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000
FXUS62 KILM 040728
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
328 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isaias has exited the region and impacts from the storm will
continue to diminish this morning. Warm and humid conditions will
provide an elevated chance for afternoon thunderstorms each day
into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Hurricane Isaias continues to move rapidly away from the area
as the center has moved to near Kinston. The rain with Isabel is
quickly moving out, and with the next package from NHC will
remove the Flash Flood Watch. Expect other warnings to be
dropped at the 5 AM NHC forecast package.

A cold front will shift to the coast by Wednesday. This front will
bring a good chance of thunderstorms to the forecast area. Only a
slight chance of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s, and on Wednesday,
they will be around 90. Lows Tuesday night will be in the middle 70s
inland to the upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep southwesterly flow will continue as an upper-level trough sits
over the central and eastern portion of the CONUS this week.
Weak shortwave energy will rotate around the apex of the trough
and assist with afternoon thunderstorm development on Thursday.
Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday night are likely to
remain warmer than normal due to the humid and partly or mostly
cloudy conditions expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, the upper-level trough will flatten and approach the area
as a weak frontal boundary. Unsettled conditions are likely to
continue with afternoon peak heating. Very little change expected on
Saturday with the frontal boundary morphing into a Piedmont trough.
Upper-level flow begins to flatten on Sunday with weak ridging
attempting to build into the area early next week. Overall, rain
chances will remain above typical afternoon convection chances
through the weekend. Near normal temperatures will begin to increase
toward the end of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Western side of the area is starting to clear back into VFR at
the 06Z TAF issuance. The eye of Isaias is currently located
over Pender County, and will continue to move NNE out of the
area. Conditions at KCRE, KMYR, and parts of the Cape Fear
region are still in MVFR/IFR, but that will be improving over
the next few hours as the last rain bands move through. Gusts
should continue along the coast until the late morning hours.
Sunny skies and scattered clouds will prevail from that point
on, allowing for a more permanent VFR trend throughout the rest
of the period.

Extended Outlook...A trough pattern enters the area and brings
typical summertime conditions for the area midweek, including
the chances for afternoon convection and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As Isaias moves away from the coastal waters, the offshore wind is
being established. The seas are diminishing, and a small craft
advisory is in effect for waters south of Little River Inlet. Once
the Hurricane Warnings north of Little River Inlet is dropped a
Small Craft Advisory will be issued. Currently, the seas off
Wrightsville Beach are now down to 9 feet, and Frying Pan Shoals
Buoy is down to 14 feet.

Calm winds in a weak gradient field will make for a benign
weather pattern for mariners this week. Seas will generally be
2-3 feet with no significant swell likely. The only notable
threat for boaters will be the elevated thunderstorm chances
each day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Moderate Flooding is occurring downtown as water levels hit almost 9
feet earlier tonight. The river continues to drop but an incoming
tide will bring the river back above 6 feet so will continue the
coastal flood downtown until noon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ106-108.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for NCZ107.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ110.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...21/31
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...31