Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250007
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
807 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will provide a
dry weekend with seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
reach the area on Tuesday bringing good chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The front will retreat northward Wednesday, with
scattered thunderstorms possible through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight and
through the upcoming weekend. A mid-level ridge will maintain a
subsidence inversion over the area and limit any showers and
thunderstorms in addition to the dry air aloft and near the surface.
NE and E winds overnight become calm by tomorrow morning. There is a
small chance of patchy fog overnight and especially near water
bodies. Dry and warm again on Saturday with mostly clear skies
outside of cumulus along the sea breeze. Highs in the upper 80s
along the coast and in southeastern NC; lower 90s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlantic
coast plus mid and upper level high pressure off to our west
will maintain a dry weather pattern across the Carolinas this
weekend. Precipitable water values should slide to slightly less
than 1 inch which is below the 10th percentile for late June.
Forecast vertical profiles show a pronounced subsidence
inversion in place which should limit cloud cover to mainly just
some flat daytime cumulus. Model consensus looks good for
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level ridge to our west will begin to weaken Monday,
beaten down by a healthy shortwave trough moving across the
Great Lakes. While there are minor timing differences still to
work out with the models, it appears the subsidence inversion
may weaken enough by late Monday afternoon or Monday evening for
showers and t-storms to begin to fire up across the interior
portions of the Carolinas, working their way eastward overnight.

Accompanying the mid level decay of the subsidence inversion
will be a surface cold front, pushed southeastward by 1025 mb
high pressure across the Plains states. Precipitable water
values should rise to greater than 1.75 inches Tuesday along the
front. Forecast shower and t-storm chances have been increased
slightly from the previous forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night
as the front stalls near the coast. By Wednesday will boundary
should begin to retreat north, but leaving a humid and unstable
airmass in its wake. Scattered showers and t-storms should
continue Wednesday into Thursday, but may become less numerous
by Friday as mid level ridging off the Southeast coast feeds
drier and warmer conditions in aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period as high pressure builds in.
Scattered VFR cumulus is expected inland during the afternoon
with better coverage near the eastward-propagating seabreeze.
Coastal terminals will maintain clear skies throughout the
period.

Have a couple question marks surrounding fog before sunrise
Saturday morning. Ultimately think that there`s just not enough
low-level moisture to cause visibility issues in ground fog.
KFLO and KLBT have the greatest risk at capturing some brief
MVFR visibilities, but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Monday with possible MVFR
conditions by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...NE winds weaken as high pressure strengthens and
builds southwestward from the southern Delmarva region this
afternoon and overnight. Winds become easterly late this evening,
maintaining 10-15 knots in strength. Consistent onshore winds
develop early Saturday around 10-15 knots with a weak swell out of
the NE. Seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Light mainly easterly winds
over the weekend will veer southerly Monday as a cold front
begins to approach the Carolinas. The front will get close
enough to bring thunderstorm chances beginning Monday night, but
chances for storms will really increase on Tuesday as the front
stalls nearby. Wind directions may briefly become northeast
Tuesday or Tuesday night, but by Wednesday it appears the front
will begin to lift back to the north allowing southerly winds to
overspread the region.

A 2-foot 8-second easterly swell is expected to continue
through the weekend into next week. Local winds will
periodically raise a short period chop on top of that, but
thunderstorms will likely become the largest marine weather
headache accompanying the front on Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...TRA/21


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