Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Issued at 603 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Updated for expiration of winter storm warning in the southwest
mountains at 6 pm.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

...Areas of Snow this evening then Winding Down...

Axis of Pacific disturbance crossing into western Colorado as we
speak.  Axis should cross the I-25 corridor around 03z and the
eastern Colorado border around 06z.  Snowfall should end from
west to east as it passes, save for some lingering snow showers over
the higher terrain along the Continental Divide north of Monarch
Pass. Additional accumulations for the remainder of the event should
be pretty light, generally 1-3 for the Continental Divide north of
Monarch Pass, an inch or 2 south of the pass and maybe a spotty inch
or less above 6,000 feet elsewhere, primarily across El Paso County.

All precipitation should wind down by early Wednesday with a lot of
sunshine expected.  Temperatures will still be pretty cool for this
time of year, generally a few to even several degrees below average.
Hopefully, no fire weather concerns but it may be close along the
Kansas border as winds mix down from aloft during the afternoon.
Humidities will be fairly close and the winds may be too.  Will
continue to monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Wednesday night-Thursday...Northwest flow across the region Wednesday
night moderates through the day Thursday, as broad upper trough
continue to translate east through the Central Conus. This keeps
generally dry weather in place across the area with temperatures at
to slightly below seasonal averages through the period.

Friday-Sunday...Current longer range models continue to suggest a
relatively warm and dry period across the state through the weekend,
as the jet stream and main storm track stays north of the area
across the Pac NW through the Northern Tier. Will see moderate
westerly flow aloft across the area Friday with increasing west to
southwest flow expected Saturday through Sunday, as one embedded
shortwave translates across the Northern Rockies.

This will allow for breezy and warm afternoons across the eastern
Plains, with highs back to above seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s
across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain. Breezy winds and expected low rhs will lead to
increasing fire danger through the weekend, with the warmest day,
along with the strongest wind and highest fire danger day,
continuing to look like Sunday.

The Northern Rockies passing wave could bring some light snow the
the higher terrain of the Central Mountains, Saturday night and
through the day Sunday, with the system sending a dry cold front
across Eastern Colorado Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday...Strong westerly flow progged to continue across the
region into early next week, with another embedded system moving
across the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday. This system could
again bring some light snow to the higher terrain of the Central
Mountains, with breezy to windy conditions and slightly cooler
temperatures to the rest of south central and southeast Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

VFR conditions and generally light wind regimes expected at COS,
PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, as a broad upper trough
continues to lift north and east away from the area tonight.


Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ058-060-



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