Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210905
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
405 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
Thursday and Friday will be milder ahead of a cold front that
will bring some rain. Seasonable weekend weather will then give
way to another warmup starting Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level disturbance moving farther offshore through today
as ridge builds up through the Southeast. A few clouds were
getting thrown back onshore from this low, but for the most
part, clear skies will persist with plenty of sunshine across
the area today. After a cool start today, temps will rebound to
near 60 this afternoon. Winds will lighten later today as high
pressure shifts closer overhead. Should see winds turn a bit
more onshore along the coast later this afternoon as temps warm.

Elongated high stretching up the east coast will shift offshore
overnight into early Thurs. Therefore expect very light to calm
winds. There may be a bit of cirrus spilling over the ridge,
but should see better radiational cooling across the area
tonight with one last cold night down in the 30s as winds will
not pick up until after daybreak Thurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sunny and warm for most of Thursday. Clouds increase Thursday
evening and southwest winds begin to increase ahead of a cold
front. Showers approach the area Thursday night with the front.
Low levels will take some time to saturate, so widespread
showers are unlikely to contribute much, if any, QPF. Mild
overnight due to clouds and rain, lows in the low 50s.

Moisture increases early Friday with shower activity expanding
across much of the area. The best chance for showers will be
Friday morning and early Friday afternoon. Dry air advection
late Friday will bring rapid clearing during the late afternoon
and evening. Breezy and cooler with lows in the low 40s and
upper 30s on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shortwave following the cold front will bring cloud cover on
Saturday. Dry air ahead of the wave is likely to keep shower
chances near zero, but isolated virga or a brief sprinkle are
possible. Cool with highs in the upper 50s.

Still cool on Sunday, but models continue to suggest that this
will be a brief cooldown with rapid warming expected during the
early portion of next week. Afternoon highs are likely to top
out in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with SKC through most of the period. North-
northeast winds around 5 knots inland and 5 to 10 knots at the
coast will increase after daybreak to 10 to 12 knots and then
diminish later in the day. May see a few clouds thrown onshore
from system well offshore. Winds will keep any fog at bay this
morning.

Extended Outlook... There is a moderate potential of MVFR
ceilings and visibility plus a low potential for IFR ceilings
late Thursday night into Friday as a cold front slides through
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Gusty N-NE winds up to 25 kts will persist
into this morning between between low pressure well offshore and
high pressure ridging up across the east coast. This persistent
northerly push has raised seas in the outer waters up to 6 ft.
The combination of gusts to 25 and seas up to 6 ft prompted a
Small Craft Advisory through today for the northern 2 zones.

Winds will diminish later today as high pressure shifts closer
overhead and begins to shift offshore by Thurs morning.
Therefore should see SCA conditions end by late this afternoon
with seas diminishing to under 6 ft. Southern waters were
ranging from 2 to 5 ft. Backswell from the exiting system will
keep seas in the 2 to 5 ft range across the waters with greatest
seas in the outer waters out near 20 nm from Cape Fear
northward.

Thursday through Sunday Night... Winds become southerly on
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. SCA conditions are
likely to develop overnight and peak during the day on Friday. A
few gale force gusts are possible on the outer limits of the
nearshore waters late Friday and Friday evening. Wind driven
seas will build up to 6-8 feet on Friday and gradually decrease
overnight. Improvement on Saturday and Sunday as high pressure
builds across the southeastern US.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/21


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