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676
FXUS65 KPUB 011043
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Main trof axis has moved east of the area with a few lingering
showers across the far southeast plains.  These should continue to
dissipate through the morning hours.  Although there is still some
residual moisture over southern CO today...upper forcing will be
weaker. There does appear to be a weak disturbance back over UT and
this will help spark thunderstorms over the area this afternoon. But
given the weaker forcing...expect activity to be more isolated than
yesterday...and confined mainly to the mountain areas.  Temperatures
today look fairly similar to yesterday.

Tonight...skies will clear out..and low temperatures will likely be
cooler for the mountain valleys where good radiational cooling is
expected. Lee troffing across the plains will keep lows mild along
the downslope regions of the lower southeast mountains...while the
lower Arkansas river valley will see slightly cooler minimum
temperatures. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Main longer term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures and pops as well as wind/fire weather threats at
times.

Latest longer range PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings continue to indicate that southwesterly
upper flow will be noted over the forecast district from Sunday
night into Monday night with zonal to northwesterly upper flow
still expected from Tuesday into at least Friday morning as
closed upper low initially situated over southwestern Oregon
Sunday afternoon shifts into northwestern Wyoming by Monday
afternoon before shifting into North Dakota on Tuesday and then
across portions of Manitoba and Ontario provinces Canada by later
next week.

At the surface...varying degrees of eastern Colorado lee-side
troughing will be in place from Sunday into Monday evening with
a northerly surge moving across eastern portions by Tuesday
morning.

For sensible weather...will depict generally nil to low-grade
pops(favoring higher terrain locations) during the balance of the
longer term with Friday appearing the have the lowest potential
for precipitation and Wednesday having the highest potential for
precipitation.

It still appears that the highest potential for gusty gradient
winds over the forecast/fire district should be realized from
Sunday night into Monday night...with the highest potential of
fire weather concerns from Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Finally, above seasonal early October temperatures are still
anticipated from  from Saturday into Tuesday morning with near to
below seasonal temperatures then developing from from Tuesday
into next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 443 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions can be expected at the terminals today.  Isolated
high based showers and thunderstorms will re-develop over the
mountains during the afternoon...though these look less likely to
impact the terminals.  These may bring some brief localized MVFR
CIGS/VIS to the mountain areas through this evening with clearing
skies overnight.
-KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE.

&&

$$