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249
FXUS62 KILM 151722
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
122 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cool mornings and mild afternoons,
with fair skies this weekend. A warming trend sets up for next
week as the high is centered offshore and onshore flow develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes coming down the track in the mid-morning forecast
update. Nice day ahead with sunny skies, high temperatures in
the mid-to-upper 70s, and a few cumulus clouds popping up later
in the day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level disturbance off the Mid-Atlantic coast will move
east and farther away from the Carolinas today. This will allow
northwest mid & upper level flow to continue over the Carolinas
ahead of a ridge axis developing across the Plains. Surface
high pressure will move east across the Mid Atlantic states
today, then offshore tonight. 1000-500 mb thicknesses stuck in
the 540s yesterday should rise into the 550s today, then
approach 560 dm by Sunday afternoon, still below normal but
modifying warmer with time.

Using observed MOS biases over the past two days a guide,
forecast highs today range from the upper 70s inland down to the
low-mid 70s at the beaches. And much like yesterday, only a few
cumulus are expected to develop at the top of a deep and well-
mixed boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s.

Good radiational cooling again tonight means forecast lows will
be at the low end of the MOS range, upper 40s to lower 50s
except a little warmer on the beaches. Mid and upper level
moisture will begin to increase late tonight into Sunday, but
any increase in cloud cover should be muted given increasing
ridging aloft. With continued mostly sunny skies on Sunday highs
should approach 80 inland with mid 70s on the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With surface high pressure centered offshore to the northeast,
maintained dry forecast in the short term with partly cloudy
skies as a weak upper shortwave passes to the north late Monday.
Below normal temps Monday morning in the mid 50s will warm to
near to slightly below normal for Monday afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Predominantly dry conditions continue through next week, which
means unfortunately no end in sight to our current drought
conditions. Slight rain chances Tuesday afternoon as
precipitable water values increase marginally and a weakness
develops in surface ridging, though don`t see anything more than
very isolated showers developing. Forecasted instability is
limited Tuesday but have low thunderstorm chances in the
forecast to remain consistent with neighboring offices. Late
Tuesday, strong high pressure centered overhead develops in the
mid and upper levels, and guidance has it pretty much not moving
through Friday. Center of surface high pressure offshore
migrates slowly southward to east of the area by late week.
Strong ridging will keep forecast dry Wednesday through Thursday
due to very dry air aloft, with fog possible each morning as
onshore low level winds keep dewpoints fair. High temps will
slowly increase throughout the week with lows remaining near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. Late afternoon sea
breeze will result in easterly winds developing along the coast.
Occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt along the coast will be possible
through the afternoon with light winds returning by early
evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...High pressure centered over West Virginia
should move eastward today and off the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight and Sunday. Northeast winds continue across the Carolina
coastal waters this morning, but with significantly less
velocity than we saw Thursday or Friday mornings. Wind
directions should veer more easterly this afternoon as a
seabreeze develops. The same should occur again Sunday with
winds veering southeasterly during the afternoon. Wind speeds
should remain 15 knots or less, with seas averaging 2-4 feet in
a 7-second easterly swell.

Sunday Night through Wednesday...Benign marine conditions
continue through early next week with high pressure centered
offshore to the northeast. Winds predominantly out of the east
10 kts or less Sunday night through Wednesday. Seas 2-3 ft
through mid-week as a 8 sec E swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...TRA/VAO