Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 060211
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
911 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front overnight will reinforce cool air through the
weekend and into Monday, with low temperatures below freezing
in most locations early Sunday and again Monday. As this high
moves off the coast, pronounced warming will be felt mid week.

&&

.UPDATE/...

No changes this update, substantial elevated cloudiness to
overtake the region but the low levels of the troposphere
remain in a drying mode, so no mentionable POP values.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the surface pattern through Saturday
night. The high, over central Canada, will continue building south
through the OH Valley into next week. The only semblance of
weather will be a shortwave crossing southern GA and northern
FL tonight into Sat. The 5h trough over the East Coast is strong
enough to keep the shortwave and the bulk of its moisture
suppressed south of the local area. Forecast soundings do show
an increase in moisture above 9k with the wave passing south and
an increase in mid and upper level cloud cover is anticipated
overnight and for the first half of Sat. Moisture aloft shifts
southeast later Sat with afternoon skies clearing from northwest
to southeast with clear skies expected Sat night.

Increasing cloud cover tonight will help offset the impact of light
winds and dry boundary layer conditions. Lows will end up below
climo, but not as low as they could be. Highs Sat will again run
below climo, with temps in the mid to upper 50s in most areas.
Clouds in the morning will gave way to patches of sun by late
morning with increasing afternoon sunshine. Light winds and clear
skies Sat night will allow for excellent radiational cooling with
lows potentially into the upper 20s in typical cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deep layer north-northwesterly flow in place on Sunday as strong mid
level trough axis swings through. Surface gradient will remain
rather weak, the end result a sunny but very cool afternoon. Highs
in the mid 50s some 10 degrees below climatology as will be the lows
near 30. The mid level system swings decidedly off the coast by
Monday but the surface high remains directly overhead as do higher
heights in the entire boundary layer. This will lead to shallow
mixing and a similarly cool afternoon as the low level thermal
recovery is inhibited from being realized at the surface (the few
added degrees a function of solar modification rather than
advection).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday afternoon warms back up to climatological norms as high
pressure starts to slide off the coast. Even warmer values are
slated for Wednesday as the center of the high moves even farther
east, though an extension of ridging into the Carolinas will prevent
what would`ve ended up even larger deviations from climo. As this
setup largely remains unchanged Thursday into Friday temperatures
will continue to climb as the airmass is modified by ample sunshine,
the continued ridging from the northeast preventing strong warm
advection.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR, only high clouds expected, as a system passes near the
area, well above restrictions. N-NNE winds to increase a bit
after 3-4z as a dry cold front crosses the coast, NNE winds
Saturday 6-9 kt, easing to N 2-5 kt at end of TAF cycle.

Extended Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies Saturday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday night:
High pressure centered northwest of the area will maintain
northeast flow across the waters through Sat night. Gradient
will support 10 to 15 kt with occasional periods of solid 15 kt.
Seas 2 to 3 ft with an occasional 4 ft overnight will diminish
to around 2 ft by Sat evening/night.

Sunday through Wednesday... Slow moving high pressure will be the
dominant wind and wave maker through the period. Early on as the
center of the ridge progresses east while remaining to our north
winds will be out of the north. As the center makes its closest
approach on Tuesday winds will become light and quite variable
allowing east to fall to 2 ft, maybe less. A light southerly flow
will become established later in the day that will last into
Wednesday in response to both the high moving offshore as well as it
extending a ridge axis of higher pressures/lower wind speeds into
the Carolinas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...8
MARINE...III/MBB



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