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000
FXUS62 KILM 170547
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1247 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the Gulf coast and a trough situated just off the
coast will bring rain and drizzle to the area through early
Monday. Brief high pressure Monday and Monday night will give
way to more rain Tuesday through early Wednesday as a frontal
system crosses the region. Much colder and drier air will
overspread the area late week into the weekend as cold high
pressure influences weather across the Carolinas.

&&

.UPDATE...
The deeper moisture associated with the subtropical jet is
slowly pushing off the coast this evening. As a result there
only scattered areas of -RA/-DZ lingering with minimal QPF
expected. Other than increasing the coverage of fog for inland
areas have lowered POPs with the update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the surface, a coastal front is lingering just off the coast.
Weak surface low pressure develops along this front in response
to a 500 mb shortwave trough in the subtropical jet which will
pass overhead tonight. This results in rains continuing to move
in from the southwest and then quickly move off to the northeast
by Monday with the last of the showers moving off the southeast
North Carolina coast before 11 AM. The pattern matches well
with the lift along 290K isentropic surfaces of the GFS.
Rainfall amount will be less than 0.25" with the largest totals
along the coast.

With the coastal front and deep low-level moisture areas of fog
are expected to develop later tonight, especially farther away
from the coast.


The disturbance continues as the second in succession of
subtropical short wave streams will cross the area. Rain
chances will increase overnight as the rain propagates from the
south to the north.

Low temperatures: Tonight: 43 to 47F inland to 48 to 49F
at the coast. Monday night: 46 to 48F inland to 49F to
51F at the beaches.

Monday`s High temperatures: Inland 62 to 64 F inland 60 to
62 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
`Wet`, one way to succinctly describe this period, as a cold
front drops lazily south and east across SE NC and NE SC. Two
rain generation areas expected, first a Gulf disturbance ahead
of the cold front, linking-up with warm-frontal genesis Tuesday,
rain ending early evening. Late Tuesday night and Wednesday
batch 2, as frontal convergence slow transits the area, 1-1/2
inch possible ending Wednesday. No severe threats expected with
this system. Mild Tuesday, while Wednesday sees the onset of a
cooling trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
`Colder and Drier` may be one way to characterize the extended
forecast period beginning Wednesday night, with max-T Thursday
through Saturday possibly below normal for middle February.
Agricultural or gardening interests should monitor the extent of
cold air forecasts, as below freezing temperatures are likely Friday
morning and Saturday morning, as markedly cold high pressure falls
from Arctic origins out of Canada, ECMWF and GFS both place the
chilly cyclone over top the Carolinas next week, suggesting a fair,
and seasonably cool weekend with a sub-freezing start.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR conditions from low ceilings and reduced vsby from
fog will dominate overnight thru roughly 15Z. The inland
terminals may see bouts of LIFR conditions due to dense fog and
associated VVs. Leftover light rain or drizzle will lift away
from the Carolinas thru 08Z. Overall improvements to VFR
conditions likely by midday today as drier air temporarily
reaches and pushes across the Carolinas. The various low, mid
and upper level Water Vapor Imagery illustrates this nicely. The
main baroclinic zone is also shunted temporarily east and south
of the area with rain chances put on hold. The coastal
front/trof will remain offshore and east of the Carolinas this
period, resulting in N to NE winds. The sfc pg remains somewhat
relaxed with wind speeds around 5 kt inland terminals and up to
10 kt for the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions expected Tue thru Thu
Night. This a result of weak waves of low pressure moving ENE
along a stalled front across the Carolinas. Improving to
dominate VFR late Thu night thru Fri as the stalled front
finally pushes south of the Carolinas followed by strong
Canadian high pressure.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Monday Night: A coastal front will remain over the
waters and result in some rain/drizzle through the early morning
hours. East of the boundary winds are from a SEly direction
with speeds around 20 knots. However, across the inshore coastal
waters NEly flow with speeds around 10 knots are common. Seas
around 4 ft prevail farther offshore and around 2 to 3 ft
inshore. Offshore winds will remain in place across most of the
coastal waters tonight then NE to E flow will develop during
Monday with weak low pressure far east of Cape Lookout and a
ridge expected along the coastal Carolinas.

Very good marine conditions early Tuesday, light SE winds and a
gentle wave spectrum. A warm front will lift north over the waters
Tuesday, and marine visibility will likely deteriorate in rain and
mist during the day Tuesday, although winds will remain less than 13
kt. Frontal passage early Wednesday will mark the onset of worsening
marine conditions, as N-NE winds become strong, as massive and cold
Canadian high pressure falls toward the Carolinas. Wave bulletins
for this period show seas near 10 feet at 41013 Thursday and Friday.
The cold biting wind, strong chop, and large seas, will make this a
hazardous marine period, and Gale force gusts are possible given the
frigid and deep air mass rushing over the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...08
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC/21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RH/SRP