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000
FXUS62 KILM 191053
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable high pressure will build in through Thursday.
Rain and wind will become more likely Friday into this weekend
as an area of low pressure develops to our south.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet weather continues today. Temperatures possibly a degree or
two higher than yesterday. Light winds will give way to an
afternoon sea breeze along the coast. This may generate a few
cumulus, but have no other impact. Below normal temperatures
expected again overnight with lows in the upper 50s and lower
60s under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Benign weather continues this period as broad sfc high pressure
off to the north slides offshore, with winds shifting from the
north to east but remaining light. A wave of low pressure starts
developing off to the south by midweek, but there`s plenty of
dry air in place over the local area without any forcing
mechanisms. Temps close to normal for late Sep...highs in the
low/mid 80s with lows in the upr 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not a whole lot of change for the long term, with rain chances
still expected to ramp up through the late week period as sfc
low pressure develops just off to the south in association with
an upr-level cutoff low. The low could acquire some subtropical
characteristics as it moves northward. The rain may be moderate
to heavy at times Fri into Sat especially near the coast. In
addition, expect breezy NE winds, highest at the coast where a
High Surf Advisory is possible north of Cape Fear by Fri. Swells
from Hurricane Nigel will also contribute to a dangerous rip
current potential starting Thu, also mainly north of Cape Fear.
With the cloud cover and high rain chances, temps will run a bit
lower than climo...highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with light winds becoming easterly along the coast due to
an afternoon sea breeze. VFR tonight.

Extended Outlook... VFR. There is a low potential for MVFR
clouds and visibility to develop Friday as low pressure spreads
rain and clouds onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure maintains dry weather and light
winds today. Seas generally 1-2 feet. Winds could increase to
10 knots along the coast with seas increasing to around 2 feet
during the afternoon and latter daylight hours.

Wednesday Through Saturday...One more day of benign marine
conditions Wed before winds and waves greatly ramp up Thu and
Fri as sfc low pressure develops off to the south. Regardless of
the exact track and strength of the low, both of which there
remains a lot of uncertainty over, expect moderate to strong
SCA-level winds by Thu night/Fri, with seas increasing to 8-10
ft out 20 nm. Occasional gusts to gale force possible as well.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21