Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050259
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
959 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front overnight will bring cooler air across the
Carolinas Friday into the weekend, while low pressure passes
south of the area with a few clouds on Saturday. Dry weather
will continue through much of next week with a noticeable
warm-up into mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE/...

No changes of note. Our dry cold front has been evident in
night-imagery channels of GOES-E all evening, as a southward
dropping arc now moving into the SE corner of NC. In wake of
this feature marks the onset of drying, and increasing wind
chills that dip in the mid 30s at daybreak. The latest marine
threat gusts guidance shows a small craft advisory is not needed
at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry wx will continue through the entire Near Term Period. A dry,
weak front drops through the area around midnight tonight with NW
winds shifting to the N. Even with a little bit of wind, a clear sky
will still allow temps to fall into the mid/upr 30s, slightly below
normal for early March. Weak low-level CAA continues behind the
front for Fri, leading to temps only maxing out in the mid 50s most
areas under a mostly sunny sky. Some increasing clouds then for Fri
night as moisture increases in the WSW flow aloft, but low and mid
levels are well too dry for any precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An already highly amplified trough will deepen further through the
period. Low pressure will develop as a result well offshore, far
enough to preclude any rain chances. Cold advection will be fostered
by the setup however keeping both daytime highs and nighttime lows
some 10 degrees below climatology despite ample sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong mid level trough will be off the coast by the start of the
period allowing for building heights from the west while at the
surface high pressure remains overhead to inhibit mixing leading to
one last cool day. High moves off the coast Tuesday but not by much.
Even so, a little bit of the low level warm advection should make it
to the surface for a more seasonable afternoon. This setup is
relatively unchanged as we round out the period. Each afternoon will
tack on a few degrees from the previous and a few low level
diurnally formed cumulus clouds will start dotting the sky.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. Dry cold front to increase N wind a little bit overnight,
but not more than a 10 knot sustained. Winds should not become
overly gusty Friday, but will be favored at coastal airfields
in a N-NNE breeze. Winds diminish late in TAF cycle, N at 2-4
knots, joined by SKC to SCT300.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Low pressure to the south may bring
ceilings on Saturday, but should be in VFR range with little
to no aviation impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday Night: Sub-SCA conditions continue over the next
several days as sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the NW. A
weak front drops through the waters tonight, with weak CAA allowing
for occasional gusts to 25 kt but mainly up to 20 kt. Winds then
just 10-15 kt for Fri/Fri night as the high moves closer to the
area. Seas consistently 2-4 ft during this timeframe, with the 4
footers mainly just following the fropa late tonight into Fri
morning.

Saturday through Tuesday... Northerly winds abate quickly on
Saturday as high pressure moves in from the north. A small southward
push of this high will allow the still northerly winds to increase
back to more typical speeds. The offshore fetch meanwhile will
preclude any significant building of wave heights. The lightest
winds of the period then slated for Monday as the center of the
high arrives. Its gradual progress offshore on Tuesday to veer
winds to the SE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EST Friday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...Colby
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...8
MARINE...MAS/MBB/MJC



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