Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 212031
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
331 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thursday and Friday will be milder ahead of a cold front that
will bring some rain. Seasonable weekend weather will then give
way to another warmup starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure holds through tonight before moving offshore
early Thursday. The high overhead will lead to light winds after
sunset, veering from the north to the south by Thursday morning.
Trended overnight lows a bit cooler due to the calm winds and
lowered temps in our colder spots. The only problem is some
overnight cirrus moving through, so didn`t go too aggressive with
the cooling. Overall, lows should fall near or just above freezing,
with traditionally colder spots in the upper 20s. Cirrus should
stick around through Thursday with southerly flow building in behind
the surface high. The ridge axis will shift offshore as well with
deeper southerly flow and WAA moving in aloft for the latter half of
the day. NE SC highs in the mid-upper 60s and SE NC in the low-mid
60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A broad but not necessarily strong mid level trough
will move across the area Friday along with a cold front. No real
tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture with this one but good low level
convergence and some mid level forcing warrant a continuation of
likely to even categorical pops mostly for Friday morning. Rainfall
amounts should be within a few clicks of one quarter of an inch.

Next up is a potent/compact shortwave moving quickly across Saturday
mainly in the afternoon. Have incrementally increased pops as a few
light showers may develop with this feature and there is at least
some guidance in support of this idea. A nice warmup ahead of the
front Friday into the middle to upper 60s quickly gets worked over
Saturday with highs in the middle to upper 50s.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall the extended period still features a warm up as
the mid levels transition from a zonal to more amplified pattern
which includes ridging for the southeast. High temperatures will be
in the middle to perhaps even upper 70s beyond Sunday. There is a
system that trudges toward the region by mid week but experience has
shown these tend to slow down in time. There could be sea fog and or
coastal temperature challenges next week with this synoptic setup.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected through the 18Z TAF period. N winds should keep
gusting around 15-20 kts until sunset. High pressure building in
will make winds light and variable overnight, veering to out of
the south by Thursday morning. Despite the light winds, dry air
still in place overnight should limit any fog formation.

Extended Outlook... There is a moderate potential of MVFR
ceilings and visibility plus a low potential for IFR ceilings
late Thursday night into Friday as a cold front slides through
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...
High pressure overhead will lead to light and
variable winds over the coastal waters through early Thursday. The
high will shift offshore later in the day with increasing SW flow,
speeds increasing to 15-20 kts once more in the evening. Seas 2-4 ft
with a 3-4 ft ENE swell at 9-11 seconds.

Thursday Night through Monday...
Small craft conditions likely ahead of a cold front
Thursday night into Friday as winds and  seas both increase briefly
into criteria. Some modest cold air advection in the wake of the
front doesn`t seem to want to do much with wind speeds maybe 15-20
knots for a bit but mostly 10-15. Beyond this a south to southwest
flow will be in place with similar wind speeds. It could however
present an extended period of a sea fog threat.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW


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