582
FXUS62 KILM 110343
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1043 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Storm system will continue moving through the area into early
Saturday, bringing some light wintry precipitation and minor
impacts away from the coast. Cold and dry weather will then
return through the weekend and most of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
The bulk of precipitation will end from west to east over the
next few hours although some patchy light freezing rain will
continue into the early morning hours. Warm air advection aloft
will maintain freezing rain with no expectation for sleet or
wintry mix to return.

Temperatures at the surface should gradually rise above
freezing for most areas, but western counties could stay below
freezing as winds turn westerly in the wake of the surface low.
Patchy ice on the roadways will make travel difficult along and
west of I-95 through mid-morning Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winter weather event underway this afternoon and after a bit of
an early start with sleet and even snow lingering in Georgetown
and Williamsburg counties the forecast is unfolding much as
planned. Temperatures have warmed up nicely despite dense
overcast and formidable dew point depressions and most areas if
reporting anything are reporting mainly the liquid variety. For
tonight the winter weather advisory continues as the rain could
become heavy enough to see temperatures drop to near or just
below freezing. Coastal areas are all but out of the game (as
expected) with temperatures near 40 but points most northwest
could still see in and around 0.15 inches of freezing rain. For
Saturday expect clearing with highs in the middle to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cool and dry for the short term period as low level ridge sits
overhead and PWATs drop to 0.2-0.3". Temps in the low to mid 20s
both Saturday and Sunday nights, a little over 10F below
normal. Clear skies Sunday with high temps in the mid 40s (also
well below normal).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fairly uneventful long term period as cool and dry weather
continues for majority of next week. The only exception to the
"dry" part of the forecast is during the day Monday, as low
pressure moves eastward over northern FL and increased mid level
moisture moves across the SE. The bulk of the moisture will
stay to the south, and with abundant dry air at the surface
there is only minimal rain chances for southern Georgetown
county Monday afternoon. Otherwise partly cloudy Monday and
mostly sunny rest of week. Temps will continue to run below
normal, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Tuesday night
through Wednesday night is expected to be the coldest part of
next week, with strong CAA behind cold front Monday night, as
low temps drop to 20F and highs around 40F Wed. If there is any
wind either Tues or Wed night, may need a Cold Weather Advisory
for wind chills of 15F.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated showers of rain, sleet, and freezing rain continue to
push across the area from SW to NE this evening.

Coastal terminals are clear of any frozen precip this evening,
but progressively heavier rain overnight will bring VFR
conditions to IFR overnight. Confidence is high that IFR will
develop, but the patchy nature of precip and variable winds make
it difficult to nail down the timing. Conditions could be
variable late this evening before restrictions dominate.

Inland VFR should diminish quickly to IFR over the next few
hours. Sleet and freezing rain will become all freezing rain by
midnight in these locations. A gradual transition to all liquid
precip will occur late tonight as warm advection and westerly
winds develop.

As the back edge of the low exits the region after midnight,
some areas of LLWS may develop (around 40 knots out of the S
expected at this time).

MVFR/IFR lingers on Saturday before gradual clearing late in the
day.

Extended Outlook...High pressure will bring drier air and a
return to mostly VFR later Sunday through Monday. A disturbance
on Tuesday and Wednesday could bring brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Relatively light wind fields will shape up
tonight quickly as low pressure moves across the area. South to
southwest winds will develop/increase to a healthy 20-25 knots
for a few hours with higher gusts. Will stick with the small
craft headline as gales may be a challenge in what is certainly
worked over shelf waters from a temperature standpoint and warm
advection convection processes. For Saturday expect west to
eventually northwest winds decreasing throughout the day.
Significant seas will ramp up later tonight to a brief 5-7 feet
then drop off through the day Saturday with the change in fetch.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Stiff offshore winds
Saturday night relax a bit and turn northerly Sunday as high
pressure briefly moves overhead, before becoming light and
variable late Sunday through Sunday night. West-northwest winds
redevelop Monday afternoon as low pressure passes well to the
south and a dry cold front moves across late Monday. Northwest
winds persist through Wednesday, peaking around 15-20 kts
Tuesday night. Seas will be quickly improving Saturday night,
with seas of 2-3 ft expected by Sunday morning as the offshore
wind wave weakens. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range Sunday
through Tuesday, increasing to 2-3 ft Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to strengthened offshore wind chop.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ087-096-
     099-105.
SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/VAO