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000
FXUS62 KILM 290530
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1230 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures fall below freezing tonight under Cold Canadian
high pressure. The high will push offshore later in the week
with a return to milder temperatures. Rain chances will
increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area through
the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Dry cold front is entering our forecast area now based on latest
surface obs. Dewpoints in the low 20s, and even upper teens, are
moving in from the NNW, with Elizabethtown down to 25F dewpoint.
May see some patchy frost develop early tonight, especially
across coastal counties, before the dry air arrives. Here are
the latest probabilities for observing record lows tonight using
the National Blend of Models (NBM): 71% at Wilmington, 45% at
Florence, 35% at North Myrtle Beach, and 8% at Lumberton. See
climate section below for current records.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunny, dry, and breezy conditions will give way to a remarkably
chilly night as a well-timed dry cold front brings very dry air
early in the night while decreasing northerly winds permit efficient
radiational cooling through the night. Record cold lows (see the
Climate section below) will be threatened under this setup with low-
mid 20s expected away from the coastline, and upper 20s expected
along the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect to account for those
areas which have not yet experienced a widespread freeze, which
includes all coastal sections and all of New Hanover County.

On Wednesday, the cold and dry near-surface air will warm up quickly
beneath fully sunny skies. However, strong subsidence and the
shallow sun angle will keep temps from reaching even the coldest
normal highs observed across the area in a given year, which are in
the middle 50s during mid-January. Highs on Wednesday will reach the
upper 40s to low 50s with light and variable winds as high pressure
shifts overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will start to slip offshore into Thurs with
the upper level trough lifting, bringing brief WAA aloft and zonal
flow. Lows Wed night will warm slightly but still remain largely
below freezing. Light winds as the high moves overhead should result
in some radiational cooling as long as overhead cirrus remains thin,
but due to uncertainty only lowered temps in colder spots by a
couple degrees. Thurs will warm to near 60 as return flow around the
retreating high takes hold and a coastal trough begins to develop
later in the day. Increasing moisture from the SW will remain far
offshore so the period remains dry. Lows will fall in the mid to
upper 30s as cloud cover increases overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warming trend will kick off through the end of the week with
unsettled weather due to several upper level disturbances passing
over the area. To start, the coastal trough will quickly lift
through Fri with a shortwave moving through and a possible jet
passing overhead. Trended a bit higher on wind gusts Fri but will
say soundings are showing us capped at the surface, ~20 kts just
above this cap with some guidance showing higher speeds. Wondering
if some of these stronger gusts could end up mixing down as shower
chances increase, but not expecting any downpours through Fri as
moisture is still recovering, so chances are low. Environment could
become more convective headed into the weekend as we enter into the
warm sector of a system to our west, moisture continuing to recover,
some guidance showing PWATs reaching ~1.5". This system`s cold front
looks to approach through Saturday before stalling over the area
into early next week, moving offshore by Tues as a large amplitude
trough aloft pushes through and we start to dry out once more.
Temperatures will run 10-15 deg above normal before returning to
near seasonable early next week behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A winter-like radiational cooling night with clear skies, light
winds, and one line TAFS. The high remains overhead tomorrow so
nothing changes even as some very weak mixing ensues.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues until Friday, when showers
could lead to brief/minor flight restrictions. Periods of low
clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions through the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Offshore flow will dominate through the period
with breezy westerly winds this afternoon turning northerly this
evening as a dry cold front shifts through. Winds will peak around
15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through midnight before gradually
subsiding. Northerly winds will continue subsiding and eventually
turn westerly again as surface high pressure shifts to our
southwest. Offshore flow will keep wave heights around 1-2 ft in the
coastal waters, although a period of 3-ft waves is expected in the
NC coastal zones, mainly near and north of Cape Fear. These are
expected to mainly stem from northwesterly wind waves at 4 sec and
exist around 10-20nm offshore.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...High pressure in place will lead to
variable winds near or below 10 kts through Thursday. The high will
start to slip offshore with a coastal trough developing into early
Friday, lifting through the day with increasing southerly flow 10-15
kts. The gradient weakens with a stalled front in the area through
the weekend, southwesterly winds near 10 kts. Seas largely 2 ft
increasing through Friday to 3-5 ft and remaining near 3-4 ft
through the end of the period. Main swells will be a weak NE swell
at 6-8 seconds and a southeasterly wind wave.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record lows tonight/Wednesday morning could be in trouble.
Here are they are:

ILM: 24 set in 1996
FLO: 23 set in 2002
CRE: 26 set in 1955
LBT: 19 set in 1938

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106>108-110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...LEW/ABW
CLIMATE...