Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
000
FXUS62 KILM 181030
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area this morning
followed by breezy conditions and below normal temperatures
thru Tue night. Milder temps and continued dry conditions
to occur thru the mid-week period. Rain chances return Fri
thru Sat as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the
Southeast States Atlantic coast.
&&
.UPDATE...
Front is sitting just near northern Marlboro county and should
continue through the area early this morning. Increased wind
speeds slightly for this afternoon into this evening based on
how winds are this morning. Updated aviation discussion below.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front is currently pushing into the far inland portions
of our CWA, outrunning the trough aloft. Winds will start to
come around to the west and then the northwest with its passage.
The front will be offshore by the morning, dry air filtering in
gradually. Enough moisture should hang on in the column through
the day for there to be a mix of clouds and sun through the
day. A decent breeze should linger through the day so went a bit
milder on highs, low to mid 60s. Similarly went lower on the
dewpoints due to decent mixing. Increased fire danger might be
possible as aftn RH values dip below 30 percent with gusts up to
20 mph.
The upper trough will be passing overhead tonight, a surge of
low and mid-level moisture ahead of it. SE NC could see some
brief, light showers late this evening with the passage of this
disturbance. NW winds will also increase at this time, gusting
around 25-30 mph. Lows will fall into the mid 30s, but with the
strong overnight breeze frost formation is unlikely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CAA will peak early Tue via various thickness schemes, followed
by the offshore movement of the 5H trof axis during Tue. NAA
followed by WAA by late Tue as 5H heights/1k-5h thicknesses
rise. Sfc pg remains tightened Tue thru Wed with breezy
conditions resulting, especially during daylight hrs both days.
The WAA Wed may push temps above 70 for highs. Otherwise, temps
well below normal Tue, rise to at or just above normal Wed thru
Wed night. Next dry CFP slated late Wed/Wed nite as flow drives
sfc ridging out of Central Canada to the Carolinas. At this
point, winds stay active enough to keep temps aoa 40 along with
no frost issues.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Thu thru Thu night, flow aloft basically NW that backs to
westerly. Under CAA initially that becomes neutral. Temps to
run at or slightly below normal. Skies generally cloud free
initially that will see high level moisture late Thu night from
the south.
Southern stream mid-level s/w trof to gain steam in the Gulf of
Mexico Fri. GFS indicates a full Gale/Storm off the Carolina
Coasts Fri night into Sat as the sfc low and mid-level s/w trof
lift NE-ward. The European on the other hand keeps it benign
early in the weekend, then closes/cutoffs the upper low off the
Carolina Coast late in the weekend with sfc Gale/Storm possible.
Overall, will have rain chances capped around 50% later Fri thru
Sat night with some low chance pops mainly at or off the coasts
Sun/Sun night. Have indicated mainly stratiform rains Fri into
Fri night with isolated thunder at and off the coasts late Fri
night into Sat as the low passes by, moving along an
offshore/coastal waters coastal trof that does not get pulled
inland but comes close to the immediate coast. Lot of questions
remain with this system especially with various model
continuity. Temps Fri thru Sun to remain at or below normal due
to clouds and pcpn.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. NW winds near 10 kts
will gradually become more westerly through today. A
disturbance moving over the area this evening into tonight will
bring gusty NW winds near 20-25 kts. Low chances for showers at
KILM at the same time but low confidence so will let the next
put them in if confidence is higher.
Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...NW winds 10-15 kts will decrease to near
10 kts this afternoon becoming SW once more ahead of another
disturbance. As this disturbance approaches through the evening
into the night, winds will reach SCA criteria with gusts up to
30 kts, becoming NW once more around midnight. Seas near 2 ft
will increase to 2-4 ft tonight with a strong NW wind wave.
Tuesday through Friday night...SCA thresholds will be ongoing
early Tue before temporarily dropping below during Tue as the
sfc pg relaxes slightly and a change from CAA to NAA occurs.
The sfc pg tightens Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next cold
front. With WAA, am suspect that SW-WSW winds may eclipse SCA
thresholds even when combined with the re-tightening of the sfc
pg. Nevertheless, potential is there to highlight the SCA
possibility. Dry CFP Wed night, followed by CAA and the sfc pg
relaxing during Thu. Look for wind shift to the N-NE Thu,
becoming E thruout with increasing speeds Fri. Coastal trof to
develop just offshore Fri, with E winds 15 to 20 kt within
coastal waters, and SE at SCA thresholds on the other side of
the trof. Will see SCA thresholds eclipsed by seas Fri/Fri
night. The seas will have a decent fetch for which to build upon
and as a result, will observe the hier seas just offshore bleed
into the coastal waters Fri/Fri night.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT
Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW