276
FXUS62 KILM 260122
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
922 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions will allow for the possibility of heavy
rainfall through Friday. A cold front then brings slightly
cooler but much drier air over the weekend with only a gradual
return of moisture and humidity early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Scattered convection and light stratiform rain continue to move
across the region this evening. Overall intensity has been
decreasing and this trend will generally continue overnight.
There will likely be some isolated pockets where convection
flares up, especially along or just off the coast. Fog will be
another concern, especially inland where some areas received
1-2" of rain today. Biggest changes were to lower rain chances
given radar trends and latest CAM runs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The primary threat through the near term period will be possible
flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. PWATs will remain 2-2.5"
with a deep warm cloud layer and not much in the way of steering
flow and thus slow moving showers/storms. This additional
rainfall on top of the already moist soils will increase
flooding potential, so the Flood Watch has been extended through
Friday evening. This will be compounded by an encroaching trough
from the north. The resulting surface cold front and localized
low pressure along the boundary looks to move through Friday
afternoon/evening. Current rainfall estimates are 1-2" mainly
east of I-95. Lows in the lower 70s. Between rain, clouds, and
the front, temps will be slightly below normal, primarily for SE
NC. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will persist Friday night as a
cold front makes its way south. Some residual pops will remain
Saturday as the front and moisture are in no hurry this time of
year. Dry forecast remains intact for Sunday with mild conditions
and lower dewpoints settling in. Highs will generally be in the
middle to upper 80s with lows settling into the upper 60s Sunday
morning after lower 70s Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highly amplified pattern will smooth out in time
reverting to broad and messy troughing across the east with ridging
out west. No real significant systems to affect the area with
convective coverage...mainly seasonable in time driven by the
seabreeze and inland trough. Temperatures trend back toward
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken, but showers
and occasional thunderstorms will continue to affect the area
through at least midnight. Brief IFR is possible with strongest
storms, mainly along the SC coast the next few hours. Rainfall
amounts in excess of 1" at inland sites coupled with light to
calm surface winds and boundary layer winds under 10 kt will
likely lead to MVFR/IFR fog and ceilings developing after
midnight. Along the coast have lower confidence with slightly
stronger boundary layer winds and potential for isolated
nocturnal convection. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is likely Friday afternoon/evening with periods of MVFR/IFR
likely.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions with MVFR/IFR possible
with any storms each day through Saturday. VFR will return
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...
The passage of a cold front and possible coastal low Friday
will lead to an increase in activity over the waters. Heavy
rainfall could lead to brief reductions in visibility.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be generally 10-15 kt with a
transition from southerly flow to ENE late in the period. Seas
will be 2-4 ft.

Friday Night through Tuesday...
A somewhat rare northeast flow for late summer will be in
place for the weekend as high pressure builds in. It appears the
trajectory will be in place through Monday although weakening before
the standard south to southwesterly flow develops. Significant seas
will be 2-4 feet early then trend down to 2-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch through Friday evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
     039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SHK/LEW