Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 301103
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
703 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled across the area will dissipate today resulting
in lower coverage of thunderstorm and shower activity. Normal
heat, humidity, and thunderstorm coverage to return Friday and
continue thru the July 4th weekend with weak to modest high
pressure to prevail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
"Dirty" upper ridging across the Carolinas today into tonight
will have enough dryer air in the mid and upper levels, along
with weak NVA aloft, to keep shower and thunderstorm activity
and coverage lower than what occurred during the past few days.
Should actually observe enough insolation to perk max temps to
and possibly above the 90 degree mark. Tonights lows will likely
see widespread low to mid 70s. POPs generally in the 20 to 45
percent today, with the lowest end of this range across the ILM
NC CWA and the hiest across the southwest portions of the ILM
SC CWA. Mainly dealing with diurnally driven convection from
this aftn into this evening. The coastal trof just off the
coast of NC and SC will be a source for convection development
tonight and likely push onshore toward daybreak Fri with hourly
POPs reflecting this. Weak flow aloft will keep convection slow
moving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge over northeastern parts of the CWA early Friday
is quickly pushed eastward as a bulk of shortwave energy
advects from the southwest. Deep moisture will lead to mostly
cloudy skies Friday with intermittent rain and thunderstorms.
Forecasted rainfall Friday 0.25-0.5", with highest across NE SC.
High temps slightly below normal in the mid to upper 80s. Weak
shortwave energy lingers Friday night into Saturday,
particularly near the coast, combined with moist airmass in
place will maintain rain chances early Saturday. Not as cloudy
Saturday as Friday, which will aid in typical afternoon
convection development. Highs Saturday in the upper 80s. Low
temps Friday and Saturday night near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
South-southwest flow around offshore low to mid level ridge
will maintain PWAT values around 2" Sunday through Wednesday,
which is a bit above normal even for this time of year. Expect
pretty typical summertime pattern throughout long term period,
with temps near normal and diurnal convection due to sea breeze,
afternoon heating, and an inland trough. Summertime humidity
expected as well with dewpoints of 70-75 degrees into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR fog and VVs will plague the inland terminals between
12-14z. The coastal terminals may see temporary MVFR fog but
should improve quickly. A few showers may move onshore or
develop along the coast this morning. Otherwise, overall,
expect coverage not as widespread for shower and thunderstorm
activity today due to mid and upper levels temporarily drying
out. Will indicate VCTS/VCSH across most terminals in lieu of
tempo and/or prevailing convective conditions. Coastal trof
just off the coast will be a source for convection toward
daybreak Fri, that may push beyond the coastal terminals.
Patchy fog will also be an MVFR and possibly IFR issue across
the inland terminals late tonight. Winds generally calm early
this morning becoming NE then veering to SE 10 kt or less after
daybreak thru this evening.

Extended Outlook...A little better chances for afternoon/early
evening showers and tstms as we move into and through the
weekend may lead to brief restrictions. Will also need to watch
for early morning low clouds/fog as summertime pattern develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Dissipating frontal boundary will transition
to a coastal trof with mainly a wind direction change associated
with it. This boundary to remain a fixture today and pivot
around the offshore high tonight resulting in NE-ESE winds 5 to
10 kt today, becoming SE-S tonight at 5 to 10 kt. Seas generally
around 2 ft thru this afternoon and 2 to 3 ft late this aftn
thru tonight as an E-SE swell at 8 to 9 second periods increases
it`s foothold across the waters. Convection across the waters
will peak near the coast today into early this evening. During
the pre-dawn Fri hrs, convection will develop offshore and push
into the coastal waters.

Friday through Monday...South-southwest winds persist across
the coastal waters Friday through Monday around offshore high
pressure. Winds around 10 kts Friday increase to 15 kts Saturday
into Sunday before weakening a bit for Monday. Seas 3 ft Friday
and Friday night increase to 3-4 ft Saturday through Sunday
night before lowering back to 3 ft Monday. Seas combination of
2-3ft 9-10s SE swell and 2- 3ft 5s S wind wave. Chance of
thunderstorms across the coastal waters each day, particularly
overnight into morning hours.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO


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