025
FXUS62 KILM 260716
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
316 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for heavy rain continues today but ends later
Saturday as a cold front moves through. After a dry Sunday with
low humidity next week will feature a gradual ramping up of
humidity and rain chances while temperatures hover near average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery shows a deformation zone just east of the
forecast area along with ample moisture in place from the Gulf Coast
into the Southeast United States. At the surface, a front will drift
into the area later today. The synoptic boundary coupled with the
sea breeze set in a very moist environment will support the
development of additional showers/t-storms. Impressive PWATs are
expected to be in place today, and given a little more low-level
focus with the aforementioned front in the vicinity heavy rainfall
is likely. As a result, there will be no changes to the Flood Watch.
The front will begin to push south of the area late tonight as high
pressure across New England ridges southward into the Carolinas.
PWATs will lower in response as the deep moisture is suppressed to
the south and east. Overall, we will finally see a change to the
pattern that has been in place across the area for a few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A few light showers may linger on Saturday as the cold front sinks
to our south. This will have to be resolved in future forecasts as
the possibilities are rather pronounced. Solutions like the WRF
still provide us with inches of rain (mainly along the coast)
whereas the GFS is generally rain-free. With dewpoints dropping
quickly from the north the drier solution certainly seem more
plausible. How strong the wave along the boundary will also dictate
rain coverage and amounts and the WRF just seems to strong. For the
remainder of the period some unseasonable NE winds will bring
dewpoints below 70. Sunday`s highs looking seasonable but both nights
will be almost a category cooler than climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some weak shortwave energy will begin affecting the area
Monday. There may not yet be enough moisture return for
meaningful rain chances over much of the area so POPS are being
kept quite low. Additional moisture and shortwave impulses
Tuesday should bode well for better coverage of convection. Weak
mid level trough will remain in the Eastern U.S. for the
remainder of the period. The entire long term will thus feature
gradually increasing coverage of showers and storms while
temperature deviations from normal are minimized.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be pockets of IFR CIGs, primarily KFLO and KLBT
during the early morning hours. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are
possible in/near any showers and isolated t-storms. Convection
will be hard to time, but expect additional TEMPO MVFR
conditions with higher confidence later in the day at all
terminals.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this weekend as a drier air-mass attempts to build across the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Convection will provide for local enhancement to
wind and seas across the adjacent waters at times through the
period, but especially tonight as a front pushes across the waters.
The frontal passage will bring a change to the winds from SWly flow
today, veering to a Nly direction later tonight. Seas will generally
range from 3-4 feet today, then around 3 ft tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday night... Cold front pushes through on
Saturday turning winds to the NE. The resulting wind waves
along with a SE swell could lead to occasional steep wave faces.
This holds true on Sunday, whereas a more typical southerly
component returns on Monday. A weak pressure pattern late in the
period will keep swells minimal as light southerly winds
continue locally.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
     039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...ILM