Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 140522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NICE FALL DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH MODERATE CUMULUS BUILD-
UPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SO FAR. MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST SAN JUAN/LA GARITAS/SOUTHERN SANGRES COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 01Z...THOUGH WITH WITH RATHER PALTRY CONVECTION
SO FAR...SUSPECT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPRINKLES AT MOST AND LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS. OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS
THE STATE...LEADING TO DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG OR JUST
EAST OF I-25 BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT A RETURN APPEARANCE OF STRATUS/FOG SUN MORNING...AND ALSO
KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. ON SUN...LEE TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY
DRY LOW LEVELS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGF MOST LOCATIONS
WITH MOST PRONOUNCED WARMING OVER THE EAST SLOPES AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS SHOWING UP BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER SOLUTION BY ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AND HAVE
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING
AS THE FRONT PASSES. IN ADDITION...ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
PRINT OUT LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLING TEMPERATURES AS WELL. CURRENTLY
HAVE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE PLAINS AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS ROCKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. LACK OF STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH
LITTLE STORM MOVEMENTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS.
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD...A PREFRONAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THIS FCST PD...LOW CIGS WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB
STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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