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000
FXUS62 KILM 230545
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday, before
a drying trend kicks in through the weekend, with above normal
temperatures expected. A more robust cold front comes through
early next week, bringing better rain and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Latest upstream trends still indicate waning convection may
brush Bladen and Pender counties this evening and possibly
overnight. Pops in the 15 to 25 percent range, north of a line
stretching from Jerome to Hampstead. Some tweaking of the POPs
applied. Sfc trof axis to drop south of the FA by daybreak Thu.
Look for winds to slowly veer and subside-some. This includes
the coastal waters, with SCA conditions ending by daybreak Thu
but with some residual choppiness, short period wind waves, to
the seas. Could see 3 to 5 foot seas, especially Cape Fear
south. Very minor tweaks applied to temps/dewpoints based on
latest trends then blending them to the overnight fcst.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A 594 dm ridge centered across TX/OK is producing northerly
mid/upper level flow across the southeastern U.S. Current
temperatures are 95-100 degrees across the large area from
North Carolina west through Texas. An upper disturbance moving
south across the Mid Atlantic states has developed convection in
the Washington DC vicinity and this feature has at least a low
potential of pushing some showers/t-storms as far south as the
Cape Fear region by late this evening. The most likely outcome
is convection will die away as it approaches from the north
after 10 PM, falling victim to increasingly warm, dry air below
600 mb associated with the ridge.

A surface trough/outflow boundary associated with the
dying convection will likely continue moving south, settling
across central South Carolina on Thursday. North-northeasterly
low level winds behind this boundary will knock several degrees
off temperatures for Thursday, especially across southeastern
North Carolina. But with surface dewpoints expected to run 5-7
degrees higher on Thursday versus today, surface-based CAPE
should run significantly higher. The approach of another upper
level disturbance could ignite a southeasterly-moving wave of
showers and t-storms during the afternoon. Forecast PoPs range
from 30-50 percent, highest inland across the Pee Dee region.
Highs on Thursday should range from the upper 80s on the beaches
to the mid 90s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances drop off in a north to south
manner Thursday night, as organized convection continues to push
towards Florida. From there, a rarity for this neck of the woods
in late June, ENE flow lingers through Friday and Friday night.
High pressure shifts eastward through the mid-Atlantic, keeping
the forecast dry. Highs Friday in the mid-to-upper 80s near the
coast, with lower 90s expected inland. Lows Thursday night
generally in the upper 60s to near 70, with Friday night lows
about two degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly dry trend continues through the weekend, with mid-
Atlantic high pressure slowly shifting offshore. Heights aloft
slightly increase, though the upper ridge near the ArkLaTex
region doesn`t really move much. Temperatures at this point are
pretty consistent, with highs in the lower 90s inland and upper
80s at the coast. Lows each night in the upper 60s.

Latest forecast guidance has slowed down the timing of the next
front. Rain and thunderstorm chances now seem to peak by Monday
night into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Pre-frontal
warming Monday causes temperatures inland to shoot up into the
mid 90s inland, before an area-wide trend in the upper 80s to
near 90 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All terminal VFR through midday before afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms develop. Hard to time when any
terminal will be affected, but high probability of brief
MVFR/IFR at all terminals at some point between 18Z and 00Z.
Potential for MVFR/IFR to linger at SC terminal through 03Z
before storms weaken and move farther south. North to northeast
winds expected through 06Z Fri with speeds around 10kt.
Potential for gusts 20-30 kt with strongest convection in the
afternoon and evening, but enhanced winds would be isolated.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Wind speeds will accelerate this evening
in a combination of local seabreeze winds and increased flow
ahead of a trough approaching from the north. We should reach
minimal Small Craft Advisory conditions south of Cape Fear for
wind speeds of 20- 25 knots. North of Cape Fear wind speeds may
not quite reach criteria with only the NBM 90th percentile
showing speeds over 20 knots. But since the advisory is already
in place I`m hesitant to drop it. The Advisory runs from 8 PM
through 4 AM Thursday.

A cluster of thunderstorms currently organizing in the Mid
Atlantic states will sweep southward tonight, likely weakening
and dissipating as they reach southern North Carolina. Watch for
lightning off to the north late this evening to see how these
storms are faring as they move south.

The trough will settle across South Carolina on Thursday
allowing winds to become more onshore in direction during the
day. Scattered thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon,
pushing southeastward across the coastal waters by late
afternoon.

Thursday Night through Monday...Consistent ENE winds expected
through Sunday, pulsing up to 15kts in the afternoon. Cold
front approaches the area towards the beginning of next week,
and winds become more southerly by Sunday night through Monday.
Seas mostly 2-3ft here, with occasional 4ft waves found 20nm
offshore. No hazards in play at this time.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...TRA/IGB