Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 051833
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
233 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated late day showers or a thunderstorm is possible ahead
of a cold front that will cross the coast tonight, then stall
offshore. Expect cooler conditions, variably cloudy skies, and
a slight chance of showers Friday. High pressure will follow
for the weekend, bringing cool and quiet weather through
Mother`s Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Amplifying longwave upper trof expected during this period.
Embedded mid-level s/w trofs will primarily bypass the ILM CWA
NW thru N of the FA. The associated dynamics will be enough to
aid convection well ahead of the cold front that will be
dropping SE-SSE. The sfc trof pushing across this morning will
result in weak convergence and the continued production of
showers with isolated thunder with overall coverage minimal.
Somewhat lacking this aftn will be a sfc convergent zone for
convection to fire off. Enough heating will be avbl, ie sfc
temps reaching the 90 degree mark, for enough instability for
convection to fire off and feed on. Will keep POPs at the low
chance category. Do not have POPs immediately along the cold
front and it`s passage. Strong/svr threat will be marginal with
strong winds/hail the primary svr threats.

Various MOS guidance has trended lower during the past several
days now and will tend to go along with. Have max temps today
reaching 90 especially East of the I-95 corridor. The CFP will
occur from midnight thru the pre-dawn Thu hrs. Models indicate a
noticeable drying and cooler trend during Thu with winds nearly
180 degree shift from Wed, from the NE. The front is progged to
stall near the GA coastline Thu with overrunning moisture
leading to a possible stratocu/altocu deck. The moisture atm
thru the column remains rather shallow and have held off with
any pcpn until Thu evening. Max temps Thu will be a good 15
degrees lower than what`s being fcst for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough approaches the area on Thursday night and will
work together with the stalled frontal boundary to create a
weak low pressure system offshore. Upper-level energy will also
help to develop scattered showers late Thursday and Thursday
night. Low pressure pushes further offshore on Friday with
lingering showers following the lifting trough. A few showers
are possible over portions of NC on Friday morning, but rain
chances will decrease quickly from SW to NE by Friday afternoon.
Quiet and cool for the remaining of Friday with cool air
advecting on the west side of the exiting low pressure system.
Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 40s as dry and
cool air trickles into the Carolinas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather continues through the weekend with high pressure
dominating. Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday
with a rapid warming trend taking place Sunday as high pressure
slips offshore and a warm front lifts north of the area on
Sunday evening. Pattern begins to shift early next week with a
weak surface boundary dipping southward Sunday night into
Monday. This may bring a period of unsettled weather, mainly
Monday and Monday night. Front will likely stall south of the
area on Tuesday, creating another chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR, isolated showers and TSTMs through 4z, drying trend
remainder of TAF cycle. Convection should reach coast in late
evening, with isolated gusts to 35 kt possible.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions thru the period.
Pcpn-less CFP slated for late tonight across all terminals.
Possible MVFR conditions from clouds and possible pcpn Thu into
Fri due to a stalled front just south of the area. A secondary
CFP late Fri followed by dry high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...
Extended the SCA thru midnight tonight for the ILM NC Waters.
Continued to mention few/ocnl gusts to 25 kt across the ILM SC
Waters...just not enough frequency to post a SCA. This takes it
up to the CFP. Tightened sfc pg ahead of the approaching cold
front from the mainland, will produce SW-WSW winds 15 to 20 kt
except around 20 kt for the NC Waters with gusts to 25 to 30 kt.
The hier frequency of SCA gusts will occur across the ILM NC
Waters. Expect 5 to 6 second period seas, with not much of an
underlying swell present or expected this period. The CFP will
drop through the local waters during the pre-dawn Thu hours.
Wind shift to the N to NE will occur after FROPA and will
briefly gust over 20 kt as drier and cooler air surges follow.
This will be brief as weak sfc high settles across the area
during Thu with resulting onshore winds diminishing-some.
Overall seas will trend lower during Thu due to the decrease of
wind driven waves and the lack of an underlying swell.

Thursday Night through Sunday...
Winds around 10 knots on Thursday night as low pressure
develops offshore. Low pressure pushes well offshore by Friday
morning with northerly winds advecting cooler and drier air as
high pressure builds into the area. Seas 2-3 feet. Offshore wind
speeds will increase slightly to 10-15 knots with the building
high. High pressure mostly overhead on Saturday with winds
around or less than 10 knots. Seas remaining around 2 feet. Warm
front lifts north of the area on Sunday as wind speeds increase
to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots and the potential for
hazardous conditions for Small Craft. Waves increase to 3-5 feet
late Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250.

&&

$$


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