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000
FXUS62 KILM 040010
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
710 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold front tonight.
A second front will bring colder weather in for Wednesday and
Thursday. Dry weather may persist through the end of the work week
as high pressure builds along the east coast. Rain chances look
to return by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move through the area this evening, ushering
in cooler and drier air for the remainder of the near term. Lows
tonight will fall to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs Monday
will reach the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet forecast this period. Weak surface front, if it hasn`t
already pushed through the area, will continue to do so Monday
evening. Plenty of dry air continues to work its way through the
column, which eliminates any chances for rain. A couple of
really good trough patterns swing through aloft, with one Monday
night, and the other Tuesday night. This helps usher in much
cooler air. Monday night lows dip into the lower 40s, with
Tuesday night getting into the upper 30s. Mostly sunny Tuesday,
with highs in the lower 60s, which is right around normal for
early December.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday night`s trough continues to swing through the area
today, coupled with some deep northwesterly flow. Once it pushes
offshore, the upper flow is replaced by ridging Thursday,
becoming more zonal by Friday. Dry forecast continues, with
another reinforcing cold front bringing temperatures down even
more. Highs in the mid-to- upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday,
with lows edging near or just above freezing. The ridging Friday
allows temperatures to recover a bit, with highs in the lower
60s, and lows that night in the lower 40s.

Another frontal system looks to affect the area by the weekend,
this time finally accompanied by rain chances. Model guidance
is sketchy on the exact timing of the front, but trends for a
wet weekend are increasing. Increased temperature and moisture
advection ahead of the front brings highs in the mid-to-upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the TAF period with mid-high clouds
streaming overhead through most of the period. Not expecting
impactful fog development overnight as dewpoints fall through
the night, even with winds lightening up.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to dominate the
extended period. Another cold front is forecast to slide through
early Wednesday and low confidence exists for MVFR ceilings
during the day. Otherwise, primarily VFR is expected to
continue for Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...SW winds 10 to 15 KT will become W tonight, then
NW Monday as they diminish to 10 KT or less. Seas of 3 to 5 FT
tonight will diminish to 2 to 4 FT Monday.

Monday Night through Friday...Pressure gradient briefly loosens
Monday night into Tuesday, with westerly winds at 10-15kts
decreasing to 10kts, veering to the north and northwest. Seas
decrease from 2-3ft to 1-2ft. Tuesday night, pressure quickly
tightens up again, with a cold front pushing through the area.
Northwesterly winds pick up to sustained 20kts, gusts over
25kts, which may prompt a Small Craft Advisory Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. This brings the offshore wind waves up to
2-4ft. Winds stay out of the northwest Wednesday night, but the
gradient slowly loosens from there. Winds gradually back to the
southwest Thursday, and seas decrease to 1-3ft. Westerly winds
Friday at around 10kts.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...IGB/31