Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261924
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
124 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Dew points hanging in tough across the southeast plains though
starting to see the dry line take shape around TAD where dew
points have dropped into the upper 20s as southwest winds have
picked up. Dry line is progged by high res models to mix eastward
this afternoon with convection on the uptick across the plains.
Severe thunderstorm watch 268 has been issued for much of
southeast Colorado through 02Z. Update is to fine-tune pop grids.
Main threat may be done by 01z across far eastern counties and
by 00z along the I-25 corridor. Will monitor trends and make
adjustments as needed. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

This morning a disturbance moving acrs the area has been bringing
showers and thunderstorms to northern portions of the southeast
plains.  Most of these are expected to end by 12Z, with mainly dry
weather acrs the forecast area the rest of the morning.

Today an upper level trof will be over ID and western WY, with
westerly flow aloft over CO.  Dew points acrs the sern plains this
morning will be mostly in the 40s.  Much of the southeast plains
today will see breezy southerly sfc winds.  However, gusty southwest
winds are expected to develop over the southern I-25 corridor area
later today, bringing drier air to that area with dew points falling
into the 20s and lower 30s.  This will result in a dry line setting
up, but just how far east it will be is a little in question.  For
now will keep the best low level moisture mainly east of a line from
eastern El Paso county to eastern Pueblo county to far eastern Las
Animas county, so these areas should see the best chances for severe
wx later today. The NAM shows CAPE values from about 800-1200 J/kg
east of this line. Deep layer shear values this afternoon are
forecast to be 25-40kts, with the highest values being over El Paso
county, and then in the evening shear values are about 40-50kts
across all of those areas with the better low level mstr.  SPC has a
Marginal to Slight risk of severe, with the slight risk area being
mainly over Kiowa and Prowers counties.  Large hail and damaging
winds should be the main threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  Elsewhere, the central mtns should see some showers and
tstms today, but the southern mtns and San Luis Valley should be dry.
High temps today should mostly be in the 70s in the San Luis Valley,
with upper 60s to lower 70s in the upper Arkansas River valley, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s over the southeast plains.

By late tonight chance for showers and tstms should mostly end, but
there could be some lingering pcpn over the central mtns and Pikes
Peak region.  A front will move through the southeast plains late
tonight, bringing northerly winds and an increase in low level mstr,
which will likely result in low clouds which will spread southward
thru the late night/early morning hours, along with patchy fog and
possibly light pcpn in some locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Saturday and Sunday...A cold front drops south across the eastern
plains late Fri night, ushering in cooler air for the east both Sat
and Sun. Also, the upper low that was over ID on Fri crosses the
Rockies on Sat as an open wave, bringing widespread pcpn chances to
the forecast area on Sat, then pcpn mainly tied to the higher
terrain on Sun. At this time, the best chance for a significant
wetting rain will come on Sat. Look for high temps in the mid 60s to
mid 70s for most areas both days.

Monday through Thursday...There are a lot of discrepancies between
the extended models heading into the next work week, but the general
consensus is one of an active weather pattern as the region seems to
slip into a diurnal spring/summer convection trend. A ridge of high
pressure develops over the western third of the country late Sunday
and early Monday, but models indicate that a closed low will also
develop over the CA baja. This will help to draw moisture up into
the Four Corners region, providing for a daily chance of aftn and
eve showers and thunderstorms. Expect a gradual warming trend
through the week, with max temps climbing into the upper 60s for
the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

KALS is expected to have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. 15-20
kts southwest winds this afternoon into early evening will gust
to around 30 kts at times. Winds will die down this evening after
02Z.

KPUB and KCOS will have VFR conditions this afternoon through much
of the evening. A low stratus deck may develop and bring both sites
to MVFR conditions after 11Z. 10-20 kts southerly winds will gust
close to 30 kts at times this afternoon at both TAF sites. Winds
will decrease after 02Z and become northerly.

Isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop across the eastern
Colorado plains early this afternoon and move east, but should stay
east of the TAF sites. A few isolated thunderstorms may also develop
across the higher terrain.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LINE



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