Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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858
FXUS62 KILM 110548
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1248 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and showers are expected ahead of a cold front that should
move off the coast tonight. High pressure will build across the
Carolinas from the north Tuesday and Wednesday, moving offshore
Wednesday night. Low pressure could bring another chance of
rain late Thursday, followed by new high pressure building
eastward for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Lowered PoPs as radar and isentropic analysis indicate that
there will be a lull in activity over the next few hours. Still
expecting widespread shower activity around sunrise through the
late morning hours. A few thunderstorms remain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Clouds currently cover most of the East Coast as Gulf moisture is
drawn northward between mid-upper ridge off the Southeast coast and
an upper low over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the inland wedge
from earlier today continues to weaken with coastal trough just off
the coast. Light radar returns this afternoon are not making it to
the ground as mid level dry air remains in place. Expect this dry
air to erode after sunset, with light rain moving into western parts
of the CWA through late evening.

Rain chances continue to expand across the area overnight as several
500mb impulses move across from the west this evening into early
Monday. Left exit region of 250mb jet will combine with the PVA to
increase pops to 40-50% between early morning hours tomorrow and
midday. Overall, rainfall totals will be between 0.1" and 0.25",
though some hi-res guidance is showing isolated 0.75-1" may be
possible through Monday evening. Isolated thunder possible Monday
morning into afternoon hours, aided by dewpoints approaching 70F.
Rain coverage will diminish from west to east midday-afternoon
Monday. Cold front will be near or just west of I-95 Monday evening.
Above normal temps with lows between 60 and 65 tonight and upper 70s
Monday, though temps may end up a few degrees cooler along the coast
if clouds and rain stick around a bit longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering showers,mainly along the coast early Mon evening,
will come to an end through Mon eve as dry air works its way
into the area from the W-NW. Pcp water values up around 1.6
inches to start will drop through Mon night as winds veer to the
N and cooler and drier air makes its way in behind the cold
front. By Tues, it will be a different day with pcp water values
down around a half inch and dewpoints dropping about 15 to 20
degrees. Expect lows to drop down to the mid 50s to around 60
close to the coast. Temps will only rebound to around 70 under
bright sunshine and cooler northerly winds before dropping late
day as better CAA comes into the evening with clear skies. CAA
will bring temps down into the 40s with wind sheltered places
possibly dropping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry and cool high pressure will extend down the eastern CONUS
on Wed into early Thurs before another cold front reaches the
area Thurs aftn/eve. Moisture tries to get drawn up from the
Gulf, but do not get much of a return flow to bring it this far
north. May instead see some weak isentropic lift inland to drive
an increase in clouds and light pcp. For most of our local
forecast area, we will see an increase in clouds and an uptick
in pcp chances. Overall, front lacks moisture but may see some
pcp Thurs aftn/eve. Should see a bit of CAA behind front as high
pressure builds in behind front. GFS shows 850 temps dropping
down from near 8c Thurs eve to 4c by Fri morning.

Temps will basically remain near or slightly below normal Wed
through Fri with a gradual warming into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Difficult forecast overnight. An inland moving coastal trough
will maintain VFR CIGs along the coast. Brief MVFR will be
possible in showers that move onshore, but the bulk of activity
will arrive after 12Z. Showers and few embedded thunderstorms
could bring MVFR between 12Z and its departure during the early
afternoon.

Inland, LIFR and VLIFR conditions are creeping eastward behind
a shortwave which is slowly pushing a coastal trough eastward.
Expect this to impact FLO over the next few hours. The arrival
of elevated light showers could bring periodic mixing near the
surface and briefly lift CIGs above the expected predominant
IFR. Trickier at LBT where the coastal trough is closer. Expect
VFR until around sunrise when IFR develops behind the initial
stationary front. This is likely to arrive with a larger mass of
showers which could complicate things with varying categories.

VFR later this afternoon and this evening.

Extended Outlook... There is a low potential for MVFR cloud
ceilings Thursday night as wave of low pressure moves across the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Southerly winds 10-15 kts tonight turn
southwesterly around 10 kts Monday as a cold front approaches
the area. Seas linger in the 3-4 ft range tonight and tomorrow
as SE 8-9 sec swell continues to dominate the local coastal
waters. Rain chances over the waters increase around midnight
tonight and continues through Monday afternoon, with isolated
thunder possible.

Monday night through Thursday... Winds will veer around as cold
front makes it way through the waters Mon eve into Mon night.
SW winds will shift around to the W-NW by midnight and come
around to the north by Tues morning. N-NE flow will increase
through Tues as high pressure builds in. This cool NE surge of
winds will produce gusts up around 25 kts and will push seas up
into SCA thresholds late Tues through Wed. Gradual improvement
will come Wed night into Thurs. Seas will start out around 3 to
4 ft Mon night into Tues with an increase to 4 to 6 ft Tues
night into Wed. Seas will be back down below SCA thresholds by
Wed night, 3 to 5 ft and down to 3 to 4 ft Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/VAO