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000
FXUS62 KILM 281336
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
936 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry for the next couple days as a front remains
stalled just far enough off the coast. High pressure will then
build more into the area from the north with drier and slightly
warmer weather likely this weekend through early next week. An
offshore trough could bring a few coastal showers toward mid next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surface wedge remains in place across the Carolinas today. Given
relatively cool northerly flow, and abundance of clouds, will
tweak the forecast max temps down a couple of degrees. Otherwise
no changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Basically a persistence forecast through the near term period
as surface high pressure remains in place across the area. There
is some indication of pressures falling during the day but it
will be gradual. This may lead to highs being a degree or two
warmer as opposed to Wednesday (middle 70s) but going on the
cooler side of guidance probably remains a solid play. Similar
story for Friday morning lows with middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change this period as surface high pressure remains to
the north and slowly strengthens as low pressure offshore moves
away. Expect mostly dry conditions but can`t completely rule out
some showers from time to time near the coast. Temperatures
should be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong surface high pressure centered to the north will maintain
a rather persistently dry pattern to start the week with an
increasing risk for mainly just some coastal showers toward mid
week as the high weakens and moisture increases from a trough
offshore. However, no significant rainfall is anticipated
through the period. Temperatures should warm slightly and reach
slightly above normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect another MVFR kind of day as the low clouds hang on. Some
improvement is possible points south mainly in FlO as the
surface ridge weakens. Some fog has developed there as well
possibly an indication of some clearing already. The other sites
may make a run or two later this morning and afternoon at VFR
but appears short lived in nature.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Moderate to high confidence. Likely
to see MVFR continue into Friday, especially along the coast.
Predominantly VFR expected Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Very marginal small craft advisory continues
as 41013 is wobbling around six feet and consistent northeast
winds around 20 knots. Will let the headline continue through
the midday. Although winds will remain from the northeast speeds
will decrease later today and tonight closer to the lower end
of a 15-20 knot range. Significant seas will remain mostly in a
range of 3-5 feet with any six footers dropping off.

Friday through Monday...Moderate to high confidence this
period. Should see elevated winds/seas continuing as high
pressure remains to the north maintaining a slightly enhanced
pressure gradient over the local waters. Seas look to be at or
below 4 feet, although could reach 5 or maybe even 6 feet early
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding is expected through
the weekend for both the beaches of Southeast North Carolina and
Northeast South Carolina and along the Lower Cape Fear River from
downtown Wilmington toward the coast. Coastal flooding will occur
with high tides each evening and potentially also during morning
high tides.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RJB/SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...