Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017


Satellite imagery indicates monsoon plume has become somewhat
constricted as upper trough over NW NM advects drier air in from the
east. Convection over the SW CONUS is noticeably less as compared to
this time yesterday. Nonetheless a few showers were noted over
western CO with a bit more activity over SE UT. Over the immediate
forecast area, radar showed dry conditions, but a few light showers
were likely in the mtns along the divide.

Temps were quite mild across the region at 3 am as reading sere int
he 70s across all of the plains, with 50s and 60s across the valleys
and generally 40s in the mtns.

Sfc obs were indicating a weak boundary moving south with time as a
wind shift line was noted from roughly Pueblo northeastward up
towards Burlington.


I anticipate we will see less overall convection in the mtns today
as compared to yesterday as drier air aloft has moved in from the
east. We will still see scattered storms, especially over the
central mtns, but overall coverage will be less. However, there
still will be a chance of flash flooding if a storm forms over a
burn scar or the Chalk Bluffs area near Mt Princeton (Flash flooding
occurred in this region yesterday per local storm reports). Most
of the plains will be dry, with warmer temps then yesterday. 100F
readings will likely occur across all over the lower ark rvr


Besides isolated storms in the mtns, with a few moving onto the
adjacent plains in the evening, it will be dry. By later tonight
believe best chance of any precip will mainly be over the SW mtns.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s plains with 40s and 50s in the
higher country.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.Friday...Upper level high moves to the east of the region.
Increased southerly flow over the state will bring the plume of
monsoon moisture northward into Colorado. Most abundant moisture
will be over the mountains where have the highest PoPs and best
chances for locally heavy downpours. With southerly flow aloft and
drier air over the plains, suspect storms will have a hard time
moving eastward onto the plains of southern Colorado. Another warm
day for the plains with highs in the 90s to lower 100s.

.Saturday and Sunday...Cold front will moves south of the region
by midday Saturday with moist upslope flow on the plains behind
the front. Saturday could be a wet day over the plains and eastern
mountains with moist lower level upslope and a monsoon plume in
the middle and upper levels. Bufkit soundings have over an inch or
precipitable water for the plains. Storms will move eastward
during Saturday afternoon and evening onto the plains. Main
question will be the amount of instability further east for storms
to produce significant rainfall. On Sunday, front is further
south with deepest moisture in New Mexico. There will still be
enough moisture for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with the
potential for some locally heavy downpours. Shear will be weak so
main threats from storms will be locally heavy rain.

.Monday through Wednesday...Upper high builds over the four
corners region. Main monsoon plume stays west of the forecast area
and a weak lee trough develops on the plains. There will still be
enough recycled moisture for some diurnal convection, but threat
for locally heavy rain will decrease. --PGW--


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Generally, VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, KPUB) for the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the central and southern Colorado
mountains this afternoon and last into the evening. Isolated
activity may spread near KCOS by early evening. Brief periods of
MVFR conditions may occur at KCOS if moderate to heavy rainfall
moves into the vicinity.




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