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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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744 FXUS62 KILM 241054 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 654 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will continue through the remainder of the week as southerly winds bring tropical moisture northward. A cold front could move through the area Saturday, bringing unseasonably comfortable temperatures and humidity in for early next week. && .UPDATE... No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Broad southwesterly flow continues on Wednesday with deep moisture present across the central and eastern Carolinas. A similar forecast as previous days. Morning convection likely to be near the coast and may impact a few coastal communities. As the weak sea breeze develops, isolated showers and storms should flourish and gradually push westward through the afternoon. Outflows from the east and initiation along the Piedmont trough should eventually lead to scattered thunderstorms inland. Parallel flow aloft will again bring the threat of heavy rain and localized flooding where training storms develop. Clouds and precip will keep highs nearly the same as yesterday: upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Shower chances shift to the coast late tonight in persistent onshore flow. Hard to pinpoint where the convergence band will be located around and after midnight, but communities in extreme southeastern North Carolina will have the best chance of a few isolated showers. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Our flow aloft will turn more westerly Thursday into Friday as a shortwave moves from the Great Lakes across New England. This will do little to stem the flow of mid level moisture as our source region at 850 and 700 mb just shifts from the eastern Gulf to the western Gulf. The surface flow should remain firmly from the south around Bermuda High Pressure offshore. Like we`ve seen the past few days, this should remain a very wet pattern with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Precipitable water values in the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range, a deep warm cloud layer, and wind profiles favoring convective lines and occasional backbuilding all mean heavy rain and flooding will remain possible, particularly given the increasing list of locations that have picked up 6+ inches of rain over the past few days. Coastal showers and thunderstorms are expected to start the day Thursday. This activity will tend to redevelop inland during the afternoon as the coast clears out behind the seabreeze front. Showers and thunderstorms may continue area-wide Thursday night into Friday as the veering flow aloft steers a stream of impulses across the area. Forecast PoPs range from 60-90 percent each 12-hr period Thursday through Friday with an additional 2-4 inches of rain possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday morning a cold front will advance southward and should move through the eastern Carolinas. Convergence along the front and a still moist and unstable airmass should maintain some risk for showers and thunderstorms, particularly across South Carolina. The mid levels will begin to dry out from north to south and heavy rain will become less of a threat with time. It`s difficult to imagine now, but a true airmass change appears to occur this weekend. Surface dewpoints look like they will fall below 70 for what seems like the first time in forever. Mid level moisture should diminish even more strongly and precipitable water values could fall to near 1 inch, well below climatological norms for late July. I`ve reduced forecast PoPs even lower than during last night`s forecast and it looks like dry weather will occur Sunday and Monday. Forecast lows Saturday night and Sunday night are below 70 degrees away from the coast, leading to uncharacteristically comfortable late July weather conditions. By Tuesday, Bermuda High Pressure should become the dominant feature on the weather map. Southeasterly winds should lead to increasing dewpoints and deep layer moisture, and scattered showers and t-storms may again become possible. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dissipating convection near the coast will push offshore as southerly flow becomes re-established across the area. Patchy MVFR possible along the coast this morning before the sea breeze pushes inland during the early afternoon. A few isolated showers or storms will be possible, primarily over southeastern NC. Another day of scattered convection likely inland. Scattered storms begin to develop during the mid and late afternoon before outflows prompt additional development. Have included the potential for a persistent band of convection this evening similar to previous days. Confidence is low that this will directly impact the terminals, but there is potential for IFR/LIFR in convection. Localized flooding from heavy rain is possible. Low clouds possible thereafter. Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...South winds at 10-15 knots during the day weaken slightly and become southwesterly overnight. Gusts up to 20 knots during the day as a weak sea breeze develops. SE swell continues at 2-3 feet at 9 seconds. Convective minimum this afternoon should precede the development of isolated to scattered storms tonight, primarily after midnight. Thursday through Sunday Night...Bermuda High Pressure offshore will maintain a south-southwesterly wind across the Carolinas through Friday night. The source region for this incoming airmass is the northern Caribbean islands and the Bahamas, so plenty of moisture will continue streaming across the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the coastal waters Thursday morning, diminishing in coverage Thursday afternoon and evening as activity shifts inland. Activity should redevelop offshore again late Thursday night leading to more widespread showers and storms for Friday. A cold front will approach from the north late Friday night into Saturday morning, gradually bleeding drier air in from the northeast. This should lead to dry weather Saturday night into Sunday with no appreciable risk for showers and thunderstorms. The primary wave group Thursday through Sunday should be the southeasterly Bermuda swell averaging 2-3 feet every 9 seconds. On top of this will be short period wind chop from southerly winds Thursday, then from northeasterly winds Saturday night into Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday evening for NCZ087. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday evening for SCZ017-023-024-032. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...21 MARINE...TRA/21