Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 211909
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase but not substantially on Thursday ahead
of a very weak cold front. Behind the boundary, temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm through Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Monday night, bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms, followed by seasonable temperatures for
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad 1024mb surface high pressure
across the Southeast. Aloft, the Carolinas are caught in between a
deep trough just offshore, and a strong ridge just to the west. The
center of the upper low is currently located just offshore of New
England right now, and will be slowly dropping southward through
this period, situating itself northeast of the DelMarVa region by
Wednesday evening. This causes the upper ridge to the west to
retrograde slightly back towards the lower Plains region. Though
upper heights fall slightly as a result, surface high pressure
creeps closer to the coastal Carolinas. Associated subsidence clears
out the upper cloud cover we`ve seen today, allowing for a very
noticeable increase in high temperatures. Expecting low-to-mid 90s
near the coast by Wednesday afternoon, with thermometers possibly
flirting with triple digits near the SC Pee Dee region.

Winds become more light and variable tonight, before becoming more
WSW by Wednesday morning. Skies clear late tonight, and can`t rule
out some patchy fog inland, which should quickly mix out after
sunrise. Lows tonight in the mid 60s inland, lingering near 70 at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 mb low will linger off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday
night before lifting to the NE Thu-Thu night. The surface pattern
will be rather complex. Wednesday evening, the main cold front will
be on the west side of the Appalachians, with a prefrontal trough
extending NE-SW across the Carolina Piedmont and another surface
trough extending from coastal VA SSE to off Cape Hatteras. The
pressure field will be generally weak, so winds should remain
relative light. The direction will vary quite a bit during this
period as NW flow aloft pushes these fronts across the area. At this
time, it appears that the main front will push through late Thursday
afternoon or early evening. Based on that timing, high temps should
reach the mid/upper 90s inland, to around 90s at the beaches, and
this would yield heat indices reaching the lower 100s across the Pee
Dee and I-95 corridor. With the absence of any apparent strong
dynamics, will keep PoPs generally in the 30-40% range along and
ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front will be south of the area Friday morning. 500 mb heights will
rise as a mid-level trough off New England lifts, and a ridge builds
across the area from the Gulf Coast states through the weekend. A
decent shortwave will cross the Mid-Atlantic early next week,
pushing a surface front and accompanying band of showers and
thunderstorms through the forecast area Monday-Monday night. High
temps each day will generally range from upper 80s beaches to
low/mid 90s inland, with lows with a degree or two of 70. Based on
expected timing of fropa early next week, cooler air will filter in
on Tuesday, with seasonable highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Variable middle, but mostly
high clouds this afternoon and evening. Winds becoming ESE-SE
later this afternoon at 6-11kts, highest by the coast, before
becoming more light and variable by late in the evening.

Confidence is shaky about patchy fog before sunrise Wednesday
morning, but it looks like KFLO and KLBT run the greatest risk
at recording some brief visibilities at 6SM. Fog, if any,
quickly mixes out after sunrise. Winds become more WSW towards
the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the extended period except for a
periodic MVFR from showers associated with the passage of a
weak cold front Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Southerly winds at 5-10kts become more
southwesterly tonight. Pressure gradient starts to tighten by
Wednesday afternoon, increasing winds to 15-20kts. Gusts may
occasionally kick up to near or just above 25kts at times, but it`s
not consistent enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory at this time
(though this may need monitoring). Seas at 1-2ft continue through
tonight and Wednesday morning, quickly pulsing up to 2-4ft by the
afternoon, as a southerly swell at 4-5 seconds becomes more
apparent.

Wednesday night through Sunday...A surface front is expected to push
across the waters from north to south late Wednesday night,
accompanied by a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms. Gusts
in SW winds ahead of the front will approach 25 kt. Surface high
pressure will build across the Mid-Atlantic behind the front, and
push off the DelMarVa peninsula Friday. This will result in an
onshore wind trajectory, which will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/CRM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.