Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

000
FXUS65 KPUB 241719
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...HIGH FIRE DANGER...WINDY...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...

INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE JET
STREAM BEGINS TO BEAR DOWN ON THE STATE.  A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS AS IS
EVIDENT IN CDOT CAMS OVER FREMONT PASS AT THIS TIME.  THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER
MODEL, RADAR AND SATELLITE.  THEN, AFTER NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON
TODAY, ANOTHER, STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAINLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE AS IT LOOKS A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND MORE IMPACT.  NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH SNOW OR IMPACT OVER THE MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH.  THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE MIGHT SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO BREAK OFF AND DRIFT ACROSS OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM
FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.  LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TODAY
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING COULD HAVE SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE WIND AND HIGH FIRE DANGER WHERE FUELS
ARE STILL RECEPTIVE.  A CHECK AROUND BY PUEBLO DISPATCH YESTERDAY
INDICATES THAT FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
APPARENTLY, THE GREENUP OVER THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT YET TO CURTAIL
THE FIRE DANGER.  IN MOST OTHER AREAS, THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
GREENUP TO CURTAIL THE FIRE DANGER.  IT`LL BE WINDY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY.  THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME OF THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH OR SO POSSIBLE.  SINCE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THERE TODAY
FROM NOON TO 7 PM FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS.
ELSEWHERE, STILL NOT A GOOD DAY TO BURN BECAUSE OF THE WIND BUT NO
HIGHLIGHTS BECAUSE FUELS ARE IN GREENUP.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BUT THE COMBINATION OF SUNNY PERIODS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MID 70S TO MID 80S, THE HIGH VALLEYS 60 TO 70 AND THE
MOUNTAINS 40S AND 50S EXCEPT 30S ABOVE 11000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Potential late Spring snow storm Friday night into Saturday...

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period with active weather across southern Colorado. Several
disturbances will bring rain through the week, with a much colder
storm system Friday into Saturday, which has the potential to
bring winter weather to most of southern Colorado.

Tuesday...a strong upper level shortwave is forecast to drop
southeast across Utah and northern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon
and night. Models have been much stronger with this system with
the past couple of cycles. At the surface a strong cold front is
forecast to move across the Plains by late afternoon into the
evening with a several hour period of moist upslope flow
combining with strong upper dynamics. Expect a period of moderate
to heavy precipitation from late afternoon through the midnight
hour. Cold air is somewhat lacking with this system and snow
levels will start out high, dropping to about 7 kft Tuesday night.
A few inches of wet snow are expected over the mountain areas.
Expect precipitation to come to an end from north to south by
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the cold
front with most areas across the Plains reaching the lower to mid
60s.

Wednesday...northwesterly flow will fill in across Colorado with a
lull in precipitation chances. A few showers may be possible along
the Continental Divide by the afternoon as the next piece of
energy begins to dive south out of the Pacific Northwest. Highs
will reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

Thursday...a quick moving upper disturbance is forecast to move
southeast across Colorado during the afternoon hours and bring
another cold front to the Plains. Expect another round of higher
elevation snowfall, especially over the Central Mountains.
Precipitation will develop along the frontal boundary and spread
east over the Plains through the evening hours. Snow levels will
continue to be higher, with snow remaining above 8 kft.
Temperatures will warm slightly with 60s for highs.

Friday through Sunday...attention turns to a very strong upper
storm system forecast to move across the region. Model solutions
have come into better agreement with storm track, with the
Canadian and ECMWF being the coldest. Given their run to run
consistency, and the GFS falling into line, confidence has
increased with this storm.

The storm track has it dropping south out of Utah, and tracking
east across northern New Mexico and finally into western Oklahoma.
This puts southern Colorado in the sweet spot for widespread heavy
precipitation. Temperatures have been coming in colder, with both
the ECMWF and GFS having 700 mb temperatures in the -5 to -8C
range across the Plains by Friday night. Deep, moist upslope flow
for a prolonged period is expected along with favorable diffluence
aloft. This will all help produce moderate to heavy precipitation
from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, before clearing
Sunday to the east. The main question will be what type of
precipitation will fall, where and how much. Both the GFS and
ECMWF drop between 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid. But with
temperatures as cold as they are expected to be, snow will most
likely fall across much of the Plains, especially Friday night
into Saturday morning. This would be a heavy wet snow, and with
trees having leafed out, will likely do damage, especially with
some of the model guidance totals along the I-25 corridor from
Pueblo to Trinidad. Of course its too early to put totals on
expected snow, but the potential exists for decent amounts. Stay
tuned for the latest info about this storm as we progress through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB)
for the next 24 hours. With upper level system and associated jet
moving over the region today, gusty winds will be present at all
three sites through around 03Z this evening. Gravity waves are
currently apparent in GOES-16 water vapor imagery over the I-25
corridor and San Luis Valley, indicating regions of possible
turbulence.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
Tuesday for COZ058-060.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LINE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.