


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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378 FXUS62 KILM 021719 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 119 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will bring elevated shower and thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler temperatures through Thursday. The weakening front will then slowly move offshore by Friday. Rain chances increase early next week as weak low pressure develops along the front. More typical summer time weather returns for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Convection readily developing this afternoon under a very moist but not necessarily that unstable of an airmass. With relatively low shear and instability values little to no severe weather is expected. While the activity is a little more coastal centric or I-95 eastward right now...some activity may develop or wander into the western areas in in the next few hours. Convection may linger well into the evening hours as well. There should be a lull Thursday morning then with the actual front associated with the synoptic system convection will redevelop Thursday midday or so more concentrated east. Lows tonight will approach the lower 70s with Thurswday`s highs in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Relatively dry for the 4th holiday with the local area between a 5h ridge over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and a 5h low dropping into New England. The resulting northwest flow can sometimes be a troublemaker when it comes to the Carolinas, in the form of strong to severe storms. However, this does not appear to be the case for this event. Mid-level subsidence and an abundance of dry air, both thanks to the 5h ridge, will keep rain chances very limited. Only real chance would be along the coast where the sea breeze and remains of a stalled front might be able to kick off a few isolated showers during peak heating. Temperatures will run a little above normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high building down the coast this weekend pushes the remains of the weak front off the coast for the weekend. Ill-defined surface and mid-level pattern with some bagginess aloft resulting in very weak steering flow. This will allow for slow development of a surface low somewhere along the front on Sat. The low meanders off the Southeast coast Sun with a surface high to the north limiting its movement. The center of the high slips offshore later Sun or Sun night which opens the door for this feature to start gaining some latitude. All indications are the low will remain weak but posses plenty of tropical moisture. Precipitable water surges to 2.4 inches Sun into Mon. Several factors are in place supportive of heavy rainfall potential. Storm motion is on the high end of favored numbers, around 10 mph, but the deep warm cloud layer will ensure storms are efficient rainfall producers. Hard to say at this point what areas will have the potential for the heaviest rain given all the uncertainty with respect to the low, but it is something to watch. More typical summer pattern returns Tue/Wed with a broad, but weak 5h ridge over the southern states. Piedmont trough sets up with the Bermuda High being displaced slightly by the exiting 5h trough/surface low. No signs of dynamic forcing Tue/Wed, but plenty of moisture, surface based instability and the sea breeze/trough. Expect to see shower and thunderstorm coverage more typical of summer. Highs near to slightly below normal for the first half of the period with cloud cover and increased rain chances Sun/Mon keeping highs under 90 in most areas, especially Sun. Low to mid 90s return Tue/Wed. Lows will run above normal through the period, warmest toward the end of the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Good coverage of convection ongoing this afternoon and to no small extent high resolution guidance will warrant tempo (MVFR) groups moreso along the coast trending into prob30 groups in a few hours. This is necessitated by global models showing convection well into the evening hours as well. Beyond this of lower confidence is the development of MVFR to perhaps even IFR stratus and or BR inland. However it does seem reasonable with the weak pressure pattern. Went slightly more optimistic in LBT via guidance. Extended Outlook...Expect possible flight restrictions Thursday through early Fri from scattered convection. Convection more isolated this weekend into next week with VFR dominating. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue through the overnight hours ahead of a cold front to the west. The front and a weak wind shift will push across early Thursday morning but then become slightly distorted by the sea breeze in the afternoon hours. Significant seas will show a subtle downward trend basically from 2- 4 feet to 2-3 feet. Thursday Night through Monday... Other than a brief period where a weak low may develop along a stalled front winds across the waters will be limited. Weak gradient into Fri starts to tighten up later Fri or Fri night as the low starts to organize. The gradient between the high building down the coast and the weak low could lead to east- northeast flow 15-20 kt late Fri. Speeds remain elevated into Sun morning before the gradient starts to relax and winds decrease. Winds will be enhanced long enough to push seas close to 6 ft in some areas later Sat night into Sun. Otherwise seas will run 3-4 ft. Seas will be a mix of a south to southeast swell and an east to southeast wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Although the strong south winds of Tue should abate by about 5-8 mph today, there should still be enough 6 second southerly wave energy to create a high risk of rip currents along the south-facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC. Elsewhere the wind will have an increasingly parallel-to- shore component which should reduce rip current intensity. A strong longshore current (flowing south to north) will remain forecast for the New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches for Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SHK MARINE...III/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW