Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031753
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
1253 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a
soaking rain to the Carolinas today. A drying trend is expected
tonight into Thursday. A dry cold front will bring cooler
weather Friday into the weekend. A low pressure system is
expected to pass south of the area this weekend, but may bring
some clouds and possibly some rain into South Carolina.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Early afternoon update: Light showers have moved offshore and
clouds will gradually diminish for the rest of the afternoon as
drier air moves into the area. Temperatures should still top out
in the mid to upper 50s in most places.

Tonight: With high pressure moving into the area and cloud cover
moving out, tonight will be a good radiational cooling night.
Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

For Thu, amplified troffing aloft will extend across the FA
from the north, with the upper trof axis just off the Carolina
Coasts. WNW-NW downslope trajectory to the flow aloft and
minimal moisture thru the atm column will result in mainly
sunny skies for Thu. Max temps will run a bit hier than MOS
consensus, with widespread 60s for highs being fcst which is
near normal for this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build down behind dry cold front Thurs night
into Fri. Deep NW flow will advect cool and dry air into the
area with temps holding below 60 for highs on Fri into the
weekend. Low pressure riding around the base of deep mid to
upper trough will move across the Florida Peninsula Fri night
into Sat. Mid to high level moisture will increase Fri night
with a clouds thickening down to 10k ft by morning. Overall
expect a dry and slightly cooler forecast Fri with increasing
clouds Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure riding around the base of deep mid to upper trough
will move across the Florida Peninsula Fri night into Sat. This
system will remain south of area but may spread some clouds and
possibly some pcp far enough north to affect local forecast
area. Expect mainly thickening mid to upper level clouds on
Saturday with pcp remaining well south, for the most part, but
could reach into portions of SC Sat aftn. Soundings show
moisture working its way down close to 5 to 6k ft but keep low
levels dry in the lower levels down to the sfc. Column dries out
again Sat night into Sun with deep northerly winds as high
pressure builds in behind departing low early next week. Air
mass will modify and warm Mon into Tues as the center of the
high migrates across the Southeast, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. Ridging up through the east coast and southerly return
flow will bring temps back up above normal, well into the 60s.
Coolest nights will be Sat and Sun with overnight lows down near
or below freezing in many spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will prevail at KFLO, KILM and KLBT through 18Z Thursday.
Whereas, improvements at KMYR and KCRE are forthcoming as cloud
cover and light showers gradually move out of the area. By 20Z,
expect VFR to prevail. Fog may return overnight at all
terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions Thursday afternoon through
Sun with high pressure dominating from the NW thru N. Exception
will be Sat, with the potential for brief flight restrictions
due to passage of an area of low pressure south and east of NC
and SC.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...
SCA conditions to persist today into this evening due to gusty
NE backing to N winds, and risen seas. This a result of the sfc
low pressure intensifying once it moves off the GA Coast early
this morning. This low will track ENE to well offshore this
aftn and evening, and staying just south and east of the area
waters. This compact low will be just a memory by daybreak Thu,
with a weakened sfc pg having taking it`s place tonight. Winds
and seas will peak today then both diminish/subside below SCA
thresholds tonight and further drop respectively during Thu as
an offshore NW wind dominates. Expect vsby to reduce to 1 to 3
nm in light to moderate stratiform rain thru today, ending by
early evening at the latest.

Thursday night through Sunday...
High pressure will build down behind a dry cold front Thurs
night into Fri. Should see seas spike up a bit in this northerly
surge into early Fri, but latest guidance shows conditions
remaining below SCA thresholds. Winds become a lighter and more
variable Fri night into Sat with seas dropping from 3 to 4 ft
early Fri down less than 3 ft into the weekend. Overall, winds
will hold in a northerly direction with another slight increase
as low pressure skirts by to the south Sat night into Sun. Seas
may bump up once again early Sun in northerly flow on back end
of low.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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