Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

An upper level high will be centered just west of the northern Baja
California coast tonight and Thu, and the upper ridge will extend
into the Great Basin.  This will leave CO on the front side of the
ridge resulting in northwest flow aloft and some high level clouds.
The weather will be dry acrs southeast and south central CO and
temps on Thu will be well above average.  Highs will range from the
upper 60s over El Paso county to the lower 70s acrs the rest of
southeast CO, which are near record levels.  In the San Luis Valley
highs will be in the 50s with maybe a few lower 60s, and in the
upper Arkansas River valleys temps will be in the upper 50s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mild, dry conditions are expected to prevail through the next
several days before a storm system approaches early next week.
Models have come in different with how they want to handle the
storm, with the GFS remaining consistent, while the ECMWF has
changed with the morning run.

Thursday night through Sunday...high pressure over the southwest
states will prevail through much of the extended period, while a
trough slowly moves across the eastern states. This will put
Colorado under broad northwest flow aloft. Expect to see generally
dry conditions across the region during this period. The exception
may be on Friday afternoon and evening, a disturbance passing
to the north may produce a shower or two over the Central
Mountains. Near record warmth is possible Friday afternoon with
lower to mid 70s across the area. Breezy conditions across the
southern I-25 corridor will likely produce near critical fire
weather conditions Friday afternoon.

A cold front is forecast to drop south across the Plains Friday
night with a cooler day expected on Saturday. Afternoon highs will
reach into the lower to mid 60s.

By Sunday and upper ridge will shift east across Colorado with
increasing southwest flow over the region. Mixing will lead to
warming temperatures and breezy conditions across the Plains
Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach back into the lower
70s, and near critical fire weather conditions are possible during
the afternoon hours.

Monday through upper trough is forecast to drop
south out of the Pacific Northwest and across the Rockies early
next week. Models have come in different with the morning runs,
with the GFS splitting the system into a northern trough, and a
trough dropping south across Colorado, similar to previous
solutions. The ECMWF keeps the main energy south, developing a
closed low across Colorado late Tuesday.

Southwest flow aloft will increase on Monday with strong gusty
winds across the San Luis Valley and Eastern Plains Monday
afternoon. Warm temperatures and low humidity values will likely
produce dangerous fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. This
will need to be monitored. Showers will also move into the
Continental Divide by Monday with high elevation light snowfall. A
strong cold front will drop south Monday night with much colder
air moving into Colorado by Tuesday morning. The GFS solution
keeps much of the area dry, with light snow in the mountains
through Tuesday. The ECMWF has more widespread showers across all
of southern Colorado. Depending on the model solution will
determine how quickly precipitation will come to an end, with the
GFS dry on Wednesday, and a few lingering showers in the ECMWF
solution.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be quite light and
diurnally driven.




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