Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
770 FXUS62 KILM 090105 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 905 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Unsettled weather arrives Wednesday with best storm chances Thursday and Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture. && .UPDATE... Lowered POPs for the remainder of the evening and overnight. Still a possibility with late Atlantic Ocean nocturnal shra/tsra skirting portions of the immediate coast toward and around daybreak Wed. Low level S-SSW jet should keep winds frisky along the coast and likely just enough to keep widespread fog at bay inland. Sheltered locations inland, especially areas receiving rainfall, may observe patchy fog. Low temps for the night may have already occurred across locations having received rainfall, those areas may actually see a rise in temps this evening before they back paddle to the prescribed overnight lows. Will need to re-evaluate the possibility of the need for a Heat Adv across the inland counties during the next update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The region will remain near or under the influence of a mid-level ridge axis extending westward out of the Atlantic Ocean through the period with light winds <20 kts through most of the troposphere up until jet stream level (>30 kft). Typical summertime moisture levels, with precipitable water values around to slightly above 2", will remain in place with steady south-southwest winds around Bermuda high pressure in the lower atmosphere. For the remainder of today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze in South Carolina and inland from coast around/west of the I-95 corridor. Subsidence near the coast courtesy of the ridge should largely suppress activity in the coastal Cape Fear region, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Any daytime convection should dissipate this evening with this loss of heating, leaving another warm and muggy night with lows in the mid-upper 70s and partly cloudy skies. On Wednesday, a mid-level trough tracking across the Ohio Valley will begin to lower heights over the Carolinas. With the ridge axis holding in place, though, model soundings show that at least a weak subsidence inversion will be maintained, especially with eastward extent. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely to occur near/west of I-95, although guidance suggests these storms should largely develop over the Piedmont before drifting eastward. Weak flow through the atmosphere will mean slow-moving storms producing heavy rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding where multiple storms pass over the same area or become stationary as rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely in the stronger storms. In addition, an isolated severe storm may occur and produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but this potential is very low. High temps should end up a little lower tomorrow than today due to greater cloud cover developing during the afternoon, and these lower temps should preclude most areas from reaching Heat Advisory criteria of 105F, despite dew points in the mid-upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled conditions will persist and or increase as the usual factors...subtle mid level troughing...the Piedmont/Inland Trough along with the sea breeze combine in tandem with significant pw values in place. These factors warrant likely to even categorical pops at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours trailing off overnight. Temperatures will be steady state with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the middle to perhaps even upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended period has trended a little drier from a convective coverage standpoint as mid level ridging appears to build in more at times. Saturday should see the least convection with a subtle increase in pops once again late in the weekend into early next week. With higher dewpoints essentially locked in across the area heat related headlines...probably more confined to advisory criteria appear to be fair game each day. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Last of the convection done for the evening. Will deal with some mid and upper level debris cloudiness remainder of the evening and overnight given the weak steering flow and moist column with PWs remaining 2+ inches, approaching 2.25 inches during daylight Wed. Both LBT and FLO terminal areas received some rain and could be enough for patchy MVFR fog overnight. Will include VCSH for ILM for late pre-dawn hrs to around Wed daybreak to account for onshore movement of pcpn. In addition, the coastal terminals may observe intermittent SCT possibly BKN stratus fractus in the 1000-2000 foot range overnight thru daybreak. Another round of convection slated for Wed with Prob30 groups identifying the best times for each terminal. Overnight LLJ S-SSW direction to keep winds 5 to 9 kt at the coastal terminals, around 4 kt inland terminals. Both LBT and FLO terminal areas received some rain and could be enough for patchy MVFR fog overnight. Active sea breeze should brings winds S winds 10-15 kt with periodic gusts reaching 20 kt not out of the question. Inland terminals, will see S-SSW winds climb to around 10 kt as the day progresses. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to afternoon/evening convection and the potential for early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Steady south winds will prevail around broad Bermuda high pressure over the central Atlantic. Waves of 2-3 ft will stem from a combination of 2-3 ft wind waves and 1-2 ft southeasterly swell with a period of 8-9 sec. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Summertime pattern in full force for the marine community through the period. Outside of some sea breeze accelerations and distorted wind fields from convection south to southwest winds of 10- 15 knots will prevail. There are some indications winds could be even lighter or concentrated more toward the lower end of the range next week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/ABW