Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031542
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
1042 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a
soaking rain to the Carolinas today. A drying trend is expected
tonight into Thursday. A dry cold front will bring cooler
weather Friday into the weekend. A low pressure system is
expected to pass south of the area this weekend, but may bring
some clouds and possibly some rain into South Carolina.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late morning update: From radar trends, precip is quickly
coming to an end across much of the area. Recent observations
are only reporting light showers and/or drizzle, mainly along
coastal areas. Updated temperatures and dewpoints with currents
obs as well as increased max temperatures by a degree. Clearing
of cloud cover looks to be quicker than originally expected so
could see rapidly warming temperatures by mid- day/early
afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the current
forecast.

Compact, potent and progressive mid-level s/w trof is currently
over GA. Its associated sfc low, taking shape just off the GA
coast, will both move in tandem toward the ENE today. This track
keeps the intensifying sfc low just south and east of the FA as
it moves well offshore, ESE of the Carolinas by sunset. Expect
mainly light to moderate stratiform rain as the FA will remain
in the cold sector of this system. The moderate rainfall will
generally fall south of a line extending from Wilmington NC to
Hartsville SC. North of this line...QPF will range from 0.25 to
0.50 inches. South of this line...0.50 to 1.25 inches, the high
end of this range occurring across Georgetown and Williamsburg
Counties SC. The rain should end from west to east by mid-
afternoon with the back edge of the cloud line retreating off
the coast by early this evening. Max Temps today will run
slightly colder than consensus MOS Guidance with tonights lows
at or a degree or 2 lower than consensus MOS.

For Thu, amplified troffing aloft will extend across the FA
from the north, with the upper trof axis just off the Carolina
Coasts. WNW-NW downslope trajectory to the flow aloft and
minimal moisture thru the atm column will result in mainly
sunny skies for Thu. Max temps will run a bit hier than MOS
consensus, with widespread 60s for highs being fcst which is
near normal for this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High
pressure will build down behind dry cold front Thurs night into
Fri. Deep NW flow will advect cool and dry air into the area
with temps holding below 60 for highs on Fri into the weekend.
Low pressure riding around the base of deep mid to upper trough
will move across the Florida Peninsula Fri night into Sat. Mid
to high level moisture will increase Fri night with a clouds
thickening down to 10k ft by morning. Overall expect a dry and
slightly cooler forecast Fri with increasing clouds Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure riding around the base of deep mid to upper trough
will move across the Florida Peninsula Fri night into Sat. This
system will remain south of area but may spread some clouds and
possibly some pcp far enough north to affect local forecast
area. Expect mainly thickening mid to upper level clouds on
Saturday with pcp remaining well south, for the most part, but
could reach into portions of SC Sat aftn. Soundings show
moisture working its way down close to 5 to 6k ft but keep low
levels dry in the lower levels down to the sfc. Column dries out
again Sat night into Sun with deep northerly winds as high
pressure builds in behind departing low early next week. Air
mass will modify and warm Mon into Tues as the center of the
high migrates across the Southeast, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. Ridging up through the east coast and southerly return
flow will bring temps back up above normal, well into the 60s.
Coolest nights will be Sat and Sun with overnight lows down near
or below freezing in many spots.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR to IFR ceilings have persisted at all the terminals this
morning. Improvements over the next few hours are expected.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions Wed night through Sun with
high pressure dominating from the NW thru N. Exception will be
Sat, with the potential for brief flight restrictions due to
passage of an area of low pressure south and east of NC and SC.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...
SCA conditions to persist today into this evening due to gusty
NE backing to N winds, and risen seas. This a result of the sfc
low pressure intensifying once it moves off the GA Coast early
this morning. This low will track ENE to well offshore this
aftn and evening, and staying just south and east of the area
waters. This compact low will be just a memory by daybreak Thu,
with a weakened sfc pg having taking it`s place tonight. Winds
and seas will peak today then both diminish/subside below SCA
thresholds tonight and further drop respectively during Thu as
an offshore NW wind dominates. Expect vsby to reduce to 1 to 3
nm in light to moderate stratiform rain thru today, ending by
early evening at the latest.

Thursday night through Sunday...
High pressure will build down behind a dry cold front Thurs
night into Fri. Should see seas spike up a bit in this northerly
surge into early Fri, but latest guidance shows conditions
remaining below SCA thresholds. Winds become a lighter and more
variable Fri night into Sat with seas dropping from 3 to 4 ft
early Fri down less than 3 ft into the weekend. Overall, winds
will hold in a northerly direction with another slight increase
as low pressure skirts by to the south Sat night into Sun. Seas
may bump up once again early Sun in northerly flow on back end
of low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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