Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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542 FXUS62 KILM 301752 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 152 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through Friday. A cold front will move through Friday night bringing cooler and drier weather this weekend. High pressure shifting offshore will bring warmer and moister conditions starting Monday. && .UPDATE... Adjusted the temperatures upward going into this afternoon, as the trends were outdoing the previous forecast. Main forecast package should be out within the next hour or half and a half. Elsewhere, updated 18Z TAF discussion found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Have added mention of patchy dense fog for inland areas until around sunrise this morning. It looks like the main cloud shield has set up north of the area with some waves of clouds that will travel inland overnight. For this reason have limited coverage of dense fog to patchy for now and will continue to monitor. Can`t rule out the need for a Dense Fog Advisory though before daybreak. At least partial cloudiness will linger through the rest of today as onshore flow persists. High pressure will be loosely draped over the area with the surface center offshore, ridging aloft shifting to the NE through the day. Highs near 80, cooler at the coast. Tonight is looking like it will also be a favorable fog night so have patchy fog for now, particularly for inland. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Above normal temperatures with minimal rain chances Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Low-level high pressure centered to the northeast will be giving way to a weak cold front which will pass through Friday night. Limited moisture and forcing will prevent significant rainfall but can`t rule out some periodic showers. Temps will be above normal with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows generally ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights: *Mainly dry with above normal temperatures Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Cooler and drier high pressure will return from the north this weekend with a few showers possibly lingering still on Saturday depending on how quickly the dry air moves into the area. The high will shift offshore starting Monday so we expect warmer and moister conditions although shower chances will be minimal. Temps will be above normal through the period, although closest to normal Sunday when highs should only reach the mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Diurnal cumulus have popped up across the area, leading to VFR ceilings at 4000-5000 ft. That will continue through the afternoon, dissipating by tonight. From there, looks like another favorable night for fog. Conditions look rather similar to last night, so there`s a suspicion that fog may start to form prior to 06Z. Have a feeling that there could be IFR and LIFR restrictions, particularly inland, somewhere in the 07-12Z range. Fog should erode again with winds picking up by 13-14Z. Southeasterly winds build in again towards the end of the period. Extended Outlook...Should be mostly VFR through Monday. The one caveat may be due to fog that may occur before and just after sunset, particularly Friday night into Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions expected through the period with light onshore flow. Seas will be 3-4 ft with a 3-4 ft E swell at 7-8 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...The nearshore Atlantic waters off the SE NC and NE SC coasts will be dominated mainly by high pressure centered to the N/NE. A fairly weak cold front will move through Friday night though bringing a small risk for marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions starting Saturday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...IGB MARINE...RJB/LEW