Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250801
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern for short term is severe weather today and this
evening.

Current surface analysis indicates an area of showers and thunderstorms
moving along the international border. This area will continue to
move along the border early this morning. Another area of strong
to severe thunderstorms extends from Warroad to Fosston. This
area of storms should clip the western portion of Koochiching
county in the next hour.

The main focus for the short term is another round of severe
weather this afternoon and this evening across the forecast area.
SPC basically has the entire forecast area in an enhanced area
for severe thunderstorms. The situation today is somewhat similar
to last Sunday`s situation. Forecast CAPE values are a little
lower (3K  vs. 4K ) and the best shear region is
behind the front while it was with the front last Sunday. As
indicated by the day shift...unlike last Sunday...there will not
be as strong as a cap so thunderstorms will develop earlier.
But...like last Sunday...a cold front will move through NE MN this
afternoon and NW WI this evening. Out ahead of of it...dewpoints
will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. There will be a
possibility of supercells at the beginning of the evening with a
line developing in the late afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds along with possible tornadoes will be the main
threats with the storms

After the front passes...an area of high pressure will build into
the region late saturday night brining in cooler and drier air for
Sunday. A weak shortwave will move through Northern MN Sunday
afternoon brining a chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cut off upper lever low will translate across Ontario through
sunday night. The resulting cyclonic flow, along with much cooler
air, to dive over the western lake superior region Monday. The cold
air aloft will bring tight pressure gradient into the region,
producing gusty northwest winds sunday night through Monday.

Latest guidance suggests temps at 850hPa are on the order of just a
degree or two above zero C with the core of the coldest air that
tracks over the MN arrowhead zones Monday. High Temperatures on
Monday will be well below normal across the region with readings
topping out generally in the 60s. The steep lapse rates and
instability will also result in scattered rain showers during this
time.

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging will build into the
Northland through Mid week, bringing a return to seasonable
temperatures and winds of generally less than 10 kts.

Rain chances return to the forecast late Wednesday through Thursday
as a vort max, with transition to cold air advection, drops out of
canada and tracks over the forecast area. Latest GFS/ECM are in good
agreement that an upper level low deepens over hudson bay through
the end of the week, keeping the western great lakes region in a
cool unstable cyclonic flow as we go into the Holiday weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern overnight is the possibility of thunderstorms at
KINL/KHIB/KDLH. Most confident on thunderstorm activity at KINL
and tried to time thunderstorms moving through by the last several
HRRR runs. Less certain on storms at KDLH/KHIB as unsure if
activity will develop that far southeast as the strongest forcing
is farther north. Due to the uncertainty left in as VCSH from 09
to 13Z. Think that these showers/storms will bring ceilings down
to the MVFR range as the column moistens at KDLH/KHIB/KINL. Think
there is a possibility of MVFR at KHYR/KBRD around 13Z as well,
but held off as showers should remain out of these locations
overnight and early tomorrow morning.

Will see a return to VFR ceilings as the mixed layer develops. Due
to the incoming system and the increasing pressure gradient, will
see gusty winds develop at all terminals. During the afternoon
will see another round of showers and thunderstorms develop. Tried
to show a downward trend of thunderstorm activity to all terminals
except KHYR around 01Z as the cold front will have moved through
these locations. KHYR is likely to see storms around until after
06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  57  78  53 /  80  60  20  10
INL  81  58  69  51 /  80  30  50  30
BRD  86  59  79  55 /  80  20  10  10
HYR  86  59  80  55 /  80  80  10  10
ASX  86  60  80  55 /  80  80  10  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...WL


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