Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 040307
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1007 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing and drying is expected overnight into Thursday. A dry
cold front will bring cooler air Friday into the weekend, while
low pressure passes south of the area, bringing a few clouds
Saturday. A spring-like warming trend will take place next week.

&&

.UPDATE/...

No significant edits this update, shallow fog emerging in spots,
but this should not be the entire overnight theme, as drying
underway lowers absolute humidity and local dewpoints, helping
to stem fog growth, after midnight to 1 am.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
All precip has pushed offshore already this aftn, paving way for a
completely dry Near Term Period. This while developing sfc low
pressure and an associated potent mid-level shortwave trough pull
farther offshore. The small amount of sky cover and 5-10 kt winds
currently seen will both diminish tonight, allowing for good
radiational cooling conditions...lows in the mid/upr 30s.
Sunny/clear skies then for Thu/Thu night as sfc high pressure builds
in from the NW. After highs mainly in the 60s Thu (near to slightly
above normal), temps drop back down into the 30s Thu night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure in the region keeps the coastal Carolinas dry, with
northwesterly flow allowing for cool high temperatures in the mid-to-
upper 50s on Friday. Upper-level trough starts to swing through the
Southeast Friday night, with moisture increasing aloft. This
increases cloud cover through most of the short term period, but
atmosphere remains dry closer to the surface, with only a slight
chance of showers possible for parts of coastal Georgetown County,
SC on Saturday. Plentiful cloud cover knocks back the high
temperatures a few degrees for Saturday. Atmosphere dries out more
Saturday night, which puts lows near or just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep trough moves out of the area Sunday, and the atmosphere
continues to dry out as high pressure begins to move into the
Southeast. Though Sunday still looks chilly, with highs 10-12 degree
below normal for early March, a warming trend is expected through
the rest of the long term forecast period. High pressure centered
over the Southeast moves offshore by Tuesday, setting up return flow
that allows for highs in the 60s to near 70 by Wednesday. Some
guidance shows a cold front possibly moving in towards the end of
the period, but computer model solutions diverge greatly at this
point. For now, enjoy the sun!

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Excellent flight conditions, as SKC becomes widespread amid
diminishing wind. Only a slight uptick in wind aft 15z, W-NW 4
to 8 kts, clear skies. W wind easing to near calm at end of TAF
cycle.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Low pressure to the south may bring
ceilings on Saturday, but right now it appears these clouds will
be in VFR range with little or no restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday Night...A SCA remains in effect until 10pm
this evening, as 6 ft seas out near 20nm and frequent 25 kt
gusts continue. Thereafter, as sfc high pressure builds in from
the NW, both winds and seas will diminish through Thu. Some
uptick in the pressure gradient ahead of the high Thu night will
lead to winds close to SCA thresholds, but for now expectations
are for conditions to remain just below criteria. Seas just 2-3
ft Thu night.

Friday through Monday...Northerly winds at 15-20kts on Friday become
more NNW at 5-10kts by Friday night, with seas near 1ft at the coast
and 2-3ft out 20nm from shore. Winds veer slightly to the north at
10-15kts through Saturday and Sunday, with seas out 20nm only
dropping slightly to around 2ft. Winds start to become more ENE at 5-
10kts by Monday afternoon, as high pressure starts to move offshore.
Seas remain steady at 1-2ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...8
MARINE...MAS/IGB


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