Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050924
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
524 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue with a better chance of
afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday. Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected this weekend and into early next week with
a chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stalled front will lie across the Central Carolinas during
this period. Forcing along this boundary will be enough for
convection to fire along it each aftn into the early evening.
Enough instability will be availble early this morning and
again late tonight for isolated convection to develop. Throw in
a mid-level s/w trof this morning, and the result of more than
just isolated coverage. Expect the sea breeze boundary each day
to provide additional forcing for convection to break out
once the daytime destabilization process reaches convective
temps. Overall POPs from midday thru mid-evening today and again
Thu, will reach the mid chance range. The threat for convection
outside the "normal summer time" hours will depend on the
forcing from these mid-level s/w trofs, ie. like what`s now
occurring across the western portions of the ILM CWA. The
overnight convective debris clouds this morning and likely again
Thu morning, will initially delay the normal days insolation
process and delay the diurnally driven temp curve. But overall,
have indicated max temps at or slightly hier than what the
consensus MOS Guidance dictates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deep southwesterly flow will provide ample moisture ahead of a
lifting upper-level trough. Scattered thunderstorms are likely on
Thursday and may linger into the evening hours as weak
perturbations in the upper-level flow sustain elevated
convection after sunset. Some of the storms could be severe with
the wind profile showing a small amount of shear compared to a
typical August air mass. On Friday, scattered thunderstorms are
again likely with a weak shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic.
The main focus of shower activity is likely to be displaced to
the north, but still expect afternoon storms to develop and
continue into the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain near
normal during the day with the increase in humidity keeping
overnight temperatures slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Indications are that the upper-trough will become more zonal and
continue to move eastward this weekend. This will lead to quieter
weather and temperatures increasing to slightly above normal. Expect
typical afternoon storm coverage on Sunday and into early next week.
Large upper ridge over the desert southwest will block any
significant waves of energy for organized or focused thunderstorms
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected thruout during the next 24 hrs
thru 06Z Thu. Moist ground conditions from recent rains, will be
enough for a brief period of MVFR during the pre-dawn hrs from
patchy ground fog especially if sfc winds go calm. The stalled
front across the Central Carolinas combined with a weak s/w trof
aloft, has resulted in the firing of isolated but organized
convection early this morning. LBT and FLO terminals have the
potential to observe this activity thru daybreak. MYR and CRE
could further join in given the latest KLTX 88D trends. The
daily convective threat may be delayed later this aftn if this
early morning`s convection becomes more widespread with
associated debris clouds taking longer to scour out. Will either
use PROB30 or TEMPO groups to identify the best opportune times
for convection to occur today thru this evening. Winds generally
calm or SW less than 5 kt during the pre-dawn Wed hrs, backing
to the S at 5 to 10 kt for this aftn into the evening hrs for
the inland terminals. The 3 coastal terminals will see same
scenario except speeds will run 10 to 15 kt at the peak of the
sea breeze circulation late this aftn thru the mid to late
evening hrs.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...

Thursday Night thru Sun:
Calm winds in a weak gradient field will make for a benign weather
pattern for mariners this week. Seas will generally be 2-3 feet with
no significant swell likely. The only notable threat for boaters
will be the elevated thunderstorm chances each day. Conditions will
continue to improve early next week with light winds and waves 1-2
feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH/43
MARINE...DCH/21



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