Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 300148
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled across the area will dissipate on Thursday
bringing slightly lower coverage of storms. Normal heat,
humidity, and thunderstorm coverage returns Friday for the next
several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
The main update with the latest forecast was to remove POPs from
all areas based on radar trends and HRRR for the overnight
hours. Could see areas of fog develop, especially across
portions of the Pee Dee region. Some debris cloudiness from
upstream convection could limit the areal extent of any fog
development.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slow moving front in the area, convective boundaries, and an
approaching mid level short wave have led to increasing coverage of
showers and tstms across the area this afternoon, esp. over SC where
more concentrated precip is occurring. Very little shear so svr
threat is minimal, though with very slow storm motions and deep
moisture in place, an isolated flooding concern is there for the
next few hours. Ongoing drought will mitigate things but poor
drainage/low lying areas may see some issues if any cells end up in
the wrong place. Dampening mid level wave should be near the coast
by 00z, so will eventually begin to see some NVA. Some of the
guidance showing a few lingering showers through early evening, but
expect things to diminish steadily after 00z overall. Other concern
tonight is fog potential with light winds and today`s rain. Some
question on how much clearing we`ll see but have continued to
include some fog wording esp. away from immediate coast.

Thursday should see less precip coverage than today as slow moving
front becomes diffuse and mid level ridging attempts to build.
Enough moisture for widely scattered showers/tstms esp. over our SC
zones where dewpoints will be a littler higher and some weak low lvl
convergence expected. Have 30-40 pops roughly between Georgetown to
Darlington counties and and generally 20-30 elsewhere. Otherwise a
little warmer tomorrow in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With one closed isopleth remaining overhead at 500mb Thursday night
paired with the deep layer moisture to our south it looks like the
area is in for a rain-free night with seasonable temperatures. The
one exception to rain-free conditions is the fact that one or two
showers may advect ashore in the light onshore flow. We lose the
suppressing action of the ridge on Friday and diurnal thunderstorms
may become scattered to widespread as PW values remain so high. The
unsettled weather may persist overnight Friday as a slow moving
shortwave traverses the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very weak flow at all levels on Saturday, as is usually the case as
we head into July. Another fairly active afternoon may be in the
offering as there is still some semblance of shortwave energy
overhead, which is less the norm for the time of year. A (very)
slight decrease in convective coverage is slated for Sunday as mid
level heights rebound slightly. Uncertainty creeps into the latter
part of the long term. Previous thinking was that typical July
temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm coverage was expected. Model
solutions, most notably the GFS that push a boundary this far south
are both a novel idea as well as not climatologically favored.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 22Z, the front continues to linger in our northern CWA,
roughly located through KLBT and KSUT with most convection
remaining along it. Several outflow boundaries could ignite
short-lived isolated storms with the best chances at KLBT
through 1Z and to a lesser extent KILM. During this time
convection should become more stratiform due to loss of daytime
heating before fizzling out. The next point of concern is
potential MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs overnight due to possible fog
and low stratus. Confidence is highest at KFLO from 9Z-12Z.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR for Thu as a weak front
dissipates and weak high pressure takes over just east of the
OBX. A little better chances for afternoon/early evening showers
and tstms as we move into and through the weekend may lead to
brief restrictions. Will also need to watch for early morning
low clouds/fog as summertime pattern develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Wind directions have been a little all over the
place today but have trended mostly E to ESE 5-10kts outside of
showers. An enhancement in NE winds just off the coast north of Cape
Fear this morning has eased. Weak front in the area will dissipate
through tomorrow, allowing high pressure just east of the Outer
Banks to take over. Winds will briefly trend NE to E again into
early Thursday morning while staying at or below 10kts, before
becoming SE again through the afternoon. Some typical enhancements
expected near the coast with sea breeze. Seas around 2ft through
tonight will pick up slightly to 2 to 3ft through tomorrow, as a
modest increase in SE 7-9s trade swell is realized and mixes with
small local wind generated waves in the 4-5s band.

Thursday night through Monday... Weak high pressure centered off
NC/VA early in the period bringing a light SE flow locally as well
as a minor swell component that though weak should overshadow the
diminutive wind chop. By Saturday the wave components become closer
to equal in height as we increase wind speed into the 10-15kt range.
South to SW winds will remain in place for the rest of the period
keeping the two wave groups fairly similar.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM


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