Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
646 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend will bring seasonable temperatures and fairly low
humidity for late June. Rain chances increase with a cold front
by Tuesday, the boundary possibly stalling and keeping the
weather unsettled, though not enough to improve the drought
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high builds in from the north today and tonight. The 5h
ridge to the west starts to expand east later today into tonight as
the cutoff east of the Mid-Atlantic coast opens up and lifts
northeast. Dry air aloft and mid-level subsidence increase as the
ridging aloft expands east. Increasing subsidence aloft and
aforementioned dry air will prevent deep convection from developing.
Morning clouds will dissipate a few hours after sunrise with
scattered flat cumulus developing in the afternoon. Northerly flow
will keep highs near climo. Areas along the coast may end up with
highs running a little below climo due to enhanced onshore flow.
Clear skies and light to calm winds will allow for some radiational
cooling tonight. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s ushered in by the
surface high will allow for lows a little below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Simply put Saturday will be a pleasant day. High  pressure centered
off the DelMarva coast will bring a light NE to E wind that will
import dewpoints much lower than normal for late June, and mixing
will cause them to dip even lower away from the coast and the
oceanic influence. Temperatures will be seasonably warm but the low
RH values will not yield any apparent temps above actual. Mid level
flow will remain northerly on the eastern periphery of a ridge well
to our west. Nighttime lows will be seasonable and dewpoints will
creep up just a bit as mixing grows shallow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another sunny day Sunday but dewpoints not expected to drop as low
as Saturday since the center of high pressure to our north moves
east and we lose the northerly component of the surface wind. Monday
turns a bit warmer and more humid and a few clouds should enter the
mix as a cold front approaches. Tough to say how much rain chances
ramp up Monday night as opposed to Tuesday as forecast soundings
don`t really show deep layer saturation until 12Z, which may rather
impressively last until Thursday; good news for possibly making
progress on our drought, though the pattern will not be supportive
of substantial rains due to no mid level support in nearly zonal
flow. The entire long term period shouldn`t feature any significant
deviation from climatological temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal sites cleared out a bit earlier than expected, but
satellite showing MVFR ceilings still in play for inand sites.
Ceilings will improve during the next few hours with MVFR
becoming VFR by 14Z. VFR will prevail through Sat morning with
east to northeast winds into the evening becoming light out of
the northeast tonight. Boundary layer winds tonight should be
just strong enough to prevent any widespread fog, but brief patchy
MVFR fog cannot be ruled out.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Mon with possible MVFR
conditions Tue afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:

Surface high building down the coast through tonight will maintain
east to northeast winds over the waters. Speeds today will be on the
high end of the 10 to 15 kt range with speeds decreasing tonight as
gradient weakens a bit. Seas run 2 to 3 ft with occasional 4 ft out
near 20 nm today and tonight. Seas will be a mix of an easterly wind
wave and a southerly swell.

Saturday through Tuesday... E to NE wind on Saturday as high
pressure sits off the DelMarva. NE wind chop and light E swell to
yield 2-3 ft seas. Just a slight increase in the energy of both wave
trains Sunday making the 2 ft seas more scarce. Flow turns to the SW
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. The light E swell will
continue and the wind waves will start to adjust but overall sig
wave height forecast not to change. Wind veers all the way around to
NE if not all the way E following FROPA Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM


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