Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 09Z...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 15Z.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LIKELY TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP BY 15Z-17Z.  THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...AIDED BY UPSLOPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
PALMER...AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER.  FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT.  WILL CARRY SOME LOW END ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CO TODAY.  MODELS HINT AT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST CO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WY/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING WITH
BOTH OF THESE LOOKS WEAK...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERSELLING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE PAST FEW DAYS.  WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLATED
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN LOOKING RATHER HIGH BASED.  FOR THE PLAINS...ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOKING VERY CAPPED.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY QUICKLY AS THEY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COOLER
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S READINGS
OUT WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD FILL BACK IN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING DURING THE EVENING. LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.  KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

A MORE ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN.

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN PROJECTED BEGINNING
LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
INTERACTS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA
BURN SCARS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN START TO FILL IN ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AFTER 15Z AS NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS...SHIFT AROUND
FROM THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT 8-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THESE ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY TO THE EAST
OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  ONCE CIGS SPREAD INTO KCOS AND
KPUB...THEY MAY BE HARD TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH.  WHATEVER BRIEF BREAKS OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN AGAIN DURING
THE EVENING AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.  CIGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY LOOK MOST LIKELY...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS
ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.
WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ERODE LOW CLOUDS EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

KALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TO LOW AT
THIS POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE KALS TAF SITE.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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