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000
FXUS62 KILM 071424
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
924 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week
along with plenty of daily sunshine. Unseasonably cool
temperatures to start the week will reach near normal by
Tue and continue to warm to above normal through the mid to
late week period.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major categorical changes to the weather elements. Just some
tweaking, applying current obs and trends and then meshing them
to the overall forecast scheme.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will move farther away from the Southeast coast today
as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley
shifts slowly eastward. A sharp upper level impulse will dive
southeast over the Carolina coast this afternoon with 500 mb temps
expected to fall as low as -30C. Even with dewpoints in the teens
inland and 20s near the coast, lapse rates are sufficiently steep
for a few cumulus to develop at the top of the deep daytime mixed
layer, particularly across the Cape Fear area. Several of the
models even develop some showers within a zone of 100-200 J/kg
CAPE well east of the Pender County coastline. Dry weather is
expected for us today with highs reaching 55-58 degrees.

Clear skies and light winds should create an unseasonably chilly
night with lows likely falling below freezing for all but the
beaches. We`re still 1-4 weeks away from the average date of the
last spring freeze, so no freeze warnings will be issued. Clear
skies are expected on Monday as the high builds across the area
during the afternoon. The airmass should moderate on Monday with
highs 56-61, coolest at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead Monday night for good radiational cooling
down into the mid 30s. Though wind remains very light on Tuesday
it does manage to shift to the south for a seasonable afternoon
with highs in the mid 60s. This will hold true Tuesday night as
well as high pressure shifts off the coast but not by much.
Very dry air and zonal mid level flow will keep rain chances at
zero. Some of the area rivers are forecast to fall below flood
stage this period while other should do so during the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves further offshore on Wednesday and some weak
warm advection develops pushing afternoon temperatures close to
70, some 5-ish degrees above climatology. We should then add a
few degrees to those numbers by Thursday as a mid level ridge
over the GOMEX starts to poke into the Carolinas. As this ridge
builds slowly Friday into Saturday mid 70s will be commonplace
and nighttime lows will be on the rise as surface dewpoints
increase. There remains no chances of rain in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions continue. Clear skies, with exception of
passing mid- clouds across the Cape Fear region late afternoon.
North winds around 10 kts today become calm tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Low pressure will move farther away from the
East Coast today as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Northerly winds 10-15 knots should prevail today and tonight,
finally diminishing Monday as the high reaches the eastern
Carolinas during the afternoon. Spectral wave data from the
Frying Pan Shoals buoy (41013) and the nearshore Wrightsville
Beach CORMP buoy (41110) show the presence of a 9-second swell
that is not being picked up by the Wavewatch or NWPS models.
I`ve manually adjusted wave height forecasts upward today
through Monday to account for this apparent backswell emanating
from the low/cold front combo 400-700 miles off the Southeast
Coast.

Monday night through Thursday...Winds about as light as they
get Monday night into early Tuesday due to high pressure
building overhead. In the absence of swell energy this will mean
waves capped at 2 ft. Later Tuesday as it begins to move
offshore a south to southwesterly flow will come to dominate
while seas remain unchanged since wind speeds remain so minimal.
South winds will remain Wednesday into Thursday and only in the
5-10kt range (though the sea breeze will be gusty at times)
eventually leading to 3 ft seas returning late in the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...DCH/TRA/MBB