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000
FXUS62 KILM 101726
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1225 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds through
tonight. High pressure will then build in for most of the week
bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances could increase
this weekend due to a possible storm system to the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Only made a few tweaks to reflect latest conditions. Still
expecting on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very active near-term period is in store as a sharpening mid-upper
trough pivots across the area tonight. Warm/moist advection and
convergence associated with a coastal trough will bring passing
showers and possibly a thunderstorm to areas mainly near and
north of Cape Fear for much of the day and through this evening
until a band of pre-frontal convection pushes through tonight.
Further inland, a lack of forcing will preclude much shower
activity through the morning and midday timeframe. During the
afternoon and going through the evening, a pre-frontal
convergence zone or two will bring increasing shower coverage
along with a low chance for thunderstorms, a few of which could
produce locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. The
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted mainly the Cape Fear
region in a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather,
with the remainder of the region in a Marginal risk (level 1 out
of 5) as of early this morning. These areas may be refined
through the day as the environment evolves. Overall, we think
the severe storm risk will remain limited given the low-level
stabilization due to southerly winds off the cool Atlantic
Ocean.

Going into the first half of the night, a band of convection just
ahead of the front in tandem with a strong low-level jet will likely
bring a period of gusty winds of 40-50 mph. In addition, the
potential will exist for strong to locally damaging wind gusts
of at least 60 mph and possibly a tornado if a mesovortex
and/or bow echo develops within the pre-frontal band of
convection. The gusty winds will subside as the front and its
associated rain tracks east. Unseasonably warm conditions will
precede this front, with highs expected to reach the lower 70s,
and some mid-70s possible inland, where somewhat more sunshine
is expected. Behind the front, strong cold/dry advection will
knock temps back into the low 40s, with upper 30s possible in
the far western zones near and west of I-95. Skies should
largely clear out by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Confidence: Moderate to High

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool, dry surface high pressure will prevail as the deep
upper trough lifts off to the northeast and becomes replaced by more
zonal flow. Highs should mainly be in the lower to mid 50s each day
with lows generally in the 20s/30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Confidence: Moderate to High through Friday; Low to Moderate
starting Friday night

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool and dry surface high pressure will prevail through at
least Friday. A trough could develop offshore Friday night as well
as low pressure farther to the south which could bring some showers
back to the area but confidence is lower regarding these systems.
Highs should mostly below normal in the 50s until Saturday when
there is a better chance of getting back to normal in the lower
60s. Low temps should stay below normal, generally in the
20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active TAF period with increasing shower coverage through the
afternoon bringing temporary MVFR to possibly IFR cigs/vis at times
to the coastal terminals. Frontal band of heavy showers and gusty
winds will affect the inland terminals this evening with a sharp
wind shift and IFR to potentially LIFR cigs and vis accompanying the
front. This band will approach the coastal sites around midnight,
bringing similarly poor vis/cigs, and a brief period of SSWly LLWS
as a strengthening low-level jet passes overhead. Rapid improvement
will sweep from west to east behind the front with conditions
returning to VFR inland by 12Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR predominantly expected as high pressure
dominates through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Deteriorating marine conditions are in store
as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the
front, a coastal trough will continue to produce shower activity
over the coastal waters through the day. Winds of 15-20 kts are
expected outside of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms. A
period of gale-force wind gusts are expected to accompany the
arrival and passage of the cold front during the couple hours on
either side of midnight with a sharp wind shift to westerly
taking place as well. A Gale Warning has been raised to account
for this. Waves will rise through the day and peak in the 6-9 ft
range just ahead of the cold front , coming from the south with
a period of 7-8 sec. After winds turn westerly, seas will
gradually subside through the remainder of the night, although
they should still be in the 4-7 ft range by sunrise on Monday.

Monday through Thursday: Moderate to high confidence this period.
Hazardous conditions are expected into Monday behind a strong cold
front. Small Craft Advisory conditions should end later in the
morning or in the early afternoon. Building high pressure will then
bring fairly benign marine conditions through Wednesday before it
strengthens and causes a tighter pressure gradient starting
Wednesday night. The persistent N/NE winds will also lead to
building seas and another Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent and strengthening southerly flow ahead of a strong cold
front will lead to a considerable tidal anomaly on the Cape Fear
River at downtown Wilmington. At this time, it appears the peak
surge should occur during the low tide cycle around 07 UTC tonight.
However, as the tidal anomaly grows, minor flooding may occur around
the time of high tide this evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...