Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 231948
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
348 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into
tonight, before a drying trend takes hold through this weekend.
Better rain chances come around by early next week. Temperatures
linger near normal for late June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Multiple boundaries are criss-crossing the Carolinas this afternoon.
North to northeast low level winds behind the most significant
boundary across South Carolina have set up a weak convergence axis
across the eastern Piedmont into the interior coastal plain.
Although persistent mid level clouds have reduced insolation and
held SBCAPE values to barely 1000 J/kg here, there is still
potential for scattered showers and t-storms to develop during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast PoPs have been
reduced to 20-30 percent, but there is still a small chance gusty
winds could develop in convection due to marginal inverted-V
soundings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad ridge aloft in the ArkLaTex region doesn`t really move
much this period, but alas, heights thicken ever so slightly.
Surface high pressure in the mid-Atlantic starts to push
offshore, which maintains some rare ENE flow for late June.
Subsidence and a cap in the 850-700mb layer keeps the forecast
dry, with only a few cumulus clouds to worry about. Lows both
nights linger in the mid-to-upper 60s. Highs Saturday in the mid
80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rest of the weekend continues to look dry, with surface high
pressure moving further east offshore. Winds start to build more
of an ESE trend Sunday, which helps high temperatures kick up
about a degree or two from the previous day.

Monday, a cold front moves through Appalachia and the Piedmont
region. Guidance continues to slow down the progression of this
system, with the bulk of rain and thunderstorms reserved for
Monday night and especially Tuesday/Wednesday. Cumulus and
cirrus clouds increase Monday, with pre-frontal warming allowing
highs to shoot up into the low-to-mid 90s. Clouds and rain keep
highs in the upper 80s through the rest of this period, with
the front stalling near the coast, and several surface lows
forming along the boundary. Lows remain consistent in the upper
60s to lower 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered cumulus in the KILM vicinity plus mid level ceilings
inland are producing VFR conditions currently. Instability is
building and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
between 19-21 UTC across the interior sections of eastern NC and
SC. Storm motion will be southeastward, and short-lived MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible in these scattered storms. Activity
should tend to dissipate after 00 UTC with the loss of daytime
heating, however a moderate potential exists for MVFR ceilings
to develop after 09z inland at the KFLO and KLBT airports. VFR
conditions will develop after 13 UTC as the boundary layer
warms.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms
Tuesday as a front approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...A weak seabreeze this afternoon has veered wind
directions near the coast more directly onshore, while out
toward 20 miles offshore wind directions remain more northerly.
Winds should average northeasterly in direction tonight with
speeds increasing to 10-15 knots overnight as a weak surge makes
its way down the coast from Virginia. Directions will veer more
directly onshore with a weak seabreeze again Friday afternoon,
but with little change in speed.

A short period wave produced by yesterday`s breezy southwest winds
continues to feed into the area and has produced wave heights of 2-3
feet inside 20 miles from shore, with the Frying Pan Shoals buoy
offshore showing waves averaging almost 5 feet. These larger waves
should continue through the evening before gradually diminishing
overnight into Friday.

Friday Night through Tuesday...ENE winds continue through the
weekend, generally at 5-10kts, pulsing up to 15kts during the
day. By Monday, a cold front starts to approach the area,
stalling near the coast by Monday night into Tuesday. Winds at
this point veer southerly at similar speeds. Seas hold steady at
2-3ft throughout this period, with no hazards in sight at the
moment.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/IGB


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