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542
FXUS62 KILM 151858
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
258 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our north will bring a long stretch of
seasonable and rain-free weather. As the high moves offshore on
Saturday winds turn to the south bringing warm and more humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows a broad ridge of high pressure across
the eastern U.S., with the center of it located in the eastern
portion of the Ohio River Valley. This high will shift ESE, keeping
the area dry once again through the near term forecast period. MOS
guidance has continued to undershoot the low temperatures, and
tonight looks to be another good radiational cooling night, though
it should not be as cool as the night before. Overall, the beaches
should drop down into the mid 50s, with areas along and
north/northwest of I-95 hitting the lower 50s. The Cape Fear region
could dip down into the upper 40s, with the typical cold spots in
southeastern NC bottoming out in the low-to-mid 40s.

The coastal Carolinas finally break the NNE flow that has been
plaguing the area lately. High pressure starts to push offshore, and
the winds kick around to the east and eventually to the southeast.
This starts a warming trend, with high temperatures pushing into the
upper 70s to near 80. However, this is still below normal for mid-
May. The temperature gradient between land and water is enough to
kick up a seabreeze Sunday afternoon, so a few gusts up to 15-20 mph
for the beaches. Winds calm by sunset, and lows are warmer this
time, generally in the mid 50s. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak shortwave energy traversing the area on Monday while a
weakening front drops south across the area. Models are not too
excited about precipitation prospects and so the forecast remains
rain-free but would not be surprised to see the introduction of
slight chance POPs in future forecasts. The afternoon will wind up
seasonably warm as will the nighttime lows despite a possible late
night increase in cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Omega block setting up for much of the upcoming week likely to
worsen the drought conditions by providing a strong subsidence
capping inversion. Sometimes this pattern can foster above normal
temperatures but the center of the high remains to our north keeping
temperatures quite seasonable as well as preventing dewpoints from
spiking much. This appears to change on Saturday as the high moves
offshore and wind turns more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. Late afternoon sea
breeze will result in easterly winds developing along the coast.
Occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt along the coast will be possible
through the afternoon with light winds returning by early
evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday Night...Winds currently out of the east at 10kts
decrease to 5-10kts and become more variable overnight. As high
pressure moves offshore, return flow veers the wind to the southeast
by Sunday morning, and sustained winds return to 10kts with not much
in the way of gusts. Seas remain consistent throughout the period,
with 1-2ft waves at the coast, and 2-3ft seas possible out 20nm from
the beaches. In spite of the more tame wave heights at the coast,
the ESE swell is enough to cause a moderate risk of rip currents for
the east-facing beaches.

Monday through Thursday... Pretty interesting how static/unchanging
conditions are through the period, something much more common in the
heart of summer when the Bermuda high dominates. Rather this period
an omega block sets up aloft and the surface high remains centered
to our north bringing several days of light easterly winds. Wave
guidance not showing much change either other than a slight
lengthening of dominant period; most of the swell energy diverted to
our south.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM