Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 202341
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
741 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Claudette will bring heavy rain and isolated tornados overnight
into Monday morning. After a one day break Monday another round
of heavy rain returns Tuesday. Cooler air will move in on
Wednesday with just a slow recovery Tuesday. The latter part of
the week and weekend look seasonable with the normal June
scattering of thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
What could be the final organized line of convection (although
in reality there have been only a couple) according to some high
resolution guidance is currently moving southwest to northeast
across the area. Will wait until a bit later to make wholesale
changes to pops, FFA (may remove early) and perhaps other
fields.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The first 12 to 18 hours of the forecast will be dominated by the
effects of Claudette with showers and wind through about daybreak
Monday. In the wake of the TC, expect isolated showers and storms
Monday and Monday night due to minimal forcing and slightly drier
air over the area. Moisture will return Monday night on SW flow
ahead of an advancing cold with the possibility of a shower or storm
toward daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PW values surge as high as 2.2" Tuesday ahead of a surface cold
front and upper trough. Not surprising then to see some strong
convective signals in model guidance indicating the chance for some
heavy rainfall. SPC is also highlighting the area for a Marginal
Risk in their Day 3 Convective Outlook. There are some timing
differences that will affect the available instability. Even with
meager instability some wet microbursts should be possible given the
copious deep layer moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wedge of high pressure builds in from the north Wednesday; some
places struggling to hit 80 as they sky remains overcast. Partial
sunshine returns Thursday as the ridge weakens. Both days represent
a challenging rainfall forecast as moisture appears to be shunted
off the coast but many models are still showing POPs both days....as
a result have lowered forecast values.  Friday also not quite as
depicted by model guidance as a weak warm front moves through but
with little support for ascent aloft. Thunderstorms will likely have
fairly normal coverage for the season over the weekend as a few
shortwaves traverse the area while Atlantic high pressure continues
to supply moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Only scattered showers at this time, but there should be some
thunder by mid afternoon. The depression will approach the
region this evening, with more rain and strong winds, with IFR
conditions a good bet. The low pulls out Monday morning, with
strong westerly winds.

Extended Outlook...Convection late Mon thru Wed with a continued
threat for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday night...expect frisky conditions through the period
with tropical storm conditions expected tonight into Monday before
and approaching cold front ramps SW flow back up to about SCA levels
by Monday evening. Seas are expected to build tonight to about 5 to
8 FT by midnight then fall slightly during Monday, though 4 to 6
footers could continue into Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday...Southwesterly prefrontal winds Tuesday and
Tuesday night may be sufficient to keep advisory-worthy 6 ft seas in
the area. An abrupt veer with FROPA is slated for Wednesday morning
so even as predominant wave heights fall below criteria there will
be a transition to a shorter period, steeper sea state. Uncommon NE
winds Wednesday night as high pressure wedges in from the north,
followed by a gradual weakening trend on Thursday. Southerly
component returns by Friday and with speeds that will allow
predominant wave heights to continue to abate. Spectral plots are
showing a very long period 1 ft swell as early as Wednesday but
given its small stature will likely be more of a beach hazard than a
boating hazard.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK/31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...


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