Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050018
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
818 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid with thunderstorms possible today. Shower
chances continue on Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will
eventually stall south of the area. Seasonable conditions with a
slight chance of showers expected late Thursday. High pressure
will follow Friday through the upcoming weekend, supplying cool
and quiet weather conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled, as any
lingering thunderstorms tonight are not expected to be severe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows the 1026mb Bermuda high well
offshore, with a weak Piedmont trough in place much closer to
home. Latest radar imagery shows a few showers popping up in
parts of the Cape Fear region, thanks to some lift from the
seabreeze. Atmosphere is very ripe at the moment, with
2000-2500J/kg SBCAPE and no cap in place, per the SPC
mesoanalysis. A quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) ahead of a
cold front has been pushing through parts of north Georgia and
upstate South Carolina, and will continue to move east through
this evening. Aforementioned instability combined with bulk
shear near 40kts has prompted the SPC to issue a "Slight Risk"
(threat level 2/5) of severe weather for parts of Darlington,
Florence, Marlboro, and Williamsburg Counties through tonight.
The rest of the area remains in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level
1/5) for severe weather, with roughly half the speed in bulk
shear.

Storms should start to enter the western portions of the area
by 6-7 PM EDT. Instability will start to wane due to the sun
setting, and latest high-resolution models show most of the
convection fizzling out by the time it reaches the coast. Still,
the atmosphere remains juiced up enough where some storms could
reach the coast by the late evening and overnight hours. Cannot
rule out some strong to severe storms here, as the LLJ peaks
over the coast during this time. The main concerns include
straight line damaging winds and small hail.

Wednesday, broad mid-to-upper trough moves through, with the
jet max just north of the area. This elevated wind activity
introduces a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters. Mid
levels dry out considerably at this point, which should keep the
rain chances and convection lower than they have been in recent
days, though moisture still lingers at the lower levels and SPC
keeps the area in a "Marginal Risk" for good measure. Expect
mostly sunshine again with scattered storms possibly forming
later in the day. Cold front moves through Wednesday evening,
allowing low temperatures to be about 10 degrees cooler than the
night before. Still, all temperatures remain well above normal
throughout the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Stalled front well offshore and to the south Thursday morning.
Strong mid level subsidence will keep area dry during the day
and cap afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds. Much cooler temps
Thursday, though only slightly below normal, in the mid 70s due
to weak CAA. Strong upper trough approaches late Thursday,
leading to a weak low developing along stalled front near SE NC.
Low rain chances Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly
across SE NC where forcing and moisture will be higher, though
still meager QPF. Friday will be cool and breezy with exiting
low offshore and high pressure moving in from the west. Friday
night coolest temps in the forecast under clear skies and
weakening CAA, with lows in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry forecast for the weekend with negative vorticity advection
behind exiting upper trough and surface high pressure to the
south Saturday. Clear skies Saturday with near normal temps in
the upper 70s, with upper 50s Saturday night. High pressure
slides offshore Saturday night, with a pseudo warm front
lifting north Sunday morning too dry for pops. Decent warm up
Sunday with highs into low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather
forecasted for early next week as a series of upper level
impulses move across and a surface boundary slowly drops
southward across our area late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection is starting to diminish this evening and will
continue to do so with the loss of daytime heating. Still
included VCTS over the next few hours with some strong storms
moving in from the SW. Some patchy fog is possible toward
morning, particularly in places that had some decent rainfall,
but not likely enough to include in the TAFs attm.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with brief periodic MVFR/IFR
threat from convection late Wed ahead of a CFP. Possible MVFR
conditions again Thu into Fri due to a stalled front in the
vicinity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday Night...Winds remain out of the southwest
throughout the entire period, with sustained winds at or just
below 20kts, with occasional gusts to 25kts, particularly over
parts of the NC waters. This has prompted a Small Craft
Advisory, valid this evening through most of the period. Seas
remain at 3-4ft for the waters adjacent to Georgetown and Horry
Counties, SC. Meanwhile, 3- 4ft seas increase to 4-5ft with
occasional 6ft waves for the NC waters tonight. This should wane
by Thursday morning, where seas become 3ft, and drop even more
to 2-3ft by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Sunday...NNE winds will be weakening Thursday
morning with stalled front well offshore. Winds 10 kts or less
forecasted for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with
varied direction as a weak low develops along stalled front
before exiting to the northeast. Offshore winds 10-15 kts Friday
and Friday night before high pressure moves across to the south
and briefly weakens winds Saturday. High moves offshore late
Saturday, allowing return flow to develop into Sunday,
strengthening late Sunday. Seas around 2-3 ft for Thursday
through Sunday, with brief lowering Saturday and increasing late
Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...MAS/43
MARINE...IGB/VAO


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