as all of the shortwaves in the
NW mid level flow are small and weak. Mesoscale forcing appears
possible just across the entire area with all of the sfc convergent
boundaries and have continued to carry 40-ish POPs area-wide through
the hours of daytime heating, a few storms possibly lasting a bit
longer than normal past sunset. The poorly defined front does kind
of congeal to our south at some point Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat rare June NE winds on Friday with main boundary now to our
south. Guidance is pretty reserved in showing dewpoints fall much as
they did with our last cool front but rain chances to appear to
decrease to near negligible values. The weekend will bring a
continuation of NW to N mid level flow around the ridge that stays to
our west in addition to an increasingly weak pressure pattern,
neither of which are favorable for meaningful rain chances as there
is no opportunity for moisture recovery. By Monday the last vestige
of the wedge to our N/NE appear to wash out and a southerly
component should materialize into the still very weak boundary layer
flow. A weakening of a shortwave ridge overhead appears to support
low end chance POP coverage. Tuesday may represent the best chance
for rainfall of the whole seven day forecast as a surface cold front
approaches, it`s low level lift deepened by mid level height falls
and weak PVA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog in the process of dissipating this morning
and will be mixed out by 12Z. VFR will continue into this
evening before potential MVFR ceilings develop after midnight.
Confidence in coverage and timing is low. It is possible the
storms weaken and dissipate before reaching the area. Southwest
flow continues today and tonight with a strengthened Piedmont
trough leading to an increase in wind speeds for the afternoon
and evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR from clouds
and/or showers Thu night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Strengthened Piedmont trough this afternoon and evening will
result in an increase in southwest winds across the waters. The
trough moves to the coast this evening by system moving in from
the north- northwest, increasing winds to a solid 20 kt
overnight with potential for 25 kt sustained. Although it is a
marginal will go for a SCA for all zones from 00Z to 08Z. Winds
quickly veer to northerly around sunrise as the aforementioned
trough moves across and then south of the waters. Gradient
relaxes behind the trough with winds dropping to 10 kt or less.
Seas around 2 ft this morning build to 3 to 5 ft by late
afternoon/evening. Development of offshore flow and then
decreasing wind speeds results in seas dropping to 2 to 4 ft by
the end of tonight. A south to southwest wind wave will be
dominant into Thu.

Thursday through Sunday... This is normally the time of year when
thanks to the Bermuda high almost every period as a S to SW wind,
and this forecast period features anything but.  Thursday for
example starts with N to NE winds as not only a series of boundaries
will be found over land but a well defined low forms well east of
VA. Synoptic front acts to congeal all boundaries to our south
keeping winds E to NE while perhaps adding a few knots of wind
speed. Flow remains onshore but weekend over the weekend as the
boundary washes out and no significant airmass appears poised to
advect into the area. Seas start off at 3-4 ft with the boundaries
and high to the N dictating the strength of the gradient. Soon
thereafter the 4 footers should drop out but the direct onshore flow
will preclude any other abating of wave heights.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM


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