Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 231555
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1155 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south of the area this morning. Cool and dry
high pressure will build in from the north this afternoon into
Thursday with below normal temperatures. The lingering front
offshore will move inland on Friday with increasing warmth and
chances of showers or thunderstorms increasing through the
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track; no updates required this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface cold front has pushed off the coast early this morning, and
remaining line of convection consists of mainly scattered light
showers. The front will continue to slide offshore, with showers
exiting the coast before sunrise. Center of high pressure will build
across the Mid-Atlantic region this morning, then move northeast,
while a surface ridge axis extends southwestward across the interior
Carolinas. As a result, northeast flow will persist across the
forecast area, holding max temperatures today and Thursday in the
lower to mid 80s, which is 4-7 degrees below normal. Guidance
indicate lows tonight dipping to around 60 inland to mid 60s
beaches, which is similarly well below normal. Moisture profiles
reveal dry air above 800 mb, so once the low clouds mix out early
today, expect partly to mostly sunny skies through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak wedge/CAD setup breaks down Thu night as a coastal
trough/warm front starts shifting into the area, bringing with
it increasing chances for rain. Capped PoPs at 40% for now as
the timing may be a bit delayed and coverage scattered at best,
but regardless expecting a good chance of shras/tstms for daytime
Fri (50% PoPs everywhere) as a ribbon of higher deep-layer
moisture pivots into the area. Mainly light rain expected with
severe wx not anticipated. Temps slightly below normal for late
June...highs in the low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period will feature fairly normal climatological
conditions across the Carolinas. Expect high temps in the upr
80s to lwr 90s each day with low temps in the upr 60s to lwr
70s. Look for typical diurnal rain chances (chance range during
the day and low PoPs at night), with continuous weak onshore
flow allowing decent moisture in place alongside marginal
forcing for ascent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unseasonably cool tonight with light northeast flow. No fog
expected. Thursday, increasing high clouds at the end of the
forecast period with continued northeast flow.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Friday morning. Convective
showers and thunderstorms may return Friday through Sunday as
the front moves back onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday: The pressure gradient between frontal
boundary just offshore and surface ridge inland is expected to
produce sustained NE winds of 20 kts with frequent gusts to 25
kts north of Little River Inlet, developing mid-morning today.
This will require a Small Craft Advisory which will likely
remain in place into the evening. Winds south of Little River
Inlet are expected to remain in a 15-20 kt range, although gusts
of 20 to 25 kts can be expected today. Winds will be slow to
subside, likely remaining in a 15-20 kt range Wednesday night
before diminishing to 10-15 kts Thursday.

Thursday Night Through Sunday: Sub-SCA conditions continue for
the duration of this timeframe with sfc high pressure positioned
well off to the NE and continuous weak onshore flow over the
area. Expect 10-15 kt winds and 2-4 ft seas, which includes two
swell components...a SE 7-8 second period component and a ESE
12-13 second period component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MAS/CRM


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