Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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858 FXUS62 KILM 110548 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1248 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and showers are expected ahead of a cold front that should move off the coast tonight. High pressure will build across the Carolinas from the north Tuesday and Wednesday, moving offshore Wednesday night. Low pressure could bring another chance of rain late Thursday, followed by new high pressure building eastward for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Lowered PoPs as radar and isentropic analysis indicate that there will be a lull in activity over the next few hours. Still expecting widespread shower activity around sunrise through the late morning hours. A few thunderstorms remain possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Clouds currently cover most of the East Coast as Gulf moisture is drawn northward between mid-upper ridge off the Southeast coast and an upper low over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the inland wedge from earlier today continues to weaken with coastal trough just off the coast. Light radar returns this afternoon are not making it to the ground as mid level dry air remains in place. Expect this dry air to erode after sunset, with light rain moving into western parts of the CWA through late evening. Rain chances continue to expand across the area overnight as several 500mb impulses move across from the west this evening into early Monday. Left exit region of 250mb jet will combine with the PVA to increase pops to 40-50% between early morning hours tomorrow and midday. Overall, rainfall totals will be between 0.1" and 0.25", though some hi-res guidance is showing isolated 0.75-1" may be possible through Monday evening. Isolated thunder possible Monday morning into afternoon hours, aided by dewpoints approaching 70F. Rain coverage will diminish from west to east midday-afternoon Monday. Cold front will be near or just west of I-95 Monday evening. Above normal temps with lows between 60 and 65 tonight and upper 70s Monday, though temps may end up a few degrees cooler along the coast if clouds and rain stick around a bit longer. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Lingering showers,mainly along the coast early Mon evening, will come to an end through Mon eve as dry air works its way into the area from the W-NW. Pcp water values up around 1.6 inches to start will drop through Mon night as winds veer to the N and cooler and drier air makes its way in behind the cold front. By Tues, it will be a different day with pcp water values down around a half inch and dewpoints dropping about 15 to 20 degrees. Expect lows to drop down to the mid 50s to around 60 close to the coast. Temps will only rebound to around 70 under bright sunshine and cooler northerly winds before dropping late day as better CAA comes into the evening with clear skies. CAA will bring temps down into the 40s with wind sheltered places possibly dropping into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and cool high pressure will extend down the eastern CONUS on Wed into early Thurs before another cold front reaches the area Thurs aftn/eve. Moisture tries to get drawn up from the Gulf, but do not get much of a return flow to bring it this far north. May instead see some weak isentropic lift inland to drive an increase in clouds and light pcp. For most of our local forecast area, we will see an increase in clouds and an uptick in pcp chances. Overall, front lacks moisture but may see some pcp Thurs aftn/eve. Should see a bit of CAA behind front as high pressure builds in behind front. GFS shows 850 temps dropping down from near 8c Thurs eve to 4c by Fri morning. Temps will basically remain near or slightly below normal Wed through Fri with a gradual warming into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Difficult forecast overnight. An inland moving coastal trough will maintain VFR CIGs along the coast. Brief MVFR will be possible in showers that move onshore, but the bulk of activity will arrive after 12Z. Showers and few embedded thunderstorms could bring MVFR between 12Z and its departure during the early afternoon. Inland, LIFR and VLIFR conditions are creeping eastward behind a shortwave which is slowly pushing a coastal trough eastward. Expect this to impact FLO over the next few hours. The arrival of elevated light showers could bring periodic mixing near the surface and briefly lift CIGs above the expected predominant IFR. Trickier at LBT where the coastal trough is closer. Expect VFR until around sunrise when IFR develops behind the initial stationary front. This is likely to arrive with a larger mass of showers which could complicate things with varying categories. VFR later this afternoon and this evening. Extended Outlook... There is a low potential for MVFR cloud ceilings Thursday night as wave of low pressure moves across the area. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Southerly winds 10-15 kts tonight turn southwesterly around 10 kts Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Seas linger in the 3-4 ft range tonight and tomorrow as SE 8-9 sec swell continues to dominate the local coastal waters. Rain chances over the waters increase around midnight tonight and continues through Monday afternoon, with isolated thunder possible. Monday night through Thursday... Winds will veer around as cold front makes it way through the waters Mon eve into Mon night. SW winds will shift around to the W-NW by midnight and come around to the north by Tues morning. N-NE flow will increase through Tues as high pressure builds in. This cool NE surge of winds will produce gusts up around 25 kts and will push seas up into SCA thresholds late Tues through Wed. Gradual improvement will come Wed night into Thurs. Seas will start out around 3 to 4 ft Mon night into Tues with an increase to 4 to 6 ft Tues night into Wed. Seas will be back down below SCA thresholds by Wed night, 3 to 5 ft and down to 3 to 4 ft Thurs. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...VAO SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...RGZ/VAO