Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 020823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Periods of showers are possible today through Sunday in a warm
and humid airmass. A cold front should sweep this moisture
offshore Sunday night. Cooler and drier weather is expected
Monday into Tuesday, then turning colder Wednesday and Thursday
behind a second cold front. High pressure should reach the
Carolinas by Friday.


Messy pattern continues with at times deep moisture
streaming up from the southwest. What appears to be a potent
shortwave in this flow kicked up nice convection over the waters and
more importantly distorted winds across the inland areas at least
temporarily halting significant fog formation. Regarding pops and
forcing the global and high resolution guidance is in good agreement
keeping conditions mostly dry through the early afternoon hours
outside of a few sprinkles and drizzle. Another wave moves across
late today and this evening and guidance once again in good
agreement depicts the better forcing residing to the southern zones.
Overall pops have been lowered this morning and shifted southward
later today and tonight. Temperatures off to a warm start will reach
the middle 70s possibly higher if any sustained sunshine breaks out.
Tonights lows moderated by the moisture will only drop into the
middle 60s or so.


An unseasonably warm and humid airmass will remain across the
area Sunday. Shower chances have not improved any since the
last major forecast update yesterday afternoon as both the GFS
and ECMWF show a significant layer of dry mid level air moving
across the area during the day. There are also hints of a
convective cap between 850-800 mb which may reduce the number of
showers able to develop due to surface heating. Having said
this, lapse rates above this cap are rather steep and I`ll need
to keep PoPs near 40 percent for Sunday, higher than the GFS but
significantly lower than the NAM or NBM blend. Forecast highs
Sunday are in the mid 70s away from the beaches.

Low pressure over the Ohio Valley Sunday will move northeastward
toward New England while dragging a cold front eastward and
across the coastal Carolinas Sunday night. Veering winds behind
this feature will remove lingering low level moisture and end
shower chances from west to east. Considerable cirrus clouds
will likely continue through the night and into Monday, awaiting
the passage of a shortwave trough Monday night that should
nudge the subtropical jet southward for late Monday night into
Tuesday. Cooler air behind the front should limit Monday`s
highs to the upper 60s, while Tuesday`s highs may only reach 60


A strong shortwave diving southeastward out of Canada is shown
by virtually all models to carve out a trough across the eastern
United States Wednesday. As this feature crosses our longitude
Tuesday night, an accompanying cold front will move offshore
and should be followed by several days of below normal
temperatures in a dry Canadian airmass. 850 mb temps are progged
to fall into the -2C to -4C range Wednesday into Thursday,
likely yielding highs in the mid to upper 50s under sunny
skies. Low temps near or below freezing are possible Wednesday
and Thursday nights, but these will not be accompanied by freeze
warnings since the growing season ended earlier this week
across our section of the Carolinas.

The airmass should begin to modify by Friday as high pressure
reaches the East Coast.


Challenging conditions for the aviation community this morning
as a moisture laden and somewhat weakly forced pattern resides
across the area. IFR conditions have been in and out the past
couple of hours but feel they will be prevalent shortly. It
seems the challenge is shifting to whether or not a brief
respite occurs later today for a few hours but with the sun
angle near its lowest it will be difficult.

Extended Outlook...Periods of low clouds and showers may bring
additional restrictions at times through the remainder of
the weekend. VFR should return Monday and Tuesday.


Through Tonight...Small craft advisory will continue through 8
AM via seas as guidance appears to have caught up with reality.
A potent shortwave embedded in the broad west to southwest flow
may have been the culprit seeing the robust convection that
developed earlier over the waters. Looking forward...the
southerly flow should settle back into a range of around ten
knots becoming a bit more southeast tonight. Significant seas
should settle back to a range of 2-4 feet later after the higher
values this morning.

Sunday through Wednesday...Low pressure across the Ohio Valley
Sunday morning will weaken across New England Monday while a new
low forms off the New England coast. Moderate southwesterly
winds here across the Carolinas will shift westerly Sunday
night as a cold front moves across the area. Offshore winds
should initially be light Monday, but will gain strength during
the afternoon and could approach 20 knots Monday evening as the
aforementioned low develops off the Northeast coast.

The next weather feature of note to affect the area should be a
dry cold front arriving Tuesday night. Cold northwest winds
behind this front could reach 20 knots which should last through
Wednesday. No Small Craft Advisory conditions are currently in
the forecast.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-



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