Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATE ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING
OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVING
SOUTHWARD. SUSPECT THIS IS SOME SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
IN CENTRAL WYOMING...WHERE SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL TEND TO CAP CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY PLAINS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE CURRENT 12Z 4KM
NMM WRF WERE THE MOST ZEALOUS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
IN THE GRIDS...INCREASED SOME POPS IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE WATERS HAVE
MODESTLY DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THERE STILL IS ENOUGH LOWER
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A
SIZABLE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...AND AMOUNTS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
LESS. --PGW--



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. KPUX RADAR INDICATING AN MCV SPINNING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AT THIS
TIME.

DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING LAST NIGHTS SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS DROUGHT RAVAGED PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...ALONG WITH A POCKET OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES IN
SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTY...WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS ISSUED REVERSE
911 CALLS FOR PEOPLES LIVING ON AND ALONG TIMPAS CREEK...WHICH HAS
BEEN REPORTED TO BE 20 TO 30 FT WIDE IN SPOTS SOUTH OF SWINK. KPUX
RADAR IS ALSO ESTIMATING MORE SPOTTY 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM YESTERDAYS
STORMS ACROSS FREMONT...TELLER...EL PASO...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS GREAT BASIN
AND PAC NORTHWEST AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATING DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOL AIR BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
PUSH THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...PRECIP WATERS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (1.5 TO 2 TIMES NORMAL VALUES) ACROSS THE
AREA WITH READINGS BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES...GREATEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS COULD BE PICKING
UP ON DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
MCV AS THEY KEEP MOST CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WITH STRONG JULY SOLAR
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS...ALONG WITH WET SOILS FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS...COULD
LEAD TO INCREASED FLASH FLOODING AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE EASTERN MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. HAVE
INCLUDED CROWELY AND OTERO COUNTIES IN THE WATCH WITH THE ONGOING
FLOODING AT THIS TIME. STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...WET AND STORMY PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED...

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
MON AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED
WESTWARD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
I-25 CORRIDOR MON EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND WHILE STORM MOTION WILL
BE A LITTLE FASTER AS STEERING WINDS INCREASE...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE. MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NM BORDER AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO ERN NM/TEX PANH.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AGAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TUE AS CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/K OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS EVEN GREATER
THAN MON AS 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER 50 KTS...WITH
ENVIRONMENT LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS. OF
COURSE...MON NIGHT MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUE. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY LARGE
MCS THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE KS BORDER TUE NIGHT...AS STRONG
LLJ KEEPS CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN WED...WITH EARLY MORNING COLD POOL BEHIND DEPARTING
MCS...BEFORE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MIGRATING ON TO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY
MON-WED...THOUGH STORM/RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BE LESS HERE THAN
FARTHER EAST.

PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY BEGINS TO DRIVE SOME DRIER AIR
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FROM THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...EXPECT TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST SOME MODEST
DIURNAL CONVECTION MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES MON...WITH SOME
COOLING BOTH TUE/WED AS HEIGHTS FALL AND RAIN COOLED AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FROM THU
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES. MAIN
AVIATION THREATS FROM STORMS WILL GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET
REDUCED FLIGHT RULES WILL BE KCOS. FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT KCOS AND KPUB AND DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS
DESPITE MOIST LOWER LEVELS. ON MONDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. --PGW--

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH TDY THROUGH WED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AIR MASS SLOWLY DRYS OUT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093-
094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW
HYDROLOGY...PETERSEN/MW


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