Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130510
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1010 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Primary near-short term meteorological concerns includes pops, snow
amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at times(primarily
over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at times and
temperatures.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds eastern
sections to cloudy skies western portions in combination with
generally above seasonal mid-January temperatures and relatively
tame winds(especially when compared to the previous 3 days).

Recent real-time data, computer simulations, PV analysis and
forecast model soundings suggest that snow, heavy at times, will be
possible over portions of the Continental Divide into
Saturday(although recent trends have backed off somewhat on snow
amounts and coverage), and at this time will maintain existing
Winter Weather Highlights for these locations into Saturday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to amount of impact that vigorous
closed upper low produces over the forecast district beginning
later Friday night and continuing into Monday(for the Saturday
night into next week details please view longer term discussion
below). Closed upper low located south-southwest of Los Angeles,
California at 00Z Saturday moves to approximately 825 miles south
of Yuma, Arizona by 00Z Sunday with a lobe of energy generally
producing light precipitation over the forecast district from
later Friday night into Saturday. In addition, have also depicted
some basically light freezing precipitation over far southeastern
locations(primarily portions of Baca, Prowers and Kiowa counties)
from Friday night into Saturday.

The highest potential for gusty winds should be experienced at times
from tonight into Friday, in combination with temperatures running
near to a category or so below below mid-January climatological
averages over most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Jan 122017

...Winter Storm to impact the southeast plains this weekend...

For Saturday night into Sunday...the latest model runs are trending
farther south with the upper low now forecast to move across
northern Mexico Saturday night. Because of the more southern track,
have lowered pops initially across the northern portion of the CWA.
Have kept the best precipitation chances across the southern CWA.
Precipitation type continues to be a concern as well. Temperatures
Sunday off the newest model runs are a bit warmer across southeast
CO and soundings for SPD now indicate more rain than freezing rain.
However, that is just one model run of the NAM, while previous
models were consistent with surface temps below freezing and a nose
of warm aloft which would favor freezing rain. Superblend
temperatures for Sunday are showing temps in the mid to upper 30s.
Models bring a significant swath of moisture and precipitation
across far southwestern Kansas Saturday night into Sunday, but
moisture across southeast CO is somewhat limited initially. The snow
diminishes across the Central Mountains with snow continuing for the
Eastern San Juans.

Late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday...the upper low moves
to the TX panhandle and wraparound moisture increases across the
southeast plains. Surface winds shift to northerly and the cold air
deepens across the plains. Currently have precipitation changing
over to all snow across southeast CO Sunday night. Northerly
downslope surface winds across southern El Paso and Pueblo counties
could limit the amount of precipitation in those areas. Kept the
best snow chance along and East of I-25. Models continue to indicate
fairly impressive liquid precipitation amounts of 1" to 1.5".
Difficult to say exactly how much of that will fall as snow as
models differing on precipitation type. Could end up with a mix of
rain, freezing rain, and snow initially before changing over to all
snow Sunday night and continuing into early Monday. Preferred
locations for the heaviest precipitation look like eastern Las
Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers, Baca, and Kiowa counties. Gusty
northerly winds late Sunday night and Monday morning could create
blowing and drifting snow. On Monday, the upper low moves across
Central Kansas with precipitation shifting off to the east during
the afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch/Warning will likely be needed
for Sunday night into Monday for the southeast plains.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...northwest flow aloft over the area with
a chance of mainly mountain snow showers. Highs Tuesday will remain
cool on the plains with fresh snow cover most areas, while areas
near the mountains should see highs closer to 40. Warmer and mainly
dry on Wednesday.

On Thursday, southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the next
Pacific trof. Expect a chance of snow along the Continental Divide,
dry conditions elsewhere. Warmer temperatures on the plains. Stark

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1006 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Periods of low stratus are possible through Friday morning at all
three terminals. KALS will see CIGS around 6 kft and lowering
through the afternoon, while KCOS and KPUB see CIGS around 2-4
kft tonight with rising CIGS in the morning. KPUB and KCOS will
see VFR conditions on Friday with light winds and mid and high
level cloud cover. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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