997
FXUS62 KILM 240227
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1027 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain,
will continue through the remainder of the week as southerly
winds bring tropical moisture northward. A cold front could
move through the area this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the latest update. Showers/storms still
occurring inland late this evening and should continue for at
least several more hours as a disturbance aloft moves close by
to the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shower/tstm development to this point has been more isolated in
nature than anticipated, and although visible satellite imagery does
show some clustering cumulus across the Pee Dee, it appears that
best coverage may remain west of the CWA, at least for the next
few hours. Have capped PoPs at 50% through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening, and that may still be a bit high based on
current trends. Any development this afternoon and evening should
wane a few hours after sunset, and once again, area of favored
development will transition towards the coast and adjacent waters,
as the synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged. Wednesday should
see initial convection develop in the morning hours along the sea
breeze front, and shift inland through the afternoon. Will keep PoPs
generally in a 40-60% range. Some guidance remains aggressive with
development inland during the afternoon and early evening, but am
leaning towards it being overdone, as has been the case for a few
days now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather is the emphasis for the short term
period through Friday. A broad southwest flow remains in place
through Thursday warranting a continuation of higher pops. By Friday
the mid level pattern shifts a bit with more of a westerly flow
developing however a back door front is added to the mix via a
highly amplified pattern to the west. The deeper moisture seems to
hang on as well and considering the convection most of the week will
have been meandering (mesoscale based) the front may very well be
the catalyst that provides the most organization to the
convection/rainfall. Essentially no changes to the temperature
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unusual mid level pattern at first eventually transitions
into a broad east coast trough with strong ridging out west. A
cooler and drier air mass will build into the area for the weekend
into next week. Kind of unusual for late July but there is some
agreement on this. More than anything overnight lows dipping into
the upper 60s will be most noticeable. Of course in this type of
scenario the southward progress of the front is always in
question and pops remain in the forecast for these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday
across SE NC and NE SC. Much of the same pattern as the last
few days with periodic restrictions possible from
showers/storms/low clouds, mainly inland at KFLO/KLBT tonight
and again Wednesday afternoon and near the coast at
KILM/KCRE/KMYR Wednesday morning/early afternoon. Fog appears
unlikely tonight due to a decent low- level jet, but certainly
can`t be completely ruled out, especially inland at KLBT/KFLO if
rain falls there tonight.

Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Bermuda high will remain in place through Wednesday. Southerly
winds on the order of 10-15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts will
continue through Wednesday, as will a 2-3 ft SE swell, combined
with a 2-3 ft southerly wind wave. Little to no convection over
the waters through the evening, however shower and thunderstorm
chances will ramp up late tonight and early Wednesday morning
before any showers/storms over the waters fade out.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...
Unusual in the depths of summer to talk about a wind shift
but it remains in play from Friday onward as a backdoor front slips
across the waters. Not the hardiest of surges as would be expected
but the flow should reside in a 10-15 knot range mostly lower. Until
then southwest 10-15. Overall significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SHK/CRM