


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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203 FXUS65 KPUB 122008 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 208 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some stronger storms along the spine of the Sangre De Cristos today; dry most other regions. - Warmer tomorrow, more storms in mtns with plains nearly dry. - Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected through the long term period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Currently, early this afternoon a few storms were ongoing across the high country, while the larger valleys and plains were clear. Temps were relatively cool for this time of the year with 70s across the plains and 50s and 60s mtns. Rest of Today... Main concern is the greater spine of the Sangre De Cristo mtns. This area will see the best instability today. This instability, along with about 30 knts of shear, should allow for a few strong storms later this afternoon into the early evening as they move down and generally parallel to the Sangre De Cristo mtns in the NW`rly flow aloft. One or two of the storms could be severe as sufficient shear and instability is in place for rotating storms. It is not out of the question to get a rogue storm over the plains, but given the steering flow aloft, the brunt of the activity should remain over the mtns/plains interface. For tonight, any activity should end relatively quickly after the insolation goes away. Tomorrow... Storms will be a bit more in coverage over all of the higher terrain as better moisture moves into the mtns, however the plains will remain dry an NNW`rly flow at steering level remains over the region. Temps tomorrow , over the plains will warm up quite a bit as compared to today, and expect temps to average about 10F warmer. Temps in the valleys and mtns should be similar to today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Overall, not much variation in the weather pattern across the region through the extended period, though there will be a few slight differences, especially across the eastern plains. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the greatest probabilities across the higher terrain. Temperatures across the high valleys are forecast to hover around seasonal normals each day. Multiple upper disturbances sweeping across the Rocky Mt region will begin to affect the eastern plains beginning on Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday...The center of the upper high remains just off the CA coast, while the west-northwest flow aloft strengthens across the northern US and opens the door for northern disturbances to drop down across Colorado. Southern surface winds across the plains will help boost temps to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains, and the high valleys remaining in the 80s both days. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities increase to likely across the higher terrain both days, with scattered activity crossing the I-25 Corridor during the evening. Wednesday through Friday...Models indicate that a cold front pushes south some time on Wed, increasing llvl moisture and paving the way for at least some isolated convection each day across the plains along with maximum temps right at or slightly below seasonal normals. Convection chances across the mts and high valleys will continue to be likely. Moore && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only exception will be for a slight chance of a passing -TSRA later this afternoon and early evening at any of the 3 taf sites. Most if not all of the activity should remain west of KCOS and KPUB, and east of KALS. Winds will be diurnally driven through the fcst period. Some outflow for storms in the vicinity will be possible later this afternoon and early evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH