Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Issued at 515 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Updated to end red flag warning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Red Flag conditions have been occuring this afternoon along and near
the eastern mtns.  Winds are expected to decrease in the early
evening and thus current 00Z expiration time of the Red Flag Warning
still looks good.

Strong northwest flow aloft will continue tonight and Tue, bringing
strong winds to the mountain areas. As a disturbance moves into the
area tonight, snow will move into Lake county and mainly the higher
elevations of Chaffee county and the snow should continue into Tue
afternoon. A few inches of snow accumulation can be expected over
the higher areas in Lake county with a little less in Chaffee
county. Pikes Peak may also see some light snow accumulations
tonight and mainly early Tue.  In the early morning hours of Tue the
surface winds become northern across the southeast plains as the
disturbance moves acrs the area. The NAM and GFS have been showing
some light pcpn acrs the southeast plains developing, mainly after
12Z.  Will keep some isold POPs in the forecast acrs the southeast
plains thru about 18Z.  Temps will be quite a bit cooler on Tue,
with highs in the 50s acrs the southeast plains and in the high
valleys, which is around to a little above average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

...Warm and Dry Weather remains in the offing for Thanksgiving...

Tuesday night-Thanksgiving Day...No big changes to ongoing forecast
with latest models continuing to indicate a dry and warm pattern in
place through the early part of the Thanksgiving Holiday, with long
wave ridging building across Desert SW and into the Rockies through
Thursday. This will lead dry weather across south central and
southeast Colorado, with high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
warming back to well above seasonal levels in the 60s to lower 70s
across the lower elevations and into the 40s and 50s across the
higher terrain, warmest on Thanksgiving day. High temperatures will
be nearing records for both the day of November 23rd and for the
Thanksgiving Holiday, with current records at ALS of 64F (1954) for
Nov 23rd and 61F (2006) for the Thanksgiving Holiday. Records at COS
are 69F (1925) for Nov 23rd and 70F (2011) for the Thanksgiving
Holiday, and at PUB are 73F (1925) for Nov 23rd and 76F (1910) for
the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Thursday night-Saturday...Models continue to indicate increasing
west to northwest flow aloft Thursday night and Friday, as Eastern
Pacific energy translates across the Northern Tier of States and
then continues to dig into the Upper Midwest Friday night and
Saturday. This will lead to breezy to windy conditions developing
over and near the higher terrain early Friday morning, along with
another warm day with elevated fire danger possible across the
eastern Plains, as highs warm in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Passing
system sends a dry cold front across Eastern Colorado Friday
afternoon, with temperatures cooling late Friday afternoon and
evening along with cooler temperatures expected for Saturday, though
still above seasonal levels in the 50s to lower 60s across the lower
elevations and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level ridging progged to build back across the
Rockies Sunday and Monday, with dry weather and temperatures
remaining above seasonal levels expected into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at KCOS and KPUB.
Tuesday morning a cold front moves through the two terminals,
mainly after 12Z, bringing moderately gusty north winds, and
possibly some isolated light showers in the vicinity of the
terminals. Ceilings should remain VFR. Meanwhile, KALS will have
VFR conditions as well, will fairly light winds through 24 hours.




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