Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 162320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
620 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Moisture from the Gulf states and a coastal trough offshore,
will bring rain to the area tonight, before moving off the
coast early Monday. Brief high pressure Monday and Monday
night, will give way to more rain Tuesday through early
Wednesday, as a warm front and cold front cross the region.
Much colder, and drier air will overspread the area late week
into the weekend, as high pressure of Arctic origin, falls out
of Canada and over the Carolinas.


At the surface, a coastal front is lingering just off the coast.
A  weak surface low pressure develops along this front in
response to a 500 mb shortwave trough in the subtropical jet
which will pass overhead tonight. This results in rains
continuing to move in from the southwest and then quickly move
off to the northeast by Monday with the last of the showers
moving off the southeast North Carolina coast before 11 AM. The
pattern matches well with the lift along 290K isentropic
surfaces of the GFS. Rainfall amount will be less than 0.25"
with the largest totals along +the coast.

With the coastal front and deep low-level moisture areas of fog
are  expected to develop later tonight and especially in areas
farther the coast.

The disturbance continues as the second in succession of
subtropical  short wave streams will cross the area. Rain
chances will increase overnight as the rain propagates from the
south to the north.

Low temperatures: Tonight - 43 to 47F inland to 48 to
49F at the  coast. Monday night - 46 to 48F inland to
49F to 51F at the beaches.

Monday`s High temperatures: Inland 62 to 64 F inland 60 to
62 at the beaches.


`Wet`, one way to succinctly describe this period, as a cold
front drops lazily south and east across SE NC and NE SC. Two
rain generation areas expected, first a Gulf disturbance ahead
of the cold front, linking-up with warm-frontal genesis Tuesday,
rain ending early evening. Late Tuesday night and Wednesday
batch 2, as frontal convergence slow transits the area, 1-1/2
inch possible ending Wednesday. No severe threats expected with
this system. Mild Tuesday, while Wednesday sees the onset of a
cooling trend.


`Colder and Drier` may be one way to characterize the extended
forecast period beginning Wednesday night, with max-T Thursday
through Saturday possibly below normal for middle February.
Agricultural or gardening interests should monitor the extent of
cold air forecasts, as below freezing temperatures are likely Friday
morning and Saturday morning, as markedly cold high pressure falls
from Arctic origins out of Canada, ECMWF and GFS both place the
chilly cyclone over top the Carolinas next week, suggesting a fair,
and seasonably cool weekend with a sub-freezing start.


Subtropical jet remains directed across the eastern Carolinas while
a weak trough resides near the coast. Area of -RA/-DZ will continue
to move generally west to east across the area this evening. CIGs
will continue to lower overnight with a likelihood of IFR conditions
developing at all terminals over the next few hours. CIGs will
improve during the late morning during Monday with a return to VFR

Extended Outlook...MVFR to possible IFR conditions expected,
especially Tue through Wed during an unsettled period with the
eventual passage of a cold front. VFR conditions expected by the
latter half of the week.


Tonight through Monday Night: A coastal front will remain over the
waters as a weak low-pressure center propagates along this front and
will bring rain over the coastal waters overnight and end by sunrise
south of Little River and before noon to the north.

Overnight the winds will be around 10 knots with wind directions
east to northeast. As the surface low develops to the south and
rides up along the coastal front, winds will increase to 15 knots
with a few 20-knot readings. These winds quickly subside as the low
moves north, and the wind direction becomes northeast and veer to
the southeast by late Monday night and speeds around 10 knots are

Seas are running 2 to 3 feet with slightly less between Cape Fear
and Little River. As the low moves across the waters overnight, seas
increase to 3 to 4 feet south Little River and 3 to 5 feet to the
north as the pressure gradient tightens as the surface-low lifts
north. Seas will fall to 2 to 4 feet throughout late Monday.

Very good marine conditions early Tuesday, light SE winds and a
gentle wave spectrum. A warm front will lift north over the waters
Tuesday, and marine visibility will likely deteriorate in rain and
mist during the day Tuesday, although winds will remain less than 13
kt. Frontal passage early Wednesday will mark the onset of worsening
marine conditions, as N-NE winds become strong, as massive and cold
Canadian high pressure falls toward the Carolinas. Wave bulletins
for this period show seas near 10 feet at 41013 Thursday and Friday.
The cold biting wind, strong chop, and large seas, will make this a
hazardous marine period, and Gale force gusts are possible given the
frigid and deep air mass rushing over the waters.





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