Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 132203
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Currently...

At 2 pm, a small patch of low clouds was rapidly dissipating in and
around the La Junta area. Otherwise, a band of high cirrus was
moving towards the region from the northwest. Temps  across the
plains varied considerably, where it has been sunny all day temps
were in the 40s and 50s, while areas which were in low clouds
earlier in the day were still in the 30s. The SLV was around 40
while the mid and upper ark rvr valley (below Granite) were in the
40s. Mtns were in the 20s.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Quiet weather pattern. Northwest flow will continue through next 24
hours. A weak wave will move down in the NW flow this evening but
will be too far to our northeast to affect our sensible weather.
Later tonight and into tomorrow a weak shortwave ridge will move
down in the NW flow. Overall, except for some cirrus moving through
it will be clear. Min temps tonight will fall into the teens most of
the plains with temps around 20F just east of the s mtns. Coldest
temps tonight will likely in the San Luis valley were single digits
are expected on the valley floor. Tens and 20s will be felt
elsewhere.

Temps tomorrow will warm up 50s across the plains with most areas
reaching the mid 50s...with mid 40s in the valleys. Mostly sunny
skies are expected along with light wind. Overall a rather nice day.
/Hodanish


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Sunday night-Tuesday...Latest models remain in decent agreement of a
stronger wave embedded within the northwest flow aloft translating
across the Rockies late Sunday night and through the day Monday.
This system sends a strong backdoor cold front across eastern
Colorado late Sunday night, which backs up across the eastern
Mountains through late Monday morning. Models continue to indicate
some light precipitation spreading from east to west across the
eastern plains through the morning hours, with light snow then
continuing over and near the higher terrain through the afternoon
and evening hours. Model soundings do indicate a brief potential for
light freezing drizzle across the plains early Monday morning, but
it looks like any freezing precipitation will quickly change over to
snow as colder air works into the area, and will not include in the
forecast at this time. Monday will be a cool and cloudy day across
the plains, with highs only in the upper 20s to lower 30s early in
the morning, which look to cool through the rest of the morning and
afternoon, as easterly upslope flow increases through the day. With
the upslope flow, on and off light snowfall can be expected over and
near the higher terrain along and west of the I-25 corridor Monday
afternoon and evening, with snow then ending from north to south
Monday night. Generally light and fluffy accumulations of 1 to 3
inches remain possible along and west of the I-25 corridor through
Monday night. Further west, dry weather with at to slightly below
normal temperatures are expected on Monday, though can`t rule out
some light snow and flurries across the Central Mountains, with the
northwest orographic flow.

Northwest flow aloft moderates through Tuesday, and with a cold
airmass in place and slowly clearing skies overnight, morning lows
to be on the chilly side, in the single digits and teens areawide.
Dry conditions with slowly warming temperatures expected across the
the plains, though highs will be below seasonal levels, with highs
at to slightly below seasonal norms expected across the higher
terrain.

Tuesday night-Thursday...Lower confidence in the forecast through
this period, as models continue to have trouble resolving location
and strength of Pacific energy digging across the Great Basin and
through short wave ridging in place across the Rockies. The GFS
is now the strongest with the system and prints out QPF across all
of south central and southeast Colorado as the system closes it
off across southeast Colorado Wednesday evening. The Canadian
model brings a broad upper trough across the Northern Rockies
where as the ECMWF now digs the system well south and west of the
Rockies through this period. With continued model run differences
with this system likely, have kept slight to chance pops confined
to the higher terrain Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels through the
period.

Friday-Saturday...Again, there is a lower confidence in the forecast
into next weekend, as another stronger storm system takes aim on the
Rockies. Blended model solution brings in chances of snow for areas
along and west of the ContDVD through the day Friday, with slight
pops spreading east across the plains through the day Saturday.
Stayed with blended temperatures, with at or above seasonal levels,
especially across the plains, on Friday, with temps cooling to at
and below seasonal levels Saturday. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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