Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT PER SATELLITE AND RADAR.
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
PLAINS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR DEVELOPMENTS. ALSO REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE EVENING PER LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA HAVE FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHWEST COLORADO
INTERACTS WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG)
ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON STORM STRENGTH OVER THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IS WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW...KEEPING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES 30 KTS OR LESS. DEEPER
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AREN`T TOO FAR AWAY...AS
CAPES NEAR THE KS BORDER ARE 2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR APPROACHES 40
KTS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS WHETHER CURRENT CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH DEEPER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. MOST MESOSCALE
MODELS AND 18Z NAM INDICATE STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CELLS BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE AS
THEY REACH THE KS BORDER 23Z-02Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS AREA-WIDE
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT INTO KS 04Z-
06Z...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS LATE IN THE DAY. AGAIN...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...THOUGH STRENGTHENING SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD...LEADING TO MARGINAL 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SPC SWODY2 HAS AREA EAST OF I-25 IN MARGINAL
RISK...WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY CREEP
UPWARD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AND EXIT COLORADO BY
MIDNIGHT. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRY LINE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
NAM HAS CAPES MOSTLY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 30 KNOTS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAK. SUSPECT CONVECTION NEAR THE BORDER WILL
BE ISOLATED...AND THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE HAIL. FURTHER WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH A WARM AND
DRY DAY.

.WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
KEEPING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS DUE TO THE
MOISTURE UPSLOPE FLOW. SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK HAS A THREAT FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE FRONT
MAY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASE
IN POPS DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE FROM CHAFFEE COUNTY AND NORTHWARD.

.THURSDAY...NEXT UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA.
LOOKS AS IF THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE POPS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN EXTEND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS COMING MORE INTO A CONSENSUS OF
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA...
THEN DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LOWS OVER CALIFORNIA ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...FINER DETAILS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL WEATHER. I HAVE
SEEN THE CWA IN THE DRY SLOT WITH SIMILAR UPPER LOWS RESULTING IN MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY... MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES SINCE THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD AND INTO NEXT WEEK. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MTS...THEN SPREADING EWD OVER THE CO SE PLAINS
IN THE EVENING. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME
FRAME FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO STORMS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM A WRLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE


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