Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 070732
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
232 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather through the week
ahead with plenty of sunshine each day. Unseasonably cool
temperatures to start will reach near normal by Tuesday and
continue to warm to above normal through the late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will move farther away from the Southeast coast today
as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley
shifts slowly eastward. A sharp upper level impulse will dive
southeast over the Carolina coast this afternoon with 500 mb temps
expected to fall as low as -30C. Even with dewpoints in the teens
inland and 20s near the coast, lapse rates are sufficiently steep
for a few cumulus to develop at the top of the deep daytime mixed
layer, particularly across the Cape Fear area. Several of the models
even develop some showers within a zone of 100-200 J/kg CAPE well
east of the Pender County coastline. Dry weather is expected for us
today with highs reaching 55-58 degrees.

Clear skies and light winds should create an unseasonably chilly
night with lows likely falling below freezing for all but the
beaches. We`re still 1-4 weeks away from the average date of the
last spring freeze, so no freeze warnings will be issued. Clear
skies are expected on Monday as the high builds across the area
during the afternoon. The airmass should moderate on Monday with
highs 56-61, coolest at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure overhead Monday night for good radiational cooling
down into the mid 30s. Though wind remains very light on Tuesday it
does manage to shift to the south for a seasonable afternoon with
highs in the mid 60s. This will hold true Tuesday night as well as
high pressure shifts off the coast but not by much. Very dry air and
zonal mid level flow will keep rain chances at zero. Some of the
area rivers are forecast to fall below flood stage this period while
other should do so during the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves further offshore on Wednesday and some weak warm
advection develops pushing afternoon temperatures close to 70, some
5-ish degrees above climatology. We should then add a few degrees to
those numbers by Thursday as a mid level ridge over the GOMEX starts
to poke into the Carolinas. As this ridge builds slowly Friday into
Saturday mid 70s will be commonplace and nighttime lows will be on
the rise as surface dewpoints increase. There remains no chances of
rain in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue for the next 24 hours with northerly winds 10
kt or less.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Low pressure will move farther away from the
East Coast today as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Northerly winds 10-15 knots should prevail today and tonight,
finally diminishing Monday as the high reaches the eastern
Carolinas during the afternoon. Spectral wave data from the
Frying Pan Shoals buoy (41013) and the nearshore Wrightsville
Beach CORMP buoy (41110) show the presence of a 9-second swell
that is not being picked up by the Wavewatch or NWPS models.
I`ve manually adjusted wave height forecasts upward today
through Monday to account for this apparent backswell emanating
from the low/cold front combo 400-700 miles off the Southeast
Coast.

Monday night through Thursday...Winds about as light as they get
Monday night into early Tuesday due to high pressure building
overhead. In the absence of swell energy this will mean waves capped
at 2 ft. Later Tuesday as it begins to move offshore a south to
southwesterly flow will come to dominate while seas remain unchanged
since wind speeds remain so minimal. South winds will remain
Wednesday into Thursday and only in the 5-10kt range (though the sea
breeze will be gusty at times) eventually leading to 3 ft seas
returning late in the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM



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