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000
FXUS62 KILM 030527
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1227 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue through
Sunday. A cold front will sweep this moisture offshore Sunday
night. Cooler and drier weather is expected for Monday into
Tuesday, then turning colder Wednesday and Thursday behind a
second cold front. High pressure should reach the Carolinas by
Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Based on webcam imagery from Southport, a marine Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued through 6 AM for the Brunswick County
coastal waters (Cape Fear to Little River Inlet). High res
models also paint this strip of nearshore ocean water as having
the worst visibility over the next few hours due to the
juxtaposition of cool nearshore SSTs and high dewpoints/low
dewpoint depressions. Patchy fog has been added for all other
inland sites.

Forecast remains on track with scattered showers tracking
northeastward, bringing a few to several hundredths of an inch
in accumulation. Expect overall coverage to decrease over the
next several hours and have reflected this with a general
downward trend in PoPs. Patchy fog may develop in the moist
low-level environment and some sea fog may scrape the coastline
in spots. Winds will increase towards dawn as a cold front
approaches, helping to mix out any fog early in the day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will approach the area from the west through the
period, bringing a chance for showers.  However, it looks like the
best upper support and instability will be south and east of the
area so rainfall amounts should be light.  Lows tonight should fall
to the lower 60s with highs Sunday in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will track off to New England Sun night dragging a
cold front through the area and offshore. A deeper westerly flow
will develop with plenty of drier air moving in through the low
to mid levels initially. Some higher level moisture will hang
around into Monday, but soundings show a considerable dry layer
up to 16 to 18k or so. Pcp water values drop to less than a
quarter of an inch by Mon morning. Cooler air will start to
advect in Sun night as the front moves offshore, but deeper
drying and cooling will come with passage of shortwave late
Monday. Temps will drop down near 50 by Mon morning and will
mainly stay in the 60s on Mon for highs in continued CAA. Mon
night will completely clear out with temps dropping down near
40 for lows most places. Tues will continue dry and cool with
temps right near normal with highs near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and cool weather will continue, but a shortwave will dig
down pushing a cold front eastward through the area Tues eve
into Wed morning. May see some passing mainly mid to high clouds
late Tues into Wed with passing of cold front and shortwave.
This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold and dry air as high
pressure builds in from the west Wed into Thurs. Temps will
probably be in the mid 50s for highs Wed and Thurs under sunny
skies with overnight lows down near freezing or below in spots.
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast reaching off the
coast by Fri afternoon. This will begin a warming trend as winds
come around to the SW bringing high temps back into the 60s Fri
into the weekend. Overall, not expecting any pcp through the
week with a cool start and warming into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A patchwork of low stratus and at least two higher cloud layers
will make aviation forecasts difficult this morning. Winds are
currently quite light which has allowed low stratus and fog to
develop from the two Myrtle Beach airports (CRE and MYR) inland
across Lumberton (LBT) and Florence (FLO). Low level winds will
veer southwesterly and increase between 09z-10z which should
help scour out the low clouds and fog first across South
Carolina and LBT, finally clearing out conditions at ILM closer
to daybreak, 12z. Confidence on precise timing is low, although
confidence on the overall synoptic pattern is somewhat higher.

After 12z, generally VFR conditions will develop along the
coast. Inland there is a moderate potential for MVFR ceilings
and the potential development of convective showers during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. This activity may move
eastward toward CRE and MYR during the mid afternoon hours. A
surface cold front will sweep offshore during the evening
bringing dry air and VFR conditions throughout.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected to dominate the
extended period. Another cold front is forecast to slide
through early Wednesday and low confidence exists for MVFR cigs
to accompany or follow this frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Light S winds tonight will become SW at 10 to
15 KT Sunday with higher gusts. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT.

Sunday night through Thursday...Winds will veer around from SW
to W late Sun into Mon as passing cold front moves farther
offshore. Gusty W to NW winds will develop late Mon as deeper
drier and cooler air moves over waters. Seas on a downward trend
initially with help of offshore flow will kick up a bit late
Mon in increasing winds, but overall expect seas in the 2 to 4
ft range through most of the early to midweek period. Another
cold front will move through Tues night with winds backing a bit
to the west ahead of it and increasing up to 15 to 20 kts
behind it Wed into Wed night. This could produce brief small
craft advisory conditions late Wed before diminishing in
subsiding winds as they back around with high pressure tracking
across the Southeast on Thurs.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA/ABW
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/31