409
FXUS65 KPUB 110312
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
912 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Damaging winds expected with thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening over the plains.

- Cooler with thunderstorms tomorrow, especially late afternoon
  into evening hours; some strong.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
  expected for the long term period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Update to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire as scheduled.
Temperatures have begun to decrease since sunset, which will
help to bring relative humidity values up slightly in the next
few hours. Winds have also decreased significantly, which is the
main reason that the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire
as scheduled.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Main concern today is potential for damaging winds with thunderstorm
activity over the plains, Point soundings showing mixing all the way
up to 500 mb and a rather impressive short wave will cross the
region this afternoon. This lift combined with a very well mixed BL
up ot 500 mb will allow for plenty of DCAPE which will likely
produce very strong surface winds over the plains this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts to 60 to 75 mph with gusts potential to 90 mph
cant be ruled out. Most of CO Plains outlooked with SPC hatched wind
area (>75 mph) over most of plains.

Activity should push relatively quickly out of the region by early
to mid evening with clearing skies tonight.

Red Flag conditions will continue over the mtns/valleys the rest of
today into this evening.

A cool front will cross the plains late this evening into the early
morning hours, brining increasing LLVL moisture to the region.

Tomorrow...Thunderstorms will be slow to start tomorrow, with the
brunt of the activity expected staring very late tomorrow afternoon
and then pushing out onto the plains during the evening hours.
Storms tomorrow will have the potential to be on the stronger side
once again, but more importantly, will have the potential to bring
more beneficial rain to the region given the more favorable moist
low level environment.

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow across the region with highs
in the 80s and 90s plains.

Tomorrow evening a line of storms will move across the plains
brining the potential of strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain,
marginally severe hail and lightning to the lower elevations. Storms
will likely linger into the overnight hours tomorrow. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Friday Night - Wednesday: For the long term period, active is
still expected each day, with afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Messy westerly to northerly flow will be in place over
the region as a ridge of high pressure sits across the
southwest US. While no major forcing is expected, orographic
forcing will be in place each day, along with a brief period of
heightened forcing from a frontal passage late Friday. These
forcing mechanisms, along with moisture in place each day, will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom each
afternoon and persist into the evening hours. The greatest
coverage of showers and storms is expected to remain along the
mountains, where forcing will greatest. Like most summer days, a
strong thunderstorms or two can`t be ruled out, with frequent
lightning, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief periods of
heavy rain the most likely hazards from any stronger storms.
Beyond all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and
evening cloud cover are anticipated through this timeframe. As
for temperatures, Saturday is expected to be the coolest day,
with below seasonal temperatures anticipated thanks to the
aforementioned cold frontal passage late Friday. Then for the
rest of the period, near seasonal temperatures return for south
central and southeastern Colorado, though there are hints at
another possible cold front passage during the end of this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For KCOS..Showers and lightning have cleared the area, giving way to
VFR conditions for the remainder of tonight. Lingering gusty and
erratic thunderstorm winds related to outflow boundaries will be
possible for the next few hours, with northerly winds setting in by
around 03Z and persisting through the overnight hours. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be likely for Friday, mainly after
21Z.

For KPUB..Showers and thunderstorms remain in the area, and will be
possible on station for the next couple of hours. Gusty and erratic
winds from thunderstorm activity is expected through around 03Z as
well as storms continue to clear to our east. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be likely for Friday, mainly after
23Z.

For KALS..Shower activity is expected to remain the area through
01Z, with a few lightning strike possible in the vicinity as
weakening thunderstorms continue to dissipate. Winds will be light
and variable through much of the overnight hours. There is a slight
chance (less than 30%) for showers and storms again tomorrow, mainly
from 22Z to 24Z, though confidence was too low to include in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR