874
FXUS64 KEWX 261944
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Our weather today is being dominated by the upper level ridge to the
south over Mexico...a trough moving through the Central Plains...and
some fast zonal flow in the mid levels across west Texas.  Clouds
have been stubborn to move out of the region today...waiting for the
NW 850mb winds to push them out. As of this writing clouds are still
over I-35 and eastward...with nearly clear skies over the Hill
Country and the Rio Grande area. The surface trough/dryline is
making a surge eastward out west...into Val Verde County and
portions of Edwards County. With Temps over 100 and dewpoints
dropping fast...issued a Fire Danger Statement as RH should drop
below 10 percent later today.  That surge of dry air will not really
make it past a Fredericksburg to Eagle Pass line...so most of the
area will remain in the hazy, hot, smokey airmass.  Heat Advisories
and Excessive Heat warnings remain in effect...although the
cloudcover mentioned above is delaying a lot of the hottest temps.
There is still a strong likelihood we will hit criteria so no
changes to the ongoing look or timing of the heat products.  The
Advisory/Warning is carried overnight into tomorrow until 8 PM
Monday.

By this evening look for the clouds to thin before reforming
overnight with lows in the 70s...low 80s along the Rio Grande.
Another cloudy morning on Monday is expected. Models are still going
strong with heat/humidity Monday so everywhere except the Hill
Country will remain in the Heat ADV/Warning.   Some tweaks may be
needed on the overnight shift if the clouds once again look to
persist longer into the early afternoon...those few degrees could
overall impact the decision making of counties in/out of the Heat
products. Will be carrying a 20 pop across most of the zones except
the far west sections of Val Verde County Monday afternoon and
evening.  A few of the models including the GFS are showing
convection over our region, likely from a ripple moving across in
the upper levels and some meso type boundaries.  Confidence is still
low of exactly how many people could see storms on Monday.  SPC
expanded the marginal risk across all of the CWA tomorrow.  If any
storms do fire...with the intense heat expected...SVR storms would
be expected...with some good wind potential.  Any convection that
does form...should dissipate by the time late evening arrives with
Monday night expected to be fairly quiet unless some storm complexes
can get going.  WPC has painted some qpf over much of the
CWA...again likely bullish in areal coverage...but at this point no
real great way to tell where a favored area is based on a limited
amount of models even showing the activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

"Cooler" temperatures are forecast for the extended forecast period
with highs in the low to mid 90s across a good portion of the local
area and upper 90s to 103 degree range along the Rio Grande.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon
into the evening period. Storm development areas preferred are the
Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, areas along the
I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains. Some strong to marginally
severe storms are possible especially Tuesday and Wednesday with
main hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Can`t ruled out a
few rounds of heavy downpours through the period.

Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy mornings with clouds breaking in the
afternoon for the most part. It looks like Tuesday could stay mostly
cloudy all day as mid to upper level moisture prevails over South
Central Texas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Clouds have been stubborn to vacate the I-35 corridor early this
afternoon. Still hanging onto MVFR SAT/AUS/SSF along with some 5-6SM
visby with haze and likely some smoke in there as well. The 850
trough with its NW winds is pushing through the Hill Country and this
eventually should get into I35 and allow the MVFR decks to scatter
out. Already seeing this trend on Satellite. Out over the far
west...a surface trough has pushed through Val Verde County so DRT
has gone a westerly wind...eventually will be a N wind by later this
afternoon. Skies will remain clear at DRT rest of the day.

For tonight...any affect mid level dry air trying to work into the
region will not hold...and low clouds should redevelop with MVFR and
IFR at SAT/AUS/SSF. Was a little hesitant to bring the clouds into
DRT tomorrow morning with the NAM showing a deck...but decided to
mention it with a SCT instead. Winds should go fairly light after the
sun goes down...return with some light to moderate East and SE
tomorrow most areas. Despite a carry of slight pop for Monday across
the region, will leave mention of any TS out of the forecast as
confidence is too low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Climate....with record highs tomorrow at SAT/ATT/AUS all at
100...there is a chance that some or all of those could be
tied/broken. DRT record is 106...which should be broken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  75  94 /   0  20  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  74  95 /   0  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 101  75  96 /   0  20  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  97  72  91 /   0  20  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 110  81 101 /   0  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  98  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             76 105  75  97 /   0  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 100  74  95 /  10  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  97  75  93 /  10  10  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 101  75  95 /   0  20  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           78 103  76  97 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...09
Long-Term...17
Aviation...09