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000
FXUS62 KILM 271050
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
The remnants of Zeta will move across the southern Appalachians
Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area early Friday
bringing scattered showers. Cooler and drier weather will result on
Saturday with a slight chance of showers returning on Sunday ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure overhead brings dry weather and mostly to partly
cloudy skies today and Wednesday with chances for overnight and
early morning fog.  Some fog can be dense at times, especially in
low lying areas and near channels of rivers and streams.  Afternoon
highs gradually warm into Wednesday with readings in the upper 70s
to near 80, which is just above average for late October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Zeta is expected to make landfall late Wednesday and approach the
southern Appalachians as a remnant low on Thursday. Precip should
remain well west of the area along with any associated instability
as the low tracks along the spine of the NC mountains and eastward
north of the NC/VA border. Southerly winds around 15-20 knots and
the potential for a few isolated showers are possible on Thursday
afternoon with the system in our regional vicinity. A cold front
over the southern US will follow the remnant low late Thursday and
Thursday night. The area is likely to see breezy winds, scattered
showers, and a slight chance of a thunderstorm with warm moist air
ahead of the front priming the atmosphere with elevated weak
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will push through the area early Friday with lingering
showers quickly coming to an end after sunrise. Not much change with
forecasted high temperatures other than a slight upward nudge as the
front looks to by delayed slightly. Drier and cooler air will flood
into the area on Saturday with highs in the low and mid 60s. On
Sunday an upper trough and SFC frontal boundary will dive
southeastward across the central US. The front may bring a few
isolated showers with the development of a weak coastal trough.
Front pushes through late Sunday and early Monday with additional
dry and cold air advection rushing in behind the front. Highs will
remain below normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visibilities vary widely this morning, mainly due to a MVFR stratocu
deck that has kept visibilities up along the coast. ILM may go
briefly IFR through 13Z. Little to no gradient today with light
winds. Fog/stratus return again tonight.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR through Wed with
possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from
ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri, expect Zeta
remnants to push across the Carolinas followed by a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Wednesday... Seas around 2 feet today and
Wednesday with swell diminishing in strength from Epsilon in the
north Atlantic from the northeast and east between 6 and 10
seconds. Another wave train from the south/southeast around 8
seconds expected for the next 36 hours. Otherwise benign weather
for the coastal waters with variable winds at or below 10 kts.

Wednesday Night through Saturday... Hurricane Zeta will likely make
landfall on the Gulf Coast Wednesday, then should rapidly weaken its
moves inland across the Deep South. The remnants of Zeta will move
from the Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday
and Thursday Night, followed closely by a cold front that should
push off the Carolina coast Friday morning. Light onshore winds
Wednesday will veer southerly by Thursday, increasing to 20-30 knots
by Thursday evening. Small Craft Conditions are likely to develop
late Thursday with seas building to 5-7+ feet. Winds will then
abruptly shift northwesterly as the front blows offshore Friday
morning. North to northeast winds will remain elevated through
Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possibly continuing
due to winds and seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...TRA/MCK/21