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572
FXUS65 KPUB 200518
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Currently, quiet afternoon over the forecast area.  GOES-16 shows
only location with moderate Cu is over the southern Sangre de Cristo
mountains.

For tonight, kept some isolated PoPs along the southern mountains
into the early evening.  Otherwise anticipate a quiet night.  On
Tuesday, upper level ridge expands eastward as the trough over the
Midwest continues to move to the east.  The modestly cooler and more
moist airmass, which has covered the plains and much of the eastern
mountains, will move to the east. Warmer weather with lower
humidities will cover the eastern mountains and much of the plains
on Tuesday with highs approaching or exceeding 100 over portions of
the plains.  Winds will be light in this warmer airmass. With the
light winds, do not anticipate conditions approaching red flag
conditions in locations where fuels will be critical.  A dry line
will set up near the Kansas border during the afternoon with a
relatively moist airmass ahead of the dry line. SPC day2 outlook has
a marginal risk east of a line from roughly Trinidad to Holly, and a
nose of the slight risk extends into Baca County.  Main threats will
be large hail and strong winds. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Hot through Mid Week with Cooler Air expected for the Weekend...

Tuesday night-Thursday...The center of large dome of high pressure
across the Desert Southwest is forecast to slowly slide south and
east into the southern Rockies through the middle of the week, as
several minor disturbances translate across the moderate westerly
flow aloft across the Northern Tier of States. These disturbances
will help develop lee troughing across the eastern Plains, with low
level moisture mixing out across the far southeast plains through
the late morning and afternoons. With that said, will continue to
daily chances of afternoon isolated high based convection over and
near the higher terrain, with slightly better chances of seeing
wetting rains across the far se plains along the mixing dry line.
Could also see a few stronger storms across the far se plains in the
afternoon and early evening through this period. As for
temperatures, westerly flow and warm air aloft, will keep
temperatures well above seasonal averages through the period, with
highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the plains, 70s
and and 80s across the higher terrain and in the 50s and 60s at the
peaks, with warmest day likely being Wednesday.

Thursday night-Saturday night...Upper level high pressure progged
across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico, with moderate west
to northwest flow aloft progged across the state, as a stronger wave
moves across the Northern Rockies and into the High Plains. There
are some timing differences on said system, however, will see a
cooling trend to below normal temperatures, especially across the
eastern plains, through the day Friday and especially on Saturday.
The GFS is a tad faster with the initial cool down on Friday, and
can`t rule out a few showers along and behind a passing front Friday
evening. A secondary surge of cool air slides across eastern
Colorado on Saturday and will keep the plains too stable for
convection, though again can`t rule a few showers or storms across
the higher terrain Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs on Saturday
will be noticeably cooler, with 70s and 80s across the lower
elevations, and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level ridging rebuilds across the Desert SW
and into the Great Basin, supporting a warming trend back to around
seasonal levels into early next week. Some moisture embedded within
the weak northwest flow aloft will also support increasing chances
of afternoon and evening showers and storms across the area, most
notable across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals
with generally light winds. A few mid and high level clouds will
move across the area on Tuesday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY