Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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542
FXUS62 KILM 301752
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
152 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and mostly dry conditions are expected
through Friday. A cold front will move through Friday night
bringing cooler and drier weather this weekend. High pressure
shifting offshore will bring warmer and moister conditions
starting Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Adjusted the temperatures upward going into this afternoon, as
the trends were outdoing the previous forecast. Main forecast
package should be out within the next hour or half and a half.
Elsewhere, updated 18Z TAF discussion found below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Have added mention of patchy dense fog for inland areas until
around sunrise this morning. It looks like the main cloud
shield has set up north of the area with some waves of clouds
that will travel inland overnight. For this reason have limited
coverage of dense fog to patchy for now and will continue to
monitor. Can`t rule out the need for a Dense Fog Advisory though
before daybreak.

At least partial cloudiness will linger through the rest of
today as onshore flow persists. High pressure will be loosely
draped over the area with the surface center offshore, ridging
aloft shifting to the NE through the day. Highs near 80, cooler
at the coast. Tonight is looking like it will also be a
favorable fog night so have patchy fog for now, particularly for
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Above normal temperatures with minimal rain chances

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Low-level high pressure centered to the northeast will be
giving way to a weak cold front which will pass through Friday
night. Limited moisture and forcing will prevent significant
rainfall but can`t rule out some periodic showers. Temps will be
above normal with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows
generally ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Mainly dry with above normal temperatures

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Cooler and drier high pressure will return from the north
this weekend with a few showers possibly lingering still on Saturday
depending on how quickly the dry air moves into the area. The high
will shift offshore starting Monday so we expect warmer and moister
conditions although shower chances will be minimal. Temps will be
above normal through the period, although closest to normal Sunday
when highs should only reach the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Diurnal cumulus have popped up across the area, leading to VFR
ceilings at 4000-5000 ft. That will continue through the
afternoon, dissipating by tonight. From there, looks like
another favorable night for fog. Conditions look rather similar
to last night, so there`s a suspicion that fog may start to form
prior to 06Z. Have a feeling that there could be IFR and LIFR
restrictions, particularly inland, somewhere in the 07-12Z
range. Fog should erode again with winds picking up by 13-14Z.
Southeasterly winds build in again towards the end of the
period.

Extended Outlook...Should be mostly VFR through Monday. The one
caveat may be due to fog that may occur before and just after
sunset, particularly Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions expected through the
period with light onshore flow. Seas will be 3-4 ft with a 3-4 ft E
swell at 7-8 seconds.

Thursday through Sunday...The nearshore Atlantic waters off the SE
NC and NE SC coasts will be dominated mainly by high pressure
centered to the N/NE. A fairly weak cold front will move through
Friday night though bringing a small risk for marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions starting Saturday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/LEW