Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 220634
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
234 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight into Tuesday.
The threat of strong storms will increase ahead of the front
Tuesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather on Wednesday.
Near-normal temperatures and thunderstorm chances return late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
The area of subsidence in the wake of Claudette per water vapor
imagery is quickly lifting away toward the northeast. A deeper
plume of moisture is shifting east as the H5 trough axis begins
to shift east of the MS Valley. As a result, have included a
small POP for southern and western areas this evening.
Additionally, the new SRF includes a high risk of rip currents
from northern Horry County to Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender
Counties for tomorrow (moderate rip risk for southern Horry and
Georgetown Counties). No other significant changes were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increased subsidence and dry air on the back end of Claudette
with W-NW downslope winds will transition back to an
increasingly moist pre-frontal environment into Tues. Pcp water
values down closer to 1.5 inches this afternoon will surge back
above 2 inches as winds back with a deep SW moist return flow
tonight into Tues. Deepening mid to upper trough will push the
front through the Carolinas just in time for max heating. Do not
expect temps quite as warm as today due to increasing cloud
cover but dewpoint temps will remain up around 70 with
increasing SW winds. Expect increasing coverage of thunderstorms
through the aftn with a marginal risk, level 1 of 5, of severe
storms. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Expect
breezy conditions with increasing clouds and high temps reaching
into the 80s.

Storms will diminish through Tues evening with cold front
moving offshore after midnight. The mid to upper trough remains
over the Southeast, but should nudge the front far enough off
the coast with some drier mid level air slowly working its way
down through into early Wed. Looking at soundings and moisture
profiles, column remains saturated up through 10k ft into early
Wed and therefore expect some lingering pcp and clouds to hold
on. Temps will drop below 70 by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Despite being early summer Wednesday brings a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the north. Most places will struggle to or fail to
hit 80 for a high temperature (far northwestern zones may have a
shot as some partial clearing is expected). Offshore on the frontal
boundary a flat wave of low pressure will develop. As this occurs it
will tend to fling moisture back onshore, though models differ
considerably regarding its success. The GFS on one hand is rain-free
here whereas the WRF peppers the coast pretty good but is dry
inland. Anything west of I-95 really seems overly ambitious so POPs
trimmed to slight chance there.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday will bear a lot of similarities to Wednesday as the wedge
is still in place albeit in a weakening state. This will mean that
the clouds and rain chances will spread a bit further to the
northwest, though both will still be graded from NW to SE. As the
wedge continues to break down on Friday the front will return as a
warm front and rain looks like a good bet area-wide. The remainder
of the period looks much more like a typical summertime pattern with
light flow aloft and offshore high pressure the dominant features.
Thunderstorm coverage may be slightly elevated however as there will
still be a few lingering shortwaves traversing the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thru the pre-dawn hrs, mainly looking at VFR at all terminals.
Approaching cold front and associated convection well ahead,
will overspread the area terminals from SW to NE mainly after
daybreak. Initially showers but as day wears on, upper support
as well as the days insolation will aid the thunderstorm
activity. Have identified possible TEMPO groups which times
the worse of the convection to move across each of the
terminals. Improvements in pcpn coverage will occur across the
inland terminals late in this period as the cold front reaches
them. At the coastal terminals, kept the threat thruout the
evening. SW winds will remain gusty, ie. 20+ kt, across all
terminals, except for the inland terminals, LBT and FLO, where
the cold front will be on top of them at the end of the fcst
period.

Extended Outlook...Convection with periodic MVFR/IFR, Tue
night, will slide just off the Carolina Coasts come early Wed.
Post cold frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible late Tue night
into Wed but should improve and clear out, especially at
KFLO/KLBT. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Thu through Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday night...
A cold front will approach the Carolinas from the west tonight
and Tuesday. Winds and seas will diminish a bit through early
this evening with more of an offshore component to the flow, but
will ramp back up in tightened gradient flow ahead of the cold
front through Tuesday. Overall, expect Small Craft Advisory
conditions to continue with SW winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts. Cold front will slowly push through the area on
Tuesday night into early Wednesday with SW winds diminishing to
under 15 knots by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday...N to NE winds, not exactly common
in the summer, will be in place on Wednesday as high pressure
wedges in from the north behind Tuesday`s cold front. Seas will
be agitated by the wind shift but tend to remain below advisory
thresholds. The unusual winds remain on Thursday but they will
weaken as the high pressure wedge does the same. More common
southerly winds kick by Friday as the wedge erodes and the
offshore front returns north as a warm front. Seas will settle
somewhat through the whole transition. A very long period SE
swell is expected to coexist with the wind waves but it is only
forecast to be about 1 ft in height.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/RGZ


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