Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 062337
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
737 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross the area Friday morning, followed
by high pressure on Saturday that will transition off the coast
Sunday. A cold front moves through Monday night, stalling close
by to our south for some unsettled weather late next week ahead
of a cold front that pushes in from the west on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No edits needed to the forecast for early evening updates, as
isolated showers are beginning to emerge in vicinity of a marine
boundary making inroads through the coastal interior. Most of
the near-term models depict a 2-meter RH at or greater than 95
percent late tonight, and 10-meter winds at 3-4 knots during the
night-time period. This should lead to patches and banks of
mist, or thicker ground fog into daybreak on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Bit of a complex surface pressure pattern over the area at the
moment, with NE to ENE winds near the coast behind this morning`s
front and more variable flow with weak troughing developing just
inland. Shallow moisture with this pattern has allowed widespread
cloudiness to develop near Cape Fear Region today along with
increasing cloudiness inland over the last couple of hours. While
this may yield a few sprinkles, do not anticipate much in the way of
measurable rainfall for the next several hours. Overnight, shortwave
energy ahead of a mid level trough to our west will allow broad sfc
low pressure with multiple centers to move into our vicinity. This
will lead to a little better precip chances esp. over our NC
counties later tonight through early Friday afternoon. Overall
chances for showers still look to diminish later in the afternoon as
the low lifts through and then away from the OBX into the Atlc.
Models have been showing a narrow band of instability and
convergence off to the W/NW of the main surface low so have included
thunder in the forecast. Could be a window where wind profiles and
steep mid lvl lapse rates support a severe concern, but current
thinking is it will be limited to far NE part of our CWA, with
threat diminishing through the aftn as low pres departs to the NE.
Noted Pender county is in a Marginal Risk now from SPC. Lower
thunder/precip chances reside over our SC counties tomorrow.

Reinforcing surge of drier air with NW winds will occur in the
afternoon and evening bringing fire weather concerns as highlighted
in fire weather section below.  CAA pattern will lead to well below
normal temps Friday night with most in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry northwesterly flow in place through the short term as cutoff
upper low spins off the New England coast. After a chilly start the
late morning hours should warm nicely as the boundary layer quickly
with 15-30kt winds through its depth. The eventual highs will be
held a few degrees below climatology on account of a shallow
northerly wind component at the surface. Winds should remain below
Red Flag criteria even as afternoon  RH values plummet into the 20s.
Fire Danger Statements appear likely. Mid level flow flattens
Saturday night and a warm front will be developing to our south.
Sunday will warm to seasonable norms in the warm advection regime.
Clouds eventually start to increase Sunday night leading to very
mild readings for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain chances increase late Monday into Monday night as a cold front
approaches. Given the lack of amplitude aloft paltry QPF prospects
will likely do little to alleviate our D0 conditions even if
coverage is appreciable for a time.  A bit of a wedge situation sets
up on Tuesday, which will thus wind up on the cooler side of climo.
Small rain chances may also persist depending on how cloud the
boundary stalls.  This pattern may be ideal for some drought relief
later in the week as the boundary stalls nearby to our south and
energy aloft approaches. Ideally a few flat waves of low pressure
may traverse the boundary to keep our weather unsettled before the
trough carves out in the east and shunts everything offshore on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moderate turbulence should be expected most of this TAF cycle
due to vertical motions associated with upper trough passage.
Generally VFR with exception of patchy 3-5 SM in mist between
9z-11z, and isolated convective restrictions north of a CPC to
ILM line Friday, induced by scattered showers and isolated
TSTMs, in morning and again in afternoon. Outside of convection
VFR conditions are anticipated.

Wind will become strong aft 20z, becoming NW 12-16 kt with
occasional gusts of 23 kt, in wake of frontal passage, remaining
gusty through end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through Sunday. Cold front
approaches Monday with chance for sub-VFR conditions and
precipitation through early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday night...Moderate NE to E winds over the area will
diminish a little further through evening, and eventually become
more variable later tonight into early Friday as broad, complex low
pressure moves NE through the area. A few showers and thunderstorms
are also possible with this, esp. over our NC waters through early
Friday afternoon. Behind the low, a surge of W trending NW winds is
expected to develop tomorrow. Some potential for SCA conditions to
develop with this esp. late tomorrow afternoon through evening
especially in gusts. Not enough confidence to raise headline at this
time, but a period of gusty NW winds and steep, short period seas
near or just shy of SCA levels is becoming more likely. NW winds
will come down a category into Saturday morning as high pressure
begins building in from the SW and low pressure departs to the
NE.

Saturday through Tuesday... Wind will blow offshore on Saturday,
mostly resulting from low pressure well off the MA coast. With its
rapid movement to the NE Saturday night there will be little
pressure gradient left locally and winds will grow very light;
likely less than 10kt. Flow veers to southerly on Sunday due to a
system developing over the MS Valley. The continued approach of this
system Monday paired with strengthening high pressure offshore will
push seas into advisory realm as 6 footers develop. Sharp turn to
the NE with FROPA late Monday night; with wind and seas both
declining though steeper wave faces likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After coordination with our forestry partners and surrounding
offices, have issued Fire Danger Statement for tomorrow when dry
surge of NW winds occurs. Left Brunswick/Pender/New Hanover for now
given RH values higher and better precip chances there. Enhanced
fire danger possible again on Saturday. RH values currently look a
little lower on Sat but winds should diminish so will be borderline.
However, given very dry fuels it will need to be reevaluated for
future product potential.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...8
MARINE...MCW/MBB
FIRE WEATHER...MCW


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