Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
267 FXUS62 KILM 100116 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 916 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances once again this afternoon and evening. with even better storm chances Thursday and possibly Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Main concern for this update was the hourly POP/SKY/WX for the remainder of this evening thru the overnight hrs. Using the latest 88D trends and high res hourly guidance. Have indicated a slow decline of POPs inland. However, adjacent Atl waters, KLTX radar lighting up with pcpn mainly focused within cloud streets via our AWIPS "tiled" sat imagery trends. Look for the inland pcpn to further decline by the predawn hrs while some of those cloud/pcpn streets skirt the coast during the predawn Thu hrs, up thru several hrs after daybreak. The Cape Fear area looks to further light up once the days insolation commences Thu. Have also highlighted the HWO for the SLGT risk of severe tstorms Thu, mainly inland. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall producing localized flooding are the primary burdens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mid-level ridge axis will become increasingly suppressed to the south as a shortwave trough pushes across the Ohio Valley through tonight and reaches the central Appalachians around midday Thursday. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain south- southwesterly winds through Thursday, keeping near-seasonable heat and humidity in place with highs around 90F and lows in the low-mid 70s. With respect to convection, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development for the remainder of today should focus mainly in South Carolina around and west of I-95, although isolated activity cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze. Tonight into tomorrow morning, another round of land breeze showers and isolated storms near the Cape Fear coast appears likely as capping weakens near the coast, with these moving onshore late in the night into Thursday morning. From midday Thursday onward, isolated pop-up showers and storms can be expected inland as 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE develops, with outflow helping to develop new storms. As the aforementioned shortwave crosses the Appalachians, numerous showers and storms are likely across the Piedmont west of our area, which could loosely organize into a line as bulk shear increases to modest levels due to the shortwave. This line shifting eastward would bring an isolated severe wind threat with it, although decreasing shear with eastward extent means this line will likely be weakening as it pushes into the area, most likely after the evening commute. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted inland areas in a "slight" risk (threat level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, with a decreasing risk towards the coast. Although an isolated pop-up storm ahead of this line could become strong to severe, weak shear will limit storm strength and longevity. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pops remain in the forecast for Thursday evening well into the overnight hours via convection that develops during the day. As for Friday and Saturday some guidance is still hinting at a drier forecast but the preferred NBM solution remains very active and continued with the higher pops especially Friday. Thermal profiles have trended a bit cooler perhaps from expected convection thus the need for any heat related headlines has diminished slightly. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The region remains in a very subtle weakness aloft and the forecast remains mostly unchanged. If there are any noticeable trends the pops are slightly lower on Sunday and Monday but only incrementally so. Thermal profiles continue to support low end chances of a heat headline or two noting that subtle changes in convective coverage along with daytime mixing heights will have the final say. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR/MVFR conditions to dominate the remainder of the evening as pcpn slowly comes to an end across or in the vicinity of the inland terminals. However, the coastal terminals will observe periodic onshore movement of shra through the evening, potentially increasing in coverage during the predawn hrs as well as intensity, especially after daybreak Thu. Will indicate a tstorm threat generally between 09z-14z with prob30s and possibly a tempo group for ILM terminal. The issue inland overnight will be the potential for low stratus, sub 1k ft ceilings along with patchy ground fog, mainly between 09z and 13z. Thu is looking like better coverage of shra/tsra than Wed across the area, early morning for the coastal terminals, and then area wide during the afternoon and continuing well into the evening. Looking at S 5 to 10 kt this evening becoming SSW-SW 4 to 9 kt overnight into daylight Thu morning. Winds become SSW up to 10 kt inland terminals, 10-15 kt at the coastal terminals, during Thu aftn/evening. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tomorrow... Bermuda high pressure over the Central Atlantic will maintain generally south winds over the waters through the period, with speeds around 15-20 kts on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. Thus, southerly wind waves of 1-3 ft can be expected through the remainder of today and tonight. 2-4 ft seas are expected Thursday afternoon as winds increase due to a tightening pressure gradient well ahead of a cold front over the Ohio Valley. Thursday Night through Monday... Summertime pattern continues for the marine community through the period. Outside of some sea breeze accelerations and distorted wind fields from convection south to southwest winds of 10- 15 knots will generally be the case. There remain some indications winds could be even lighter or concentrated more toward the lower end of the range next week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...SHK/ABW