Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

000
FXUS65 KPUB 292102
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

TEMPS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S...WITH MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING READINGS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT A FREEZE
HIGHLIGHT WL NOT BE NEEDED.  LOW TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S...WITH LOWER 30S IN THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY THU A WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...WITH SFC WINDS THEN TURNING EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND PUSHES
INTO ERN CO.  MEANWHILE...AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE MOVING EASTWARD
ACRS UT TOWARD THE WRN CO BORDER.  THIS WL KEEP DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS ON THU WL BE A
LITTLE COOLER...BUT WL BE AROUND AVERAGE.  HIGHS IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD BE AROUND TO JUST A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S FOR THE PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE. AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGH...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 10
KFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ADVECTING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ENHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE ON MONDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OVER THE PLAINS...HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS SEEN WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT SOLUTIONS BRING A QUICK SHOT...BUT IF THE
SYSTEM TRENDS NORTH...IT WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT MOST OF THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES. CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECASTS INDICATE VALUES ABOVE 20
PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWER 30S FOR LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE
LOWER 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.