Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
525 FXUS62 KILM 080336 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1136 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Somewhat drier conditions continue through Tuesday until more unsettled weather comes into play Wednesday through Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly by the weekend, but daily shower and thunderstorm trends will still be the theme. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summertime pattern back in full force this afternoon with high pressure in place basically at all levels. There could still be some meandering convection this afternoon with the latest satellite showing the coast and points well inland with the best chances. After a quiet night similar conditions are expected Tuesday with slightly more convection and warming temperatures/dewpoints. It seems reasonable to expect a heat advisory as well mainly inland but will hold off issuing the headline today via inter office collaboration. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A weak mid-level trough in the Ohio River Valley gradually drops southeastward towards the mid-Atlantic region. Subsidence inversion decreases as the weak ridge exits stage right. This sets the scene for more convective activity Wednesday afternoon. There is some subtle forcing aloft that tries to push ahead of the aforementioned trough, but outside of that, there isn`t much synoptic forcing in play. Seabreeze and Piedmont trough will be the focus for shower and storm ignition in the afternoon. In particular, the Piedmont trough looks slightly stronger than the previous day, and SBCAPE lingers in the 2500-3000 J/kg range. Throw in precipitable water values of 2.00- 2.10", and now severe weather may come into play, with a "Marginal risk" (threat level 1/5) in place along the I-95 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Storms will gradually decrease after sunset. Highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Heat indices won`t have a problem reaching the triple digits again, but generally remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria (105F for 2+ hours). Lows each night in the low-to-mid 70s inland, upper 70s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Similar stories in place Thursday and Friday. Mid-level trough lingers, if not dropping further southward into the Piedmont region. This only supplies some extra help for storms in the afternoon Thursday and Friday. Given the plentiful instability in the atmosphere, storms are likely to have lots of lightning in them. Temperatures remain about in the same place. Weak trough pattern finally lifts northeastward and offshore by Saturday morning, where weak ridging returns. No changes in the temperature trends. Shower and thunderstorm chances come down slightly, due to a little more subsidence in place. However, with stout instability and moisture still in place, scattered showers and storms in the afternoon are still expected all weekend long. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with SW winds abating overnight, with an exception of a thin strip of IFR stratus extending from KCRE through coastal Brunswick that is expected to last at least a couple more hours. Thunderstorm coverage Tuesday worthy of a PROB30 at all terminals. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible Wednesday through Friday due to daytime convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Very typical marine conditions expected over the next day or so. South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots with significant seas of 2-4 feet. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Winds are locked in out of the southwest at 10-15 kts, with occasional gusts up to 18-19 kts. Seas fluctuate a bit between 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft. Semi-permanent southeasterly swell at 8-9 seconds persists, in between wind chop. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK/IGB