Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280138
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
938 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
The remnants of Zeta will move across the southern Appalachians
Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area early Friday
bringing scattered showers. Cooler and drier weather will
arrive on Saturday with a slight chance of showers returning on
Sunday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather and well above normal temps continue to persist through
Wednesday. Ridging overhead will keep winds calm tonight and
expecting a final round of fog in the Wednesday morning, possibly
dense in spots. May be some lingering low clouds overnight,
particularly coastal SE NC, that may delay onset of fog, but expect
most of the area to be clear. Lows tonight expected to be around 60
due to elevated dewpoints. Ridging overhead slides offshore
tomorrow, allowing deep southerly flow to develop by late tomorrow.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with highs reaching near 80
degrees. Precipitation tomorrow expected to remain west of the area
where the best isentropic lift is, but a stray shower or two west of
I-95, particularly Wed night, is possible. With remnant circulation
of Zeta west of the area Wed night, winds will remain slightly
elevated and inhibit any fog formation. Lows Wed night in the mid
60s under increased WAA and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Zeta will continue to move rapidly northeast
from the western Carolinas, more specifically the spine of the
Appalachians, toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Thurs night. A
stiff S-SW flow will develop as gradient tightens between Zeta
and Atlantic high pressure to the east ahead of a trough/front
extending from Zeta. Expect increasing clouds and chc of shwrs,
mainly late aftn into evening on Thurs. Although QPF looks to be
on the low sides, the possibility of a stray thunderstorm could
produce localized heavier rain. Drier air should begin to wrap
around into the Eastern Carolinas after midnight in deeper W-SW
flow, but mid to upper trough could squeeze out a shower as it
tracks over the area toward daybreak Fri with a deep NW flow of
cooler and drier air to follow behind cold front into Fri
morning. Expect warm and humid weather on Thurs with temps into
the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday aftn into Sat will be cool and dry with below normal
temps. The cool northerly winds will diminish through Fri and be
lighter over the weekend as high pressure extends down from the
north as the center migrates eastward from the Great Lakes to
off the coast of New England. The high temp on Fri may be the
close to temps just after midnight Thurs night as cool and dry
air advect in.

Expect plenty of sunshine over the weekend with cool fall-like
weather which will modify slightly heading into Sunday, before
another cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air for
Monday. Front looks like it will come through mainly dry late
Sun with more in the way of some clouds. Strong high pressure
will build across from the central CONUS Mon into Tues as deep
mid to upper trough crosses the coast on Mon. Overall, expect
very cool and dry air mass to settle over the area with bright
early Nov sunshine fighting against the CAA Mon into Tues. The
850 temps will plummet into Fri, dropping a good 10 degrees by
Fri evening and although they will rebound slightly on Sunday,
the next cold front will drop them another few degrees by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period with light and variable
winds. Models continue to favor more fog tonight after
midnight continuing into early/mid morning Wed, with the best
chances for low vsbys at KLBT/KFLO. Most of the IFR/MVFR will
end by 14Z Wed with VFR returning and dry conditions through the
rest of the day.

Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning
hrs Thu from ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri,
expect Zeta remnants to push across the Carolinas with rain
likely followed by a CFP and mainly dry wx for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday night: Ridging overhead will keep marine
conditions calm through early Wednesday afternoon, with winds
under 5 kts and seas 1-2 ft. Ridging slides offshore on
Wednesday, combining with remnants of Zeta approaching from the
SW will increase winds and seas into Wednesday night. 5-10 SE
winds Wednesday evening veer to southerly 10-15 kts Wednesday
night. Seas increase to 2-4 ft Wednesday night. Seas
predominantly SE swell, with a building S wind wave Wednesday
night.

Thursday through Sunday...
The gradient will tighten through Thurs as remnants of Zeta
move northeast through the Appalachians toward the Mid Atlantic
coast by Thurs night. The strong S-SW push will produce rapidly
rising seas on Thurs with SCA conditions by Thurs aftn/eve
through Fri morning. The peak of winds and seas should occur
just ahead of cold front after midnight Thurs night into early
Fri.

Winds will veer around to the W through Fri morning and then
N-NE by later on Fri as the winds diminish. Seas should subside
below SCA thresholds to around 3 to 5 ft by Fri aftn, but surge
of cool air Fri night should produce a spike in winds and seas
again Fri night. Northerly winds will veer and diminish slowly
as air mass slowly modifies heading through the weekend. Another
strong cold front will cross the waters Sun night with another
surge of cold northerly winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS/43
MARINE...RGZ/VAO



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