Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 291028
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
428 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHICH WILL
ALLOW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TONIGHT.  STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAUGHT WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE
SHOULD STAY TIED TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS
NORTHERLY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL...AND LIGHTNING.  SUPPOSE AN ERRANT STRONG STORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.   DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD
MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 40S BY AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE SE PLAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS OUT WEST...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS MAY STAY
A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE A LEE TROUGH KEEPS SOME WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE WIND GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH READINGS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS AND COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL STAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LIMITED MONSOON TO CONTINUE...

IN GENERAL...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT MONSOON
FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BRINGING DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...MONDAY
STANDS OUT AS A POTENTIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR THE
PLAINS. ON THIS DAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND
TEMPORARILY DRAG THE MONSOON PLUME FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE IMPACT FROM THE SHORTWAVE COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER DAYS DURING THE PERIOD...THE MONSOON PLUME IS MAINLY ALIGNED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FEW DISTURBANCES OR FRONTS TO TRIGGER
STORMS ON THE PLAINS. AT LEAST THAT IS THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
OF COURSE...OTHER DISTURBANCES OR FRONTS THAT CAN`T BE RESOLVED AT
THIS RANGE COULD VERY WELL SHOW UP IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PRIMARY
STORM THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW TIMES DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FLASH FLOODING AND HAIL WILL BE
ADDITIONAL THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 15 KTS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...BUT
SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE MTS.  GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LOOKS VERY LOW
TODAY...SO TAFS WILL REMAIN DRY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT



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