


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
913 FXUS62 KILM 112145 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 545 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue through this weekend and into next week with little change in the overall weather pattern. && .UPDATE... Updated to lower chc of convection to mainly isolated associated with sea breeze. Deep westerly flow and mid level ridging helping to suppress convective activity with only a slight chc into this evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level cloud cover has hindered destabilization today (esp inland). That plus the lack of yesterday`s forcing for ascent from a shortwave and thunderstorm coverage should be lowered back to normal today, if not a bit lower. Even the oft enthusiastic HRRR only has limited coverage of storms and mainly only along the seabreeze. Not quite ready to go dry along I-95 but will show a later introduction of POPs due the aforementioned cloud cover and stability. After a normal diurnal end of any convection tonight will be rain-free and unseasonably mild to the tune of about 5 degrees. Saturday is looking like a normal afternoon with respect to convection timing and location as we should have a more sunny start to aid in destabilization. The seabreeze will be the main contributor but a few mesoscale boundaries should also be lurking inland. The added sunshine will bring a warmer afternoon with low 90s common away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Not a whole lot of change for the second half of the weekend with weak flow aloft, Bermuda high pressure well offshore, and a thermal trough inland. Scattered aftn/evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday will be focused along the sea breeze/thermal trough and outflow boundaries, before diminishing in coverage following the loss of daytime heating. Temps Sunday almost exactly the same as Saturday, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices maxing out mostly in the 100-104 degree range, just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term period will feature frequent chances for rain and near to slightly below normal temps for mid July. PoPs most days are a bit higher than this weekend`s PoPs...in the likely range, but we still undercut guidance a bit by blending in climatology, as there is no organized forcing mechanism aloft outside of transient shortwave troughs to warrant really high PoPs. Will better nail down the timing as we get closer to the week. After near normal highs on Monday, temps may only make it to the upr 80s Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR generally expected. Thunderstorms today will have nowhere near the coverage as yesterday. Light southwesterly breeze should be enough to prevent fog development tonight (unless thunderstorms over-perform). Once again tomorrow thunderstorm coverage will only introduce minor and short-lived restrictions at any given terminal. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Southwesterly winds continue through the period with high pressure anchored offshore. Seas around 3 ft will contain both wind wave and swell components as usual in such a setup. Overland troughiness expands Saturday for a possible 5kt loss of wind speed. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions continue as Bermuda high pressure resides well offshore. Winds average out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, but actually in the 5-10 kt range much of the time. Seas mainly 2-3 ft, a combo of southerly wind wave and 7-9 second SE swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MAS/MBB