Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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950 FXUS63 KDLH 250903 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 403 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. No severe weather is anticipated at this time. - Active weather continues through early next week with off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms. No signals for severe weather. - A brief reprieve from the active weather arrives midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Current conditions/Morning: A vertically stacked low has moved into southeast Manitoba this morning with a few isolated light showers tapering off across northern MN. Southwest winds begin to nudge their way in across the Brainerd Lakes later this morning promoting an increase in warm air advection. CAMs have a breif signal for some sprinkles moving west to east before dissipating across Lake Superior before noon. This afternoon/Evening: Southwest flow continues across the region today and we will see a baroclinic zone set up from the Brainerd Lakes region northeast through most of our CWA. Within this corridor showers and a few thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon (20-40%). SPC has our area outlined in a general thunder threat with no severe weather anticipated. A few of the CAMs are a bit more rigorous with their depiction of the afternoon cells but the main question is how much instability will be in play for the atmosphere to work with. Most guidance is on the low end showcasing around a couple hundreds of J/kg. A few outliers such as the RAP still show over 500 J/kg, but it seems to be overestimating dewpoints with forecasted afternoon values over 55F. This is well over the 99th percentile of other guidance so would likely quantify the RAP as the work case scenario model for the day. Regardless, plenty of bulk shear for storms to work with. Small hail and some gusty winds at the surface look to be the main hazards this afternoon and early evening. Storm chances quickly drop off after sunset leaving rain showers and the occasional rumble of thunder through the overnight hours. Lack of a strong moisture source region will keep rain totals on the low side with most areas remaining less than 0.25 inches of rain. Sunday: A low pressure system is projected to moves across the Midwest through southern WI on it`s way towards Lake Michigan. The northern periphery of this system will glance NW WI increasing rain chances through the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, easterly winds off of Lake Superior combined with residual moisture in the area could lead to some rain developing along the North Shore. There still remains some uncertainty with the Low track which will impact rainfall amounts. For now, the better chances for moderate rain fall are over our SE counties in WI. No severe weather is expected at this time. Memorial Day and into the midweek: The active pattern looks to continue for Memorial Day as an upper level trough swings out of the Northern Plains and into the Northland. Current 00Z guidance has rain entering from the west in the morning and spreading east through the day. A few thunderstorms will be possible but lack of shear will prevent strong storms from developing. High temps will be in the 60s. We continue to carry precip chances for Tuesday before high pressure settles in for Wednesday allowing for a brief reprieve. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A low pressure system is along the Manitoba and Ontario border this morning with areas of light rain tapering off across the region. MVFR ceilings still linger across northern MN and there is potential for some IFR ceilings at INL. After sunrise some of the high res guidance is suggesting some light rain possible near BRD. This area of showers is projected to weaken as it moves northeast. As we head into the afternoon hours there is potential for a line of showers and storms to develop from the Brainerd Lakes region towards the Twin Ports. Thunderstorm chances quickly drop off after sunset. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Southwest winds continue to stream across Lake Superior today creating hazardous conditions for small vessels. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for most of the nearshore waters. This afternoon scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact Lake Superior. After winds taper off this afternoon we will see an extended period of lighter winds and smaller wave heights. The weather however will still remain active with off and on rain chances and thunderstorms through early next week. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt