913
FXUS62 KILM 112145
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
545 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
continue through this weekend and into next week with little
change in the overall weather pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Updated to lower chc of convection to mainly isolated associated
with sea breeze. Deep westerly flow and mid level ridging
helping to suppress convective activity with only a slight chc
into this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level cloud cover has hindered destabilization today (esp
inland). That plus the lack of yesterday`s forcing for ascent
from a shortwave and thunderstorm coverage should be lowered
back to normal today, if not a bit lower. Even the oft
enthusiastic HRRR only has limited coverage of storms and mainly
only along the seabreeze. Not quite ready to go dry along I-95
but will show a later introduction of POPs due the
aforementioned cloud cover and stability. After a normal diurnal
end of any convection tonight will be rain-free and
unseasonably mild to the tune of about 5 degrees. Saturday is
looking like a normal afternoon with respect to convection
timing and location as we should have a more sunny start to aid
in destabilization. The seabreeze will be the main contributor
but a few mesoscale boundaries should also be lurking inland.
The added sunshine will bring a warmer afternoon with low 90s
common away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Not a whole lot of change for the second half of the weekend
with weak flow aloft, Bermuda high pressure well offshore, and a
thermal trough inland. Scattered aftn/evening showers and
thunderstorms Sunday will be focused along the sea
breeze/thermal trough and outflow boundaries, before diminishing
in coverage following the loss of daytime heating. Temps Sunday
almost exactly the same as Saturday, with highs in the low/mid
90s and heat indices maxing out mostly in the 100-104 degree
range, just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period will feature frequent chances for rain and near
to slightly below normal temps for mid July. PoPs most days are
a bit higher than this weekend`s PoPs...in the likely range, but
we still undercut guidance a bit by blending in climatology, as
there is no organized forcing mechanism aloft outside of
transient shortwave troughs to warrant really high PoPs. Will
better nail down the timing as we get closer to the week. After
near normal highs on Monday, temps may only make it to the upr
80s Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR generally expected. Thunderstorms today will have nowhere
near the coverage as yesterday. Light southwesterly breeze
should be enough to prevent fog development tonight (unless
thunderstorms over-perform). Once again tomorrow thunderstorm
coverage will only introduce minor and short-lived restrictions
at any given terminal.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible
each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Southwesterly winds continue through the
period with high pressure anchored offshore. Seas around 3 ft
will contain both wind wave and swell components as usual in
such a setup. Overland troughiness expands Saturday for a
possible 5kt loss of wind speed.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions continue
as Bermuda high pressure resides well offshore. Winds average
out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, but actually in the
5-10 kt range much of the time. Seas mainly 2-3 ft, a combo of
southerly wind wave and 7-9 second SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/MBB