Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 041612
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1012 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POP AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LASTEST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ANY CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
22Z AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MORE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND SRN NM TODAY. NO BIG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION...BUT THERE
IS STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...THROUGH AZ
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO SRN CO. SO...EXPECTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED CAPE AND SHEAR. GREATEST THREAT
FOR SVR WILL BE OVER THE NERN ZONES...GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...CROWLEY...KIOWA...AND NRN BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
SOME BORDERLINE SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND ERN MTS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVE.

H7 TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WITH
SOME DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...AND 70S-80S FOR THE
MTN AREAS. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN MCS OVER WRN KS TONIGHT SHOULD SEND SOME
OUTFLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NERN ZONES BY EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS HEAVY
RAIN...WITH THE PRIMARY AREA BEING THE MOUNTAINS.

GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...A RATHER STRONG COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...WITH DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON MONDAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE PRIME FOR HEAVY RAIN
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS. THESE VALUES MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT IF CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN CONVECTION...
MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENGULF THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT ALL OF THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. NAM...EC...GFS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE HPC QPF
GRAPHICS DURING THE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. AN INCH OR SO
OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF ALL THE
MTNS IN THE NWS PUB FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY...BURN SCAR FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ON THIS DAY...ALONG WITH THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS
WEST OF BUENA VISTA.

IT WILL BE COOL THIS DAY OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-12F BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL STILL BE MOIST OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH LLVL FLOW WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL STILL EXIST IN THE MTNS DUE TO ALL OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. ONCE AGAIN...PLAINS MAY BE
TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOL
OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE L80S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

LATER NEXT WEEK...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIF CONTINUES TO ADVECT MSTR INTO
THE SW CONUS. I SHOULD NOTE HOWEVER THAT THERE IS NOT UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT ON THIS AS THE EC SHOWS MORE W-SW FLOW AND THIS SHUNTS THE
BRUNT OF THE MSTR S OF THE FCST AREA. GFS IS MORE PROMISING AS IT
BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. I KEPT SCTD POPS OVER
THE MTNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ISOLD TSRA OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY
EVENING...IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ISOLD OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE MTS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VCTS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NW KS TONIGHT COULD SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SERN CO PLAINS....AND POSSIBLY INTO THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING KPUB OR KCOS IS LOW.
ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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