Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A pretty quiet start to the weekend for our area. Nothing on radar
this morning, and it will probably be later this morning before any
convection gets going over the mts.  Main weather player today will
be a weak upper disturbance that is currently over N AZ and S UT.
Quite a bit of lightning activity with the core of this system even
at 09Z...associated with the exit region of a 60 kt upper jet streak.
But this system will continue to weaken as it slowly moves to the
east over the next 24-36 hours, reaching the Four Corners Region
by Sun morning. Expect ISOLD to SCT storms to spread eastward this
afternoon, peaking in coverage in the 00Z to 03Z time frame this
evening. It looks like the best coverage will be over the southern
zones and far southeastern Plains. Svr parameters are pretty
unimpressive today, but strongest storms could produce some small
hail. The main threat today will be locally heavy rainfall, again
for the burn scar areas.

Temps today should be about 3-5 degrees warmer over the Plains this
afternoon based on continued warming aloft. Made some minor
adjustments upward to the forecast highs, which now top out in the
upper 80s for the Plains and 70s for the high valleys. High clouds
and warming aloft will lead to relatively mild overnight conditions
tonight. Convection may linger through late tonight over the Plains
near the KS border, but elsewhere should see calm conditions and
clearing up overnight. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

troughieness aloft, especially at higher levels, will remain over
the region through most of this week. In addition, guidance
continues to show moisture remaining over the region, especially
the mountains. This will allow for a continued scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains with more isolated activity over the
plains. At times, the guidance was indicating rather good
divergence aloft over the mtns, and this should enhance the storm
activity at times.

By late in the week, a more dominant trough moves inland and flow
goes southwest at most levels. Both GFS and especially the Euro
brings up a slug of moisture THU and FRI and this should enhance
storm activity over the higher terrain.

Labor day weekend should trend drier and hotter as the trough moves
inland  and drier air aloft is fcst to move across the region.
Wouldn`t be too surprised to see temps get well into the 90s over
parts of the lower ark rvr valley by SUN/MON if the guidance

Main threat will continue to be CG lightning through this period.
However, some locally heavy rain will be possible with afternoon
and evening storms in the mountains.  /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Expect only ISOLD storms today as a weak upper disturbance
approaches the four corners region from the west. Best chances for
storms will be over western areas will be over W CO, so will
introduce VCTS to the KALS TAF, but probability of TS at KPUB and
KCOS is too low to mention in the TAFs. ISOLD storms over the Plains
will be most frequent late this afternoon and early evening, then
will shift eastward into KS late tonight. Storms will not be
particularly strong today but the strongest cells could produce some
hail up to about penny size and wind gusts to 45 mph. VFR is expected
at the TAF sites next 24 hours along with generally light winds. Rose


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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