263
FXUS65 KPUB 050948
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry with above normal but below record temperatures expected.

 - Hot temperatures continue Thursday and Friday, with isolated
   to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected each
   day, especially Friday.

 - Rain showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage for the
   weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Upper ridge translates in from the west today which will decrease
the flow aloft and lead to warmer temperatures across all of
southern CO.  Lack of moisture will keep the forecast dry district-
wide and temperatures should climb around 10 degrees above
climatological normals.  Readings look to stay a few degrees below
record highs for this day which are:

COS 94 in 2020
PUB 101 in 2020
ALS 90 in 2010

Dry weather and clear skies continue into this evening.  Once again,
went closer to guidance for the colder valley spots where the dry
airmass under clear skies should allow for sufficient radiational
cooling to drop temperatures below model blends. -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday - Friday: For the later part of the week, relatively quiet
weather is anticipated, though a trend towards more active is
expected Friday. Synoptically, northwest flow will continue over
south central and southeastern Colorado. Forcing will remain rather
minor with this pattern, though weak orographic forcing will
persist. Along with that, moisture return will start to take place
Thursday and Friday, though trends over the past day or so in model
guidance has been to keep more appreciable moisture further east.
Given the orographic forcing, and modest uptick in moisture,
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day, mostly along the mountains, though chances
become more widespread across the region Friday. Along with
that, given the slight rise in moisture and associated
instability, a strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorm or two
is possible, especially Friday which will have richer moisture
across the far eastern plains. With all of that said though, any
showers and thunderstorms present will lessen in coverage
during the evening and overnight hours. As for temperatures, the
heat continues. Much of the area will warm well above seasonal
values for early June. A modest cold front is anticipated to
drop southward Friday, but is expected push over the area during
the late evening timeframe, bringing no relief from the heat
Friday afternoon.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the remainder of the long term period, a
wetter pattern is anticipated. Northwest flow will prevail over south
central and southeastern Colorado, and moisture return will continue
over the area, especially the eastern plains. While broader forcing
will continue to remain relatively light, surface upsloping and
orographic forcing, along with the moisture in place, will allow for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially
along and east of the I-25 corridor. Along with that, there will
still be a concern for strong to severe storms during this period,
though mostly Saturday and Sunday, when the the overlap of better
shear and moisture/instability is expected. Rain shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be highest during the afternoon
and early evening hours, when any instability is highest. Looking at
temperatures, a cool down is in store. Much of the region will drop
back down to around seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies.  Winds will remain light and diurnally driven through this
evening. The exception will be KALS where northwest breezes around
10-15 kts will spread into the region by late afternoon.  Winds will
shift from the north between 06z and 12z tonight across the
southeast plains as a cold front moves through.  Wind may briefly
gust up to 20-25 kts at KCOS and KPUB with the front early Thursday
morning, with higher gusts restricted to the eastern CO counties.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR/KT