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000
FXUS62 KILM 151623
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1124 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry today, with plenty sunshine. A weak disturbance
aloft will energize a coastal trough just off the Carolina
coasts, to produce light showers Sunday afternoon into Monday.
Warming temperatures and increasing humidity are expected late
Monday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which will arrive
late Wednesday. Colder temperatures are expected late next week
as Canadian high pressure builds in behind the departing front.

&&

.UPDATE/...
No appreciable changes needed with early morning updates, as a
bright day unfolds amid below normal maximum temperatures and
copious sunshine minutes. Dewpoints to ascend very slowly the
next 24 hours, while 10-m winds exhibit decreasing trends. The
min-RH to bottom out around 40 percent at 4 pm. Seasonably cool
tonight, although a very weak onshore flow may prevent temps
from dropping below freezing across most of the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level s/w ridge will progress overhead today pushing off
the Carolina Coasts and offshore tonight thru Sun. Sfc ridging
will extend SW across the FA from a 1035+ mb high centered over
the NE States. This High`s center progged to move off the New
England Coast and offshore tonight thru Sun, with weakening
ridging extending across the FA. After a brief NE surge this
morning, winds will slacken off by this aftn. An inverted sfc
trof will develop off the SC-GA-FL coasts tonight and persist
just off the coast thru Sun. Cloudiness and showers will develop
and expand across the FA during Sun as this trof becomes
entangled with a passing weak embedded vort within zonal flow
aloft. The inverted sfc trof is not expected to move onshore
given the zonal flow aloft and there-for temps will remain on
the cool side, atleast a cat below normal, thruout this period.
QPF Sun will run less than one tenth of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A coastal trough will be on the move to the east at
the beginning of the period with some residual pops Sunday
evening. High pressure will build in from the northeast Monday
but temperatures will still be on the upswing as this feature
is relatively weak. Expect highs in the lower to middle 60s
after morning lows in lower to middle 40s. Some pops are in the
forecast early Tuesday with the next system approaching from
the west but fine tuning in subsequent forecasts may trend
these down.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad west to southwest flow will be in place for the
first couple of days of the extended period. This flow will
bring a broad and disjointed system across late Tuesday into
early Wednesday followed by arctic high pressure. The
disorganized nature of this system warrants only good chance
to likely pops at this juncture.

The aforementioned arctic air will battle an active southern
stream as moisture generated by mainly jet dynamics streams
across late Wednesday well into the day Thursday. The global
guidance has been off and on with some frozen precipitation
across the area with the latest suite showing the precipitation
mostly to the south of the county warning area. Obviously this
system will need to be closely monitored but any wintry
precipitation other than the heavy variety will be battling a
late February sun angle and surface temperatures well into the
60s and 70s the previous two days. Beyond this guidance had
trended toward a more progressive pattern which yields cold
and dry conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through the forecast
period. Time height shows very dry air aloft, with little to no
clouds expected through the overnight hours. Northeast winds will be
moderate today, becoming light this evening as an inversion sets up.
Sunday, increasing clouds ahead of the next system. Light and
variable winds.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather Sunday night through Thursday
with possible MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today thru Sun:
Decent CAA surge will continue thru midday today as a result of
the passage of a secondary cold front or trof earlier this
morning. Combined with a tightened sfc pg spells continued SCA
conditions thru early to mid afternoon under the NE wind regime.
An elongated center of high pressure will extend across the
Carolinas from the NE states tonight. At the same time, models
indicate an inverted sfc trof to develop off the SE U.S. Coast.
Flow and dynamics aloft will not allow the sfc trof to push
onshore and as a result, winds will remain NE to ENE. Models
have been increasing the moisture in the vicinity of this trof
resulting in reduced vsby from showers or light rain especially
on the west side of this trof. Seas will run 3 to 6 ft at 5
second dominating periods this morning. As winds diminish this
aftn, the wind driven wave input will subside, however an
underlying SE swell at 10+ second periods will keep seas only
dropping to 2 to 4 ft tonight thru Sun.

Sun Night thru Wed:
Relatively light wind fields will be in place the first day or
so with directions from the northeast transitioning to a return
south to southwest flow. This flow will pick up intensity a bit
to 10-15 knots ahead of a cold front that should move across
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The heavy artillery for the
marine community arrives late Wednesday through basically the
remainder of the period via arctic high pressure. Strong
northeast winds develop and seas increase both almost a given
to reach small craft criteria.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH/8
UPDATE...Colby
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/SHK