Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
254 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered today but overall
offer little drought releif. Even moreso over the weekend as
some dry air moves in. Rain chances return for the middle of
next week. Overall temperatures will be close to normal for much
of the forecast period after a slightly hot day today.



Mid-level ridge over TX continues drifting west today, weakening its
influence over the region. Meanwhile, deep north to northwest flow
will move another shortwave into the region later this afternoon.
The decreasing subsidence and increasing low level moisture will
lead to an environment more supportive of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Dewpoints will jump 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday,
with the largest increase across inland areas. Temperatures will
moderate somewhat with northerly low level flow in place. Inland
areas, especially SC, will still end up well above climo. The
shortwave will help push a cold front into the region later today.
Convergence along the front is weak, owing to the in situ northerly
surface flow, but the boundary is still likely to add some
enhancement. Sea breeze will also be in play with flow nearshore
becoming more easterly around midday. Think most areas will end up
seeing at least some rain today however, coverage at any one time
will probably not be much more than 40-50%. Convection will move
from north to south across the area from mid-afternoon through early
evening. At present SPC maintain general thunder for the area and
forecast soundings/profiles do not really suggest much of a severe
weather threat. Minimal shear and helicity with SBCAPE approaching
2k J/kg and DCAPE around 800 J/kg. May see a few gusts 30 to 40 mph
with stronger storms given the DCAPE/inverted V profile.

Shortwave moving south of the area tonight drags the surface cold
front south with it. Weak high pressure builds in from the north
behind the front, accompanied by weak cold advection. Lows near
climo, propped up a bit by lingering cloud cover and boundary layer
winds around 10 kt. Loss of heating and subsidence behind the
exiting shortwave should keep the region dry after 03Z or so.


Friday offers up a post-frontal area of high pressure centered to
our north while mid level flow is out of the NW downstream from a
mid level anticyclone over the Gulf States into Texas. This setup
will yield nearly full sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and fairly
comfortable humidity by June standards.


The weekend will bring a continuation of Friday`s rather pleasant
weather. The high to our north will progress eastward while mid
level flow veers a bit from NW to N or NNE as the mid level ridge
expands towards the East Coast. Meanwhile surface winds will veer
from NE to E or ESE. Surface moisture may attempt to increase early
each day but the dry mid level air will readily mix down to keep the
airmass feeling more like Spring than Summer from an RH perspective
even as afternoons heat up close to their seasonable norms.
Unfortunately these lower RH values paired with the lack of rain
will act to worsen our D1 drought status. Some very minor releif may
be on the way Monday night into Tuesday as a surface cold front
drops in from the NW. The releif will only be minor as rainfall
amounts will likely be meager due to the lack of deep layer
moistening since the upper trough and its assoc SW flow will be so
far removed to our north, passing through the OH Valley. This
boundary likely stalls nearby on Wednesday but once again with the
lack of deep moisture it`s hard to imagine it will lead to
meaningful drought relief.


All terminal VFR through midday before afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms develop. Hard to time when any
terminal will be affected, but high probability of brief
MVFR/IFR at all terminals at some point between 18Z and 00Z.
Potential for MVFR/IFR to linger at SC terminal through 03Z
before storms weaken and move farther south. North to northeast
winds expected through 06Z Fri with speeds around 10kt.
Potential for gusts 20-30 kt with strongest convection in the
afternoon and evening, but enhanced winds would be isolated.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely.



Through Tonight:

Went ahead and dropped the SCA an hour early. Buoys showing winds
well under 25 kt at this point. Northerly flow continues today with
reinforcing shot of northerly winds overnight as cold front pushes
south. Not much of a gradient or a northerly surge with speeds
staying under 15 kt. Expecting some afternoon and evening storms
moving south across the waters ahead of the front and the associated
shortwave. Seas 2 to 3 ft today and tonight made up of a southwest
wind wave and an easterly swell.

Friday through Monday...The period initializes with NE winds as high
pressure is centered well to our north. As this high advects
eastward the flow south turn more directly onshore/easterly but also
weaken. The tendency for the onshore wind to bring bigger waves
within 20nm will be offset by the decrease in speed for little
overall change in the seas forecast though the dominant period does
appear to increase slightly as a light yet long fetch develops. A
veer to SE and then S is slated for Monday as the high progresses




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