891
FXUS62 KILM 251818
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions will allow for the possibility of heavy
rainfall through Friday. A cold front then brings slightly
cooler but much drier air over the weekend with only a gradual
return of moisture and humidity early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
As of 1 PM EDT showers are increasing in coverage to our west
with lightning activity currently isolated to the coast but
should be expanding inland shortly. Updated 18Z aviation
discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The deep moisture plume per water vapor imagery will continue to
extend from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. This pattern is
primary directed by the upper low across eastern Canada and trough
lagging southwestward into TX. Meanwhile at the surface, the Bermuda
high is directing high dewpoints into the region with a nearly
stationary front positioned across the inland Carolinas. An impulse
will pass by the area this morning. Additional hard to time impulses
embedded in the mid-level flow are expected to allow for more
convection across the forecast area through tonight. High
precipitation rates are expected, especially given precipitable
water of 2.2-2.3"+ today and tonight. Given the high precipitable
water plan to expand the Flood Watch eastward to the coast. Ample
cloud cover and coverage of convection will limit high temperatures
to the mid 80s most locations this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks to be one last very unsettled day as a front moves into
the area with still very humid conditions. With PW values of 2.3"
and a very deep warm cloud layer the chance for isolated flooding
will be present especially given a very slow forecast storm motion.
WPC continues to paint the area in a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall. And while inland areas are still in a more
severe drought than the coast it`s tough to pinpoint where the
heaviest rainfall will occur. The boundary pushes through by
Saturday morning with dry advection occurring the entire day...PW
values falling to 1.2" by evening! A continued push of dry air
Saturday night will allow dewpoints to fall below 70 as will the air
temperatures for some inland locales-which for most of the area has
only happened once or twice the first few days of July and not
since.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure pushes in from the north behind frontal passage Sunday
as a shortwave ridge builds to our west and a cutoff low spins off
of New England. While this will not bring any significant cooldown
most residents will still notice the very comfortable by July
standards dewpoints. The GFS has some QPF Sunday on what looks like
a NE resultant seabreeze but with such low dewpoints advecting in
would like to hold off introducing rain chances. Mid level ridge
weakens Monday as does the post-frontal high to our north but there
still shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture recovery keeping our
rain chances minimal, 20s doing the trick at this point. Tuesday and
Wednesday will feature slightly warmer and more humid conditions
with seasonable (30/40) POPs. Convection may not be limited to the
sea breeze by the period`s end as a mid level trough should be
approaching from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isolated showers/storms are mostly affecting coastal terminals
currently but activity is picking up to ouw west. This will
continue through the rest of the day with coverage expected to
increase this evening. Primary concern that`s being seen with
convection moving over terminals currently is brief IFR VSBYs
due to heavy rainfall. Timing for convection will be variable so
amendments may be needed. CIGs also seem to be generally MVFR
with IFR possible towards the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions are expected outside
any convection with the potential for TEMPO MVFR CIGs with any
storms each day through Saturday. May see a drying trend by
Saturday night into early next week with VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...A SWly fetch will remain in place across the
adjacent waters between the Bermuda High and weak lower pressure
along a nearly stationary front across the inland Carolinas. Speeds
AOA 15 knots in this fetch will continue to support seas up to
around 4 ft. As the old front to the west drifts toward the coast
may see the pressure gradient relax by late tonight. In addition,
rounds of convection this morning will likely lead to localized
increases in winds/seas.

Friday through Monday night.. The seemingly permanent S to SW flow
lasts into Friday but is then disrupted by a cold frontal passage.
High pressure building behind this boundary will bring a rare July
northerly flow regime. There will not be a big push of wind with or
following FROPA but wave faces will steepen from the direction
change. Late in the period the flow will gradually veer to onshore
and then southerly as the post-frontal high washes out and the
Bermuda High tries and only partially succeeds in reasserting
itself into the Southeast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MBB/SRP