Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
000
FXUS62 KILM 151057
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
657 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures will continue Friday as high
pressure remains offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday evening as a cold front approaches. Another cold
front will move through the area Sunday night. Dry and much colder
air will build in behind an even stronger front Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WAA around offshore high pressure will maintain well above normal
temperatures again today. Highs will reach 80F or so early afternoon
before cloud coverage increases from the west. Wind gusts ~25mph
expected late this morning into early afternoon. A long stretch of
convection currently extends from southern Arkansas, across central
TN, and into West Virginia, and continues to move westward. Guidance
shows this band of convection weakening considerably as it crosses
the Appalachians late morning/midday. Will see scattered showers
move across this afternoon, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
with only meager instability to work with and decent low level dry
air to overcome.
Dewpoints increase to 60+F late this afternoon into this evening
with the increased return flow ahead of an approaching cold front
from the north. PVA aloft with continued decent PWATs will bring
another chance of rain this evening into overnight hours. Overall
expect rainfall totals to be spotty through Saturday morning, with
some locations possibly measuring 0.25-0.5" (likely in NE SC), while
others may miss out completely. Lows tonight around 60F with fog
and/or low stratus developing overnight. Cold front slowly drops
south into the area late tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak mid/upper shortwave will push off the coast Saturday morning.
The associated surface cold front will parallel the flow aloft, and
stall near Cape Fear before lifting north Saturday night. Time-
height cross sections show mid-level drying Saturday, however
moisture lingering below 800 mb may lead to a few showers hanging
around through the day.
Deep SW flow through the column Sunday will maintain above normal
temps, with highs once again reaching solidly into the mid/upper
70s away from the immediate coast. Should see increasing clouds
through the day as moisture streams in from the SW. Deepest
moisture and forcing will stream across the southern Gulf coast
states and off the Carolina coast associated with a series of weak
upper disturbances. This will lead to potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Sunday night ahead of
a cold front, with highest chances across the southern and coastal
CWA. Am favoring the ECMWF at this time, with a solution in
between the NAM (more inland) and GFS (more off the coast).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will sweep across the area early Monday as the upper
trough axis drops across the Appalachians and surface high pressure
builds in. Height falls Monday along with lingering moisture below
700 mb may lead to a significant cumulus field and potential for widely
scattered showers during the afternoon. Will tweak PoPs up just a
bit Monday afternoon but keep them below 15% for now. 850 mb temps
bottom out Monday night and lows will fall into the mid/upper 30s most
areas. Gusty NW winds will keep the boundary layer well mixed. Highs
Tuesday unlikely to make it out of the 50s. Although 850 mb temps
will be moderating by Tuesday night, light winds and clear skies will
allow temps to fall into the upper 30s to around 40...and potentially
cooler in the typical cold spots. Dewpoints may still be too low for
frost, but will have to be monitored. Modest mid-level ridging will
push temps back to or slightly above climo for Wed-Thu, with no
significant chance for rain anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through at least 4Z tonight. A band of
convection will approach our area this afternoon, weakening as
the storms cross the Appalachians. Scattered showers expected
from west to east post 19z, with another band developing after
0z. Instability will be meager, so only expecting isolated
thunderstorms. Gusty southwest winds develop by late morning,
with gusts to 20-25 kts possible, and continuing into late
afternoon. MVFR, potentially IFR, stratus may develop as early
as 4z from the southwest ahead of an approaching front, and
restrictions may linger into midday Saturday as front slows
down across the area.
Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions may linger into midday
Saturday, followed by VFR late Saturday through Sunday. Sub-VFR
conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front.
VFR for the start of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Southwest winds and seas will be increasing during
the day today as a cold front approaches the area from the north. By
this afternoon, expect southwest winds sustained 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 25kt and seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas remain
slightly elevated this evening before slowly weakening tonight as
the aforementioned front slowly drops south into the area late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Rain chances over the local coastal
waters increase early this evening into overnight hours with a
chance of thunder.
Saturday through Tuesday: A cold front is expected to be bisecting
the waters near Cape Fear Saturday morning, and lingering through
the day before lifting north Saturday night. Winds on the order of
10 kt will become WSW Saturday night south of the lifting front,
then SW Sunday ahead of another cold front. Rain chances will also
be on the rise late Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the front,
which will make its way to the coast early Monday morning. The
pressure gradient will strengthen Monday and especially Monday night
as high pressure builds in from the west, and Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop, although seas will be limited
by an offshore trajectory. The gradient will weaken on Tuesday,
and winds will diminish.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-023-
024-032.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO/CRM