Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 171356
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
956 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures briefly return today ahead of weak
cold front tonight. A stronger cold front will sweep through
the area Monday night bringing chilly weather through Tuesday
night. Warmer weather will develop later in the week with rain
chances returning for Friday and Saturday as Gulf coast low
pressure moves northeastward.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mix of fog (locally dense) and low stratus is across the area
currently, with patchy sea fog over the coastal waters. The front
stalled just to our south will lift north by daybreak. Today should
remain mainly dry as a cold front approaches from the west, rain
chances increasing into the evening and tonight. Better moisture
will be delegated to NE SC, closer to the coast. Precip chances will
thus be a bit lower for SE NC, especially inland, as less moisture
will expand into that area. Not expecting any convection due to low
instability and frontal passage timing. The cold front should move
offshore overnight, being offshore by the end of the period. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s, lows in the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be offshore at the start of the short term with any
rain having come to an end. Although the front will push offshore
early, the 5h trough axis will still be west of the area. Cloud
cover in the morning will try and clear out around midday as drier
air moves in from the west. Lingering moisture under the subsidence
inversion, around 850mb or so, may keep skies on the overcast side
despite the arrival of drier air. Highs Monday will be a little
below climo, unless skies can fully clear, then highs near climo
would be expected. Full clearing likely won`t develop until the 5h
trough passes, late Mon evening. This is also when the cold air
arrives, with significant cold advection setting up Mon night.
Temperatures Mon night may be cold enough for frost across inland
areas, but there is likely to be more than enough wind to prevent
any frost development. The winds should also keep temperatures from
hitting the freezing mark. Some of the guidance is spitting out some
showers with the passage of the trough and the cold pool aloft.
While this can`t be ruled out, it would be more likely to occur if
skies

Much cooler and drier air spreads over the region on Tue.
Precipitable water drops to 0.17" which is just shy of the record
low for the date. Despite sunny skies temperatures will end up
around 10 degrees below climo, such is the strength of the cold air.
Despite its strength, the cold air does not hang around long. The
exit of the 5h trough axis, which quickly moves off the coast before
sunrise Tue, leaves flat flow aloft over the Southeast. Weak warm
advection sets up before the end of the day Tue and continues
overnight. Lows Tue night will end up a little warmer than lows Mon
night due to a combination of warm advection and mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Middle of the week is marked by passage of a weak, dry backdoor cold
front. Wedge develops behind the front, setting up what could
potentially be the next rain maker for the area. Southern stream
system congeals over the western Gulf of Mexico Thu then tracks
east. The surface low that eventually forms moves along the Gulf
coast and across northern FL Fri. The big question will be how
strong is the southern stream 5h wave/low and will there be enough
of a connection with the northern stream to pull the low up the
coast, along the stalled front. The bulk of the operational guidance
is hinting that this is what will happen, but there is a small
portion of the ensemble members showing some alternate solutions.
These have the low passing farther off the coast or even continuing
due east instead of moving up the coast. Since most of the support
is for the low moving northeast near the coast (anywhere from
slightly inland to just offshore) will continue carrying elevated
rain chances Fri and Sat, although confidence is on the lower side.
This pattern would lead to highs near to slightly below climo with
lows above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected after sunrise as VSBYs
will be clearing up this morning. SW winds near 8 kts with gusts
near 15 kts. Shower chances will increase this evening ahead of
a cold front with best chances for the NE SC coast right now
where MVFR CIGs may be possible. Gusts should diminish after
sunset with winds becoming northerly at the end of the period
with the cold frontal passage, gusts returning briefly.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Seas 2-3 ft with a ESE swell at 8-9 seconds and a SSW wind wave
at 5-6 seconds. SW winds 10-15 kts will persist through the day
ahead of a cold front. Shower chances will increase headed into
the evening, the front moving offshore late Sun night, winds
turning to out of the NNW.

Monday through Thursday:
Period of greatest concern will be late Mon into Tue, once the
cold advection kicks in and the gradient tightens up. Winds in
excess of 25kt with higher gusts briefly develop Mon night
before starting to ease around dawn. Not expecting a long
duration headline, but 9ish hours seems reasonable. Offshore
component will keep seas under 6ft despite the strong winds.
Northwest flow on Tue backs to southwest in the afternoon with
southwest persisting into Thu. Speeds increase from Tue into
Wed, flirting with 20 kt at times. Weak front moves in from the
north early Thu with light northeast flow setting up during the
day. Gradient is weak, keeping speeds under 10 kt. Outside of
Mon night into Tue, seas will be under 5 ft with much of the
period under 3 ft. The dominant wave will be the wind wave,
shifting between a southerly wind wave and a northerly wind wave
as the winds first veer to northerly, then veer to southerly
before returning back to northerly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM


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