Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Currently...

Regional radar at 3 am was indicating isolated showers mainly over E
UT and NW CO extending northeast into Wyoming. Locally, skies were
clear across the region, with the exception being along the contdvd
and parts of ne El Paso county. Temps were in the 60s on the plains
and mainly in the 40s and 50s in the higher terrain.

Today...

Best moisture over the region will extend form SW CO up into NE CO.
Likewise, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be over the
mountains with a few shower and storms over the Palmer Divide. Very
isolated activity may occur over the remainder of the plains. Storms
in the mountains will once again be capable of locally heavy rain
which may produce flash flooding and rock slides, especially over
area burn scars.

Max temps today will be hot, with readings in the 90s to around
100F, with the hottest reading occurring from La Junta to Lamar.
Mountains will be more seasonable due to clouds and showers
developing by early afternoon.

Tonight...

May see a few isolated showers/storms well north of highway 50 this
evening as a weak boundary tries to move south down the Palmer
Divide, however most of the activity will be over the higher
terrain, especially lingering across the contdvd into the early
morning hours. Morning lows tomorrow morning will be similar to this
mornings low temperatures. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The broad area of high pressure aloft across the region is
expected to remain over the area through Wednesday, before slowly
sliding south and east into the southern plains and lower Mississippi
Valley through the weekend and into early next week.

Warmer and drier air and subsidence under the high will lead to
lesser chances of convection over southeast Colorado through
the middle of the week, with enough residual moisture across the
western half of the area, to work with strong solar heating to bring
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, most numerous
over the higher terrain. As the high shifts south and east, flow
aloft becomes more south to southwest and opens the door for
increasing monsoonal moisture  across the central Rockies for the
weekend and into early next week. This will allow for increasing
chances and coverage of afternoon and evening storms through early
next week. Models also continue to indicate a front sliding
across the eastern plains on Saturday, leading to increasing low
level moisture and the potential for stronger storms across the
eastern plains.

Generally weak flow aloft will allow for the storms to move slowly,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and a daily risk
of flash flooding, especially across area burn scars. Warm air aloft
and less expected convection will lead to generally above seasonal
temperatures through the middle of the week, with temperatures then
cooling back to at or slightly below seasonal levels into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The summer monsoon will continue to bring afternoon and evening
thunderstorms to the flight area. The mountains will likely see
the greatest coverage of storms with activity more isolated east
of the mountains. Primary storm risks will include lightning,
gusty winds, locally heavy rain and spotty small hail. Convection
should continue through the evening hours and then diminish after
midnight. Flight conditions will deteriorate to MVFR, IFR and
LIFR through areas of precipitation. Little change in the weather
pattern for Wednesday.

Both the KCOS and KALS sites will see a chance of thunderstorms at
or near the terminals starting around 20Z at KCOS and 22Z at KALS.
KPUB will probably remain east of the activity although a storm
is not out of the question. Additionally, KPUB may still be
impacted by nearby lightning or gusty winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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