Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 231915
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build in from the
north through Thursday with below normal temperatures. The
lingering front offshore will move inland on Friday with
increasing warmth and chances of showers or thunderstorms
increasing through the weekend. Typical summertime pattern in
store for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough base continues to push offshore with the
associated surface cold front and precipitation from 24 hours
ago. As dry high pressure moves into the Carolinas, little to no
precipitation chances are expected for the next 24 hours with
less humidity as dew points drop into the mid 50s and lower 60s.
The front offshore drifts closer to the coast Thursday night
that could bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
for coastal communities. High temperatures will range below
normal across the area for late June in the low to mid 80s. Low
temperatures tonight and Thursday night will also be below
normal in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging inland Friday morning will break down quickly as
offshore front makes its way inland. Will see increase in clouds
and showers Friday. There may be limited instability with cloud
cover and so thunderstorms could be widely scattered. No severe
weather or flooding threats expected. Temps will be tempered by
insolation and highs are forecasted around 85 degrees Friday.
Low to mid level clouds expected to hang around through Saturday
as decent moisture remains across the southeast coast. Chance
of thunderstorms Saturday. Highs Saturday slightly higher than
Friday, with lows Friday and Saturday night around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Typical summertime weather in store for Sunday through mid week
as weather pattern remains stagnant over the area. Onshore low
level flow will provide enough moisture for afternoon precip
chances, particularly along sea breeze. High pressure offshore
to the northeast through Monday will slowly shift southward to
east of the area by midweek, veering winds to more southerly on
Wednesday. Temps near normal with highs each day around 90 and
min temps near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unseasonably cool tonight with light northeast flow. No fog
expected. Thursday, increasing high clouds at the end of the
forecast period with continued northeast flow.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Friday morning. Convective
showers and thunderstorms may return Friday through Sunday as
the front moves back onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Thursday Night...As front lingers over the
coastal waters, a small craft advisory continues for the rest of
the day with gusts up to 25 kts and seas as high as 6 feet.
Conditions improve later tonight through Thursday night with
seas between 2 and 4 feet from the ESE between 8 and 14 seconds
and from the south around 6 seconds. As a result of the high
swell energy from distant storms, rough waves are likely for
area beaches, especially the east facing ones.

Friday through Monday...Steady weather pattern in store for
Friday through early next week with onshore SE winds around
10-15 kts and seas 3-4 ft each day and night. Friday and
Saturday are expected to be partly to mostly cloudy, with
highest chance of storms early Friday as offshore front moves
inland. Seas will be dominated by a 7 sec SE wind wave with a
weak long period SE swell mixed in Friday through Saturday
night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/VAO


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