578
FXUS62 KILM 260528
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
128 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions will allow for the possibility of heavy
rainfall through Friday. A cold front then brings slightly
cooler but much drier air over the weekend with only a gradual
return of moisture and humidity early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
As of 120 AM EDT...The main area of showers, along with isolated
t-storms has shifted off the Cape Fear coast. Expecting
additional showers and t-storms to develop during the early
morning hours but nothing overly significant until later in the
day when additional heavy rainfall is on tap given this very
moist environment. The most recent update was primarily
cosmetic as there were no major changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The primary threat through the near term period will be possible
flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. PWATs will remain 2-2.5"
with a deep warm cloud layer and not much in the way of steering
flow and thus slow moving showers/storms. This additional
rainfall on top of the already moist soils will increase
flooding potential, so the Flood Watch has been extended through
Friday evening. This will be compounded by an encroaching trough
from the north. The resulting surface cold front and localized
low pressure along the boundary looks to move through Friday
afternoon/evening. Current rainfall estimates are 1-2" mainly
east of I-95. Lows in the lower 70s. Between rain, clouds, and
the front, temps will be slightly below normal, primarily for SE
NC. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will persist Friday night as a
cold front makes its way south. Some residual pops will remain
Saturday as the front and moisture are in no hurry this time of
year. Dry forecast remains intact for Sunday with mild conditions
and lower dewpoints settling in. Highs will generally be in the
middle to upper 80s with lows settling into the upper 60s Sunday
morning after lower 70s Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highly amplified pattern will smooth out in time
reverting to broad and messy troughing across the east with ridging
out west. No real significant systems to affect the area with
convective coverage...mainly seasonable in time driven by the
seabreeze and inland trough. Temperatures trend back toward
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be pockets of IFR CIGs, primarily KFLO and KLBT
during the early morning hours. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are
possible in/near any showers and isolated t-storms. Convection
will be hard to time, but expect additional TEMPO MVFR
conditions with higher confidence later in the day at all
terminals.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this weekend as a drier air-mass attempts to build across the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...
The passage of a cold front and possible coastal low Friday
will lead to an increase in activity over the waters. Heavy
rainfall could lead to brief reductions in visibility.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be generally 10-15 kt with a
transition from southerly flow to ENE late in the period. Seas
will be 2-4 ft.

Friday Night through Tuesday...
A somewhat rare northeast flow for late summer will be in
place for the weekend as high pressure builds in. It appears the
trajectory will be in place through Monday although weakening before
the standard south to southwesterly flow develops. Significant seas
will be 2-4 feet early then trend down to 2-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
     039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SHK/LEW