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565
FXUS65 KPUB 170551
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include
temperatures, pops, potential for areas of low clouds/fog and
Sunday`s thunderstorm intensity potential.

Forecast district currently graced by dry conditions in combination
with generally near to slightly below seasonal mid-September
temperatures.

Recent real-time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that isolated pops in combination
with areas of low clouds/fog will be possible tonight, with the
highest potential of low-grade pops favoring portions of Teller, El
Paso and Kiowa counties.  In addition, minimum temperatures tonight
are projected to run slightly above seasonal averages.

For Sunday, meteorological parameters are signaling for a somewhat
increased chance of pops, including the potential for isolated
stronger to marginally severe storms favoring south-central and
southeastern sections of the forecast district(which matches SPC`s
Day 2 Severe Outlook) as adequate forecast atmospheric moisture,
shear, capes, etc. develop over portions of the forecast district.
Also, maximum temperatures on Sunday are projected to run slightly
lower than mid-September climatological averages over most locations
of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Sunday night-Monday...Minor wave embedded within the moderate
westerly flow aloft across the region continues to lift out across
area through the evening and into western Kansas through the
overnight hours. With that said, will see isolated to scattered
showers and storms, best coverage over and the higher terrain,
diminishing from west to east through the evening hours, with
clearing skies expected through the overnight hours. Dry and warm
conditions expected across the area on Monday.

Tuesday-Thursday...Westerly flow increases across the region on
Tuesday with another embedded wave translating across the Northern
Rockies. Increasing downslope flow will lead to dry...warm and
breezy to windy conditions across the area, owning to elevated fire
danger Tuesday afternoon. Westerly flow aloft moderates through
Wednesday with southwest flow aloft expected to slowly increase once
again on Thursday, ahead of a deep upper trough digging into the
Great Basin. Generally dry and warm weather expected through the
middle of the week, with temperatures at or above seasonal levels.

Friday-Saturday...A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern takes
shape across the area, though longer range models differing on
timing and extent. The GFS is faster, weaker and further north to
ejecting the Great Basin system across the area, where as the EC is
slower, stronger and further south with said system. At any rate,
will likely see increasing chances of precipitation across the
higher terrain going into the weekend, with slight chance of pops
for the plains, with temperatures cooling down to at and below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

At KALS, generally VFR conditions are expected to continue during
the next 24 hours. The KCOS and KPUB TAF sites should experience
basically VFR conditions this evening with MVFR conditions then
anticipated after midnight into Sunday morning due to developing
low clouds and localized fog potential.

The possibility also exists that IFR conditions may also develop
over/near the KCOS TAF site after midnight, primarily between 09Z
to 16Z Sunday due to low ceilings.

Finally, isolated pops are possible at KCOS tonight and over all
of the TAF sites primarily during Sunday afternoon and evening,
with strongest storms anticipated from Pueblo and locations south
of Pueblo.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW