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000
FXUS65 KPUB 171021
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...

SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM FOWLER TO TRINIDAD. LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE SW MTNS SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
FOG WAS NOTED IN THE WEB CAMS AND SFC OBS ACROSS MAINLY N EL PASO
COUNTY.

TODAY...

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. FOG OVER EL PASO COUNTY WILL LINGER INTO MID
MORNING AS MOIST LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL RECOVER
TODAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVIER SNOW FALL...I.E. S MTNS...WILL REMAIN COOL.

TONIGHT...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S PLAINS AND
20S ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVER FAR E CO
LATE TONIGHT WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW T/TD SPREADS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND EC REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF A CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY COLORADO...IMPACTING THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM12...00Z RUN IN THIS CASE...
REMAINS THE OUTLIER FOR THIS EVENT...AS IT REMAINS THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT...IS FASTER THAN THE GFS/EC
SOLUTIONS...AND BRINGS DEWPOINTS IN THE FORTIES...6 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THE 00Z GFS...INTO KPUB. WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN THE MOST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL VERY LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS AOA 10KFT...WHICH MEANS BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL/BUFKIT SEVERE PARAMETERS AROUND THE
CWA ARE ALMOST NON EXISTENT...SO HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE AND VERY ISOLATED.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL FIRE UP BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. I INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN
THESE AREAS AND LEFT POPS AS IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL I-25 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
COMPLIMENTS OF A 500MB RIDGE AND FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -PJC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS IN LLVLS IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REMAIN AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS MORNING. KCOS IS MOST
PROBLEMATIC AS WEAK S FLOW IS ALLOWING FOG FORMATION. BELIEVE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT ALL REGION BY MID MORNING WITH KCOS
LAST TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR REST OF FORECAST WITH
LIGHT SFC WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH