Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 040003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
703 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

A weak area of low pressure offshore moving north will pass
near the Cape Fear region through Monday bringing a few
showers. Rain chances will then increase during the middle of
the week as the next system moves into the area. Low pressure
late in the week may bring another round of rain and some
thunderstorms to the region.


No major changes with the latest update. Main concern overnight
is regarding fog once again. The fog may become locally dense,
especially late in SC as there should be less sky cover there overall.


Surface trough/weak low off the SC coast this afternoon will
drift north overnight, reaching the Outer Banks on Monday
afternoon. Precipitation associated with the low will remain
predominantly offshore, however some showers are expected to
push into the Cape Fear region late tonight and into Monday as
the low passes slowly by. Max QPF should be on the order of
0.25", highest across coastal SE NC, trailing off to a few
hundredths further inland. Temps will hold in the mid 50s most
areas overnight. Highs Monday will range from the upper 60s along
the coast to 70-75 across the Pee Dee, although there will be a
light northerly breeze on the back side of the surface low.


Relatively quiet period through Tuesday. Weak surface low pressure
skirt up the mid-Atlantic coastline Monday night, gradually bringing
an end to the rain chances north of Cape Fear. Lows in the lower

We`re caught in between weather patterns Tuesday, with zonal
flow aloft drying out the mid-levels briefly. Highs expected to
reach the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon, with a few spots of sunshine
in between the clouds.

Things get more interesting Tuesday night, with an active shortwave
ejecting out of the Gulf and moving northeastward towards the
Carolinas. Widespread rain picks up from the southwest to the
northeast throughout the night. Lows in the mid 50s.


Plenty of rain to go around Wednesday, with some areas accumulating
up to 2 inches. This shortwave carries a cold front with it,
which should push offshore late Wednesday night. This ends the
rain chances through Thursday night. Guidance in better
agreement this time concerning these trends, particularly with
the modest ridging producing less cloud cover.

The next system due to arrive Friday night through Saturday, per
the latest trends. The timing continues to slow down just a touch
here, though scattered showers are still in play for Friday.
Moisture indices certainly look a lot better Saturday, and with
building instability, we may even stand a chance at some scattered
early spring thunderstorms. Gradual clearing expected by Sunday.
More specifics and better timing will certainly be figured out in
the coming days.

Highs each day in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows linger in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.


High confidence in restrictions at times across SE NC and NE SC
through 00Z/05 as weak low pressure offshore shifts northward,
although there is low to moderate confidence regarding
timing/severity of impacts. Most confidence is regarding mainly
MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Monday morning, although LIFR
is possible as well. Confidence is lower regarding visibilities
due to uncertainty in higher cloud amounts and sea fog evolution
near the coast. At this time, it appears the best chance of IFR
or lower visibility will be at KFLO. Also, mainly light to
moderate showers will be possible as well, especially at KILM
after 06Z.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions from low clouds/fog are likely
at times through at least Wednesday night. Showers and some
thunderstorms are also expected Tuesday night through Wednesday


Through Monday...A weak trough just off the coast will evolve into
a weak low overnight as it drifts slowly north. Winds will back from
E to N by Monday afternoon as the low reaches the Outer Banks.
Scattered to numerous showers near the low will cross the coastal
waters, with the highest concentration expected north of Little
River Inlet late tonight into Monday morning. Waves will consist
predominantly of a 3-4 ft SE swell around 9 seconds.

Areas of sea fog will remain possible tonight into Monday morning,
however conditions appear less favorable going forward as winds
shift more towards the north.

Monday Night through Friday...Northerly winds at 5-10kts veer
to the northeast Tuesday, before veering more the southeast by
Wednesday morning. Seas hang out at 3-4ft. A southerly surge
picks up ahead of a cold front throughout the day Wednesday.
Winds look to gust above 20kts, and seas look to hit Small Craft
Advisory thresholds. Front moves offshore Wednesday night, and
veer to the northwest and decrease to around 10kts by Thursday.
Seas drop back down to 3-4ft. Winds yet again continue to veer
through Friday, eventually coming from the east-southeast.





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