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000
FXUS62 KILM 051056
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
656 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue with a low to moderate
chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms today
through Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected this
weekend and into early next week with a low chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
HRRR is currently identifying and following the current
convection across mainly the ILM SC CWA. This activity is
slightly stronger than anticipated and may become SPS worthy at
times during this morning. Activity primarily developed along
and just east of the stalled frontal boundary across central SC.
An embedded mid-level s/w trof or vort has provided additional
forcing, with instability already in place east of the stalled
front. HRRR slowly dissipates this activity as it moves away
from the stalled front and into stable air which had not been
able to destabilize in time. Tstorm activity should pick up this
aftn but may be delayed until the convective debris cloud field
dissipates followed by the atm finally being able to
destabilize.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A stalled front will lie across the Central Carolinas during
this period. Forcing along this boundary will be enough for
convection to fire along it each aftn into the early evening.
Enough instability will be available early this morning and
again late tonight for isolated convection to develop. Throw in
a mid-level s/w trof this morning, and the result of more than
just isolated coverage. Expect the sea breeze boundary each day
to provide additional forcing for convection to break out
once the daytime destabilization process reaches convective
temps. Overall POPs from midday thru mid-evening today and again
Thu, will reach the mid chance range. The threat for convection
outside the "normal summer time" hours will depend on the
forcing from these mid-level s/w trofs, ie. like what`s now
occurring across the western portions of the ILM CWA. The
overnight convective debris clouds this morning and likely again
Thu morning, will initially delay the normal days insolation
process and delay the diurnally driven temp curve. But overall,
have indicated max temps at or slightly hier than what the
consensus MOS Guidance dictates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deep southwesterly flow will provide ample moisture ahead of a
lifting upper-level trough. Scattered thunderstorms are likely on
Thursday and may linger into the evening hours as weak
perturbations in the upper-level flow sustain elevated
convection after sunset. Some of the storms could be severe with
the wind profile showing a small amount of shear compared to a
typical August air mass. On Friday, scattered thunderstorms are
again likely with a weak shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic.
The main focus of shower activity is likely to be displaced to
the north, but still expect afternoon storms to develop and
continue into the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain near
normal during the day with the increase in humidity keeping
overnight temperatures slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Indications are that the upper-trough will become more zonal
and continue to move eastward this weekend. This will lead to
quieter weather and temperatures increasing to slightly above
normal. Expect typical afternoon storm coverage on Sunday and
into early next week. Large upper ridge over the desert
southwest will block any significant waves of energy for
organized or focused thunderstorms through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough combined with little convective inhibition has allowed some
convection to break out, affecting mainly the Myrtles this morning,
however any of our terminals could see a shower or storm this
morning. This afternoon, more of the same with convection becoming
fairly widespread. Light and variable winds this morning, becoming
onshore this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Today thru Thursday:
The area waters will see winds and seas transition back to
normal summertime conditions. The sfc pressure pattern will
yield a stalled front or trof across the Central Carolinas
during this period. Sfc ridging from the offshore centered high,
will extend back to the west or west-southwest across the area
waters and onshore in the vicinity of Cape Romain. The result,
wind directions primarily in the SSE-SSW compass range. The sfc
pg will remain rather relaxed with speeds generally around 10
kt. The daily sea breeze, and depending on it`s strength, will
roughly add atleast 5 kt to the overall speeds...ie. 10-15 kt or
around 15 kt to occur within 10 nm of the immediate coast. Seas
will generally run 2 to 4 ft with a SE swell at 7 to 8 second
periods dominating. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods
will dominate the seas spectrum during the sea breeze cycle.
Nocturnally driven Atlantic convection, widely scattered in
coverage, will dominate during the pre-dawn Thu hrs. Convection
moving off the Carolina mainland will generally dominate during
daylight hrs of today and again Thu.

Thursday Night thru Sun:
Calm winds in a weak gradient field will make for a benign
weather pattern for mariners this week. Seas will generally be
2-3 feet with no significant swell likely. The only notable
threat for boaters will be the elevated thunderstorm chances
each day. Conditions will continue to improve early next week
with light winds and waves 1-2 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21