Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 211937
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Claudette will continue to move farther away from
the Coastal Carolinas as a cold front approaches from the west
into Tuesday. The threat of strong storms will increase ahead of
the front Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler weather on
Wednesday. Near-normal temperatures and thunderstorm chances
return late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Increased subsidence and dry air on the back end of Claudette
with W-NW downslope winds will transition back to an
increasingly moist pre-frontal environment into Tues. Pcp water
values down closer to 1.5 inches this afternoon will surge back
above 2 inches as winds back with a deep SW moist return flow
tonight into Tues. Deepening mid to upper trough will push the
front through the Carolinas just in time for max heating. Do not
expect temps quite as warm as today due to increasing cloud
cover but dewpoint temps will remain up around 70 with
increasing SW winds. Expect increasing coverage of thunderstorms
through the aftn with a marginal risk, level 2 of 5, of severe
storms. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Expect
breezy conditions with increasing clouds and high temps reaching
into the 80s.

Storms will diminish through Tues evening with cold front
moving offshore after midnight. The mid to upper trough remains
over the Southeast, but should nudge the front far enough off
the coast with some drier mid level air slowly working its way
down through into early Wed. Looking at soundings and moisture
profiles, column remains saturated up through 10k ft into early
Wed and therefore expect some lingering pcp and clouds to hold
on. Temps will drop below 70 by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Despite being early summer Wednesday brings a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the north. Most places will struggle to or fail to
hit 80 for a high temperature (far northwestern zones may have a
shot as some partial clearing is expected). Offshore on the frontal
boundary a flat wave of low pressure will develop. As this occurs it
will tend to fling moisture back onshore, though models differ
considerably regarding its success. The GFS on one hand is rain-free
here whereas the WRF peppers the coast pretty good but is dry
inland. Anything west of I-95 really seems overly ambitious so POPs
trimmed to slight chance there.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday will bear a lot of similarities to Wednesday as the wedge
is still in place albeit in a weakening state. This will mean that
the clouds and rain chances will spread a bit further to the
northwest, though both will still be graded from NW to SE. As the
wedge continues to break down on Friday the front will return as a
warm front and rain looks like a good bet area-wide. The remainder
of the period looks much more like a typical summertime pattern with
light flow aloft and offshore high pressure the dominant features.
Thunderstorm coverage may be slightly elevated however as there will
still be a few lingering shortwaves traversing the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The affects from Claudette are gone, other than some gusty west
winds. No fog expected tonight with southwest flow. A cold front
approaches from the west at the end of the forecast period.
There could be a squall line Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Convection with periodic MVFR/IFR, late Tue
Night will slide just off the Carolina Coasts come early Wed.
MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible Wed after the CFP but should
improve and clear out inland. Mainly VFR Thu thru Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday night...
Claudette will move farther away off to the northeast while a
cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. Winds and
seas will diminish a bit through early this evening with more of
an offshore component to the flow, but will ramp back up in
tightened gradient flow ahead of cold front through Tues.
Overall, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue with SW
winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Cold front will
slowly push through the area on Tuesday night into early
Wednesday with SW winds diminishing to under 15 knots by
Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday...N to NE winds, not exactly common
in the summer, will be in place on Wednesday as high pressure
wedges in from the north behind Tuesday`s cold front. Seas will
be agitated by the wind shift but tend to remain below advisory
thresholds. The unusual winds remain on Thursday but they will
weaken as the high pressure wedge does the same. More common
southerly winds kick by Friday as the wedge erodes and the
offshore front returns north as a warm front. Seas will settle
somewhat through the whole transition. A very long period SE
swell is expected to coexist with the wind waves but it is only
forecast to be about 1 ft in height.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MBB/RGZ


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