Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 191144
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
644 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through mid week bringing dry
weather and gradually warming temperatures. A cold front will
likely bring our next rain chances Thursday night and Friday
before drier weather returns next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track for clearing skies as one area of clouds
exits the area, another one upstream will approach later,
bringing a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds that have plagued the eastern Carolinas will
finally move off to the east as entire system moves off into the
Atlantic. Although the cirrus canopy will shift eastward, a
potent shortwave will pass across the area this aftn before
moving offshore after midnight. Looking at current satellite,
see a patch of mid level clouds around 15k ft associated with
this feature. Expect some of these clouds to affect the area
this aftn and may even see a period of partly to mostly cloudy
skies with a passing deck around 15k ft. Otherwise, dry high
pressure extending down the eastern US will maintain a light
northerly flow.

Decent radiational cooling as high clouds shift eastward and
winds remain calm early this morning. Low temps will be down
below freezing inland of the coast to start the day. After this
cool start to the day, temps will rebound making a run for
normal temps around 60, but will most likely fall just shy.
Temps tonight will below normal once again with lows down near
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure offshore and high pressure to our north will
maintain clear skies and cool temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure migrates southward on Wednesday
and will be the warmer of the two (highs near 60 on Wednesday).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging builds across the southeast into Thursday with a more
significant warmup despite increasing high clouds. Showers will
move through the area late Thursday night into early Friday
with the strong cold front and mid level trough. Showers are
likely to be broken with widespread saturation above 8k-10k
feet. Drier air below and a fast-moving system will keep QPF
low. Breezy late Thursday night into Friday with gusts up to 25
mph inland, up to 30 mph along the coast.

Cooler on Saturday and Sunday as high pressure behind the front
dives southward toward the Gulf Coast. Very dry with dry air
advection and a deep layer of westerly winds over the weekend.
Temperatures fall, but only slightly, so minimum RH each day
will be in the 25-35% range. Gusts up to 20 mph during the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. Quiet TAF period. Cirrus clouds finally offshore, but as
disturbance aloft approaches later today, should see some mid
level clouds around 12-15k ft and may become broken briefly
before clearing tonight. Very light winds out of the N-NW
through this morning will veer to the N-NE up to 5 to 10 kts by
noon and then may see E-NE winds after 19z. Winds should drop
off inland to calm by this evening but may hold up just a bit
out of the NE, especially at coastal terminals, but less than 5
kt for the most part.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely through Thursday. By late
Thursday into Friday, a frontal system finally brings some
rain, which brings the first threat of sub-VFR. VFR returns late
Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... High pressure stretching across the east
coast will maintain a northerly wind flow, mainly between 10 to
15 kts with gusts up around 20 kts. The gradient tightens a bit
as low pressure passes well east over the Atlantic waters. A
shortwave will pass across the waters after midnight tonight
into early Tues morning. This could help to kick winds and seas
up a bit, but overall expect expect sub-advisory conditions with
a few gusts to 25 kts or a 6 fter in the outer waters possible
into Tues morning. Overall, expect seas 2 to 3 ft and winds to
bump up a little overnight into early Tues.

Tuesday through Friday... Combination of low pressure offshore
and high pressure to our north will maintain breezy northerly
winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Near SCA conditions are expected
with gusts to 20 knots and choppy wind wave seas 3-4 feet. A
brief period of light winds on Thursday will quickly turn SW and
increase ahead of a cold front. A sharp pressure gradient late
Thursday into Friday will likely prompt a SCA. The front exits
the region Friday evening and conditions begin to gradually
improve into the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/21


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