846
FXUS62 KILM 081753
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
153 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into this
evening. Unsettled weather arrives Wednesday with best storm
chances Thursday and Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for
the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a
fixture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region will remain near or under the influence of a mid-level
ridge axis extending westward out of the Atlantic Ocean through the
period with light winds <20 kts through most of the troposphere up
until jet stream level (>30 kft). Typical summertime moisture
levels, with precipitable water values around to slightly above 2",
will remain in place with steady south-southwest winds around
Bermuda high pressure in the lower atmosphere. For the remainder of
today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the sea breeze in South Carolina and inland from
coast around/west of the I-95 corridor. Subsidence near the coast
courtesy of the ridge should largely suppress activity in the
coastal Cape Fear region, although an isolated shower cannot be
ruled out. Any daytime convection should dissipate this evening with
this loss of heating, leaving another warm and muggy night with lows
in the mid-upper 70s and partly cloudy skies.

On Wednesday, a mid-level trough tracking across the Ohio Valley
will begin to lower heights over the Carolinas. With the ridge axis
holding in place, though, model soundings show that at least a weak
subsidence inversion will be maintained, especially with eastward
extent. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are more likely to
occur near/west of I-95, although guidance suggests these storms
should largely develop over the Piedmont before drifting eastward.
Weak flow through the atmosphere will mean slow-moving storms
producing heavy rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding where
multiple storms pass over the same area or become stationary as
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely in the stronger storms. In
addition, an isolated severe storm may occur and produce strong to
locally damaging wind gusts, but this potential is very low.

High temps should end up a little lower tomorrow than today due to
greater cloud cover developing during the afternoon, and these lower
temps should preclude most areas from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria of 105F, despite dew points in the mid-upper 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will persist and or increase as
the usual factors...subtle mid level troughing...the Piedmont/Inland
Trough along with the sea breeze combine in tandem with significant
pw values in place. These factors warrant likely to even categorical
pops at times mainly during the afternoon and evening hours trailing
off overnight. Temperatures will be steady state with highs in the
lower 90s and overnight lows in the middle to perhaps even upper 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended period has trended a little drier from a
convective coverage standpoint as mid level ridging appears to
build in more at times. Saturday should see the least convection
with a subtle increase in pops once again late in the weekend
into early next week. With higher dewpoints essentially locked
in across the area heat related headlines...probably more
confined to advisory criteria appear to be fair game each day.


&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A diurnal cumulus field is underway with convection firing in South
Carolina. Expect these cumulus to remain just above MVFR levels
through this evening, although if a storm happens to move over a
terminal, MVFR cigs are possible, along with vis briefly dipping to
IFR or LIFR levels in heavy rain. The chance for convection
impacting a terminal is limited, but high enough to include a PROB30
group for inland terminals only and too low to mention at the coast.
Tonight, steady south winds should prevent mist/fog formation,
although very low stratus will be possible once again at the inland
terminals as well as at the Myrtles. However, confidence is too low
at this time to mention and may be impacted by how extensive showers
and storms become by late today. Otherwise, any early morning
stratus should burn off within a few hours of sunrise depending on
its extent, and another diurnal cumulus field will develop near the
end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime convection and potential early morning
fog/stratus.


&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Steady south winds will prevail around broad
Bermuda high pressure over the central Atlantic. Waves of 2-3 ft
will stem from a combination of 2-3 ft wind waves and 1-2 ft
southeasterly swell with a period of 8-9 sec.


Wednesday Night through Sunday...
Summertime pattern in full force for the marine community
through the period. Outside of some sea breeze accelerations and
distorted wind fields from convection south to southwest winds of 10-
15 knots will prevail. There are some indications winds could be
even lighter or concentrated more toward the lower end of the range
next week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

 &&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/ABW