Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 291748
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air moves in behind a cold front as it pushes offshore
this morning. High pressure will build in from the north today,
but low pressure developing just to our south will spread
clouds and rain chances back across the area for Friday into
Saturday morning. Dry high pressure should then build in for
early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Cirrus of varying thickness continues to be affect forecast
highs, particularly near the NC coast where cloud cover is
thinnest. Very dry air continues to keep RH across much of the
area in the low 20% range. This will continue through the
afternoon as dry air aloft mixes to the surface. Along the
coast developing onshore flow will lead to slowly increasing RH.
Minimal adjustments needed to current forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry air advection behind a cold front has brought dew points
into the lower 20s and upper teens across the area. Model
guidance thus far has been unable to produce low enough dew
points to account for this drastic air mass change. In some
cases modeled dew points have been 10 degrees too high.

Given this poor initialization, many areas have been manually
edited with a starting point of NBM10 and the hi-res HRRR. BL RH
guidance for this morning and afternoon has portions of the
area mixing into the teens for minimum RH. This appears to be a
good representation of our mixing potential with upper level
cloud cover keeping things more uniform across the region.
Dewpoints are likely to be the main forecast challenge for the
day as guidance struggles with exceptional afternoon mixing.
Onshore flow late this afternoon will produce a rapid increase
in dew points and associated RH.

Mixing following the cold front, which is now offshore, has
allowed gusts to remain above 20-25 mph. For a brief period this
morning, gusts may increase, especially near the coast. Fast
moving high pressure will traverse NC and southern VA this
afternoon, bringing light onshore flow and reprieve from the
gusty winds.

A combination of the upper trough and high pressure will bring
cooler weather today. Upper level cloud cover will block the
majority of warming sunshine as highs peak in the upper 50s. A
peek of sun during the early afternoon across the northern tier
could push one or two spots to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Previous forecast remains on track for the Short Term period,
with sfc high pressure sliding off the Delmarva coast and rain
moving in from SW to NE through the day as low-level WAA and
isentropic lift overspread the area. Moderate to at times heavy
rain possible near the coast as a coastal trough nudges in as
well. The highest chances for rain are Friday night in
association with the best moisture feed over the area, before
drier air moves into the region and a developing weak sfc low
pushes off to the NE allowing for a drying trend into Saturday.
Temps about 10 degrees warmer on Saturday than Friday, with
highs 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure ridges in from the north early next week
allowing for dry weather, persistent NE flow, and partly to
mostly clouds skies. Temps remain slightly above normal, with
highs around 70 and morning lows averaging in the low 50s.
Chances for rain then increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the
next mid-level trough associated with southern stream energy and
developing sfc low approach the area. Guidance in fairly good
agreement on the timing of this system, with PoPs at 50% on
Wednesday, and moderate to heavy rain again possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northeast winds continue to decrease with very dry air in place.
Cirrus will remain a fixture with clouds gradually thickening
and bases lowering overnight. MVFR conditions will develop from
south to north Friday morning with potential for IFR at SC
terminals 16Z-18Z. Chances for IFR increase significantly after
18Z.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. There is also a moderate
potential that conditions could slip into the IFR category,
mainly due to ceilings during the same time.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Cold air advection will extend gusty winds
through midday. High pressure north of the area will slide
offshore pushing winds onshore this evening. Overnight, onshore
flow increases in response to a developing coastal trough.
Expect winds around 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. SCA
conditions will be marginal at this time, an advisory may be
needed. Seas improve throughout today from 3-5 feet to 2-3 this
evening. Increasing NE flow will see an increase of wind-driven
seas.

Friday through Monday...Hazardous marine conditions continue
late this week as persistent onshore flow yields SCA-level seas
and gusts close to 25 kt Friday into Friday night. Will hold off
on any headlines for now with a current SCA already in effect
for today. Conditions then gradually improve this weekend into
early next week as sfc high pressure builds into the area
following a weak sfc low pushing off to the NE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MAS/21


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.